I think the Labour scare tactics are working as well, chasing would-be LibDem voters back into its camp (using deceptive arguments, I'll add). So I dont think the Libdems will do as well as it may seem right now.
Besides, even on a 6,5% swing from Labour to Libdems, which wouldn't be entirely unthinkable with the resentments among old Labour voters, the Libdems would still only gain 15 seats, bringing 'em to 66. (See
the BBC Swingometer).
It's actually still from the Conservatives that the Libdems would stand to gain most. On a 6,5% swing from
Tories to Liberals, the Libdems would gain no less than 28 seats. But it's there that I'm sceptic.
It's all great and fine for the Libdems' outreach to disgruntled Labour voters to have Brian Sedgemore defecting to Kennedy. But what kind of message does the picture of Kennedy heralding this old Bennite send to the key marginals in the South, where the Libdems only got into a head-to-head with the Tories because the voters there considered even
mainstream Labour too leftwing?
I mean, Sedgemore opposed Michael Foot - from the
left. I doubt that whole scene - and all the related ones - has done much to boost Libdems chances re: a Conservative-to-Libdem swing.
Basically I don't think the Conservatives will lose much to 'em this time round. Especially because the acrimony Lab vs Lib rhetorics has taken on this week also discourages the tactical voting that might have Labour supporters helping the Libdems to unseat Tory MPs.
But I dont think Howard will win much either, not from the Libdems nor from Labour. It's great, in fact, that Howard's scare campaign on asylum-seekers, the kind that served rightwing populists so horrifyingly well elsewhere, has seemed to have zero effect on the overall polls in the UK. It'll be gratifying to see him lose and hopefully, thereafter be dumped.
The only surprise may lie in the way the Tory campaign has really honed in on a selection of marginals, with a very locally focused campaign. It did net Howard a surprise victory in Australia back then. Never know. Not enough to win the elections, for sure, but perhaps some individual surprise upsets.
Labour meanwhile will lose percentage points to the Libdems, but not as many as expected. And with the swingometer really only kicking in with a swing of over 10%, I dont see it resulting in many lost seats in any case. Which is a pity. If the Labour majority would be reduced to 50 or something, it would really empower the Labour dissidents. Dont think it'll happen.
Now, next question: do you think, should Blair end up with a three-digit majority after all, will he then again try to sideline Brown? Claim the victory as the proof people want Blairite New Labour after all, and attempt to stay in charge throughout the four years? Now there's something you'd want to preempt ...