Where is the US economy headed?

@hawkeye10,

Not true; the feds have closed many banks. I think the count this year is about 35 or more.

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

Home prices have shown increases for six straight months; a good indication that our economy is on the mends.

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@cicerone imposter,

cicerone imposter wrote:

Home prices have shown increases for six straight months; a good indication that our economy is on the mends.

Houshold debt is expanding faster than at any time post Great Recession, a good indicator that it is not. Wages decreased 2.5% after inflation last year, a good indicator that it is not. The wealth inequity in this nation between the classes got a lot worse last year, contunuing a trend of a few decades, a good indicator that it is not. Three times a many people gave up looking for work last month as got jobs, a good indicator that it is not..and so on and so on.

You live in a warped and delusional world CI.

1 Reply

@hawkeye10,

Increasing household debt is seen as a sign of recovery, not what you posit. And wages are growing pretty well this year -

http://seekingalpha.com/article/883191-wage-and-salary-growth-is-accelerating

So, yeah. Do you really think that you are listened to here at A2k as a source of accurate information about matters fiscal?

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

I seriously doubt that there has been ANY inflation adjusted wage increase since this FY started in march, but feel free to prove me wrong. Last year was horible, this we know. Also, the banks are getting ready for another great purge of high paying jobs, and this is after a half million jobs have already been lost in that sector post GR.

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@hawkeye10,

Watch the first ten minutes of this video to see what happens when banks dictate fiscal policy in a healthy economy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQHo8l92U3U

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@hawkeye10,

hawk, This ones for you. http://www.gobankingrates.com/financial-news/study-97-employers-polled-increase-salaries-2012/

According to recent media reports, our economy and consumer confidence is growing. Most who lost in 2008 have recovered most of what they have lost, and their debts have been reduced. I think the new economy will be where unemployment will settle at higher rates for the future. Those who have saved and have good jobs will be the foundation on which our economy will slowly grow.

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@cicerone imposter,

CI, they don't even have a "who are we" link on that con-artist show.

"97% of employers polled?" Very amusing.

Your link mentions a Mercer poll.

This is from Mercer's website.

Listen in. http://www.multimanager.mercer.com.au/pages/1418190

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@Builder,

From SHRM.

Quote:

Forecasted 2012 U.S. Base Salary Increases Remain Steady
Pay raises not expected to keep pace with inflation
7/8/2011 By Stephen Miller, CEBS

U.S. employees can expect median pay increases of 3 percent in 2012, according to research by Hay Group, a pay consultancy. While these increases are consistent with forecasted base salary increases for 2011 that were reported in June 2010, they are well below the 4 percent increases seen from 2005 to 2008.

After factoring in annualized consumer price index growth at 3.6 percent, the resulting pay movement for 2012 is a net loss of 0.6 percentage points.

According to Hay Group’s research, 3 percent pay increases are being reported for executives, middle management, supervisory and clerical positions. And this picture is relatively consistent across most industry sectors.

“Even though the economy is recovering, the stagnant growth in pay increases indicates employees’ pockets will likely be permanently affected by the Great Recession,” said Jeff Blair, Hay Group’s U.S. reward information services leader. “Many organizations froze salaries or limited pay increases during the downturn, and as a result, employees who are relatively new to the workforce will see their long-term earning potential significantly impacted.”

IMHO, the .6% loss to inflation is somewhat mis-represented because the big ticket loans interest rates are at its lowest, and many households watch their budgets more closely. That's the reason outstanding loan balances are down, mortgage defaults are down, and people are purchasing cars at higher levels every year.

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@cicerone imposter,

Who is SHRM? and why are you quoting their forecast from 2011?

Links, please.

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@Builder,

Sorry I didn't include the link earlier, because my search came up with the following that is different from the earlier post.

http://www.shrm.org/hrdisciplines/compensation/Articles/Pages/ConsistentPay.aspx

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@cicerone imposter,

Board of directors for SHRM includes
Director-at-Large
James A. Kaitz
President and CEO
AFP (Association for Financial Professionals)
Bethesda, MD

AFP is an activist group founded by the notorious Koch brothers, who are attempting to take over congress through Citizens' United tactics, and are happy to be polluting America, and killing Americans with their pollution practices.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CPmNqdRzMmk

You sure can pick 'em, CI.

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@Builder,

Your addressing the messenger but not the issue being discussed, namely wage increases. If you can challenge the report on wage increases for 2012, I'll continue this discussion. Otherwise, you're running up the wrong hill.

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

If wages aren't expected to keep pace with inflation, and due to the lowest interest rates in history (and further reductions with QE3) inflation should also be static, what is there to debate?

Wages for workers have dropped to an all-time low compared to those of the executive class. Again, what is there to debate?

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@Builder,

This data shows the pattern before the GFC. Houston, we have a problem.

Link here

In 2005, the average CEO in the United States earned 262 times the pay of the average worker, the second-highest level of this ratio in the 40 years for which there are data. In 2005, a CEO earned more in one workday (there are 260 in a year) than an average worker earned in 52 weeks.
The 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s have been prosperous times for top U.S. executives, especially relative to other wage earners. This can be seen by examining the increased divergence between CEO pay and an average worker’s pay over time, as shown in Figure A. In 1965, U.S. CEOs in major companies earned 24 times more than an average worker; this ratio grew to 35 in 1978 and to 71 in 1989. The ratio surged in the 1990s and hit 300 at the end of the recovery in 2000. The fall in the stock market reduced CEO stock-related pay (e.g., options) causing CEO pay to moderate to 143 times that of an average worker in 2002. Since then, however, CEO pay has exploded and by 2005 the average CEO was paid $10,982,000 a year, or 262 times that of an average worker ($41,861).

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@Builder,

The debate is about consumers making more right decisions about their spending and savings - even when their wages are not keeping up with inflation.

The consumer confidence level jumped 9 points last month - even when we all know that wages have not kept up with inflation. That's the answer.

You still haven't provided any credible source to challenge what I posted about average wage increases for 2012. Your ad hominem about the messenger has no value.

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@cicerone imposter,

Another good economic report; the housing industry is showing more strength with higher prices across most of the country except in the south.

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@cicerone imposter,

Let me guess, your Uncle Dave told you that?

You demand evidence while providing none yourself.

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@Builder,

No, if you had bothered to just type "higher prices for homes," you would have gotten thousands of hits. Current news too!

From CNNMoney.

Quote:

Home prices rebound
By Chris Isidore @CNNMoney September 25, 2012: 10:11 AM ET

Home prices are back to 2003 levels in the latest sign of an improved housing market.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- In another sign of a turnaround in the long-battered real estate market, average home prices rebounded in July to the same level as they were nine years ago.
According to the closely watched S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index, which covers more than 80% of the housing market in the United States, the typical home price in July rose 1.6% compared to the previous month.

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@cicerone imposter,

I typed "economic recovery in the US of A" and got this in fourth position on the first page.

Quote:

US economic recovery is a dangerous mirage

Unlike the eurozone and the UK, where a double-dip recession is already under way, the US has undergone even more public sector releveraging - effectively stealing growth from the future

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2012/jul/20/us-economic-growth-mirage-roubini

And CI, if you think that corporate-owned media will be giving you an un-biased view of reality, explain why you would expect them to, please.

3 Replies

Where is the US economy headed?

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