Where is the US economy headed?

@hawkeye10,

hawkeye10 wrote:

Six years into the crisis the system is getting worse not better. this is not a phase that will get us back to vigor, this is the end.

This system is terminal.

I hope there is a chance to save it.

Killing ObamaCare and replacing the tax code could maybe kick start a move to vigor...

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@hawkeye10,

A blog? You are actually relying on a blogger for your news about Fannie and Freddie?

That is nothing like Enron. And the blogger doesn't seem to have a clue about how deferred tax assets work. If they recapture the asset it doesn't result in a $60 billion profit they can borrow against to pay the Fed.

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@parados,

hawk still doesn't understand how the Great Recession happened. He's already forgotten about those "derivatives" that were played by the big finance guys, banks, and finance companies. The S&P failed to do their job at evaluating those ever-increasing value of those paper products. LOL

He also doesn't understand how much more difficult it is to get a mortgage loan these days.

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@parados,

parados wrote:

A blog? You are actually relying on a blogger for your news about Fannie and Freddie?

That is nothing like Enron. And the blogger doesn't seem to have a clue about how deferred tax assets work. If they recapture the asset it doesn't result in a $60 billion profit they can borrow against to pay the Fed.

That blogger has a Pulitzer for economic commentary....what do you have?

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@hawkeye10,

A "Pulitzer" doesn't mean anything in the world of economics. Show me ten economic experts that can agree on what will happen to our economy in two, five, ten years?

You can't; that's a FACT.

Try to learn something from this article. I agree with its content.

Quote:

The Dismal Track Record of Economic Forecasts

The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.

Ezra Solomon and/or John Kenneth Galbraith.

The world economy is in crisis. Twenty million people are unemployed in Western Europe and the figure is rising. America faces two severe deficits – the federal budget and the balance of trade…

In this grim context, the opinions of economic gurus increasingly dominate business, politics and international affairs. Yet orthodox economics seems powerless to help.

Economic forecasters notoriously failed to predict the Japanese recession, the depth of the collapse in the German economy …

If this quote sounds like it was from 2009, it just shows how little changes in the accuracy of economic forecasting. In fact, it is from the introduction to the 1994 book “The death of economics” by Paul Ormerod (published by Faber & Faber Limited).

Not for the first time, the 2008/09 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) exposed the profession of economic forecasting as being as reliable as astrologers. Chart 1 shows the sequence of average forecasts for 2009 from their panel of economists (they are polled each month).

As late as September 2008, there were no signs that economists expected anything other than a mild slowdown in the advanced economies. But two months later, they were predicting recessions: and they became ever more pessimistic until mid-2009.

FACT: Economics is not science. There is no mathematical formula that can forecast how our economy will perform in the future.

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@cicerone imposter,

Barrons did a There were 2 forecasts mde at the party

1Obama couldnt possibly win a second term and

2After a moderate dip in gold value everyone should BUY gold cause it was going to 3500$ an oz. ALL the right wing forecasters were saying you could take that to the bank.

Barrons did an article about comparing stats of economic forecasters and merely tossing a coin. While the forecasters were better than coin tossing, they werent by much.
I remember Christmas 2011, I was at a party hosted by friends who were teaparty members of our municipal govt.

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@cicerone imposter,

I remember Christmas 2011, I was at a party hosted by friends who were teaparty members of our municipal govt. There were 2 forecasts mde at the party

1Obama couldnt possibly win a second term and

2After a moderate dip in gold value everyone should BUY gold cause it was going to 3500$ an oz. ALL the right wing forecasters were saying you could take that to the bank.

Barrons did an article about comparing stats of economic forecasters and merely tossing a coin. While the forecasters were better than coin tossing, they werent by much.

I remember Christmas 2011, I was at a party hosted by friends who were teaparty members of our municipal govt.

1 Reply

@hawkeye10,

hawkeye10 wrote:

cicerone imposter wrote:

The silence is deafening!

BTW, my funds are up over 10% YTD. Obama is doing such a lousy job! Time to celebrate?

you're living well at the expense of the young, who are being driven into debt to finance your spending. you had better pray to be dead by the time young americans figure out that they have been lied to and robbed of any chance a having your good life.

CI & I disagree often enough I don't have to agree with this one. He's spending money he's earned or received from some pretty decent investments. I might prefer he spent more of it in the US and less inBerzerkistan, but when you're the one paying the piper, you do get to call the tune.

1 Reply

@farmerman,

Douchebag, I'm impressed with your abilities to remember that far back.

http://www.chartstats.com/images/artwork/6323.jpg

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@roger,

hawk believes what he wants to believe - in trying to belittle people he doesn't even know.

I worked, saved, and invested wisely. The reward for all that is my ability to travel the world.

My travel blogs are posted at www.travelpod.com/members/c.i.222

The map that pops up are the places I have traveled to. I have over 34,000 hits from all over the world on my blog.

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@cicerone imposter,

Living well from your own efforts is the best way to show the other guy that hes full of ****. Course Hawkeye has recently said hes a socialist so he thinks whats yours is negotiable

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@cicerone imposter,

You have me beat easily on the number of countries, CI. I've got more of Africa though. Sudan, Ethiopia. Maybe Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia and Swaziland.

1 Reply

@farmerman,

Quote:

Course Hawkeye has recently said hes a socialist so he thinks whats yours is negotiable

How do socialists think the property of others should be negotiated? Do you think that all socialists should be stereotyped in this way?

If there were socialists during slavery would they have a reason to think the same way about the slave master?

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@realjohnboy,

I actually traveled to more countries than my blog shows, because many of my trips included several countries but reported on one blog. I believe the "real" total is about 87+ unique countries.

I'm in the process of updating my travel log based on my document and picture files. From the abbreviated countries listed on travelpod, I know I've traveled much more than the equivalent 23 times around the world.

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

hawk claims I'm living at the "expense of the young." I'd like for him to prove that! Another hawk claim that belongs in the dumpster.

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@cicerone imposter,

Quote:

hawk claims I'm living at the "expense of the young."

I guess this could be true but I do not believe it because I have not seen any evidence as of yet that I understand to support it but I have heard that claim made by others.

I do think that we get to live at the expense of those who may be intellectually challenged and those who are environmentally challenged.

We are able to earn more dollars per hour than many of them therefore we basically have our own slaves.

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@farmerman,

farmerman wrote:

Living well from your own efforts is the best way to show the other guy that hes full of ****. Course Hawkeye has recently said hes a socialist so he thinks whats yours is negotiable

No. Individuals don't have anything except by the grace ot the collective. What is "yours" is for now and by permission. What tommorrow looks like who can say.

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@hawkeye10,

"By permission?" Where do you live? In Cuba or North Korea?

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@hawkeye10,

hawk, Please answer the question.

Quote:

hawk claims I'm living at the "expense of the young." I'd like for him to prove that! Another hawk claim that belongs in the dumpster.

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@hawkeye10,

A Pullitzer says nothing about his economic knowledge. And it certainly says nothing about his knowledge of taxation and how deferred tax assets work which he clearly knows nothing about.

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Where is the US economy headed?

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