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Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
Richard Saunders
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Oct, 2007 09:57 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
okie, 100 percent communism will never work; it takes away the motivation to work, depresses the development of new technologies, eliminates the benefits to find methods to increase efficiencies, and removes the profit motive from one's labor.

Otherwise, communism is fine.


CI,

I tell people that socialism/communism was the first form of govt the English colonies tried here... ANd then people think Im nuts.. But that is exactly what was done at Jamestown.. and the ill effect it had on production almost killed off the colony. THey had to change it or everybody would have starved to death.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Oct, 2007 11:13 pm
Richard S, That's correct; when there is no incentive to work hard or improve quality and efficiency, or gain benefit from improving processes, they deteriorate to the point of uselessness. Russia learned that when the produce they harvested ended up not getting delivered, because there was no organization to deliver the goods, and they ended up rotting in the fields.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 10:27 am
cicerone imposter wrote:
Richard S, That's correct; when there is no incentive to work hard or improve quality and efficiency, or gain benefit from improving processes, they deteriorate to the point of uselessness. Russia learned that when the produce they harvested ended up not getting delivered, because there was no organization to deliver the goods, and they ended up rotting in the fields.

I agree. Capitalism drives the economy from the bottom where supply and demand can best be implemented most efficiently. Central planning is simply too far from where the production and consumption activities to efficiently orchestrate the process. You end up with machinery, labor, and products that are mis-allocated and either in short supply or unneeded and unused. When companies lay off workers, just one apparently sad effect in capitalism, it is really not sad in the long run because it re-allocates that labor into a sector that is more necessary and in demand, thus satisfying the needs of the society more efficiently. That was just one example of countless like it.
0 Replies
 
Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 11:42 am
cicerone imposter wrote:
okie, 100 percent communism will never work; it takes away the motivation to work, depresses the development of new technologies, eliminates the benefits to find methods to increase efficiencies, and removes the profit motive from one's labor.

Otherwise, communism is fine.


Neither will 100% capitalism.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 12:48 pm
Roxxxanne wrote:
cicerone imposter wrote:
okie, 100 percent communism will never work; it takes away the motivation to work, depresses the development of new technologies, eliminates the benefits to find methods to increase efficiencies, and removes the profit motive from one's labor.

Otherwise, communism is fine.


Neither will 100% capitalism.


True. Capitalist countries have been trying to fine-tune what works best. We're still not there, but capitalism is alive and well. There still needs much work to ensure properties are protected from fraud, government doesn't over-step its controls, educational standards are kept high, and our infrastructure such as transportation, communication, energy, and education is maintained. I believe in the open market system of economy where comparative advantage remains at a very high level.
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Miller
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 12:55 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
Investing is never the same from year to year or decade to decade because the world economy is dramatically changed during those periods. What may have been good advise 20 years ago may have some grain of truth, but I'm leery of using the same methods after so much change.

It's no longer just looking at the US DOW and Nasdaq, but to be aware of the macro-ecomomics of trends in debt levels, circulation of money, liquidity, p/e ratios, interest rates, the value of the US dollar, the increase in bankruptcies, inflation, and how the other developed countries are faring.

It's never good when our economy begins to have the threat of a recession while fighting a war that increases public debt.

the "big" picture doesn't look too good right now.


Good point!

Always buy quality stocks from quality companies and follow your own mind. As I've said before, I've done very well in the past and present and will continue to do so in the future.
0 Replies
 
Miller
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 01:01 pm
Halfback wrote:


P.S. I am retired and my money is in Money Market and Treasuries. .


No diversification and little or no growth.

F+ portfolio... Crying or Very sad
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 01:03 pm
Miller wrote:
Halfback wrote:


P.S. I am retired and my money is in Money Market and Treasuries. .


No diversification and little or no growth.

F+ portfolio... Crying or Very sad


I second that! "F" is too kind. LOL
0 Replies
 
Miller
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 01:08 pm
Laughing
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 01:09 pm
Here's a case in point: Although I shifted most of our year to date gains into federal money market funds, we still gain like in today's market when it goes up. If it goes down, we don't hurt as much because most of our gains are already "protected" from a bear market.

It's impossible to second-guess the market. We still don't know the total impact of the sub-prime loan debacle, less money in the market place to borrow to buy homes (downturn in home buying is down) or purchase of goods and services, and the US dollar continues to lose against other major currencies. Most of today's increase is based on one report; that 110,000 new jobs were created in August. Howeverk, there are also reports that factory production is down, because demand is down.

This bull market is not here to stay for very long.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 01:10 pm
Here's a case in point: Although I shifted most of our year to date gains into federal money market funds, we still gain like in today's market when it goes up. If it goes down, we don't hurt as much because most of our gains are already "protected" from a bear market.

It's impossible to second-guess the market. We still don't know the total impact of the sub-prime loan debacle, less money in the market place to borrow to buy homes (downturn in home buying) or purchase of goods and services, and the US dollar continues to lose against other major currencies. Most of today's increase is based on one report; that 110,000 new jobs were created in August. Howeverk, there are also reports that factory production is down, because demand is down.

This bull market is not here to stay for very long.
0 Replies
 
Miller
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 01:24 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
... there are also reports that factory production is down, because demand is down.


Factory production in the US is down in part because many factory jobs have been shifted to foreign countries. I'd say demand for "goods" is up, as long as the young have money ( or credit cards ) and there is a good supply of cheap products.
0 Replies
 
Ramafuchs
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 01:27 pm
C I
Just for your perusal I picked up this article.
I wish to know your views about this article.
Thanks
Here is the abridged version.

"The most irresponsible government in the world is the one in the US. It's current debt is nearly ten trillion dollars and unfunded future liabilities are 65 trillion dollars. Its annual GDP is 12 trillion dollars and its debt keeps increasing at over a trillion dollars each year. Its interest payments to service the debt will soon reach a trillion dollars a year. Realistically speaking there is no possibility of America repaying its debt by exporting more than importing. At present it runs over 800 billion dollars a year trade deficit. It just keeps printing more and more dollars. Such a problem led to hyperinflation in the thirties in Weimar Germany. A pack of cigarettes cost a billion marks, The result was Hitler, the second world war and tens of millions of dead people.

All the world's currencies have become fiat currencies, unbacked by gold or tangible assets. This is why the price of gold is approaching 700 dollars, oil is at 77 dollars and the price of onions in India nearly 40 rupees a kilogram. Bush's desperate gamble in Iraq is failing and there is a serious chance that he will play double or quits by attacking Iran to control oil which is the lifeblood of western industrial nations.

The EU has its own currency and will be better able to survive the dollar collapse. China with 1.3 trillion dollars, Japan with a trillion dollars will take the biggest haircut but will still be able to afford oil at over hundred dollars.

Russia, India, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea with two to three hundred billion dollars will only have their hair trimmed because they hold part of their reserves in other currencies. India nevertheless will face a bigger problem as a lot of its outsourcing will be lost due to price and increasing American domestic backlash

The kleptocratic Arab regimes will lose value of their dollar reserves and unrest in them will rise. Since their rule is illegitimate they will stick with America under its military umbrella. The rising Islamic militancy will further destabilize them as is happening even in Pakistan.
The last straw which will break the American camel's back has been already loaded by its greedy capitalists. These capitalists hollowed out US industry and transferred all production and many services to cheaper locales like China and India, to increase their profits. The US now makes mainly high tech arms and planes, grows heavily government subsidized agriculture and indulges in financial speculation. This is why it must make wars and sell arms to keep its economy and employment going. The subsidized cotton leads to Indian farmer suicides. The subsidized corn impoverishes Mexican farmers who migrate illegally to the US to survive by menial jobs. The financial speculation is causing US and world markets wild gyrations.
The dollar is teetering on the edge of a precipice. A sharp jump in world interest rates or a selective lowering of the US interest rates, a worsening of the Middle East war or a sharp jump in the price of oil will nudge the dollar over the edge. Other factors that could hurt are a falling stock market and unwillingness of foreign investors or central banks to fund the current account deficit. Once that happens the selling momentum of dollar holders scrambling for the exits will accelerate the fall.


I am no enemy of capitalism and no friend of communism.
The latter is antithetic to human nature and is unworkable except amongst saints.
The example of many of India's and the old Soviet government bureaucracies will suffice as an example.
The saying goes that in such bureaucracies, everyone has a job but nobody works.
In the old Soviet case it goes further that everyone has money but there is nothing to buy.
What India needs is a judicious mixture of capitalistic socialism with strong and honest regulators.
Free trade that leads to export of onions and starvation at home is the biggest enemy of democracy and ultimately the nemesis of freedom and a civil society. "
http://www.boloji.com/rt3/rt287.htm
0 Replies
 
Ramafuchs
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 01:47 pm
Don't mistake me .
I cannot type and that is the main reason I read and pick up article which mirrors/reflects my view.
Here is one more that speaks my language.

"The disciples of Friedman's economic theorem have skillfully manipulated the language to deceive the subjects of those policies. Stripped of the garments of seductive language, the hidden kernel of truth is clearly seen: unregulated corporate power that masquerades as free market trade. The nations that have undergone Friedman's economic shock therapy: Chile, Argentina, Brazil and Indonesia, and many others, were opened up to privatization and corporate plunder that soon left them impoverished and wasted.

The once sustainable and vibrant local economies, most of them characterized by broad public ownership, were thoroughly globalized, as capitalism was forced upon those who had rejected it at the ballot box or through armed revolution. Local manufactures were no longer protected from multi-nationals: prices soared, wages fell, workers lost their jobs, unemployment rose astronomically, and the infrastructure that once provided inexpensive or free public services?-among them, potable water and inexpensive food?-were privatized and rendered unaffordable to the multitudes.

Shared prosperity quickly gave way to abject poverty and misery; while predatory US corporations bled nation after nation of their natural wealth, and kept the profits to themselves.

Here in the US, the people of New Orleans and other Gulf Coast cities in the wake of Hurricane Katrina experienced the same economic shock and awe as Latin America. The poor were relocated and resorts for the rich quickly supplanted affordable public housing. The public school system was virtually dismantled and privatized. Contractors such as Halliburton and Blackwater reaped enormous profits on the misery and suffering of the Gulf Region's working poor. Corporate profits mattered more than the lives of the people. New Orleans will never be the same.

All of this was accomplished by stripping language of its traditional connotations and perverting it into its opposite meaning. Thus lies became truth and predatory capitalism morphed into beneficent public service. The new definitions are designed to conceal the real intent of the perpetrators of crimes against humanity, and are employed as marketing tools to make blatant theft and exploitation appear palatable to the multitudes, and to the helpless victims of unfettered capitalism.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18499.htm
0 Replies
 
Halfback
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 02:06 pm
Miller wrote:
Halfback wrote:


P.S. I am retired and my money is in Money Market and Treasuries. .


No diversification and little or no growth.

F+ portfolio... Crying or Very sad


I gave my reasons for that. My main concern here is capital preservation. (I believe I said that somewhere also.) You use the term "future" as if you believe the "golden egg" will continue forever. I presented my case, and reasons and belief concerning that same future. Apparently you do not "buy into" my concerns. Fine, it's your money, as they say.

You are grading my portfolio from your perspective and criteria. Your criticism is duly noted. However, a real financial advisor grades a "customer's" portfolio with regards to the customer's needs, desires, wants and even dreams, not his/her own. At least if one wishes to keep one's customers that is. If a customer told me he wanted to keep his nest egg safe from any market fluctuations, I'd advise him to put it in Treasuries and Money Market. Growth be damned!

Halfback
0 Replies
 
Halfback
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 02:12 pm
Nice post, RAMA.

I go along with a lot of what is in the article.

Indicators: EU$ was pretty much on par a few years back with US$. Last I looked 100 US got you 80 EU.

The British pound recently went over $2.00 for the first time in years.

Looks a little shakey to me.

Halfback
0 Replies
 
Ramafuchs
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 02:28 pm
Halfback
Thank you.
I am sure that USA is slowly going into the oblivion in the international competition.
I wish those innocent Americans take note of the developments for the last couple of years.
Thanks.
0 Replies
 
Ramafuchs
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 03:38 pm
If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks...will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.... The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.
-Thomas Jefferson


History records that the money changers have used every form of abuse, intrigue, deceit, and violent means possible to maintain their control over governments by controlling money and its issuance.
-James Madison


If congress has the right under the Constitution to issue paper money, it was given them to use themselves, not to be delegated to individuals or corporations.
-Andrew Jackson

The Government should create, issue, and circulate all the currency and credits needed to satisfy the spending power of the Government and the buying power of consumers. By the adoption of these principles, the taxpayers will be saved immense sums of interest. Money will cease to be master and become the servant of humanity.
-Abraham Lincoln


I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.
-Woodrow Wilson


Meanwhile, the U.S. economy has become deeply dependent on the housing bubble. The economic recovery since 2001 has been disappointing in many ways, but it wouldn't have happened at all without soaring spending on residential construction, plus a surge in consumer spending largely based on mortgage refinancing. Did I mention that the personal savings rate has fallen to zero?

Now we're starting to hear a hissing sound, as the air begins to leak out of the bubble. And everyone - not just those who own Zoned Zone real estate - should be worried.
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/08/opinion/08krugman.html?pagewanted=print
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xingu
 
  1  
Reply Mon 8 Oct, 2007 03:21 pm
Quote:
Number of Homeless Families Rises
By PAT EATON-ROBB - 1 day ago

AMHERST, Mass. (AP) ?- There is just enough space for Lisa Rivera's family to sleep at Jessie's House homeless shelter.

In one room, she fits the full-sized bed she shares with her 9-year-old daughter, the trundle for her 11-year-old son, a twin bed for her 14-year-old daughter and a playpen for her 1 1/2-year old son.

"It's comfortable, but it's hard sleeping all together," the 32-year-old woman said. "Oh my God, sometimes it's so hard."

Faced with domestic abuse, high housing costs and unemployment, Rivera's family finds itself among the growing ranks of the homeless in Massachusetts ?- and possibly, the country.

About 1,800 homeless families were in Massachusetts shelters last week ?- up from 1,400 in June 2006 and just under 1,200 in June 2005, according to state figures. There are more families in shelters now than at any time since the inception of the state's family shelter program in 1983, according to the Massachusetts Coalition for the Homeless.

State officials blame a wide range of problems ?- from cuts in assistance to the recent housing crisis.

"We're very concerned that this is going to keep going," said Julia Kehoe, commissioner of the state Department of Transitional Assistance.

Massachusetts is one of the few states that keep government records of the number of homeless families in shelters because state law requires the Commonwealth to shelter any family that meets income and other guidelines. The state keeps a daily count to show how many beds it needs, said Robyn Frost, executive director of the Massachusetts Coalition for the Homeless.

Nationally, the picture is much less clear.

Data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development suggests there about 750,000 homeless in the nation on any given night, with about 40 percent of those members of homeless families, said Philip Mangano, director of the U.S. Interagency Council on Homelessness.

The overall number of homeless people is up from a few years ago, he said, but nobody can pinpoint an exact number of families because reporting requirements vary widely from state to state.

"Our desire would be to have many more states step up and track the data," Mangano said. "Research and data, that's what should drive the resources that we make available. Instead it's often anecdote, conjecture and hearsay that does that."

Kehoe attributes the increase in Massachusetts to a convergence of low wages, high housing costs, an increase in housing foreclosures and cuts in federal and state housing assistance programs. Two years ago, lawmakers also lowered the financial eligibility requirements to qualify for homeless benefits from the poverty level to those making 130 percent of what would be considered a poverty wage, she said.

"I think what we are seeing here is a perfect storm," she said. "Until we have some investment in affordable housing, and some flexibility in using our resources, we're not going to see a leveling off of these numbers."

Rivera lost her apartment in Springfield in 2005, when a domestic abuse case involving the father of her youngest child prompted the state to remove all four youngsters from her custody, she said. Without the money she had been receiving in Transitional Aid to Families with Dependent Children, Rivera could not pay her rent.

She moved in with friends, worked at a gas station, went to school to become a medical receptionist and fought in court to get her children back.

A judge eventually restored custody, but without a place to live, the family has moved from one shelter after another.

"It's hard to get an apartment anywhere, especially with the size of apartment I need," she said. "There's none out there, and once one comes available, there are just so many of us out here that need, it gets taken up with the snap of a finger."

The New England Farm Workers Council, a private nonprofit agency contracted by the state, is helping Rivera look for permanent housing. She has an income of just over $1,400 a month, all from either TAFDC or Social Security, which she receives for her 9-year-old who suffers from epilepsy.

The agency requires that families spend no more that 50 percent of their income in rent, a figure designed to make it more likely that families won't get behind on those payments.

But rents for a three-bedroom apartment in the greater Springfield area range from about $800 to $1,300 without utilities, said Tom Salter, the vice president of the agency's shelter and housing division.

"A minimum wage job for 40 hours a week is just not going to pay the rent in any area," he said. "It just isn't."

There are state programs that help once a homeless family finds a new place to live. Rental assistance, however, often is difficult to get. The state spends about $30 million on rental subsidies, compared with about $120 million 15 years ago, and there also have been no new incremental increases in major federal subsidies in about a decade, Kehoe said.

Commissioner Kehoe and Frost said families also are being squeezed by the recent national lending crisis, as high mortgages that have forced some landlords to sell or face foreclosure.

"Although most of the homeless were not homeowners, many could have been people living in units that had been foreclosed," Frost said.

Rivera said once she is able to find an apartment, she plans to enroll in another job training program.

"I want to try and live happily ever after if I can," she said. "I try my best to hang in there and do what I got to do. I never want to try and let them be able to take my kids away from me again."


http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gY6rxUZncBuMDJhKBpxcA385AI0gD8S4GF680
0 Replies
 
Ramafuchs
 
  1  
Reply Mon 8 Oct, 2007 03:40 pm
Unfortunately the symptoms are not so rosy.
US Economy is flying high at present and it will not be a smooth landing.
After reading many articles I come to this assessment.
0 Replies
 
 

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