Are you changing plans for travel Due To Coronavirus Fears

@BillRM,

BillRM wrote:

Other wise shutting down a large percent of the whole world society to deal with a mild virus is crazy.

Ten times more deadly than a bad flu season is anything but mild.

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@BillRM,

BillRM wrote:

Once more who made such a prediction

You know very well that the prediction was made by an accredited expert in public health.

BillRM wrote:

it is complete nonsense.

Let's see some evidence that it is nonsense.

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@BillRM,

BillRM wrote:

Strange if you are correct there by now should be zero people alive in China by now and I have given links listing the total known cases and the total deaths by nations an China the ground zero nation only have a few thousands deaths so far

China has combated the virus with a total shutdown that dwarfs the shutdown that is happening in western society.

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@oralloy,

It's also more communicable. That adds to the problem being faced.

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@BillRM,

Quote:

Strange if you are correct there by now should be zero people alive in China by now and I have given links listing the total known cases and the total deaths by nations an China the ground zero nation only have a few thousands deaths so far

China stopped the growth of the virus by shutting down vast parts of the country.

In the US the rate of new infections doubles every 3.5 days (that is how exponential growth works). Here is a graph on the actual data.

https://i.postimg.cc/fyWkkSvb/covid19.png

In the beginning of an epidemic, constant exponential growth is expected. This is true until we start getting a significant number of "recovered" people who have immunity. So if we do nothing we can expect the number of cases to continue to double every 3.5 days or so.

Let's do the math. In a little over a month, if we do nothing, it will double 10 times.

Whatever the number of cases is today, multiply that by 1024 and that will be the number of cases in the beginning of May of this year.

This is what we can expect if we do nothing. This is why the drastic efforts to cut the exponential growth rate are so important.

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@BillRM,

BillRM wrote:

Once more complete nonsense.

Facts are not nonsense. It is a fact that COVID-19 has been predicted to be ten times more deadly than a bad flu season.

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@maxdancona,

The thing that is what most people dont unerstand is that, while its had a higher death rate among us older people, the system gets swamped for stuff like ventilators so slowing down the rate of infection is actually a boon to medical treatment and ultimate outcomes.

Its not untreatable but it is more lethal than sasonal flu.

1 Reply

@maxdancona,

And again, Bill is right that for most people the virus will be fairly minor. However for some number people, about 10% it seems it will be serious enough to require hospitalization.

That means with exponential growth, we will have around 3 million cases which will require 300,000 extra hospital beds. Once the hospital beds are full... we are screwed!

In Eastern Massachusetts (where I live) there are 10,000 hospital beds. At any given time 7,500 of them are full. There are really 2,500 extra hospital beds.

With exponential growth, you can see how these extra beds will fill quickly meaning that hospitals will have to start turning people away.

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@farmerman,

Vox has a graphic that illustrates that:

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19780273/flattening_the_curve_final.jpg

1 Reply

@maxdancona,

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

This is not similar to the 1918 flu or even the average yearly flu for that matter.

1 Reply

@BillRM,

Ten times more deadly than a bad flu season is indeed not similar to the average yearly flu.

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@oralloy,

oralloy wrote:

BillRM wrote:
Other wise shutting down a large percent of the whole world society to deal with a mild virus is crazy.

Ten times more deadly than a bad flu season is anything but mild.

Ten times more deadly when to date we are talking about a few thousands deaths worldwide.

Sorry nonsense is nonsense

1 Reply

@BillRM,

Most of the deaths are yet to come.

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so I found out we have the first case in our county - and then I read the story closer - it is in my own small town.

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@Linkat,

Keep in mind that with the lack of testing, the virus is spreading far ahead of reported cases. It's time to batten down the hatches and stay inside.

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@oralloy,

I found running this a few times helpful/interesting

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

1 Reply

@oralloy,

oralloy wrote:

Most of the deaths are yet to come.

Agree in thirty or forty years the deaths will come indeed from the old age virus but not from the Coronavirus

1 Reply

@oralloy,

oralloy wrote:

Keep in mind that with the lack of testing, the virus is spreading far ahead of reported cases. It's time to batten down the hatches and stay inside.

Nonsense as the US government for example does not think so keeping thousands of returning citizens shoulders to shoulders for hours at the airports that there is any dangerous in doing so.........LOL

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@BillRM,

BillRM wrote:

Agree in thirty or forty years the deaths will come indeed from the old age virus but not from the Coronavirus

It is predicted that COVID-19 will kill ten times as many people as a bad flu season.

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@ehBeth,

ehBeth wrote:

I found running this a few times helpful/interesting

Let's hope that people develop immunity and don't get repeatedly sick from repeated exposures.

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Are you changing plans for travel Due To Coronavirus Fears

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