The UK General Election 2005 Thread

Brown lifts Labour's hopes for big majority

· Observer poll shows Tony Blair ahead by seven points
· Hain lashes out at liberal middle-class dinner party critics

Gaby Hinsliff, political editor
Sunday April 10, 2005
The Observer

Tony Blair is back on course for a hefty election victory as disgruntled Labour supporters start rallying to Labour, according to a new poll carried out for The Observer.
Today's MORI poll, putting Labour seven points ahead among people certain to vote, will be seen as evidence of a 'Brown bounce', following the return of the Chancellor of the Exchequer to the campaign's centre stage.

The boost to Labour's fortunes reflects a greater willingness among supporters to turn out and vote, but unless that is sustained victory could still slip from its grasp.

With the mood among voters still highly volatile, cabinet minister Peter Hain launched a fierce attack on self-indulgent 'dinner party critics' among the liberal middle classes who are tempted to use the ballot box to punish Blair. He said that by doing so, they would only hurt the poorest, who were dependent on a Labour victory.

The leader had 'got the message' about their displeasure, Hain said, arguing that those who still disagreed over Iraq or civil liberties should reopen the arguments after the election.

'There's now a kind of dinner party critics who quaff shiraz or chardonnay and just sneeringly say, "You are no different from the Tories",' he said. 'Most of the people in this category are pretty comfortably off: it's not going to be the end of the world if they get a Tory government. In a working-class constituency like mine, this is a lifeline. It's not a luxury.'

Today's poll, which projects a commanding majority of 138 for Blair and would give Michael Howard's party only two extra seats if repeated at an election, will focus attention on the power of the partnership between Blair and Brown.

A focus group commissioned for The Observer reveals Blair has suffered badly from fading trust, while Brown is regarded as a 'safe pair of hands', reliable, straightforward and the real power behind the throne, helping explain why he has been recalled.

The two men will campaign jointly for the next three days on the twin issues of education and the economy, launching the party manifesto chapters dealing with both tomorrow. Teachers will be wooed with promises of better classroom discipline, tough penalties for pupils carrying knives in schools and a culture of 'respect' for their profession, in contrast to past pledges to root out weak teachers.

The pair will launch an economy pledge card, promising to maintain low inflation and interest rates and spread prosperity to all - although a promise not to raise income tax is likely to wait until the full manifesto is launched on Wednesday. Plans to unveil it in the Midlands are on hold amid the MG Rover crisis.

In a joint interview today, the two emphasise their togetherness and long history of joint working, with Blair comparing them to a married couple. 'The personal bond - like a marriage - is also a political bond which is founded on shared values and that common belief,' he says. He admits that 'occasionally you can disagree' but they share the same beliefs.

Blair will highlight plans to boost education spending every year of the next parliament in a speech today from his Sedgefield constituency in County Durham, while Brown will travel to the marginal seat of Shipley in West Yorkshire, highlighting plans to plough savings from reduced unemployment back into education.

Brown was persuaded to take a bigger role in the campaign after Blair dropped threats to sack him following the election: his power to woo back angry Labour voters is highlighted by The Observer focus group's findings.

One participant said that, without Brown beside Blair, the country would be 'in a state', while another said Brown reminded her of Yes, Prime Minister 's artful underling, Sir Humphrey, 'who was really running the show, but the Prime Minister thought he was doing it'.

Hain praised Brown's 'superhuman' job on the economy, but said the challenge was to persuade disaffected Labour voters of the risks of protest voting. He promised a third Labour term would be 'redistributionist' in approach, with pledges to boost social mobility expected in the manifesto, but quashed speculation of tax rises.

'I do not think that a progressive party, and certainly the Labour Party, can win an election on a platform of higher taxation.' Using tax revenues to create half a million more public service jobs 'is a form of redistribution', he said.

Hain was infuriated by calls in last week's New Statesman, owned by Labour MP Geoffrey Robinson, for voters to oust more than 40 Labour MPs to teach Blair a lesson. Accusing it of 'levelling a political machine-gun', he said that many of those singled out were precisely those whom progressives should support, including gay and female candidates.

Progressives should not use the election to send a message to Blair, he said: 'He's got the message. The really important message to send with your cross on the ballot paper is to say to the Tories that this sort of rabid right-wing platform is unacceptable.'

The Observer poll paints a mixed portrait of Britain after eight years of left-of-centre government. While a majority now supports tough immigration laws and the detention of terror suspects without trial, and one in five considers it acceptable to use information obtained under torture from terrorist suspects, views on tax are surprisingly liberal, with 59 per cent supporting using tax to narrow the gap between rich and poor. A majority also supports the expansion of public services, even at the expense of some increase in taxes.

Hain said the question of whether New Labour had changed the country was 'contradictory and complex': 'It's now unacceptable to be a racist, it's unacceptable for the police to have treated Stephen Lawrence's family in the way they did, it's unacceptable to discriminate against gays or lesbians.

'On the other side, immigration is the issue that dare not speak its name. I think the left ignores the way the Tories are exploiting these issues at their peril.'

The MORI poll was conducted on a sample of 1,004 people over 7-9 April

UN attacks Howard for 'false' claims on asylum

'Stick to the facts', refugee chief warns. 'I'm no racist' - Tory leader hits back
By Andy McSmith, Political Editor
10 April 2005


Michael Howard has been accused by the United Nations refugee agency of indulging in "political opportunism" and encouraging hatred of foreigners by dragging asylum-seekers into party politics.

The stinging rebuke comes ahead of Mr Howard's first speech since the official start of the election campaign, in which he will again put immigration into the centre of the political arena by accusing Tony Blair of wanting to "pussyfoot around" the issue. He will assert that "it's not racist to talk about immigration".

His words fly in the face of a sharply worded warning from the British representative of the UNHCR, Anne Dawson-Shepherd, who has accused the Conservatives of making false claims about asylum-seekers and has pleaded with them to "stick to the facts". "UNHCR is terribly worried as among some quarters the crisis rhetoric and lumping of asylum with immigration issues continues, often fuelled by thinly disguised xenophobia and political opportunism," she said.

Her statement was provoked by a false claim put out by the Conservatives in defence of their much ridiculed promise to set up offshore centres where asylum-seekers can be held while their claims are processed.

The Tories issued a press release claiming that the policy would cut the cost of immigration by £897m a year. It added: "The EU and the UNHCR have set up five pilot schemes for overseas processing centres in Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Libya."

But that claim has been flatly contradicted by Ms Dawson-Shepherd. "It is not correct that overseas processing centres have been established," she said. "Certainly this would not happen in countries with poor human rights records, which are also non-signatories of the 1951 Refugee Convention."

Mr Howard and his aides have vehemently rejected the suggestions that they are being "racist" by raising issues such as immigration, asylum, and Gypsy camps in an election campaign. They claim that the racism charge is being used by opponents to forestall criticism of government policy.

But that claim will come under attack today from an unexpected quarter. Charles Wardle, a former Tory immigration minister, will make a guest appearance at Labour headquarters to denounce Tory immigration policy as "unworkable".

In his speech at the Telford International Centre today, Mr Howard is due to say: "For too many years immigration has been a no-go area for political debate. If you said you thought that too many people were coming here, you were branded a racist. Let's be clear: it's not racist to criticise the system. It's just common sense.

"If we don't speak up now and have a proper debate about immigration we'll only help the bigots who preach racial hatred and the people-smugglers who profit from other people's misery. Mr Blair may want to pussyfoot around this issue, but I don't."

But Mr Wardle countered by saying: "I am not aware of anyone who has called him racist. This is just his attempt to try to stir the issue rather than deal with it. Instead of hiring an Australian spin doctor, he should hire some serious people who could work up a serious policy."

This will be a close election. It will also be an unfair one

By John Curtice
(Filed: 10/04/2005)

Labour's poll lead is much narrower than Tony Blair would have hoped, almost a week after he launched the election campaign.

His party's four-point advantage in our exclusive ICM poll is a statistically insignificant one point higher than the ICM poll published on Tuesday.

And it is well down on the eight-point lead that Labour enjoyed in ICM's previous poll in March.



This election is evidently going to be a much tighter contest than most commentators had anticipated - and Mr Howard's opportunity is clear.

Doubts about Mr Blair's record extend well beyond divisive issues such as Iraq to one of Labour's core issues: health. Only 39 per cent think that Labour has kept its promises on this matter, while 55 per cent think it has not.

And despite a lot of extra money being spent on the NHS, most voters do not think that this has resulted in a better service. For every voter who thinks that the NHS has got better there is another who thinks it has got worse.

The most common view, accepted by 40 per cent, is that the extra cash has not made any difference.

Such figures confirm that there is widespread disillusion with Labour. Mr Howard's challenge is to persuade the public that he could do better.

Despite the doubts on Labour's record, the Conservative Party trails its main rival by 11 points when voters are asked who has the best policies on health. In six of eight issues covered by our poll, the Conservatives are further behind Labour than the four-point deficit on vote intentions.

The Conservatives may be ahead on immigration and law and order but they cannot expect to win unless they spread their net wider.

Although Mr Blair's lead is only four points, that could still be enough to give him a majority of 114 on May 5. Even if the Tories were to close the gap completely, Mr Blair could still remain ensconced in No 10 Downing Street.

This is because the electoral system is hideously biased in Labour's favour. Labour seats have fewer voters in them than Conservative ones. While Scotland's Labour-dominated representation at Westminster will be cut at this election, this still leaves a significant problem in England, where the constituency boundaries are up to 14 years old.

Population movement out of the cities and into suburban and rural England has meant that the average Conservative constituency has grown more rapidly than the Labour one. At the last election there was already an average gap of nearly 5,000 voters - and it has increased over the past four years.

But redrawing England's boundaries would not be enough to remove the bias. Not only are there fewer people registered to vote in the average Labour constituency, turnout tends to be lower too.

In 2001, an average 56.8 per cent voted in Labour seats and 63.2 per cent in Conservative ones. As current polls indicate that Labour supporters are less likely to vote than Conservatives, it is doubtful that the gap will be narrower this time around.

At the same time, the Conservative vote is too evenly spread. When it collapsed in 1997, those seats where it had been strongest were worst affected. As a result the party lost many more seats than it otherwise would. No poll has detected the above-average increase in Conservative support in marginal seats that would be needed to reverse this pattern.

Equally, it seems inevitable that the Liberal Democrats will win more seats at the Conservatives' expense.

However, one pattern that disadvantages the Conservatives may be reversed on May 5.

In 1997 and 2001 many third-placed Liberal Democrat supporters switched to Labour to defeat the local Conservatives and sometimes succeeded. They seem less likely to do so this time as Liberal Democrat supporters no longer strongly prefer Labour to the Conservatives.

But even if this tactical vote does unwind it is only a small part of the Conservatives' problem. Its disappearance might reduce the target Mr Howard needs to reach in order to deny Mr Blair a majority and produce a hung parliament from three points to one.

Such an outcome is still conceivable, but there is much for Mr Howard to do to make it happen.

ICM interviewed a random sample of 1,012 adults aged 18 and over by telephone on April 7 and 8, 2005. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

• John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University

Blair's deal to stitch up leadership for Brown

'There's now a kind of dinner party critics who quaff shiraz or chardonnay and just sneeringly say, "You are no different from the Tories",' he said. 'Most of the people in this category are pretty comfortably off: it's not going to be the end of the world if they get a Tory government. In a working-class constituency like mine, this is a lifeline. It's not a luxury.'

The Observer poll paints a mixed portrait of Britain after eight years of left-of-centre government. While a majority now supports tough immigration laws and the detention of terror suspects without trial, and one in five considers it acceptable to use information obtained under torture from terrorist suspects, views on tax are surprisingly liberal, with 59 per cent supporting using tax to narrow the gap between rich and poor. A majority also supports the expansion of public services, even at the expense of some increase in taxes.

That IS an interesting site, nimh. My constituency, City of York, is Labour-held, with a 13k+ (28%) majority at the 2001 election.

Blair to fight for 'yes' vote on Europe

By Colin Brown, Deputy Political Editor
13 April 2005


Tony Blair will take the biggest gamble of his premiership today by committing the Government to fight for a "yes" vote in the referendum on the European constitution.

Some Labour candidates said they suspected that the Prime Minister's determination to go ahead with the referendum regardless of the French referendum result at the end of next month could be Mr Blair's exit strategy.

"If he loses the referendum, he will have to go," said one former Labour MP. "And if he wins, he will leave on a high."

Mr Blair said he would serve a full term before stepping down, but if he goes ahead with a referendum in 2006, he could go within 18 months of a general election victory.

Robin Cook, the former foreign secretary, said he believed Mr Blair would go "sooner rather than later" because power was clearly shifting to Gordon Brown.

Mr Cook said he had been told by a Blair aide that after the election Mr Blair would order the removal vans for Mr Brown to leave the Treasury. But as the campaign has unfolded Mr Brown has become more important to Mr Blair's survival. "Some day, that removal van will appear outside the Treasury. But the irony is that it will be there to shift Brown's files into No 10, Mr Cook said in the London Evening Standard. "The first week of the election campaign suggests that day may come sooner rather than later."

The manifesto to be unveiled today will tie the hands of the whole Government, including all cabinet ministers and lower ranking ministers, to campaign for a "yes" vote.

The refusal to allow ministers a free vote has caused a row, and would lead to sackings if any ministers broke the line to campaign for a "no" vote.

Some Labour figures have objected, pointing out that Harold Wilson allowed his ministers a free vote when he called the referendum on Britain's entry into Europe.

But the wording of the manifesto means that ministers could be sacked for opposing the constitution in the referendum campaign. "The manifesto does contain a commitment which is binding on the Government," said a senior Labour figure. "It makes it clear that ministers will be expected to support a 'yes' campaign."

Few members of the Government openly oppose the constitution but some are privately sceptical about the attempt to rewrite the legal basis for the EU by incorporating existing treaties in a single constitution.

The decision to force all ministers to campaign for a "yes" vote caused protests when the manifesto was discussed at a private meeting of trade union leaders, cabinet ministers and members of Labour's ruling national executive.

Dissidents were angry when they were told that they could not amend the manifesto, and it was a "take it or leave it" ultimatum. Dennis Skinner, the anti-European left-wing MP, protested that ministers should be given a free vote as they had been under Wilson. "It's completely unworkable," said another senior party source.

Mr Blair faces an uphill task to convince the British electorate to support the new constitution, and ministerial colleagues fear it will become a chance to give Mr Blair a "bloody nose" after the election.

As a result, some of Mr Blair's allies believe he may be using it to prepare for his own departure earlier than expected.

There was also a row with the RMT transport union over the failure of the manifesto to leave open the possibility of a move to a publicly owned railway.

Some on the left are also likely to criticise the manifesto for failing to commit Labour to building more council houses. Among the sweeteners, there will be discounts on council tax for volunteers.

Some ministers are sceptical about another commitment to allow the expansion of city academies into suburbs to cater for middle-class families. One minister accused Mr Blair of focusing too much on the "few" instead of the "many".

The manifesto will also contain a commitment to a free vote on a reformed House of Lords.

Mr Cook said it was a sign of the Prime Minister's growing weakness that he had been forced by his Cabinet to accept a commitment in the manifesto for a largely elected House of Lords, as reported in The Independent.

"I know just how hard Tony Blair must have swallowed before signing off that policy. He always wanted a chamber he could appoint, and will only have accepted elections by the public if he no longer feels strong enough to resist the demand.

"Nor do the consequences stop with the manifesto. The more the Labour campaign hits the potholes on the election trail, the less we have heard defiant noises from No 10 that the third term will be 'unremittingly New Labour'. To many Labour MPs, that always sounded more of a threat than a promise," Mr Cook said in the Evening Standard.

Criticising Mr Blair for introducing top-up fees in the last parliament, Mr Cook said: "Next time round, Blair will have lost the authority to sweep Labour MPs behind him in pursuing any more such dramatic and unpopular personal initiatives."

22 days to go

* The Tories admitted their promised £4bn tax cuts would not take effect until next year.

* Former foreign secretary Robin Cook predicted Tony Blair would stand down to make way for Gordon Brown "sooner rather than later".

* Ed Matts,the Tory candidate in Dorset South, apologised after being caught out doctoring a picture of himself with an asylum-seeker.

* The Green Party unveiled its manifesto, with pledges to bring in "eco-taxes" and renationalise the railways.

* Plaid Cymru lauched its campaign yesterday with a vow to be the "voice of Wales in Westminster".

Dont get me started on that again.....it got me into trouble last time (sorry Craven).....NOT UDO SPILLER, but if I had a choice of anagram, it would probably be Dell Slurpo.

Meanwhile that other anagram, Welch Radio Ham (leader of the Conservatives) has been on our local wireless station, oiling plausibly...and thousands of orange diamonds have sprung up around Totnes - the Guardian reported:

"Mr Kennedy, 45, was said to be "very excited" about the imminent birth of his first child.
Party workers immediately cancelled an afternoon visit to an arts college in Totnes."

The morning after the night before



Labour Suite Window, St Thomas' Hospital, London.

Liberal leader Charles Kennedy, today proudly showed off his new born son Lapharoig, to loyal fans who had camped out all night under his wifes' labour suite balcony.

Kennedy was due to launch his parties Election Manifesto in London this morning but all hell broke loose, his mobile ringing out as he met with party faithfuls in the snug of a rundown pub in Totnes, Devon last evening.

Kennedy had been mid-slur, discussing the Liberal policy of assassinating dogs in the care of homosexual gentlemen. His battle weary press pack followers made several attempts to help Kennedy find his jacket. The incessant ringing of his telephone caused the tired and emotional Leader of the UKs' gaylovingguntotingbottomspankingdrinkloving Party to fall off his chair but somehow answering the urgent call and exclaiming "Ma burdz upra shtick an ahm gonnae be a faither".

Kennedy was stretchered out to the back seat of his colourful Battle Bus as a coterie of limp wristed members of his giggling audience waved him on his merry way. Several roadside stops later, Kennedys' bladder by now as dry as camels' big toe and his vomit splattered markers in traditional Liberal yellow leaving a trail behind him, Kennedy staggered into St Thomas' hospital at approximately 11.18pm falling into the arms of his pretty wifes' medical team.

Kennedy was placed on a caffeine drip and after several buckets of iced water had been tossed over his crumpled heap of a body a bemused Kennedy burst into tears at the plaintive whimpers announcing the arrival in the world of his newborn son.

As the sun rose today, slumbering fans could be seen stirring from their makeshift camp, an air of eager anticipation swirling like a Western Isles midge ridden morning mist. Fans gazed expectantly up at the first floor window hoping to catch a glimpse of their hero. They were not disappointed as a bleary eyed Kennedy peered out trying to focus on where he had left his legs.

Frenzied fans began to chant for a glimpse of the resurgent Liberal parties' heir apparent and at 9.05 Kennedy junior made his entrance, much to the delight of the waiting crowd.

Liberal Party spokesman Tim Razzell has confirmed that party stalwart Menzies Campbell will deputise for Kennedy as he takes two days off to tend to his new found parental responsibilities. Razzell confirmed that "Charles is very much the new man and is well used to dealing with the everyday tasks of bottles and nappies".

SNP sees dislike of Blair as key to success

Alex Salmond, the Scottish National party leader, offered to pay Tony Blair's bus fare to tour key Scottish marginals yesterday, taunting the prime minister by labelling him the SNP's "secret weapon".

As Mr Blair and Gordon Brown made a flying visit to Edinburgh to rouse Scottish voters, Mr Salmond claimed his party's support was boosted every time the Labour leader appeared in Scotland. "We hope that he will be making many unhappy returns north of the border," he said.

Scotland offers to take rejected migrants

Talks between home secretary and first minister on those failing to meet criteria for entry to England

Ministers in Scotland are challenging the UK government's new immigration policy by pressing the home secretary to offer potential newcomers a home in their country if they fail criteria for entering England.

The Guardian has learned that the first minister, Jack McConnell, has held talks with Charles Clarke in an attempt to modify a proposed entry system so that prospective immigrants, who run the risk of being excluded by tough UK entry rules, will be given extra points for moving to Scotland.

In an interview with today's Society Guardian, Mr McConnell reveals that the home secretary is "open to the suggestion" of what amounts to a twin-track immigration system for the UK. [..] "Scotland is different on this ... we are prepared to take a lead, and the political argument, and promote Scotland on that basis ..."

[..] Although the home secretary recently announced plans to curb economic immigration by low-skilled workers outside the EU, the Scottish executive fears the proposed measures will undermine an initiative designed to bring 8,000 immigrants to Scotland annually.

The initiative, known as Fresh Talent, is seen by ministers in Scotland's Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition as a way of reversing a sharp population decline - on some estimates the most rapid in Europe.

In five years' time, population is projected to fall below the symbolic 5 million level. Mr McConnell says reversing this represents the "single biggest challenge facing Scotland".

Already the Scottish executive has established a relocation advisory service in Glasgow, which is helping to promote visa permits in Scotland. And this summer a new system will kick in, allowing overseas graduates in Scottish universities two extra years to stay in Scotland as a prelude to a longer work permit.

Mr McConnell says this represents his executive's "first big initiative" on the immigration front.

Only 2% of Scotland's population - around 100,000 - are from ethnic minorities. This compared with 9% in England and 29% in London.

We are, y'know, the robots

By Editor / Photographs 03:15pm

The cabinet, with Tony Blair in the centre, present the Labour manifesto. Photograph: Graeme Robertson/Getty

When the Labour party big guns appeared lined up at separate podiums to launch their manifesto, one of the attending journalists asked if it was deliberate that the effect was the same as the set of the television show The Weakest Link. Personally, I was struck by the similarity with the live performances of Dusseldorf's top pop combo Kraftwerk, as evidenced by this photograph.
Jon Dennis



Comments

It'd make a great caption competion! Blair "which of these guys do you want to rule, koff, I mean lead you when I step down?"

Posted by leon on April 13, 2005 03:27 PM.

"We are the weakest link!"

Posted by Dave Hansell on April 13, 2005 03:41 PM.

"No really! The weapons WERE this big."

Posted by Dave Hansell on April 13, 2005 03:42 PM.

Taxes will rise this much.

Posted by Snafu on April 13, 2005 04:18 PM.

It still fits the now-traditional "Gordon stifles yawn, Prescott has face like thunder" template, mind.

Posted by Popzeus on April 13, 2005 04:21 PM.

Look, the next one who calls John "Two jabs" will get thumped.

Posted by Snafu on April 13, 2005 05:05 PM.

"Hey. Look. I can tell bigger whoppers than this."

Posted by Dave Hansell on April 13, 2005 05:06 PM.

Prescott in particular looks like he's auditioning for http://www.beckettonfilm.com/plays/play/index.html

Posted by Andrew on April 13, 2005 05:24 PM.

Is it publicity for the London Olympics bid?

Posted by Steven Alderson on April 13, 2005 05:50 PM.

is tony saying 'can you guess who the next pm is?'

Posted by chris bird on April 13, 2005 08:48 PM.