A nice post Au.
Thanks
Globalization--- Next Is Glocalizsation.
Back to the main subject of this thread.
Economists aren't sure a falling dollar will help improve the trade deficit. They argue that the two major components of the trade deficit - oil and imports from China - are not really affected by the dollar gyrations. In July, the two areas represented 80 percent of America's trade imbalance.
"If you can't adjust imports of oil, and most are priced in dollars, and you can't adjust currencies against Chinese yuan, which is pegged to the dollar, depreciating the dollar does not get you where you want to go," says Peter Morici, an economics professor at the University of Maryland's business school.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0924/p01s05-usec.html?page=2
because putting U.S. Dollars under your mattress will surely have a disastrous effect. With the U.S. Dollar on the verge of a total collapse investors will awaken one day to discover their 'nest egg' has disappeared.
Everyday I am amazed by the comments of some of my American friends. These are very intelligent guys and have for the most part quite a lot of money (U.S. Dollars) invested in the financial markets. They do not have a clue as to what I do in life nor do they have a clue as to what is happening in the financial world with the U.S. Dollar, the subprime mortgage issues, the Yen carrytrade and the potential meltdown of our financial system within the coming days, weeks and months. If these savvy guys 'don't get it' then I have to conclude that most Americans 'don't get it'.
The greatest impact in the near future will probably be felt the hardest by the U.S. investors with a declining U.S. Dollar and a declining stock market and they just don't get it. They think the problem is over, after all the stock market as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average is only about 5% off of its all-time high. What problems, what crisis, why worry, the FED is here to bail us out.
Speaking about the FED, have you been following all of the news about Alan Greenspan over the last 48 hours or so? He is now talking to everyone in English that we can understand not all of the double talk for which he was the master for so many years. Why has he chosen to speak out now just hours before the FED will announce their decision on interest rates in the United States? Of course, he is promoting his new book, but is there another reason? Perhaps, Greenspan is speaking out now in an attempt (we stress attempt) to distance himself from the coming meltdown in the financial markets. Does he know what's coming? Does he fear another sharp 1987 style collapse in the U.S. markets? We will know the answers
http://www.safehaven.com/article-8441.htm
With gasoline prices still skulking in the neighborhood of $3-a-gallon, despite oil priced above $80-a-barrel, political and economic leaders can pretend a little while longer that things are okay on the real life American scene. But between the dollar tanking in response to the Federal Reserve's Easy-Money-for-Big-Players policy, and the start of the home-heating season, you can be sure we are headed up to the $4-a-gallon range for happy motoring fuel before New Years.
There's also no guarantee that the Fed rate cuts will rescue any big banks, investment houses, or hedge funds. Sooner or later, to either meet redemptions or admit losses, they'll all have to roll out those mortgage-backed securities, CLOs, and other fraudulent items currently hiding in their books, and ask the world what they're worth paying for. The world will answer by wrinkling its collective noses at the odor emanating from these bundles of financial offal, and that will determine whether some of these outfits stay in business or sink into the mire of financial history.
http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/