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Are you changing plans for travel Due To Coronavirus Fears

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BillRM
 
  1  
Reply Sat 14 Mar, 2020 09:29 pm
@oralloy,
oralloy wrote:

BillRM wrote:
Strange is it not that we do not shut down the society for the common flu where some strains had proven far far more deadly then this virus an even the less deadly flu stains death totals match or come near matching this virus.
Quote:
While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million -- 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 -- 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 -- 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

That's nowhere near the half million US deaths that have predicted for COVID-19.


Lord half a millions deaths as if that is likely judging by for example of 2 deaths in the whole state of NY population so far. Two older women with all manner of medical conditions.

Or the known total deaths in China of 5,838 but somehow we are going to reach a 100 times the death rate of China from this virus.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

What a damn overstated threat.
0 Replies
 
BillRM
 
  1  
Reply Sat 14 Mar, 2020 09:35 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

You are not listening Bill. The fear is that the Corona virus, which is spreading very quickly in addition to the normal flu, will overwhelm the health system.

If you have more seriously sick people than you have hospital beds and ventilators... you have a serious problem. That is the issue here.

It is spreading very fast... the goal is to slow the spread so we can make sure we have enough hospital beds. Ending large crowds is the most logical way to slow the spread of the virus.




Let see China with less then 6 thousands coronavirus deaths an the US who have 60,000 plus average deaths a year from the common flu!!!!!!!

What nonsense are we being sold.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Mar, 2020 10:26 am
@BillRM,
Bill, do you understand the principle of "addition"?

The normal people in the hospital with the flu aren't going away. We still needs tens of thousands of beds for people with the flu. We will need additional beds for people with this new corona virus. The number of people with the flu has nothing to do with this crisis, they are still there.

You seem to be saying we can put people with corona virus into the beds we have set aside for people with flu". We can't. Those beds are occupied by people with flu (and cancer and accidents and diabetes and all the other things people are in the hospital for in a normal year).

The problem is that this virus is going to sharply increase the number of people who need to be in the hospital. And, public health experts are saying that our public health system is at risk of being overwhelmed with these new cases.
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Mar, 2020 10:33 am
@BillRM,
The other reason Bill is wrong is that it isn't the "number of deaths" that is important. It is the growth rate that makes this scary. The number of cases and number of deaths in China is still climbing. It has been brought down after the start of the serious public health measures

The number cases was doubling every 6 days. This should be terrifying to anyone with a basic understanding of mathematics. China proves why Bill is wrong.

- The number of deaths in China was growing exponentially.

- China started a harsh program of social distancing, basically ordering people in affected areas to stay in their houses.

- Then the rate of increase in the number of deaths started decreasing. (The number is still going up, but at a slower rate).
BillRM
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Mar, 2020 02:08 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

The other reason Bill is wrong is that it isn't the "number of deaths" that is important. It is the growth rate that makes this scary. The number of cases and number of deaths in China is still climbing. It has been brought down after the start of the serious public health measures

The number cases was doubling every 6 days. This should be terrifying to anyone with a basic understanding of mathematics. China proves why Bill is wrong.

- The number of deaths in China was growing exponentially.

- China started a harsh program of social distancing, basically ordering people in affected areas to stay in their houses.

- Then the rate of increase in the number of deaths started decreasing. (The number is still going up, but at a slower rate).


A nations of many 100s of millions population an deaths of a few thousands that are mainly focus on the elderly or those with very serious medical problems should for some strange reason be more of a concern then the Flu that every year have a death rate of many many tens of thousands.

This is complete nonsense.
BillRM
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Mar, 2020 02:25 pm
You know at all level of society an the government we are being completely irrational.

Two examples come to mind the nation wide run of toilet paper and the Federal government placing tens of thousands of returning citizens shoulder to shoulder for hours in end to check for fever due maybe to Coronavirus.

An of course the nonsense of predicting the black deaths or the Spanish flu 0f 1918 level of deaths for a milder virus that mainly cause deaths of the very elderly.

0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Mar, 2020 02:32 pm
@BillRM,
Half a million US deaths is not "a few thousands".
maxdancona
 
  2  
Reply Sun 15 Mar, 2020 02:50 pm
@BillRM,
Bill, a yes or no answer please.

Do you know what exponential growth means?

(I am pretty sure you understand the math here).
BillRM
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Mar, 2020 03:03 pm
@oralloy,
oralloy wrote:

Half a million US deaths is not "a few thousands".


What half millions deaths would that be!!!!!!!!! Even in China ground zero for this disease it is only in the thousands.
BillRM
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Mar, 2020 03:08 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

Bill, a yes or no answer please.

Do you know what exponential growth means?

(I am pretty sure you understand the math here).



Yes indeed an I see zero sign of that happening either in the US or China but our government is trying hard by for one having all returning citizens crowd together for hours.

If the public health service would care to save far more lives they could try harder to get the population to take this year Flu shots as the flu is far far more deathly then the Coronavirus.
oralloy
 
  2  
Reply Sun 15 Mar, 2020 03:11 pm
@BillRM,
You have that backwards. COVID-19 is predicted to be ten times more deadly than a bad flu season.
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Mar, 2020 03:12 pm
@BillRM,
BillRM wrote:
What half millions deaths would that be!!!!!!!!!

That would be the half-million US deaths that have been predicted to be caused by COVID-19 in coming months.
Sturgis
 
  2  
Reply Sun 15 Mar, 2020 03:15 pm
@oralloy,
It's hard to get accurate numbers right now, considering the criteria needed before testing is approved.
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Mar, 2020 03:23 pm
@Sturgis,
While it is true that estimates can be wrong. It is advisable to pay attention to estimates given by accredited public health experts.
Sturgis
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Mar, 2020 03:26 pm
@oralloy,
I take note of their regular updates. Just annoyed that many are turned away. If they have the virus and are sent away, they might spread it to others, they including some of those considered vulnerable to extreme risks.
0 Replies
 
BillRM
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Mar, 2020 03:57 pm
@oralloy,
oralloy wrote:

You have that backwards. COVID-19 is predicted to be ten times more deadly than a bad flu season.


Once more complete nonsense.
BillRM
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Mar, 2020 03:59 pm
@oralloy,
oralloy wrote:

BillRM wrote:
What half millions deaths would that be!!!!!!!!!

That would be the half-million US deaths that have been predicted to be caused by COVID-19 in coming months.


Once more who made such a prediction it is complete nonsense.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Mar, 2020 04:03 pm
@BillRM,
BillRM wrote:

maxdancona wrote:

Bill, a yes or no answer please.

Do you know what exponential growth means?

(I am pretty sure you understand the math here).



Yes indeed an I see zero sign of that happening either in the US or China but our government is trying hard by for one having all returning citizens crowd together for hours.

If the public health service would care to save far more lives they could try harder to get the population to take this year Flu shots as the flu is far far more deathly then the Coronavirus.


Bill,

It is a mathematical fact that the number of corona virus cases in the US is growing exponentially. The number of new cases in the US is doubling every 3 to 4 days. I will point you to the data, do you know how to read a graph using a logarithmic scale?

Your argument is flying in the face of fact. You have your right to your own opinion, but facts are facts.

BillRM
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Mar, 2020 04:05 pm
@oralloy,
oralloy wrote:

While it is true that estimates can be wrong. It is advisable to pay attention to estimates given by accredited public health experts.


Tell me when the CDC as the CDC or similar institutions as institutions made such a prediction.

Other wise shutting down a large percent of the whole world society to deal with a mild virus is crazy.
BillRM
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Mar, 2020 04:09 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

BillRM wrote:

maxdancona wrote:

Bill, a yes or no answer please.

Do you know what exponential growth means?

(I am pretty sure you understand the math here).



Yes indeed an I see zero sign of that happening either in the US or China but our government is trying hard by for one having all returning citizens crowd together for hours.

If the public health service would care to save far more lives they could try harder to get the population to take this year Flu shots as the flu is far far more deathly then the Coronavirus.


Bill,

It is a mathematical fact that the number of corona virus cases in the US is growing exponentially. The number of new cases in the US is doubling every 3 to 4 days. I will point you to the data, do you know how to read a graph using a logarithmic scale?

Your argument is flying in the face of fact. You have your right to your own opinion, but facts are facts.




Strange if you are correct there by now should be zero people alive in China by now and I have given links listing the total known cases and the total deaths by nations an China the ground zero nation only have a few thousands deaths so far
 

 
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