114
   

Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 14 Jan, 2010 06:18 pm
@ican711nm,
Quote:

You don't seem to understand that Obama could have convinced the Democrat majority in both houses of Congress to change Fannie or Freddie bad loan policies, once he became president.


None of that would have changed our current situation one Iota. You don't understand what you are talking about. And this -

Quote:
Bush might have done the same, if he had had a Republican majority in both houses of Congress in the last two years of his administration..


Is no better at all. Once again, you don't realize that the damage was already done by this point, and that changing the lending behavior of FM would not have prevented the crisis. ]

Do you even know what a CDO is, or a CDS? Or anything about the financial vehicles which lead to the crash? At all? I doubt it.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Thu 14 Jan, 2010 08:17 pm
@realjohnboy,
Quote:
How do yall feel about the $100bn fee that President Obama is proposing be levied on some banks?

As I understand it, as part of the TARP rescue deal passed during the Bush administration, the President would be required to submit a plan to Congress to recover the government's investment in TARP ($700bn).
Mr Obama's proposal calls for a levy of .15% of the liabilities (read- deposits) of banks worth $50bn or more, regardless of whether those banks had received TARP money or not and regardless of whether banks that received assistance have paid the money back. Some 50 banks may have to pay the fee (totaling $90bn to $120bn depending on your source) over 10 years.


Have to look into it a bit more, but as I understand it, some of those banks paid the money back with interest. I wasn't aware the tax would be applied to banks that didn't receive federal funds. Probably the consumers who will end up on the short end of the stick.

0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 14 Jan, 2010 08:27 pm
The banking industry and a few Republican members of Congress are making that argument. But $100bn over 10 years probably will have no impact on consumers.
The Obama administration claims that this is designed to recover TARP money.
But really, I think, it is designed to ride the anti-bank public sentiment about the year end bonuses banks are about to give and the huge profits banks will report in the coming months.
roger
 
  1  
Reply Thu 14 Jan, 2010 08:43 pm
@realjohnboy,
I seldom quote bumper stickers, but here's one I did see today:

"A fine is a tax for doing wrong; a tax is a fine for doing well."

Back on topic - I'm getting very tired of these after the fact, retroactive fines, and limitations on pay and bonus. Sounds like ordering an eight dollar pizza, and after you finish, they tack on another eight dollars service charge. Had you known, you might not have ordered pizza, but too late now.

More to the point, I don't like the scheme. We said the government was sending a bad "message" by bailing out private businesses. That is, we were telling them they could avoid the consequences of their own behavior. This fine/tax or whatever we call it reinforces it. By applying it to all banks, whether they received assistance or not, we are equating bailout to the FDIC by collecting from all banks, just as if it were mandatory insurance.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 14 Jan, 2010 08:56 pm
@roger,
roger, The biggest problem with the bailouts is that it's now a precedence for future bailouts, so banks and finance companies can still manage their institutions poorly with the backup of the US government to bail them out in the future. They failed to establish controls and penalties for future failure, but instead assured them that the US government will be there to bail them out again.

The TARP funds were supposed to loosen up liquidity for small businesses and good credit customers; instead, they are reaping profit by usury interest rates and fees, and swapping of derivatives and stocks.

The US taxpayer pays twice to save the banks, and get screwed from both ends.
Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Thu 14 Jan, 2010 08:58 pm
@realjohnboy,
Kind of like a 'punative' tax? Interesting. I get the anger at the big bonuses, especially in this economy. I'll have to read up on it a bit more (just saw a headline, really) before I can participate in the discussion, though.
roger
 
  1  
Reply Thu 14 Jan, 2010 09:03 pm
@Irishk,
Some of those bonuses are pretty offensive, alright. So long as restrictions were made known at the time of any TARP funds being received, it think it is fair to impose restrictions. In fact, some such restrictions were imposed after the fact. Sounds like an odd and deceptive way to do business, but that's just my own opinion.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 14 Jan, 2010 10:21 pm
@roger,
The reason those bonuses are offensive is because the TARP money the banks received was to help them stay out of bankruptcy, and to provide liquidity in the event customers decided to make a run on the banks to withdraw their money, and to provide easier credit for our economy to maintain a certain level of stability. Instead, banks are back at their old games of creating profit by taking risks in the market place and trading in "derivatives" and trading stocks with "cheap" money that the feds provides banks with very low interest rates.

All this and paying huge bonuses to their employees while the customer takes it in the chin with high interest rates on their credit cards and new fees.

Greed is the name of the game, and the people working for this administration are giving these banks the wherewithal to screw the taxpayer coming in and going out.

I'm not sure you've noticed, but banks have been increasing all kinds of fees for their "services" while paying almost nothing on our savings.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 14 Jan, 2010 10:26 pm
@cicerone imposter,
this is the kind of thing that is driving the revolution to overthrow the establishment. It is proof that they system no longer works, thus they system must be replaced. The teabaggers are but the first wave of the rebellion.
0 Replies
 
roger
 
  1  
Reply Thu 14 Jan, 2010 10:43 pm
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:

I'm not sure you've noticed, but banks have been increasing all kinds of fees for their "services" while paying almost nothing on our savings.


Haven't noticed the fees - yet. I have been noticing the returns on savings. Definately. There was a brief period in the last quarter when 1 year CDs were paying almost double the rate of 6 month CDs. That spread has diminished to almost nothing. That probably signifies anticipitated continued low interest rates. I'm not sure if this also anticipates low inflation. I have noticed an upward trend on gasoline at the pump, but not sure that is a reliable indicator, either.

Government Motors seems to be getting their emphasis back on light trucks. Are they expecting low priced fuel, or more bailouts?
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 14 Jan, 2010 11:09 pm
@roger,
I wouldn't guage inflation by gasoline prices; it's more based on supply and demand, the supply controls by OPEC, and the refiners.

The only reason inflation has been sitting in the background is for several reasons. Here are my opinions; a) cash is now king, and money is not easy to get, b) the shortage is created because wages are being contained, and work hours are being reduced, c) credit is difficult to get, d) consumer spending is decreasing as more people lose their jobs, and people increase their savings, and e) the world economy is also struggling.

With the contraction of the world economy, we can find more good prices on consumers goods, and the entertainment/travel industries.

As a matter of fact, GM or Ford is planning to again build big trucks. I forgot where I read that, but it was recent.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 14 Jan, 2010 11:11 pm
@roger,
Light trucks are an okay market in a high-fuel price environment; trucks are a necessity for a huge segment of our country.

I've read that the Volt is coming in well in reviews and that the price may be cheaper than they originally thought. That would be some welcome good news for GM.

If GM hangs on and is still in biz 30 or 50 years from now, do you think people will still be mad that we bailed them out?

Cycloptichorn
okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 14 Jan, 2010 11:59 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Light trucks are an okay market in a high-fuel price environment; trucks are a necessity for a huge segment of our country.
Cycloptichorn

Interesting you now endorse light trucks, now that Obama is running the company that is producing them. Strange how opinions change so fast!
okie
 
  1  
Reply Fri 15 Jan, 2010 12:01 am
@roger,
roger wrote:

Some of those bonuses are pretty offensive, alright. So long as restrictions were made known at the time of any TARP funds being received, it think it is fair to impose restrictions. In fact, some such restrictions were imposed after the fact. Sounds like an odd and deceptive way to do business, but that's just my own opinion.

They are not offensive however if they are being paid to the executives of the corrupt Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Apparently that is the case anyway, as we never hear Obama mention those.
0 Replies
 
roger
 
  1  
Reply Fri 15 Jan, 2010 12:12 am
@Cycloptichorn,
I don't know your region, Cyclo. Around here, about 80% (I've actually counted) of the vehicles at traffic lights are light trucks, vans, and SUVs. When prices hit $4.00/gal, the percentages were almost reversed, which tells me about how much light truck usage is essential for business use. Keep in mind that this is oil and gas country with fairly high business use of light trucks.

I think the welcome news for GM is in the form of further assistance to GMAC. Another 'cash for clunkers' wouldn't hurt them a bit, either, especially if the mileage restrictions are relaxed a bit.

CI, you are right. Fuel prices are not always a result of inflation. In fact, in '07, I believe them to be a cause of inflation.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 15 Jan, 2010 10:53 am
@okie,
okie wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Light trucks are an okay market in a high-fuel price environment; trucks are a necessity for a huge segment of our country.
Cycloptichorn

Interesting you now endorse light trucks, now that Obama is running the company that is producing them. Strange how opinions change so fast!


I've never been against light trucks. I have family in the ranching business in TX and they can't use any other kind of vehicle (except for heavy trucks). When the gas prices all shot up a few years ago, light Toyota pickups are what they turned to buying. Can't run a ranch on a Prius, and that guarantees that there will be a truck market in America for some time to come.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 15 Jan, 2010 11:33 am
About inflation:
Quote:
Consumers are squeezed as inflation outpaces wages
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer Martin Crutsinger, Ap Economics Writer 12 mins ago

WASHINGTON " American families were squeezed last year as their inflation-adjusted weekly wages fell 1.6 percent " the sharpest drop since 1990 " even as consumer prices rose only modestly.

Their spending power sank in the face of falling wages, job losses and higher prices for energy, medical care and education. Slack pay and scarce job creation are slowing consumer spending, hindering the economy's ability to mount a strong recovery.

Overall consumer prices rose 2.7 percent last year, the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index showed Friday. A surge in energy prices last year offset the biggest drop in food costs in nearly a half century.

Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, rose 1.8 percent for the 12 months ending in December. It matched the 1.8 percent rise in core inflation in 2008. Both gains were the smallest since a 1.1 percent rise in 2003.

For December, the CPI rose a modest 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, prices were also up just 0.1 percent last month.

Also Friday, the Federal Reserve said industrial production rose 0.6 percent in December as unusually cold weather helped energy utilities offset a small drop in manufacturing. It was the sixth straight monthly gain in production. But the mixed picture shows the economic recovery remains tepid, as consumers and businesses spent too little to spur the production of more factory goods.

The 2.7 percent rise in overall consumer prices for 2009 followed a 0.1 percent increase in 2008, which had been the smallest gain in more than a half century.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Fri 15 Jan, 2010 08:10 pm
Good evening.
This afternoon on NPR's All Things Considered was an 8+ minute interview with Joseph Stigtlitz. He is a Nobel laureate in economics now at Columbia. He served in the Clinton administration and was also at the World Bank.
His new book, Freefall, talks about the financial meltdown and the steps that were taken and need to be taken.
I agree with some, perhaps most of his analysis, but have my doubts about aspects of it.
I wonder if anyone here is willing to invest 8 minutes of time to listen to the interview, make some notes and then perhaps to comment.
I realize it is more fun to hurl one-line insults at each other but I look forward to hearing a thoughtful response from someone.
NPR.ORG is the site.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 15 Jan, 2010 09:03 pm
@realjohnboy,
Good evening, rjb. I listened, and here's my take on Stiglitz. The segment begins with Geithner talking about our "economy growing, and building a foundation for growth." Stiglitz however criticizes the fact that Geithner's growth doesn't have sufficient job growth of 150,000 jobs every month which is determined as "normal." Stiglitz also says the government should be planning another stimulus plan, because under the current situation, all levels of government are losing tax revenue, and it will become more "marked" without it. They than talked about how the government is helping banks with low interest rates, but not the consumers. Stiglitz says the government is failing the American consumer with the emphasis in helping banks and not the home owners. His recommendation is to help restructure mortgage loans, and gave an example of a $300,000 loan. His recommendation is to help the home owner restructure the loan so that $100,000 portion will have a lower interest rate, say from 5 to 6% down to 2%. This will reduce the mortgage payment by 2/3ds for the home owner directly, because the banks aren't doing this. The reason Washington DC does more for banks is because banks and finance companies have five lobbyists for every congressman in Washington (and consumers have none).

The mortgage crisis was precepitated by predatory lending practices by banks who should have known better than the first time home buyer. Most believed that the banks knew what they were doing, but many of the first time home buyers didn't have a clue.

There's been many bank crisis both in the US and world wide. The S&Ls were saved when the government pumped some $100 billion into them to rescue them. Mexico, Thailand, Korea, Russia, and many other countries also had their governments intervene in their bank crisis, but when they had their crisis, our government told them not to rescue them, and to let them go bankrupt. My comment: The term for that is "hypocrisy."
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Fri 15 Jan, 2010 09:12 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Thanks, Tak. I appreciate your taking time and notes.
Your summary of the interview is excellent.
But it is bedtime for me. See yall tomorrow.
0 Replies
 
 

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