114
   

Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Aug, 2010 03:04 pm
@realjohnboy,
rjb, I don't put much faith when one article makes a statement that the interest rate in the UK will be increased to 8%. If the UK banks increases their interest rate that high, their ability to compete in the world markets will become almost non-existent; people will put money in their banks just to earn high interest in a world of low interest.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Aug, 2010 03:13 pm
@realjohnboy,
That's true about banks low-balling their reserves for bad loans; many articles have already revealed them. How the banks are making billions are by over-charging on creative fees they are charging many who are required to pay on over-drafts on credit cards and late fees that have no relationship to what is owed. An example was given recently where the banks charged a customer $35 for a $6 charge, because the customer didn't have enough to pay for his coffee.

With the new bank regulations, banks will no longer be able to rob the customers in the way they've been doing in the past, although they still have some loop holes.

Banks are still active in derivative and equity trading which adds to their bottom line. They play the market for these profits that ordinary investors cannot play, because they play with billions of dollars. If they can double up all their "bets" with infinite backup of money, they can lose more often than the average trader who's cash position handicaps them. They can trade thousands of shares to earn a few dollars here and there, and with a good mix of stocks that have enough swings in their prices, the game is relatively easy to play.

0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Aug, 2010 03:41 pm
Duly noted, CI, regarding the 8% inflation projection reported on the BBC. I don't know the source. But I did file it away.
I have mentioned before that I am a player in a monthly Fed Reserve Bank of Richmond of medium-sized retailers (about 110 of us). The data of this limited group shows an expectation of price trends up rather sharply in the last few months.
Part of that, I think, is due to wages. My employees have not had raises in 2 or 3 years (I do give year end bonuses). UVA has frozen wages for 3 years.
I think that, while there are many unemployed, some employers (like me) will have to give raises (and increase prices) in order to keep my key employees.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Aug, 2010 04:05 pm
@realjohnboy,
rjb, When I worked in management, and we ran into these periods of austerity, we asked all managers to take a pay cut to save jobs. When times were good, we gave salary and benefit increases - all while saving more for that rainy day. Even gave out year-end bonus when it called for it (based on total dollars bonus fund) - which ended up to be "most" years.

Information to employees on a regular basis to inform them of our financial situation always helped. I was responsible for reporting to the board once every month on how our actuals were compared to budget. This all helped build credibility for our financial decisions.

0 Replies
 
plainoldme
 
  3  
Reply Tue 24 Aug, 2010 07:08 am
Mitch McConnell's tax cut lies
Why does the GOP get away with saying tax cuts for the rich are "existing tax policy"? Or that they create jobs? VIDEO
BY JOAN WALSH

I don't see the Park51 controversy as a mere distraction from the country's "real" issues of unemployment and economic trouble. What matters more than our nation's tradition of religious and political freedom? But it's clear to me that the "mosque" issue is this August's version of last August's "death panels" – another faux-Fox controversy manufactured by divisive right-wingers to keep us from focusing on our country's serious problems.

What would Republicans do without the "mosque" flap, if they had to vigorously defend, in detail, their economic program? Sunday on "Meet the Press," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was as preposterous as House Minority Leader John Boehner on the same show two weeks ago, blustering about having to account for how much extending the Bush tax cuts for the megarich – set to expire in 2011 -- will deepen the deficit. Just as Boehner sputtered and refused to answer repeatedly, then blamed "this Washington game and their funny accounting" for the vexing fact that protecting the megarich will add $3.2 trillion to the deficit, so did McConnell obfuscate. "Why did it all of a sudden become something that we, quote, 'pay for'?" McConnell asked host David Gregory, calling the tax cuts "existing tax policy."

It's hard to believe the entire country doesn't remember (with outrage) that Republicans under George W. Bush didn't have the courage to make the tax cuts permanent when they passed them in 2001. Phasing the cuts out in 2011 masked the enormous hit to the federal budget, and also ensured the GOP could pass them via reconciliation, with a simple majority. (Remember how Bolshevik that idea was when the Democrats proposed using it for healthcare reform?)

I also don't understand why, if as the Republicans claim, these tax cuts are the secret to job growth, two Bush terms only saw the number of jobs grow by 1.1 million, when jobs grew by 22.7 million under Bill Clinton, at the same time that taxes on the rich were higher. And that's according to the Pulitzer Prize-winning Politifact.com, which fact-checked a Bush-Clinton job-growth comparison made by liberal Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, and found he was wrong – he actually overestimated job growth under Bush.)

Oh, another McConnell whopper: He praised the Tea Party, saying "It's been entirely positive," even though of course Tea Party candidate Ron Paul defeated McConnell's handpicked choice for Kentucky's open Senate seat, Trey Greyson. It's becoming routine to see these "mainstream Republicans" lie about the Bush record, play to their fringe and squirm.
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Reply Tue 24 Aug, 2010 10:32 am
@plainoldme,
They play to people like ican and okie who continues to parrot the same messages here on a2k. They are robots who cannot think for themselves even after many a2kers have provided the same/similar evidence that GW Bush's tax cuts lost jobs - and continues on into Obama's term.
okie
 
  0  
Reply Tue 24 Aug, 2010 01:24 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Tax cuts lost jobs? Can you provide one shred of evidence or even opinion from a link, ci? At least provide a link, okay?

I could understand an argument that tax cuts might erode tax revenues, but lost jobs, no, I don't buy it at all. Government jobs maybe, but that would be good.
cicerone imposter
 
  0  
Reply Tue 24 Aug, 2010 01:36 pm
@okie,
No, okie, GW Bush promised jobs from his tax cuts which ended up with a decrease in jobs. As for links, there are many that you can look for on your own. It's a simple web/Google search.
okie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 24 Aug, 2010 02:40 pm
@cicerone imposter,
No, you made the assertion, so you provide one link that has evidence that tax cuts actually caused loss of jobs. If it is real easy as you claim, it should be easy for you. You constantly complain of statements being made here without any evidence, just opinion, and so it is totally reasonable for you to live by the same rules you apply to others.

The reason I am demanding it of you is that it is basically illogical to conclude that cutting taxes will cause loss of jobs. So if you are going to make that claim, you need to make more than the claim, you need to back it up with evidence.
realjohnboy
 
  2  
Reply Tue 24 Aug, 2010 02:43 pm
@okie,
Try Dept of Labor - BLS. The chart is CE160V.
Happy to help.
okie
 
  0  
Reply Tue 24 Aug, 2010 02:48 pm
@realjohnboy,
Ant it says tax cuts cost jobs? What about the possibility that far more jobs would have been lost without tax cuts? In other words, I want actual evidence of the assertion, not somebody's opinion. And that is ci's responsibility, he made the claim, let him back it up.
realjohnboy
 
  2  
Reply Tue 24 Aug, 2010 02:55 pm
@okie,
The graph does show that the tax cuts in June 2001 were followed by job losses. Do you agree that the graph does show that to be true?
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Tue 24 Aug, 2010 02:57 pm
@okie,
okie wrote:

Ant it says tax cuts cost jobs? What about the possibility that far more jobs would have been lost without tax cuts? In other words, I want actual evidence of the assertion, not somebody's opinion. And that is ci's responsibility, he made the claim, let him back it up.


It works both ways too - after all, Conservatives continually claim that tax cuts lead to more jobs. But they are always really nebulous on exactly how that happens; and they never account for the fact that after tax cuts, new jobs don't usually start showing up for several years, or the fact that sometimes jobs rise after tax raises, too - like in the 90's.

Cycloptichorn
reasoning logic
 
  2  
Reply Tue 24 Aug, 2010 03:01 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
I think that we may have gone to the same school as this is how I see it also.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 24 Aug, 2010 03:38 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

It works both ways too - after all, Conservatives continually claim that tax cuts lead to more jobs. But they are always really nebulous on exactly how that happens; and they never account for the fact that after tax cuts, new jobs don't usually start showing up for several years, or the fact that sometimes jobs rise after tax raises, too - like in the 90's.

Cycloptichorn


It's really very simple if you look at it from the perspective of either a business or of a consumer of business products.

The corporate federal Income tax is 35 % of Profits - one of the highest rates in the developed world. Most states also levy income taxes on corporations, amounting to about 7% on average. Thus corporations keep only about 58% of the profits they earn - money that is used to service debt and to invest in the expansion of the company. Less money remaining means less investment and fewer new employees hired.

From the perspective of a consumer, more taxes mean less spending on the products of business, and therefore less demand and fewer employed in producing the products and services they buy.

The problem is there are many other factors that affect business investment and employment growth as well. These range from cyclic factors that operate with some variation on the world economy and our own; to the availability of basic commodities and energy, ; to local factors.

In addition, business conficence and the "animal spirits" (an economist's term) that animate businessmen and consumers also are a strong factor. If folks believe they can understand the economic dynamic surrounding something they contemplate investing in and producing, they are inclined to do so. If instead, the situation is cloudy or seen to be unpredictable, they will hesitate. Right now many economists are concerned that the many new and highly complex laws recently enacted, prominently including the health care legislation and the new financial, banking & corporate regulations all have significantly reduced business confidence and slowed our recovery from the current recession. (Just the complexity of these laws at thousands of pages each can be daunting. Even the government gets confused. Not long ago the Administration conceded it "forgot" to include the $13 billion/year requirement to expand the IRS to enforce the new penalties for those who don't buy health insurance in their estimates of the cost of this legislation. Now think of individual businersses trying to figure all this bureaucratic nonsense out on their own. ) The new finance & banking legislation gives broad new powers to new regulatory bodies that haven't yet written the new rules they will enforce. That uncertainty doesn't help much either.
Cycloptichorn
 
  0  
Reply Tue 24 Aug, 2010 03:40 pm
@georgeob1,
Ah, their 'animal spirits.' That's not nebulous in the slightest.

Quote:
The corporate federal Income tax is 35 % of Profits - one of the highest rates in the developed world. Most states also levy income taxes on corporations, amounting to about 7% on average.


Ah, hahaha. This is of course before a wide range of deductions and other accounting tricks. I'm sure I don't have to remind you that many corporations pay exactly zero dollars in taxes.

Cycloptichorn
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Tue 24 Aug, 2010 03:50 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Whether you believe it is nebulous or not, it is a term long used by economists of all persuasions to describe aspects of human nature that do indeed bear on human activity. Do you deny that human nature is a significant element of the problem?

Perhaps you would care to enlighten us on the average income tax rate paid by corporations in this country. I run a business. We provide scientific, engineering, and construction management services to our customers. We pay 35% exactly to the feds and an average of about 7% to state governments. The same is true of just about every business from which you buy the goods and services that you consume.
Cycloptichorn
 
  0  
Reply Tue 24 Aug, 2010 04:04 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

Whether you believe it is nebulous or not, it is a term long used by economists of all persuasions to describe aspects of human nature that do indeed bear on human activity. Do you deny that human nature is a significant element of the problem?

Quote:
Perhaps you would care to enlighten us on the average income tax rate paid by corporations in this country. I run a business. We provide scientific, engineering, and construction management services to our customers. We pay 35% exactly to the feds and an average of about 7% to state governments. The same is true of just about every business from which you buy the goods and services that you consume.


Just about every business?

I don't know about that. Here's an excerpt from a piece which studied fortune 500 companies and found that the profitable ones paid about half that.

http://www.reclaimdemocracy.org/corporate_welfare/real_tax_rates_plummet.php

Quote:
Billions and billions
Over the 2001-2003 period, the 275 Fortune 500 companies that were profitable each year and for which adequate information is publicly available earned almost $1.1 trillion in pretax profits in the United States. Had all of those profits been reported to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and taxed at the statutory 35 percent corporate tax rate, then the 275 companies would have paid $370 billion in income taxes over the three years. But instead, the companies reported only about half of their profits - $557 billion - to the IRS. Instead of a 35 percent tax rate, the companies as a group paid a three-year effective tax rate of only 18.4 percent.

In 2002 and 2003, the 275 companies sheltered more than half of their profits from tax. They told their shareholders they earned $739 billion in those two years, but they paid taxes on less than half of that, only $363 billion.

Loopholes and other tax subsidies cut taxes for the 275 companies by $43.4 billion in 2001, $60.8 billion in 2002 and $71.0 billion in 2003, for a total of $175.2 billion in tax breaks over the three years.

Half of the total tax-break dollars over the three years - $87.1 billion - went to just 25 companies, each with more than a billion-and-a-half dollars in tax breaks.

General Electric topped the list of corporate tax break recipients, with $9.5 billion in tax breaks over the three years.

Industrial divide
Effective tax rates varied widely by industry. Over the 2001-2003 period, industry effective tax rates for the 275 corporations ranged from a low of 1.6 percent to a high of 27.7 percent.

In 2003, the range of industry tax rates was even greater, ranging from a low of -30.0 percent (a negative rate) up to a high of 27.9 percent.

* Aerospace and defense companies enjoyed the lowest effective tax rate over the three years, paying only 1.6 percent of their profits in federal income taxes. This industry's taxes declined sharply over the three years, falling to -30.0 percent of profits in 2003.
* Other very low-tax industries, paying less than half the statutory 35 percent tax rate over the entire 2001-2003 period, included: transportation (4.3 percent), industrial and farm equipment (6.2 percent), telecommunications (7.5 percent), electronics and electrical equipment (10.8 percent), petroleum and pipelines (13.3 percent), miscellaneous services (14.4 percent), gas and electric utilities (14.4 percent), computers, office equipment, software and data (16.0 percent), and metals & metal products (17.4 percent).
* Not a single industry paid an effective tax rate of more than 29 percent, either for the entire three-year period or in any given year.

Within industries, effective tax rates also varied widely. For example, over the three-year period, average tax rates on oil companies ranged from 3.0 percent for Devon Energy up to 31.4 percent on Marathon Oil. Among aerospace and defense companies, three-year effective tax rates ranged from a low of -18.8 percent for Boeing up to a high of 25.0 percent for General Dynamics.

How they do it
There are myriad reasons why particular corporations paid low taxes. The key major tax-lowering items revealed in the companies' annual reports - plus some that are not disclosed - include:

Accelerated depreciation. The tax laws generally allow companies to write off their capital investments considerably faster than the assets actually wear out. This "accelerated depreciation" is technically a tax deferral, but so long as a company continues to invest, the tax deferral tends to be indefinite. In 2002 and again in 2003, Congress passed and President Bush signed new business tax breaks totaling $175 billion over the 2002-2004 period. These new tax subsidies centered on a huge expansion in accelerated depreciation, coupled with rules making it easier for companies with an excess of tax breaks to get tax rebate checks from the Treasury by applying their excess tax deductions to earlier years and still other new tax subsidies.

Atop the list of accelerated depreciation beneficiaries are SBC Communications, with $5.8 billion in accelerated depreciation tax savings, Verizon (with $4.5 billion), Devon Energy ($4.4 billion), ExxonMobil ($2.9 billion) and Wachovia ($2.8 billion).

Stock options. Most big corporations give their executives and other employees options to buy the company's stock at a favorable price in the future. When those options are exercised, corporations can take a tax deduction for the difference between what the employees pay for the stock and what it is worth. But in reporting profits to shareholders, companies do not treat the effects of stock-option transactions as business expenses - based on the arguable theory that issuing stock at a discount doesn't really reduce profits because the market value of a company's stock often has only a very attenuated relation to earnings.

The corporate tax benefits from stock option write-offs are quite large. Of the 275 corporations, 269 received stock-option tax benefits over the 2001-2003 period, which lowered their taxes by a total of $32 billion over three years. The benefits ranged from as high as $5 billion for Microsoft over the three years to tiny amounts for a few companies.

Overall, tax benefits from stock options cut the average effective corporate tax rate for the 275 companies by 3 percentage points over the 2001-2003 period.

The benefits declined after 2001, however, falling from $13 billion in 2001 to about $9.5 billion a year in 2002 and 2003. The tax-rate effects of stock options are likely to continue to decline as accounting standards are changed to reduce the disparity between the book and tax treatment of options.

Tax credits. The federal tax code also provides tax credits for companies that engage in certain activities - for example, research (on top of allowing immediate expensing of research investments), certain kinds of oil drilling, exporting, hiring low-wage workers, affordable housing and supposedly enhanced coal (alternative fuel). As credits, these directly reduce a company's taxes.

Some credits have unexpected beneficiaries. For instance, Bank of America cut its taxes by $580 million over the 2001-2003 period by purchasing affordable-housing tax credits. Clorox saved $36 million, Kimberly-Clark, $115 million, and Illinois Tool Works, an unspecified amount, from those same credits. Bank of New York obtained $100 million in alternative fuel credits over that period. Marriot International operates four coal-based synthetic fuel facilities solely for the tax benefits, which cut Marriot's taxes by $233 million in 2003 and $159 million in 2002.

Offshore tax sheltering. Over the past decade, corporations and their accounting firms have become increasingly aggressive in seeking ways to shift their profits, on paper, into offshore tax havens, in order to avoid their tax obligations. Some companies have gone so far as to renounce their U.S. "citizenship" and reincorporate in Bermuda or other tax-haven countries to facilitate tax sheltering activity.

Not surprisingly, corporations do not explicitly disclose their abusive tax sheltering in their annual reports. For example, Wachovia's extensive schemes to shelter its U.S. profits from tax are cryptically described in the notes to its annual reports merely as "leasing." It took extensive digging by PBS's Frontline researchers to discover that Wachovia's tax shelter involved pretending to own and lease back municipal assets in Germany, such as sewers and rail tracks, a practice heavily promoted by some accounting firms. Other tax shelter devices, such as abuses of "transfer pricing," also go unspecified in corporate annual reports. Nevertheless, corporate offshore tax sheltering is estimated to cost the U.S. Treasury anywhere from $30 billion to $70 billion a year, and presumably the effects of these shelters are reflected in the bottom-line results of what companies pay in tax.


That article is a little dated; so here's a Forbes piece from last year, showing how large companies use accounting tricks to pay essentially zero taxes:

http://www.forbes.com/2010/04/01/ge-exxon-walmart-business-washington-corporate-taxes.html

Nice to hear that your company doesn't engage in such trickery; but you should know better than to assume that others do the same.

A question, correct me if I'm wrong here: Corporations pay taxes as a percentage on the profits they make. The argument is often used that raising corporate taxes drives up the price of goods, in order to cover those costs - the old 'costs are passed on to consumers' argument.

If a company runs a 10% profit margin, and taxes on corporations are raised by 10%, doesn't that mean a real increase in costs of 1% on the goods, in order to cover the increased tax liability?

I don't think consumers care too much about that.

However, lowered taxes definitely and directly lead to more money in shareholder and investor pockets.... you can see how many of us are quite skeptical of the arguments for low taxes for Corporations.

Cycloptichorn
cicerone imposter
 
  0  
Reply Tue 24 Aug, 2010 04:09 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
It's always not a good idea to expect generalities from personal experience and/or observation.
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cicerone imposter
 
  0  
Reply Tue 24 Aug, 2010 04:26 pm
@okie,
0kie, I know you haven't learned how to decipher graphs, but try hard to understand what this from the the Department of Labor means since 2000.
BTW, GW Bush made the tax cuts in 2001:
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet

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