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Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jan, 2008 06:44 pm
au1929 wrote:
Hamburger
Your math is impeccable. However for the American consumer it is a kick in the wallet. Since wages are basically stagnant and the cost of oil related products are on the rise.


This is one reason I don't believe in the government's inflation numbers of three (3) percent. When all costs are going up at double-digit rates for the American consumer, and wages stay stagnant, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the government's BS about their inflation numbers - year after year.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2008 10:17 am
Maybe you have a point, but be quiet about it, ci, if you don't want entitlements to grow too fast. Lower cost of living raises helps us have a better chance to manage the federal budget.
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hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2008 12:05 pm
c.i. wrote :

Quote:
This is one reason I don't believe in the government's inflation numbers of three (3) percent. When all costs are going up at double-digit rates for the American consumer, and wages stay stagnant, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the government's BS about their inflation numbers - year after year.


i believe that's the CORE INFLATION ! things like gasoline , food and other volotile items are excluded from tht core inflation number .
even commentators on CNBC are saying that the core inflation number has become bogus .
as one CNBC commentator recently said : "i told my wife about the low 3% inflation rate - she invited me to go shopping with her ! " . Shocked Laughing
hbg

Quote:
In recent years, the news media have increasingly focused on the so-called core (excluding food and energy) measure of inflation. Often we hear how the all-items index may have been higher than expected, but we should still cheer because the core number was lower than expected.

The reasoning behind this is that food and energy prices are supposedly more volatile than other components, something that is certainly true in the case of energy but less true of food, which in the aggregate is hardly more volatile than some "core" categories. Individual sub-categories in food like vegetables may be highly volatile but that is usually counteracted by other sub-categories remaining stable or even moving in the opposite direction.

The reasoning for excluding food and energy is again their real or alleged volatility, which supposedly make them unreliable as inflation indicators. But the idea that the core index in any way better measures "underlying" inflation pressures should be rejected for several reasons.




complete article :
CORE INFLATION RATE
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2008 12:06 pm
okie, Are you talking about our tax paid entitlements in Iraq? It's costing us 2.7 billion every week; for a cuase that's been lost some years ago. No country survives without a viable central government.
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hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2008 12:32 pm
c.i. :
if you'd stop spending money on such silly things as food and gasoline , you'll see your "personal" inflation rate going down quickly Laughing !

(this is what the "governor of the bank of canada" has been telling canadians for quite some time : " THE CORE INFLATION RATE REMAINS LOW ! " )
hbg (hasn't stopped eating and drinking yet)
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Miller
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2008 12:41 pm
Americans need to stop driving cars and start doing more biking and walking... Cool
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2008 12:44 pm
Miller wrote:
Americans need to stop driving cars and start doing more biking and walking... Cool


As a biker and walker, I couldn't agree more. It would not only save transportation monies, but the increased health benefits would doubtlessly lead to lower medical costs as well.

Cycloptichorn
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2008 12:47 pm
The biggest problem with the government's "core inflationn rate" is how the financial pundits continue to use this useless number for the world at large.

Most Americans don't know about "core" and "real" inflation rates, because nobody bothers to explain the difference.

They compare economic growth (3 percent) and the inflation rate at three percent. For most Americans, that means zero growth - or falling further behind. Only the most wealthy are gaining in both income and value.
0 Replies
 
Miller
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2008 01:15 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
The biggest problem with the government's "core inflationn rate" is how the financial pundits continue to use this useless number for the world at large.

Most Americans don't know about "core" and "real" inflation rates, because nobody bothers to explain the difference.

They compare economic growth (3 percent) and the inflation rate at three percent. For most Americans, that means zero growth - or falling further behind. Only the most wealthy are gaining in both income and value.


But is the government "pushing" the sale of I-bonds?
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hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2008 01:40 pm
miller wrote :

Quote:
Americans need to stop driving cars and start doing more biking and walking...


up to a point i agree with you , however there are more and more SMOG DAYS even here in ontario when the medical offcer of health advises people NOT to walk for any long distances during the daytime .
we are being advised to go for a walk before and after sunset Laughing

as seniors we also find walking with a legbrace is getting rather slow .
hbg(still walking - but not as much as even two years ago)
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2008 02:11 pm
hbg, So true about us seniors slowing down; but for me, it's been only about one year. What surprises me even more is the simple fact that my head tells me to slow down. I'm cutting down on my travels down to five or six this year; my brain keeps telling me to slow down.

The good news is that I'm still getting my eight hours of sleep every night, and I can still walk all day if need be.
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Miller
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2008 03:46 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
hbg, So true about us seniors slowing down; but for me, it's been only about one year. What surprises me even more is the simple fact that my head tells me to slow down. I'm cutting down on my travels down to five or six this year; my brain keeps telling me to slow down.

The good news is that I'm still getting my eight hours of sleep every night, and I can still walk all day if need be.


But do you know where you're going? Rolling Eyes
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2008 03:54 pm
Miller wrote:
cicerone imposter wrote:
hbg, So true about us seniors slowing down; but for me, it's been only about one year. What surprises me even more is the simple fact that my head tells me to slow down. I'm cutting down on my travels down to five or six this year; my brain keeps telling me to slow down.

The good news is that I'm still getting my eight hours of sleep every night, and I can still walk all day if need be.


But do you know where you're going? Rolling Eyes


More than half the time.
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2008 05:21 pm
Quote:
But do you know where you're going?


it's either UPHILL - puff , puff - or DOWNHHILL Shocked
advantages and disadvantages in both - depending upon you you look at it Laughing
hbg(right now trying to stay upright )
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au1929
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Jan, 2008 11:03 am
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Jan, 2008 11:05 am
au, That's a good article, but Krugman misses one big point; the loss of value of the US dollar against all major currencies.
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Jan, 2008 11:34 am
Jobs number today was terrible, helicopter Ben Bernake makes noises of another rate cut.

Cycloptichorn
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Jan, 2008 04:30 pm
Yes, Cyclo, the numbers were bad. Something like only 18,000 new net jobs. I have been trying to find out the break-down, but without great success. Something like 48,000 down in construction. Retailing, manufacturing and financial services also down. Health care up. Oddly (to me) 31,000 new jobs in government.

If anyone stumbles across the distribution of gains and losses by category, that would be cool.

The stock market was not happy at the news on Friday.
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Jan, 2008 04:37 pm
re...rece...recession.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Jan, 2008 05:21 pm
Some of us have been talking about the "r" word last year. ;( I can't see how our economy can continue to grow when more Americans are losing their homes/jobs, fuel costs are going up, and salaries are stagnant.
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