I just got an email from my rep at Edward Jones, and main points made from their corporate analysts in regard to the economy and investing is that August 19 releases indicate:
Rising initial jobless claims, slowdown of manufacturing specifically naming the Mid-Atlantic region for this slowdown, along with a very small increase in the index of leading indicators of only 0.1%.
They expect economic growth to be positive but also very weak.
The last part of their analysis basically points out that the market dislikes uncertainties and higher than normal worry. Also, they go to what would be expected from any investor advisor, keep investing but do it wisely for the long term, do not jump in and out too much, or over react. Their suggestion is dividend paying stocks that are priced right.
I don't think this offers much in the way of solid predictions, except that the economy is not improving and they will pretty much keep saying the same thing as always, keep investing and do not over-react, just as they were doing before the last big market crash. It seems to me it ultimately has to be left up to us as individuals to do as well as the brokers.
My bets are that if it increasingly looks like a huge Republican sweep in November, the market will really begin to move positively as that happens. Future hopes and confidence always remains crucial to the economy and the market, and Obama and his Democratic policies have brought mainly uncertainty and negative impacts upon present and future business concerns and plans. The negative possibility as I see it is that if it begins to move too soon, it may fool some people into thinking Obama's policies are actually working and thus will vote Democratic again in November, but if the polls begin to reverse again before the election, the market could also reverse, so this may all become an issue of timing as the market, the polls, and the election all converge.
@okie,
okie, You just love to make up **** as you post on a2k. You don't even know what the republicans are planning as far as promising anything about growing our economy. They know better.
@cicerone imposter,
Not making things up. I am stating reality from talking to other people in business. Businesses respond better to certainty and stability, and also to more business friendly parties in control in Washington, and there is little doubt that Republicans and conservatives are more business friendly. I don't need to know every exact plan that they have, just knowing their general philosophy is enough for me to be more optimistic with an expected Republican victory this fall. You can watch and see what happens and see if my predictions pan out or not.
@okie,
FYI, "business" is not the republican party platform.
Quote:While the White House insists this is a "recovery summer," others say it looks a lot more like the Great Depression.
CNBC reports that economist David Rosenberg says like today, the Great Depression also had its high points - including big stock market gains and a series of positive GDP reports. Yet in both cases, these signs of recovery were unsustainable and gave people a false sense of stability.
According to Rosenberg, the U.S. economy is in "a depression, and not just some garden-variety recession." He compares how both during the 1930s and today people have a "euphoric response" to any glimmer of good economic news.
He says in the 1929-1933 depression, there were six quarterly bounces in GDP. So far, we've had four this time around.
Several top analysts have slashed their GDP projections for 2010... down to the 1.5 and two percent range.
The president of the Chicago federal reserve says that the risk of a double dip recession is growing, adding that the government programs meant to help homeowners aren't working.
Existing home sales plunged more than 27 percent last month - twice as much as analysts expected. And new home sales also fell by more than 12 percent to their slowest pace ever.
Economists warn that a double-dip in housing prices is also just around the corner - which could slow the recovery even more.
Add in the fact that there are no jobs, unemployment remains stuck near 10 percent, and the outlook is dark.
To top it off, Morgan Stanley says a global debt crisis is just beginning, and the bond market tussle we saw in Europe this past spring is just the beginning
http://caffertyfile.blogs.cnn.com/2010/08/25/striking-similarities-between-great-depression-today/?hpt=T2
Have I been Mr Doom and Gloom? Have I been right? Is there a difference? The one thing we do know is that my position has moved from being an extreme minority position to one that is much closer to being the majority opinion.
I can understand how Republicans are using the stimulus as a political football. They want the stimulus to be reduced thus increasing the unemployment rolls and make Obama look bad. The stimulus needs to be increased to prevent more job losses.
@talk72000,
What many republicans do not know or understand is the simple fact that the stimulus plan included tax cuts that they benefited from.
We are beginning to see some of the stimulus monies being spent here in California; road maintenance is picking up again.
That doesn't justify our spending billions on our war in Afghanistan.
@cicerone imposter,
The Mid-term elections are paramount in their minds and they are going all out at besmirching Democrats regardless of the merits.
@talk72000,
What they are using is the mosque building in NYC, and other fear tactics that has no relationship to our economy and jobs. They understand that if they should win congress, they will not be able to solve this economic problem.
They continue to use "tax cuts," but are very vague about why that would improve our economy. Their argument is based on socialism; taking from the rich and giving to the poor. They never mention the increasing federal deficit.
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:We are beginning to see some of the stimulus monies being spent here in California; road maintenance is picking up again.
You can track it by state here:
http://stimuluswatch.org/2.0/
@Irishk,
Looks like $108 million for San Jose; that's pretty good.
@cicerone imposter,
Are you searching by zip code?
@Irishk,
No. I'm aware of the road maintenance going on all over the San Francisco Bay Area where I regularly travel in my car. There's a local newspaper personality, Gary Richards, who reported the many road maintenance programs now on schedule in this area a few weeks ago. He tries to find solutions for people who write to him with local transportation problems. He's even helped me a couple of times with broken traffic lights. It's encouraging.
@okie,
I know that. I took accounting
@cicerone imposter,
Can't inventory be degraded in value if it continues to be on the books for more than one year?
@plainoldme,
Not necessarily; it usually depends on supply and demand.
@ican711nm,
Pretty much summarizes what I've been saying all along about Obama's universal health care; higher cost, not much in cost savings, and rationing based on the shortage of health care workers expanding the patient load by some 31 to 34 million more people.
