114
   

Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
roger
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Jul, 2009 05:00 pm
Looks like th economy is getting ready to tank - again. I just drove by a gas station, and regular was priced at $2.39. Diesel, however, was down to $2.19. Need I say more?
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Jul, 2009 05:07 pm
@roger,
roger wrote:

Looks like th economy is getting ready to tank - again. I just drove by a gas station, and regular was priced at $2.39. Diesel, however, was down to $2.19. Need I say more?


Well the last time that happened, the Nasdaq took a huge hit. Might want to rotate any investments out of there for the next week or two, and then get back in when the speculators get back into the oil futures market.

I wish I had a crystal ball to know how to time that just right.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Jul, 2009 05:17 pm
@Foxfyre,
Foxie, Speculators watch the market every day, and play the movements up and down.
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Jul, 2009 05:20 pm
@Foxfyre,
Well--I think a major problem is millions of people driving by gas stations and taking notice of the prices bearing in mind what a privilege it is to have gas and cars and roads and repair garages and rescue services and in-car entertainment and electric windows and road signs and arrows on the tarmac for guidance and excuses to moan and groan.

It gives me the impression that it is impossible to make people contented.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Jul, 2009 05:24 pm
@spendius,
Over to you, Foxfyre, for a response to that. I am still recovering from my sig line from spendius.
roger
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Jul, 2009 05:40 pm
@realjohnboy,
I think Spendi is right, as is a stopped clock - twice a day.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Jul, 2009 05:48 pm
@roger,
Upon a bit of reflection, I think I know where Spendi's head is at. I don't totally disagree with his thesis.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Jul, 2009 06:17 pm
Quote:
Could our long national nightmare be over? The economic contraction, this Great Recession, began in December 2007, and there's no apparent end in sight. As the unemployment rate has spiked, analysts have thrown cold water on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's March sighting of "green shoots." The stock market's spring rally has fizzled.

But in this season of doubt, I'm prepared to declare that the recession is really, most probably over. Why? Well, it's not because the economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal believe it'll end in this quarter. (These guys wouldn't know an economic inflection point if it hit them upside the head. All through 2008, when the economy was contracting, they projected growth for the year.)

http://www.slate.com/id/2222742/

Interesting
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Jul, 2009 07:02 pm
@hawkeye10,
All the current negative and positive news are a mixed bag, and I wouldn't put too much confidence into these news reports just now. At the very least, I'd wait a few more months to get a feel for actual trends on a) consumer confidence and spending, b) reversal on job losses, c) better credit availability, and d) business profit. It would be great if the stimulus plan spending begins to show up in our economy.

However, I do believe our economy seems to have stabilized a little to the point where more improvements in home construction and sales will show increases for the remainder of this summer.

Patience is the key.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Jul, 2009 07:08 pm
@cicerone imposter,
We primed the pump with several trillion in cash and guaranties, I should hope that we are about to get positive GDP change. However, I see nothing that will address the job situation, or alleviate the pain from having misallocated resources in our economy over decades.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Jul, 2009 07:39 pm
@hawkeye10,
If we consider what our country did during WWII to build our military complex with deficit spending that far exceeded our GDP, the current spending for our country's security is peanuts.

What the media keep pounding into the public mind is the huge deficit spending by Obama during the first half of this year that now increased our deficit by over a trillion dollars. Yes, those a huge numbers for sure, but a good percentage of the spending is to help Americans with shelter and food by extending unemployment insurance, food stamps, and assisting homeowners keep their homes.

The way I view this spending is two-fold; 1) the spending actually helps Americans and their families/children, and 2) the alternative is unthinkable. It has also slowed down the landslide of our economy which otherwise would have slid into a high blown depression. That would have created more of a burden on our government with fewer workers paying taxes of any kind.

I do disagree with all the other extensions of social programs that could have waited until our economy improved.

The stimulus plan approved last February has yet to take real effect with creating jobs from the spending on our infrastructure which should take effect during this last half of the year and into next year. We should see some improvement in job creation.

When the government spends $1, the actual effect on our economy is many-fold, because money circulates from one business to the next. It has a cumulative effect that not only helps to stabilize our economy, but will eventually create the conditions to support it.

When a consumer spends $10 at the grocers, that helps the store's employees keep their jobs, and they in turn pay payroll taxes. All their suppliers also have somebody to purchase their goods which also supports the factories that make the products, and also the people who transport those products. This is a very simplified explanation of how money circulates to become an engine for the whole economy.

Many people still make pretty decent salaries and benefits in our country; they are the foundation on which we can grow our economy if things are done properly. Homes selling in the million dollar range are still active in our area. More people are taking advantage of travel deals being offered by travel companies today; I tried to make reservations for a cruise along the Norwegian coast for September, and most were already sold out.

As signs of an improvement in our economy becomes more prevalent, people will again spend their money as confidence increases. I was really amazed that we changed from a negative savings rate to over 7% in just one year.

Have faith.
okie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Jul, 2009 08:48 pm
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:

When a consumer spends $10 at the grocers, that helps the store's employees keep their jobs, and they in turn pay payroll taxes. All their suppliers also have somebody to purchase their goods which also supports the factories that make the products, and also the people who transport those products. This is a very simplified explanation of how money circulates to become an engine for the whole economy.

Brilliant, ci! You must have read a book about the economy once upon a time?
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Jul, 2009 09:18 pm
@okie,
No, that's economics 101 that you never learned. What you claim are based on economics 101 isn't even close.
okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 15 Jul, 2009 09:02 am
@cicerone imposter,
So if I understand your little scenario, what if the consumer only had $9 after paying the government a dollar more in taxes, and then all the money flowing through the chain would therefore be reduced, thus reducing the economic output. The government would also spend the money, but more of it would be wasted than otherwise, thus the economic output might suffer to an extent of somewhere between maybe 1 to 10%, but even 2% would then cause a huge slowdown of tax revenue, causing an Obama type politician to raise taxes instead of cutting spending, which only perpetuates the self destruct cycle. Hmmmm, ci, that could be happening right now? Have you considered that possibility? Fact is, the deficit is being fueled greatly by slowdown of the economy, reducing tax revenue. This seems to confirm the Laffer Curve, does it not? Did you also learn that in Econ 101, or you could even learn that in Math 101 or Pshycology 101. Or Okie Farming 101, where farming teaches one lots of things, cause and effect, and so forth. The principles are not complicated. Get out of your ivory tower in California and learn something.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 15 Jul, 2009 09:45 am
@okie,
okie, Here again, your perception of taxation and the economy is based on your ignorance. As proof, many developed countries have higher taxes than the US, and often times their economy has provided a better standard of living than ours.

You often said that corporate tax rates were the highest, but failed to understand that 60% of businesses don't pay any taxes.

Ignorance - as usual.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 15 Jul, 2009 11:43 am
@okie,
Quote:
Fact is, the deficit is being fueled greatly by slowdown of the economy, reducing tax revenue. This seems to confirm the Laffer Curve, does it not?

No, it doesn't confirm the Laffer curve.
The Laffer curve is based on the change in tax rate affecting the revenues.
The tax RATE hasn't changed. So, if anything it would disprove the Laffer Curve since it shows revenues change without a change in the rate.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 15 Jul, 2009 01:37 pm
From Reuters:
Quote:

U.S. industrial output appears on the mend
Reuters

Related Quotes Symbol Price Change
^DJI 8,599.59 +240.10
^GSPC 930.77 +24.93
^IXIC 1,857.67 +57.94

By Alister Bull Alister Bull " Wed Jul 15, 12:32 pm ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) " Data released on Wednesday suggested the U.S. recession might be loosening its grip, although analysts cautioned recovery was likely to be long and slow.

U.S. industrial output declined at a slower pace in June and a key regional U.S. factory survey posted its strongest reading in a year this month. Another report showed core U.S. consumer prices edged up at a moderate pace in June, providing further evidence that the U.S. recession was not pushing the country toward a Japan-style deflation and stagnation.

"We have no doubt that the post-Lehman collapse in output is over ... but a recovery is still a long way off," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 15 Jul, 2009 02:00 pm
@cicerone imposter,
I got home this afternoon and noticed how the markets were rallying strongly. Each index is up around 3% for the day. I went snooping around the financial press sites and noticed what, to me, were potentially somewhat positive news (how's that for a lukewarm assessment?). It is far too early to get excited.
Prices rose, but if we strip out increases in gas, there is no sign yet of inflation. Yet.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 15 Jul, 2009 02:14 pm
@realjohnboy,
I agree it's still too early to determine whether we have weathered the storm. We need a few more months of good news, but by then every tom, dick and harry would know our economy is on the mends.

I sold my money market funds a couple of weeks ago on June 18, and purchased three new funds spread evenly across the board to see how each performs. I figured it was about as low as the market will go, but last week gave me a little indigestion! LOL

I usually time these things pretty well; we shall see.

0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Jul, 2009 10:41 am
@parados,
parados wrote:

Quote:
Fact is, the deficit is being fueled greatly by slowdown of the economy, reducing tax revenue. This seems to confirm the Laffer Curve, does it not?

No, it doesn't confirm the Laffer curve.
The Laffer curve is based on the change in tax rate affecting the revenues.
The tax RATE hasn't changed. So, if anything it would disprove the Laffer Curve since it shows revenues change without a change in the rate.

You forgot one fact, or part of the equation. Tax rates do affect economic output. Do you wish to deny that fact, Parados? To deny that tax rates affect businesses, is to deny that any expense or cost of doing business affects businesses. You are essentially saying you can sell just as many widgets, regardless of the price you charge for them. That is of course utterly ridiculous, and utterly and totally illogical.

Nobody here is claiming tax rates are the only cost of doing business, but it is one cost. It is definitely one value that belongs in the equation, is in the equation, and will always be in the equation. Anybody that tries to claim otherwise is just, well, just nuts.

Even Obama has at times admitted tax rates affect the economy. Grudgingly of course.

But to suggest that changing revenues without changing tax rates disproves the Laffer curve, unbelievable, nobody has ever claimed that. Are you a nut? Tax rates are but one variable among many, that must be added up to form the equation, wherein tax revenues result. You can keep tax rates static, while other factors change, and revenues change, but you can also keep other things static or watch other things stay static, then change rates, and revenues will also be affected.
 

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