Where is the US economy headed?

@Cycloptichorn,

Quote:

I believe this is an excellent example of the type of shallow analysis which I recently accused you of engaging in, Hawkeye

Not everything is complicated, and not every opinion has a factual foundation....can you back yours up?

1 Reply

@hawkeye10,

hawkeye10 wrote:

Quote:
I believe this is an excellent example of the type of shallow analysis which I recently accused you of engaging in, Hawkeye
Not everything is complicated, and not every opinion has a factual foundation....can you back yours up?

You attempted a logical fallacy - a Non Sequitur. The conclusion you seem to have reached does not follow from the premises laid out.

I think it would be far more interesting if you would explain exactly how what I posted relates to what you claimed... and what sort of factual data you had to back it up.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

Quote:

You attempted a logical fallacy - a Non Sequitur. The conclusion you seem to have reached does not follow from the premises laid out.
.

You point out that we increasingly can't employ people and that the typical american family is losing ground financially and then you claim to be mystified about how this ties into Americans being increasingly hostile to illegal workers being in our country?? Really? Are you that dense?

1 Reply

EMPLOYMENT HISTORIES

Quote:

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.cpseea1.txt
1977..................... 92,017,000 [CARTER 1977-1981]
...
1980...................... 99,302,000
1981......................100,397,000 [REAGAN 1981-1988]
...
1988..................... 114,968,000
1989..................... 117,342,000 [BUSH41 1989-1993]
...
1992..................... 118,492,000
1993..................... 120,259,000 [CLINTON 1993-2000]
...
2000.................... 136,891,000
2001..................... 136,933,000 [BUSH43 2001-2009]
...
2008..................... 145,362,000
2009..................... 139,877,000 [OBAMA 2009 - ?]
...

FEDERAL RECEIPT HISTORIES

Quote:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2008/pdf/hist.pdf
1977….355,559,000….[CARTER 1977-1981]
...
1980….517,112,000
1981….599,272,000….[REAGAN 1981-1989]
...
1988….909,303,000
1989….991,190,000….[BUSH41 1989-1993]
...
1992..1,091,328,000
1993..1,154,471,000....[CLINTON 1993-2001]
...
2000..2,025,457,000
2001..1,991,426,000....[BUSH43 2001-2009]
...
2008..2,521,175,000
2009..2,699,547,000....[OBAMA 2009 - ?]

FEDERAL MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM INCOME TAX RATE HISTORIES

Quote:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2051527/posts
1971-1981: minimum = 14%; maximum = 70% [CARTER 1977-1981]
1982-1986: minimum = 11%; maximum = 50% [REAGAN 1981-1989]
1987-1987: minimum = 11%; maximum = 38.5%
1988-1990: minimum = 15%; maximum = 33% [BUSH41 1989-1993]
1991-1992: minimum = 15%; maximum = 31%
1993-2000: minimum = 15%; maximum = 39.6% [CLINTON 1993-2001]
2001-2001: minimum = 15%; maximum = 39.1% [BUSH43 2001-2009]
2002-2002: minimum = 10%; maximum = 38.6%
2003-2010: minimum = 10%; maximum = 35% [OBAMA 2009- ?]

1 Reply

@ican711nm,

CORRECTIONS TO FEDERAL RECEIPT HISTORIES

Quote:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2008/pdf/hist.pdf
2001..1,991,426,000....[BUSH43 2001-2009]
...
2008..2,662,474
2009..2,798,307....[OBAMA 2009 - ?]

0 Replies

@hawkeye10,

hawkeye10 wrote:

Quote:
You attempted a logical fallacy - a Non Sequitur. The conclusion you seem to have reached does not follow from the premises laid out.
.

You point out that we increasingly can't employ people and that the typical american family is losing ground financially and then you claim to be mystified about how this ties into Americans being increasingly hostile to illegal workers being in our country?? Really? Are you that dense?

It's true... Cyclotroll is that dense.

1 Reply

I want to paint a picture of three people I know who are fighting against this economy. The names have been changed to protect them: they are innocent.

Wanda. 41. Emigrated from Poland at 19. Said she was spending the weekend with friends in Austria. Only attempted college after being here for 8 years. Holds bachelor's and master's degrees in music from one of the old Seven Sisters.

Works part-time as an adjunct at her alma mater and part-time at the liquor store. Desperately wants a doctorate and a tenure track position and is applying for the latter. On her last birthday, she didn't want to cook for herself but all she could afford was the independently owned burger place. As she waited for her meal, she realized that she hadn't been to a restaurant in 11 months. Later, friends surprised her by taking her out for an ice cream cone. "I'm happy my friends remembered me, but shouldn't a birthday be more than a burger and small cone?"

The experience made her count how many years she has worked weekends. 17 years. She still needs fuel assistance and she teaches at a prestigious school, has private students and works as a musician.
------

James. 40. Holds a bachelor's degree from one of America's most prestigious liberal arts schools. Married to a former broadcaster who gave up her career when their four year old was born. He was joined five months ago by a little sister.

Runs his own company, selling items plastic surgeons need. Often goes into the OR. Supplemented his income in 2009 by working at a candle company. Also works at the liquor store. His wife does training for retail workers one evening a week.

They own a modest Cape-style house and they too need fuel assistance.

--------------

Joshua. 30. Wife is 38. They have a five year old son who will be an only child. Both fervently believe one parent should be home with the child. Josh never went to college but worked retail and played in bands since he was 18. HE is a socialist.

He had a full-time job at a local health food store where his wife reduced her hours to part-time when their son was born. She wanted a house. "I went to the local bank, not a national bank. Even a good bank like that one had no business writing a mortgage for us. My grandmother told me she and my grandfather had to put down 30%. We put down 5%."

Despite his politics, he applied for a managerial post at a chain known for being anti-woman, anti-abortion and anti-gay. The salary would have enabled his wife to stay home. The company lied. They only wanted people for two weeks to set up the new store. He had quit his other job. Fortunately, his wife could take back her old full-time hours. She earns more than he does. He works at the liquor store in the evening and drives a cab at night.

---------

These are good people who are intelligent and goal oriented. Their lives are just too hard. It is sad that so much thought and effort has gone into lives among the working poor.

0 Replies

@plainoldme,

plainoldme wrote:

I have heard the same thing said about the Laffer Curve for years and years. Stick your fingers in your ears because this will be followed by a rambling discourse on Communists and Nazis that will be typed so furiously that the clicking of the keys can be heard around the world. And, guess what, none of it will make any sense no will any of it have anything to do with reality.

The Laffer Curve has everything to do with reality, just not to the reality of the liberal mind. I guess something as simple as the human nature principle that taxing somebody at a higher and higher rate will affect their inclination to work harder or not as hard, that is totally unreal or impossible for the liberal mind to grasp? That is basic denial of the principle that compensation has no relationship to productivity. What does that tell us about the ability of the liberal mind to reason, or to even do simple math?

1 Reply

@okie,

okie wrote:

That is basic denial of the principle that compensation has no relationship to productivity.

That should read "That is basic denial of the principle that compensation has a relationship to productivity."

0 Replies

@H2O MAN,

H2O MAN wrote:

hawkeye10 wrote:

Quote:
You attempted a logical fallacy - a Non Sequitur. The conclusion you seem to have reached does not follow from the premises laid out.
.

You point out that we increasingly can't employ people and that the typical american family is losing ground financially and then you claim to be mystified about how this ties into Americans being increasingly hostile to illegal workers being in our country?? Really? Are you that dense?

It's true... Cyclotroll is that dense.

Yes, cyclops is that dense, which is not at all unusual for most liberals, as they reside in a world of unreality.

0 Replies

Quote:

New Observations is forecasting that a minimum of one in ten homes with a mortgage today will be lost to foreclosure in the next two years and that this loss represents a staggering five-million-unit addition to inventory-for-sale.

A record high 4.63% of mortgages were in foreclosure at the end of March The Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday. Much worse, a mammoth 9.54% of mortgages are 90-days or more past due

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Why-1In10-Current-Borrowers-siliconalley-2544669711.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

This is incredibly bad, though not unexpected. THe balance sheet of the American family will not start to mend until what is for most of us our primary asset stops depreciating.

I have not seen this talked about much in the press, but between home values and retail both in a negative inflation mode it might be that we are on the cusp of the long dreaded great recession deflation spiral.

Quote:

By CHRISTINE HAUSER
Published: May 19, 2010

Consumer prices over all fell in April by 0.1 percent, the Labor Department said in its monthly report on Wednesday. The decline was the first since March 2009. Prices rose by 0.1 percent in March 2010.

1 Reply

@hawkeye10,

I don't agree with New Observations' prediction of 1-10 homes with a mortgage being lost to foreclosure. But my crystal ball is in the shop so I can't toss some other number out.
I share your concern about the possibility of deflation, Hawkeye. It is a tough thing for the media to explain to a public whose 1st response would be that falling prices is good. But falling prices for potatoes is not all that we are talking about. Falling values for assets. And falling wages and benefits - except that in many industries and countries - promises to workers can not be adjusted downward.
Government interest rates will remain low which will benefit borrowers with good credit and a bank willing to lend. But it sucks for savers who are now getting about a 1% return.
And get ready for a whole lot of bitching by old folks in the U.S. who, like me, will see social security payments not get increased for a 2nd straight year.

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

Quote:

I don't agree with New Observations' prediction of 1-10 homes with a mortgage being lost to foreclosure

Please explain.......1-10 homes is 90 days past due right now, so why is 1-10 going to foreclosure over the next two years an unrealistic number? The Obama mortgage program has completely failed, the job situation is terrible, how are these people going to be able to keep their homes?

1 Reply

@hawkeye10,

I reckon I was moving on to the deflation issue. I conceded that I have no idea how the foreclosure rate will play out. Could it be 1-10? Perhaps.
Obama's government plan for restructuring loans is not working for a variety of reasons. I was not a big fan of it from the beginning. The economist in me believes that the government can not create a false floor under a housing market that is seeing falling prices.
I think that the solution will come when banks realize that they must renegotiate the terms of the mortgages on their books to avoid ending up owning 1 in 10 houses - without any bailout from the government. The cost to a bank of foreclosing and then owning a vacant house is huge.
Again, Hawkeye, this foreclosure issue has not been on my "to do" list for study right now. I would appreciate your comments on what should be done.
Thanks.
johnboy

2 Replies

@realjohnboy,

One in ten would be awfully high for all mortgages taken as a whole. If the source somehow intended to say one in ten of those which had already been restructured in one way or another, I would consider it to be a bit on the conservative side.

1 Reply

The Obama economy continues to roar down the tracks:

http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/futures-drop-euro-continues-slide/?test=latestnews
Economic Fears Grip Wall Street; Dow Dives 376

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/05/20/new-weekly-jobless-claims-rise/?test=latestnews
New Weekly Jobless Claims Rise 25,000 to 471,000
Associated Press
The number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week by the largest amount in three months. The big surge was a setback to hopes that layoffs were declining.

0 Replies

@realjohnboy,

Quote:

foreclosure issue has not been on my "to do" list for study right now. I would appreciate your comments on what should be done

Most likely the only thing to be done is let the system work, get these houses foreclosed and resold asap. You gotta let the markets find the right price, and we can't let the banks continue to misrepresent their balance sheets by listing mortgage values as the value of the loan. The sooner everyone is working with real numbers the better.

The only alternative that I have heard that makes any sense is to let the courts rewrite mortgages in Bankruptcy court, but that plan has several major problems....the courts would be overloaded and way too slow, the judges would have a hard time deciding who to help and who is beyond help, and I have a serious problem with letting government rewrite contracts so an expansion of that practice is not appetizing. It would be messy, but might be worth doing to keep a bunch of properties off of the market, to give the housing market a better shot at a chance to stabilize around the right price.
Right now it looks to me like the market will undervalue homes for a significant amount of time, which is bad for everyone. Because foreclosed homes have often been empty for a time and also suffered from deferred maintenance, and because of the auction process the properties have unnecessarily low values at auction. This hurts everyone, this drags everyone's home value lower than it should go....for awhile.

According to Zillow I am down over 10% in six months, almost all due to auction sales near me.

0 Replies

@roger,

Hawkeye cited the Mortgage Bankers Association as saying 4.68% of mortgages are in foreclosure. 9.54% are 90 days past due. I am not sure what we are supposed to do with those numbers. Do we take the 9.54% and subtract the 4.68% to get homes seriously behind but not in foreclosure? Or do we add the 4.68% to the 9.54% to get something much more dire?
I need to understand the numbers before commenting.

1 Reply

FLASH: Senate Approves Financial Overhaul Bill
A vote earlier in the day to cut off debate passed 60-40. This vote now moves the legislation to reconciliation with the House version.
A victory for Obama.

0 Replies

@realjohnboy,

Quote:

I need to understand the numbers before commenting.

the way I understand it 9.54 are 90 days plus, and of those 4.68 the banks have foreclosed upon. The is a slight chance that I am wrong.

1 Reply

Where is the US economy headed?

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