Where is the US economy headed?

@roger,

That was funny, Roger. Look at the past 4 or 5 pages for thoughtful economic commentary. We can do better.

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@roger,

Note the caveat. Really, have you looked at the other threads?

roger wrote:

For all its faults,

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should there be a serious thread discussing the US economy, I would love to participate and I'm sure there are many others who would as well.

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You know how threads go. Serious discussion starts, one person either nitpicks or provokes someone else, it devolves for a while, then serious discussion comes back. It's a natural cycle.

Cycloptichorn

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@dyslexia,

Dys, as you and Diane know, I am a consummate organizer of threads. Watch this space! I am working this thing out and hope to have something going by this weekend.

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@realjohnboy,

groovy, if you can keep it out of political ideology and firmly centered on economics I will enjoy it.

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@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

okie wrote:

It doesn't take an expert to see a boondoggle coming over the horizon, ci. All it takes is some familiarity with projects in the works, how they are done, monies needed, priorities, and the bureaucracy - how it works, from past observation.

All you would need to know about this, you could learn by working somewhere where they told you, here, take this money, now spend it, and don't confuse us with details.

I don't disagree with you, Okie, re bad decisions made at the end of the Bush administration. It is quite likely that there will be some poor choices made ahead. But the stimulous package and the next round of banking bailouts is going to happen whether we like it or not.
This thread appeals to all of 5 or 6 people. I am wondering if any one of yall would like to start a new topic re how folks feel this thing is working going forward. We would need to come up with a snappy title and tags to something other than "economics."
I am serious about this. Can I get anyone to nibble at doing this?

Thats fine if anyone wants to start a new thread. For me, this one works well, its the economy, and the stimulus package is now the central issue, so I can't think of a more appropriate place for it.

I know that Democratic leaning voters and opinions disagree with some of the things conservatives post here, they consider them corny, perhaps, I don't care, I believe simple principles trump intellectualism most of the time. For example, I keep talking about central planning does not work as well as free market economics. Apparently some people do not believe this, or they read over it, or they consider themselves too intelligent to buy something simple, or they think simply do not grasp the concept, I don't know. I would respectfully ask anyone that disagrees with principles like this to provide evidence instead of posting snide comments. To understand the big picture and come to common ground, we must first agree upon foundational concepts. If there is no agreement, then evidence needs to be provided. This is the problem on this forum, just as it is in D. C., sad to say. We now have a stimulus package with little evidence that it actually does what it is intended to do.

Therein lies the problem with Obama, does anyone know what he believes, is he a free market guy, I doubt it personally. I think we now are going to have a real vacancy of leadership out of Obama. He is a smooth talker, but thats about it. I would like him to tell us with a straight face what he believes, instead of all the rhetoric, whys and wherefores, and contradictions from day to day. It is totally frustrating. I don't know if its ignorance, inexperience, or dishonesty, or a mixture of all three. Somehow, the guy needs to quit campaigning and start providing some leadership.

The following opinion by Michael Gerson is a good one, and I think very fair, but pointing out some of what I just said. I highlight one phrase that captures it.

"The initial period of the Obama administration, however, has provided hints of a long-term problem -- not one of incompetence, but of emptiness. "

http://townhall.com/columnists/MichaelGerson/2009/02/11/the_tragedy_that_causes_no_scandal

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@Cycloptichorn,

Yes, Cyclo is correct. Serious discussion starts and some people call right wing politicians assholes and think they are contributing to the discussion whereas all they are doing is revealing their lack of mental acuity and their wing biases.

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Serious discussion? Let's go. When Obama says we are in the worst recession since the Great Depression, he is wrong. To paraphrase FDR, "The only thing we have to fear is Obama spreading fear himself."

Let's look at the statistics:

In the early eighties,we were suffering from multiyear, double-digit inflation, double-digit unemployment, double-digit interest rates, declining incomes, and rising poverty. In fact, what we suffer with today is not the worst economy since the Great Depression, but the worst economy since Jimmy Carter -- the last time liberals were dominant politically and intellectually.

I see no DOUBLE DIGIT UNEMPLOYMENT, DOUBLE DIGIT INTEREST RATES AND, AT THIS TIME, DOUBLE DIGIT INFLATION. Because of the staggering debt Obama has placed on the citizens of the United States, we will probably encounter DOUBLE DIGIT INFLATION SOON, but we are no where close to double digit unemployment or ESPECIALLY DOUBLE DIGIT INTEREST RATES.

Obama exaggerates and spreads fear to gain revenue for his Democrats. When the money is distributed, watch carefully to see which states get the lion's share of the monies!

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@genoves,

genoves wrote:

Serious discussion? Let's go. When Obama says we are in the worst recession since the Great Depression, he is wrong. To paraphrase FDR, "The only thing we have to fear is Obama spreading fear himself."

Let's look at the statistics:....

Excellent point. How much longer will he continue to talk down the economy by using incomplete and inaccurate data. It could become the worst since the Great Depression, but not quite yet.

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@okie,

compared to 1932 people today are much better educated and have much better access to information....glossing over the gory facts as FDR did is not an option. The fact is that we are headed into depression at a much faster rate than we did during the last depression, where we are going is not very much in doubt anymore. Words from POTUS don't change this.

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@hawkeye10,

Hawkeye 10---You are obviously well read. You also write clearly and get your meanings across well. I must take issue with your post:

l. FDR's glossing over of facts did nothing to stop the depression in the early thirties.

Note:

Ju ly 1927 Unemployment 3.3
Dow Jones 168
October 1929 Unemployment 5 %
Dow Jones 343
September 1931 Unemployment 17.4 %
Dow Jones 140
October 1933 Unemployment 22.9 %
Dow Jones 93
Nov ember 1934 Unemployment 23.2
Dow Jones 95
July 1935 Unemployment 21.3%
Dow Jones 119
December 1936 Unemployment 15.3
Dow Jones 182
January 1937 Unemployment 15.1
Dow Jones 179
January 1938 Unemployment 17.4
Dow Jones 121

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@hawkeye10,

Hawkeye 10--I think you are correct in saying that Obama is leading us to the same all out governmental spending spree where the government spending cuts out private enterprise, thus making the problem worse but I know that you have not forgotten the Carter years. As of this time, we are no where near the disasterous numbers that Democratic looney produced.

Let's look at the statistics:

In the early eighties,we were suffering from multiyear, double-digit inflation, double-digit unemployment, double-digit interest rates, declining incomes, and rising poverty. In fact, what we suffer with today is not the worst economy since the Great Depression, but the worst economy since Jimmy Carter -- the last time liberals were dominant politically and intellectually.

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The Congressional Budget Office, which is bipartisan and has an excellent record, stated that the stimulus bill will create a significant number of jobs.

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@Advocate,

No according to okie, the master economist.

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@Advocate,

Quote:

The Congressional Budget Office, which is bipartisan and has an excellent record, stated that the stimulus bill will create a significant number of jobs.

Ahh, the old "quantity over quality" justification...nice!

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@cicerone imposter,

cicerone imposter wrote:

No according to okie, the master economist.

Misquoting again.
I believe it will create jobs for a while, but it will not fix what is ailing our economy, and once the money is spent, we will still be in the same situation, except the public debts will be far higher.

Tax cuts would do a better job of stimulating the economy, but it would not fix all the problems we have with the economy either. Taxcuts to businesses are better than personal to help the competitive ability of business. And it is only a partial solution. We need change, drastic reform, not more of the same old failed policies of Obama.

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@okie,

Expert okie wrote:

Quote:

We need change, drastic reform, not more of the same old failed policies of Obama.

Please, somebody, anybody, please remind expert okie that Obama has been in office for less than one month. Please!

Note: We all know that Bush was also an expert on the economy and the war in Iraq.

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@okie,

okie wrote:

cicerone imposter wrote:

No according to okie, the master economist.

Misquoting again.
I believe it will create jobs for a while, but it will not fix what is ailing our economy, and once the money is spent, we will still be in the same situation, except the public debts will be far higher.

Tax cuts would do a better job of stimulating the economy, but it would not fix all the problems we have with the economy either. It is only a partial solution. We need change, drastic reform, not more of the same old failed policies of Obama.

Why do you think tax cuts would do a better job?

Also, what reform do you recommend? And you'd better not say tax cuts.

Cycloptichorn

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@cicerone imposter,

Obama's policies are nothing but warmed over liberal policies practiced by Democrats for decades, except taken to another level, a more disastrous one I might add. Examples abound. Failed schools, throw more money at it. Failed government, give it more money. Failed this, failed that, do not reform it, give it more money, thats the policy.

1 Reply

Where is the US economy headed?

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