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Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jul, 2008 07:24 pm
realjohnboy wrote:
Good evening.
I have mentioned before that I am in the retailing racket and my group of stores is one of 104 or so which participate monthly in a survey run by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The Richmond Fed covers MD, DC, VA, NC, SC and part of WV.
I get a two page report summarizing activity in the region for the current month in a handful of activities (revenue, # of employees, shopper traffic etc), compared to the two previous months. An accompanying graph shows monthly and three month moving averages of the Revenue Index.
Looking bleak. Both graphed lines dropping off sharply since April.
Gas and food prices are really beginning to hurt retail sales.

Mervyn's, as noted earlier here, went into bankruptcy (not liquidation; rather reorganization). Two issues for them as I understand it. Squeezed between the lower end WalMart and the higher end stores and, secondly, heavily located in economically hard-hit CA.

Also today, I note that a TX based chain of restaurants (operating under the Brennigans or Steak and Ale flags) abruptly shut down all of their bunch of outlets. A 1000 or so jobs went along. The article, which I found on Forbes, mentioned a few other chains that seem to be in trouble, including Outback Steakhouse (which is the only one I can recall).
These places tend to be cash cows when the economy is good, but they are highly leveraged, so when prices rise and traffic drops off, they are very vulnerable.

My sales are down about 6% YTD. I can tell you more about that if anyone is interested. -rjb-


I used to be a waiter at Steak and Ale during college; given the rise in the price of beef, it's not surprising to me that they went under.

I'd like to hear more; I'm interested.

Cycloptichorn
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jul, 2008 08:09 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:

I used to be a waiter at Steak and Ale during college

Cycloptichorn


Everyone should have to serve a term as a waiter or waitress in a restuarant, Cyclo. How many drunk patrons, obnoxious people who would leave you a penny for a tip because they thought that would amuse their friends. Brings back memories.
Of course those were offset by many, many generous people who appreciated the job you were doing. They probably had waited on tables.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jul, 2008 08:27 pm
I learned tipping when I worked at a night club in Chicago as an assistant maitre' d. TIP = To Insure Promptness.
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OGIONIK
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jul, 2008 08:50 pm
i hate not tipping, but poor folk and broke for no reason aye!
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jul, 2008 08:52 pm
I never knew you did that, Tak. When was that?
I worked at a steakhouse in Capetown, SA. The Stagecoach. They all, for some reason, had western American names. Maybe 25 tables.
I was good. Believe it or not, back then when I was young, I had fairly long (by SA standards) blonde hair, and I had my US southern accent. The menu was limited, so I could take an order from a table of 8 without writing anything down (proving I was attentive). Of course, I had to write it down for Les, the grill man, but the customers didn't know that.
And I bought a really cheap, really cheap, "gold" wedding band so that. if asked, I could say my wife and I were saving up money to get back to the US. I was good.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jul, 2008 09:08 pm
It was in the late fifties. The night club was owned by my friend's parents, Club Waikiki, on Wilson Avenue. I was very poor back then, and he sort of adopted me as his brother, and took me golfing and night-clubbing on his dime. The guy was a poor manager of money, but generous to a fault. I later introduced him to his wife in San Francisco, and they had a daughter, but they eventually divorced. He moved to Hawaii, and last I heard, he drowned during a fishing trip about 15 years ago.
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H2O MAN
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jul, 2008 09:15 pm
Good times!
I never waited tables, but I was a door man that doubled as site security at a club in Miami and a marina in Coconut Grove.
I was a farm boy fresh from Indiana and I spoke no Spanish, the year was 1984.
What an experience, hard work, long hours, but there was never a dull moment and the tips were outstanding.
I met so many excellent women and had much fun. Good times!

I fully respect anybody that has completed a tour or two serving on the front lines
of the food and entertainment business and I tip those that serve me very well.
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Miller
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jul, 2008 12:03 pm
Re: Good times!
H2O_MAN wrote:
I tip those that serve me very well.


As do I... Cool
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Ramafuchs
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jul, 2008 07:22 pm
This is a time to condemn the bankers, not to embrace them. They are the scoundrels who got us into the biggest economic mess since the Great Depression, lining their own pockets while destroying the life savings of those who trusted them. Yet both of our leading presidential candidates are scrambling to enlist not only the big-dollar contributions but, more frighteningly, the "expertise" of the very folks who advocated the financial industry deregulations at the heart of this meltdown.

Republican candidate John McCain even appointed as his campaign co-chairman Phil Gramm, who went from being chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, where he sponsored disastrous legislation that empowered the banking bandits, to becoming one of them at UBS Warburg. Gramm was forced to resign from McCain's campaign only after he went public with his contempt for the financial concerns of ordinary Americans, calling them "whiners" and perpetrators of a "mental recession."

But Gramm and the Republicans couldn't have done it without the support of leading Democrats. The most egregious of Gramm's legislative favors to the financiers took the form of legislation named in part after him?-the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, which became law only after then-Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin prevailed upon President Clinton to sign the bill. The bill's immediate major effect was to legitimize the long-sought merger between Citibank and insurance giant Travelers. Rubin's critical support for the bill was rewarded with an appointment, within days of its passage, to a top job at Citibank (later Citigroup) paying more than $15 million a year.

That is the same Rubin with whom Democratic candidate Barack Obama met, along with other influential advisers, on Tuesday to figure out what to do about the sorry state of our economy. But what in the world did he expect to learn from Rubin? And why did he appoint Rubin's protégé, Jason Furman, who ran the Rubin-funded Hamilton Project, to be the Obama campaign's economic director? Hopefully, during their encounter Tuesday, Rubin offered himself as a contrite model of everything that the candidate of change needs to change.

After all, Goldman Sachs, where Rubin spent 25 years of his business career before entering the Clinton administration, has been one of the prime corporate villains in the financial shenanigans that led to the subprime mortgage scandal. As co-chairman of the firm, surely he had knowledge of the financial hanky-panky that would prove so disastrous down the road. Indeed, as Treasury secretary, he favored an extension of the deregulation that enabled this explosion of banking avarice. Not surprisingly, the current Treasury secretary, Henry Paulson, also previously headed Goldman.

When Rubin assumed a top position at Citibank after his stint at the Treasury, he was not above influencing his former employees in the government. In one notorious instance during the fall of 2001, when Enron was going down the tubes Rubin telephoned a Treasury undersecretary and asked him to consider intervening with credit-rating agencies to hold off downgrading Enron's ratings. When the story was leaked, some media accounts noted the possibility of a conflict of interest because Enron owed Citibank $750 million, which it could not pay if bankrupt.

Despite his skills and his vaunted position as Citibank's chairman, Rubin was not spared the disastrous consequences of Citibank's own wild financial manipulations, which, if anything, exceeded those of Enron. Tens of billions in bad mortgage and credit card debt placed the bank at the forefront of the current economic crisis, and so it is weird that Obama would now turn to Rubin for advice.

It's even weirder that the presumptive Democratic nominee would pick Rubin's man Furman as his campaign economic director at a time when cleaning up the mess left by the bankers is the highest priority. Furman hardly distinguished himself four years ago in that role in John Kerry's failed presidential campaign, with its muffled economic message that could not be blamed on the candidate's stiff style alone.

The bigger problem is that folks such as Rubin and Furman, perhaps best known as an economist for his bold but woefully misguided defense of the Wal-Mart business model, clearly do not feel the pain of the voters who are losing their homes.

But then again, why should Rubin, or Gramm on the Republican side, be expected to care when he has made so many millions off the suffering of those voters? Not good at a time when we need a presidential candidate who sticks it to the bankers instead of sucking up to them.

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20080729_sucking_up_to_the_bankers/
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jul, 2008 09:26 pm
Re: Good times!
Miller wrote:
H2O_MAN wrote:
I tip those that serve me very well.


As do I... Cool


I tip those who serve me - between 15% to 25%.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jul, 2008 09:32 pm
What do you want, a medal, ci?
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jul, 2008 09:37 pm
okie, Do you take dumb pills every day?
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jul, 2008 09:47 pm
I use smart pills, ci, which tells me not to tip stupid waiters and waitresses. Besides, why don't they go get a real job for a change?

Most of our economic problems in this country are due to tipping, not George Bush.
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jul, 2008 09:57 pm
Just kidding, ci. In all seriousness, if you tip 15 to 25%, I know I probably tip around 20 to 30%, you cheapskate.

I hope you sleep well tonight, knowing you are a skin flint, and probably made a waiter or waitress go home broke, probably couldn't even buy gas to get home, probably living under a bridge, you tightwad.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jul, 2008 10:37 pm
I don't feel like a skinflint at all; I know for a fact that my tipping satisfies most of the waiters and waitresses that serve us. It's a good thing I'm not here to satisfy your stupidity.
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jul, 2008 11:12 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
I don't feel like a skinflint at all; I know for a fact that my tipping satisfies most of the waiters and waitresses that serve us. .....
I notice you say "most" of the waiters and waitresses. That could be 51%, but what about the possible 49% or minority of the waitresses and waiters that aren't satisfied, because you shorted them, ci?

The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. No compassion. You make the devil himself, George Bush, look like a saint.
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jul, 2008 11:33 pm
Tipping is performance based; when I like something, I usually add a dollar or two, when I don't, I subtract one.

Cycloptichorn
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jul, 2008 11:45 pm
Do Tell, cyclops! You are full of such intricate knowledge of such complex issues, it amazes me! Up until now, I had no clue what a tip was.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Jul, 2008 08:46 am
okie wrote:
Do Tell, cyclops! You are full of such intricate knowledge of such complex issues, it amazes me! Up until now, I had no clue what a tip was.


okie, I now understand why you post such stupid ideas; you make tipping complex when in fact it's one of life's simple issues. The amount of my tips may just be an average, but it's adjusted according to the service I receive. Nothing difficult about it!
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H2O MAN
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Jul, 2008 09:04 am
Re: Good times!
cicerone imposter wrote:
Miller wrote:
H2O_MAN wrote:
I tip those that serve me very well.


As do I... Cool


I tip those who serve me - between 15% to 25%.


It all depends on the quality of personal service received.
Did they listen? Did they remember? Did they make the extra effort?
0 Replies
 
 

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