114
   

Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 19 Feb, 2009 10:03 pm
@okie,
Quote:
mm, exactly right. Freedom includes the freedom to fail. Capitalism not only includes profits, which are characterized as greedy by the likes of cyclops, but it also includes losses. Profits and losses result into a constant adjustment and refinement of goods and services, weeding out the inferior products and providers of those products. Without allowing failure, you eliminate one of the big reasons why the free market works so well.

Thomas Sowell's Basic Economics book explains all of this so well. If only Obama and the entire Congress would read the book, and believe the obvious common sense of it, we would have some hope of returning sanity to this country. As it is, we are committing national suicide by going the way we are going. Obama's stimulus plan ignores the problems and continues the same old failed policies that got us here.


exactly right, but you know right that if Obama ever gets around to leading the charge to fix problems you ain't going to like his solutions. However, I am with you in not seeing the point of applying some very expensive band-aids to big bleeders. A more comprehensive and radical solution is required.
genoves
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Feb, 2009 12:40 am
@okie,
Re: farmerman (Post 3576441)
I think you are incorrect, farmerman. First of all, it is undeniable that when anyone says the word-STIMULUS-the answer is OBAMA. If,as you say, the stimulus works, then the Democrats will prosper, but you must keep several things in mind.

l. The Congressional Budget Office does not agree with Obama's estimate of jobs to be gained after this incredible spending spree gets into the country---

2.The 2010 elections will be coming up soon. Campaigning will begin in earnest in Jan. 2010,less than a year away. The American people are impatient and largely uninformed. If the Stock Market does not recover by the beginning of 2010 and if 401K's are still in the toilet by Jan. 2010, the Democrats might well find themselves where Clinton found himself in 2004.

US Federal Reserve lowers forecast for US economy| February 19, 2009
Article from: Dow Jones Newswires
CITING a "continued sharp contraction in real economic activity," the Federal Open Market Committee says it is expecting gross domestic product to contract by up to 1.3 per cent in 2009, a larger drop than it had forecast in October.

US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to the National Press Club in Washington. Picture: Bloomberg
The FOMC is now projecting the economy will drop anywhere from 0.5 per cent to 1.3 per cent in 2009. Back in October, members were more sanguine, projecting a range of a 0.2 per cent fall to an increase of 1.1 per cent.

That contraction would be followed by GDP growth of 2.5 per cent to 3.3 per cent in 2010 and growth of 3.8 per cent to 5 per cent in 2011, minutes of the FOMC's latest meeting show. The FOMC last met on January 27 and January 28. On a longer-term basis, the committee is expecting GDP growth of between 2.5 per cent and 2.7 per cent.

"Participants generally expected that strains in financial markets would ebb only slowly and hence that the pace of recovery in 2010 would be damped," the minutes said.

The Federal Reserve typically has provided projections for output growth, unemployment and inflation for three-year periods, but it is extending the length of its projections. Longer-term forecast horizons now could span five to six years, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech.

The Fed's latest projections show the FOMC expects unemployment this year could rise as high as 8.8 per cent, higher than its October projection of 7.1 per cent to 7.6 per cent. January's unemployment rate hit 7.6 per cent, according to Labour Department.

Under the Fed's forecasts, unemployment rates would fall to between 8 per cent and 8.3 per cent in 2010 and to between 6.7 per cent and 7.5 per cent in 2011, according to the projections, which are higher than the Fed's October estimates. Unemployment on a longer-term basis is expected to hit between 4.8 per cent and 5 per cent.

"Participants anticipated that labour market conditions would deteriorate substantially further over the course of this year, and nearly all expected that unemployment would still be well above its longer-run sustainable rate at the end of 2011," the minutes said.

The Fed's forecast shows core inflation is expected to fall to between 0.9 per cent to 1.1 per cent this year and could contract further in the coming years. The Fed in October expected 2009 core inflation of between 1.5 per cent and 2 per cent.

Core inflation is expected to be between 0.8 per cent and 1.5 per cent in 2010 and 0.7 per cent to 1.5 per cent in 2011. No longer-term estimate for core inflation was provided.

"FOMC participants viewed the outlook for economic activity and inflation as having weakened significantly since last October, when their last projections were made," the minutes said.

Separately, the Fed said in the minutes that FOMC members saw no indication that the housing sector was beginning to stabilise. Some members expressed concern that the commercial real-estate sector could deteriorate sharply in the months ahead. Members expected rapid contraction in categories of business investment to continue in coming quarters.

Looking ahead, FOMC members anticipated tax cuts and other elements of the proposed fiscal stimulus package would beef up incomes and elevate consumer spending, though the magnitude of the spur was "far from clear".

"For example, unless the cuts were clearly perceived to be permanent, the boost to consumer spending might prove short-lived, as was the case with the tax rebates distributed in the spring of 2008," the minutes said

END OF QUOTE

Now,Farmerman--Please tell me how this can be!! Is the Fed. wrong? How could the Dow Jones keep going down down down and how could the FED.give such a gloomy forecast for 2009.

The stimulus package has passed!

Obama is a charismatic leader!

How could the Dow keep falling and how could the Fed.make such gloomy predictions for the future?

Are they trying to sabotage Obama???
0 Replies
 
genoves
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Feb, 2009 12:44 am
Is it possible that Obama is just a flim-flam man? He issues a stimulus package and a housing rescue and the Fed says that they are revising the outlook for the economy yesterday. The revision says the gdp for 2009 will be even lower than their last estimate( see previous post for details)..

The Dow is still falling. It lost 90 points today.

How can this be? Where is the people's enthusiasm for the Obama legislation that will get us out of this economic mess. Where is the confidence that we will be led out of the desert by the Messiah????
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Feb, 2009 09:43 am
@hawkeye10,
The problem we have now, hawkeye, and I think it is almost past fixing, there are simply too many people out there that are not paying income tax, that frankly do not care about the health of the economy and business, wall street, and all of that, they are now being placated by the thuggery that has taken over Washington D.C., the people that are intent up0n taking from the producers to give to the disenfranchised, the people that have not studied hard, have not worked hard, and that have been sitting on their behinds or have been irresponsible with what work and study they have done for themselves. Meanwhile, our educational system has turned out people that are simply ignorant of the dangers of dictators and thugs that will promise to give anything to anybody for a vote. The country is unraveling at a faster pace than I thought possible.

Admittedly, I am pessimestic, maybe overly so today, but are there enough of the silent majority, the working people, the producers, the citizens of this country, to see the light and turn it around, I don't know. It will take people that won't vote for their own right hip pocket tomorrow, but rather on principle, and we now have an entire country that has largely grown up on instant gratification. The answer is blowing in the wind.
cicerone imposter
 
  0  
Reply Fri 20 Feb, 2009 10:52 am
@okie,
okie, Your assumption that the poor does not care whether our economy goes into the dumps is unfounded and stupid. Because of our bad economy, demand at soup kitchens have increased, and donations have dropped. Think again, if you are capable - which I highly doubt.
genoves
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Feb, 2009 05:22 pm
@cicerone imposter,
How could this be?The Messiah went on the hill divided the soup into containers and there was enough for everyone. At least that's what I was told would happen when Obama became President.
0 Replies
 
genoves
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Feb, 2009 05:25 pm
@okie,
Of course, they have not studied hard or worked hard,Okie. The culture tells them that they are victims and that they deserve to be paid by the funds of the government( our funds of course). The culture they are in tells them that studying is a fool's game and that the real goal is round ball. I think Obama agrees.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Feb, 2009 06:53 pm
@okie,
Quote:
)
The problem we have now, hawkeye, and I think it is almost past fixing, there are simply too many people out there that are not paying income tax, that frankly do not care about the health of the economy and business, .......


no there is not, the majority still are good honest people who believe in playing by the rules and rewarding those who deserve to be rewarded. The problem is that this country has been hijacked by special interest minority groups, be it the wealthy, gays, corporate leadership and so forth. The solution is for the majority to take America back. If this were to happen the vote would once again rule the day instead of the exchange of money, and the courts would stop trying to change America into something that most Americans don't want it to be.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Feb, 2009 08:41 pm
@hawkeye10,
In okie's eyes, everybody else is a crook, lazy, and just look for the government to pay their way.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Feb, 2009 08:48 pm
@hawkeye10,
hawkeye10 wrote:

Quote:
)
The problem we have now, hawkeye, and I think it is almost past fixing, there are simply too many people out there that are not paying income tax, that frankly do not care about the health of the economy and business, .......


no there is not, the majority still are good honest people who believe in playing by the rules and rewarding those who deserve to be rewarded. The problem is that this country has been hijacked by special interest minority groups, be it the wealthy, gays, corporate leadership and so forth. The solution is for the majority to take America back. If this were to happen the vote would once again rule the day instead of the exchange of money, and the courts would stop trying to change America into something that most Americans don't want it to be.


Do you honestly think that there's some large, silent group of 'normal' people out there, prosperous and moral, who are being ignored? Who are not part of any special interest group?

Why do you think this? And how would you describe these 'normal' people?

Cycloptichorn
okie
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Feb, 2009 09:39 pm
@hawkeye10,
hawkeye10 wrote:

Quote:
)
The problem we have now, hawkeye, and I think it is almost past fixing, there are simply too many people out there that are not paying income tax, that frankly do not care about the health of the economy and business, .......


no there is not, the majority still are good honest people who believe in playing by the rules and rewarding those who deserve to be rewarded. The problem is that this country has been hijacked by special interest minority groups, be it the wealthy, gays, corporate leadership and so forth. The solution is for the majority to take America back. If this were to happen the vote would once again rule the day instead of the exchange of money, and the courts would stop trying to change America into something that most Americans don't want it to be.

I think there are a large number that are honest and play by the rules, but the percentage that vote for their own selfish entitlements, as promised by politicians, are more than there used to be. Face it, a larger percentage of the population now pay no income tax, so they do not have a vested interest in controlling spending. After all, they don't have to pay for it.

Rush was talking, I think yesterday, about the number of people in New York City that foot the bill, and if a mere 20,000 or so of those people simply moved out, it would virtually turn the city on its head in terms of tax revenue. The country is becoming more dependent upon a smaller percentage of people to keep it going. I think we desperately need more manufacturing jobs that are decent jobs for the less educated.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Feb, 2009 09:48 pm
@okie,
"Selfish entitlements?" Do the wealthy get these "selfish entitlements" too?

Quote:
One of the world’s richest men, Warren Buffet, made headlines in 2007 when he claimed that the current tax system allows him to pay less tax than his secretary.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Feb, 2009 09:51 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
I believe that there is a huge majority who believe that the best interests of the many out weights the best interests of the few, that they have been asleep and pursuing their own greed as this economic system has taught them to do, and that they are now about to wake-up. The rise of Obama is a clear signal. The collapse of the old economic order will change the consciousness even more.
0 Replies
 
genoves
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Feb, 2009 11:52 pm
Hawkeye 10 wrote:


no there is not, the majority still are good honest people who believe in playing by the rules and rewarding those who deserve to be rewarded. The problem is that this country has been hijacked by special interest minority groups, be it the wealthy, gays, corporate leadership and so forth. The solution is for the majority to take America back. If this were to happen the vote would once again rule the day instead of the exchange of money, and the courts would stop trying to change America into something that most Americans don't want it to be.

Exactly!!!

Michael P. Healy has somewhat the same sentiments--

2008
The Productive Minority and the Tyrannical Majority
Political writers seeking to make a point often do so through the apocryphal quotes of Alexis de Tocqueville, the great French writer and author of Democracy in America.

How often have we heard speeches that cite this apocryphal deTocqueville quote:

America is great because she is good. If America ceases to be good, America will cease to be great.

A wonderful sentiment, but one that cannot be found in any of deTocqueville’s writings.

Similarly, here are two common quotes, taken from http://www.brainyquote.com attributed to deTocqueville which I suspect are apocryphal. My cursory search of his works could not find the proper citation, though perhaps a more diligent blog reader may:

The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money

and

A democratic government is the only one in which those who vote for a tax can escape the obligation to pay it.

Despite their likely apocryphal origins, the idea behind these quotes aptly describe the circumstances to which our nation has fallen.

The Productive Minority today is small business owners and middle class Americans who work 40 to 60 hours a week at middle class and upper middle class jobs.

The Tyrannical Majority is the half of all Americans who pay no income tax, and the Fortune 500 executives and union workers who support their own overpaid income through a variety of public programs.

Our economy is an odd mix of brutal free market capitalism for small businesses and Corporate Socialism for many selected Fortune 500 companies. Borrowing a phrase from Reagan OMB Director David Stockman, the woes of our current economic system can be attributed to the triumph of politics over the common sense of free markets.

The only long term solution is to kick the onerous interference of the government into the workings of the free market out of the arena, and let the creative destructionism of capitalism restore the vibrance and growth to our economy
0 Replies
 
genoves
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Feb, 2009 11:53 pm
Great quotes--

The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money

and

A democratic government is the only one in which those who vote for a tax can escape the obligation to pay it.
okie
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Feb, 2009 08:46 pm
@genoves,
genoves wrote:

Great quotes--

The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money

and

A democratic government is the only one in which those who vote for a tax can escape the obligation to pay it.

I think the Congress has discovered that, genoves.

And I like this quote:
Quote:
The only long term solution is to kick the onerous interference of the government into the workings of the free market out of the arena, and let the creative destructionism of capitalism restore the vibrance and growth to our economy .

Best solution I've heard yet. Alot better than Obama's which merely does more of what created this mess. Kind of like gunning the engine in a mudhole, the car sinks deeper. So Obama says, take the governor off of the engine and gun it even more, so we can sink deeper yet, in fact, why not just bury the car? I would say, fine, go ahead, except for the fact that the rest of us are in the car and we would like to escape with our lives.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Feb, 2009 10:11 pm
@okie,
okie wrote:
And I like this quote:
Quote:
Quote:

The only long term solution is to kick the onerous interference of the government into the workings of the free market out of the arena, and let the creative destructionism of capitalism restore the vibrance and growth to our economy .


And exactly how does one do this without government intervention? Let the banks go broke?
0 Replies
 
genoves
 
  0  
Reply Sun 22 Feb, 2009 12:07 am
@okie,
Okie- There are more who agree with you. The moronic Cicerone Imposter does not know what he is talking about but the Obama Administration is apparently not that concerned about the banks going "broke". Instead,because of the pressure they are getting all over the country, they appear not to be considering any type of nationalization-

Note--Wall Street Journal-Feb-21-22-2009-Front Page

quote
caps mine

"US SEEKS TO STEM BANK FEARS
White House Plays Down Nationalization Talk AS STOCKS HIT NEW BEAR-MARKET LOW"

"Ronald Gibbs, a White House spokesman, said Friday afternoon that the month-old Obama adminstration "continues to strongly believe that a PRIVATELY HELD BANKING SYSTEM IS THE WAY TO GO."

end of quote

It's too bad that Cicerone Imposter never reads the papers and instead concentrates on comic books. If he had read almost any paper, he would have found that quote in it>
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 Feb, 2009 07:07 pm
Obama now advocates cutting spending to lower the deficit by 2013!!!! What? This after going on the biggest spending spree of all time? I wish he would make up his mind, which is it, spend like a drunken sailor, or sober up, which is it? Does he have a split personality?
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 Feb, 2009 07:30 pm
@okie,
Quote:
Obama now advocates cutting spending to lower the deficit by 2013!!!! What? This after going on the biggest spending spree of all time? I wish he would make up his mind, which is it, spend like a drunken sailor, or sober up, which is it? Does he have a split personality?


it is politically impossible unless we are back into economic growth by 2013, and there is zero reason to think that we will be.
 

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