14
   

N Korea and the Donald

 
 
Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Tue 12 Jun, 2018 04:17 am
According to the CBC, they've got a deal. Credit to Trump for growing up enough to come through on this. More credit is due to Kim for leaving behind the block-headed, Stalinist attitudes of his father and grandfather. Kim is the real statesman here. Of course, we now have to wait to see if the deal is real, and if both sides keep their promises.
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Jun, 2018 05:50 am
According to the BBC the joint declaration is incredibly vague, and Kim hasn't signed up to anything he's not already agreed with South Korea previously. Unlike the Iran deal there's absolutely no mention of inspections.

China, worried about losing influence, has already started loosening sanctions on the border.

As for all the hoo hah about verifying disarmament that's a joke. NK is mountainous with v poor infrastructure and v little lighting. They could be any amount of nuclear warheads hidden away and not declared. The Americans can only verify what's declared.

Irreversible? Also meaningless, unless all the nuclear scientists are removed or lobotomised they still have the knowledge and expertise to make another nuclear device.
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Jun, 2018 05:59 am
Al Jazeera:
US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed an agreement on Tuesday pledging to support a peaceful resolution to seven decades of hostilities between the two countries and a de-escalation of nuclear tensions.

Under the agreement, the US committed to provide security guarantees to its old enemy while North Korea "commits to work towards complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula".

That provision falls short of the hoped-for "complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearisation" of North Korea that had been urged by the US and its allies in the build-up to Tuesday's talks.

Trump defended the agreement at a press conference on Tuesday afternoon, saying both he and Kim are committed to its provisions.

"Today is the beginning of an arduous process," Trump told reporters. "Our eyes are wide open, but peace is always worth the effort, especially in this case."

Trump said economic sanctions against the country will remain in effect until North Korea reverses its nuclear programme, and added there are no short-term plans to reduce the number of US troops - some 28,500 - stationed in South Korea.

Trump and Kim capped a one-day peace summit by signing the agreement without immediately disclosing the terms. Trump stayed on to detail the agreement at a later news conference while Kim left the summit for a return flight to Pyongyang.

Four major points covered in the Trump-Kim agreement:


The US and North Korea will pursue better relations "in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity".
The US and North Korea "will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace" on the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea commits to "work towards denuclearisation".
The countries agree to recover and repatriate POW/MIA remains dating back to the Korean War.
Earlier, at a signing ceremony, Kim said: "We had a historic meeting and decided to leave the past behind. The world will see a major change."

Trump added: "A lot of work and a lot of preparation went into this. The meeting went better than expected and no one could've expected this."

As both leaders stood on a hotel veranda to say their final goodbyes, Trump said: "We'll meet again. We will meet many times."

Analysts are divided over the agreement, with some saying it does nothing to avoid repeating past mistakes in similar attempts at a denuclearisation deal.

Others see the summit as a welcome reversal to decades of hostility and harsh language between the US and North Korea.

"An important first step has been taken with the historic agreement even if it is scanty on details," said Eugene Tan, associate professor of law at Singapore Management University.

"Much work remains to be done and there will be obstacles ahead for sure given what is at stake for all stakeholders."

'Short on details'
Geoffrey See, a founder of the Choson Exchange, a Singapore-based non-profit that organises business workshops in North Korea, said: "The summit is still short on details on how both sides will achieve their objectives. But the summit has reversed a process [by] putting trust, relationship and aspiration at the start rather than at the end."

Tuesday's summit, which began about 9am local time and ended with the signing shortly before 2pm (06:00 GMT), was punctuated by handshakes, smiles and upbeat comments from both Trump and Kim.

READ MORE
Trump-Kim Singapore summit: All the latest updates
Trump met Kim on Singapore's Sentosa Island at the Capella Hotel, a former British colonial barracks converted into a high-end hotel, starting with a carefully choreographed handshake greeting against a backdrop of US and North Korean flags.

Following initial comments to reporters Tuesday morning, Trump and Kim went into a private meeting accompanied solely by their translators, then a larger meeting with aides to both men, and finally a working lunch.

Before heading into the private meeting with Trump, Kim said: "The way to come to here was not easy. The old prejudices and practices worked as obstacles on our way forward, but we overcame all of them and we are here today."

Tom Benner
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  2  
Reply Tue 12 Jun, 2018 06:22 am
Quote:
US President Donald Trump says his historic talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un that ended in a joint agreement were "tremendous".

The signed document includes a pledge from Mr Kim to rid the Korean peninsula of nuclear weapons.

But in an extraordinary media conference later, Mr Trump announced details not in the paper.

He said he would halt US military exercises in South Korea, something widely seen as a concession.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44450739<br />
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Jun, 2018 06:24 am
@izzythepush,
That link gets a 404.
edgarblythe
 
  2  
Reply Tue 12 Jun, 2018 06:26 am
I went to the BBC site and got this summary:

Summary
US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un sign an agreement in Singapore
North Korea "commits to work towards the complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula" but analysts say it has not made specific commitments
Mr Trump later defends what he has achieved and stuns observers by saying the US will stop war games with South Korea that infuriate the North
He says Mr Kim agreed to destroy a "major missile engine testing site" and that sanctions won't be lifted until progress is made on denuclearisation
The summit is the first time a sitting US president has ever met a North Korean leader
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Jun, 2018 06:38 am
These are countries that are still technically at war. However, it may be historic that they are meeting, but no one should think that this is a deal.

US President Donald Trump and South Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed an agreement on Tuesday but this is likely going to be a long and bumpy road ahead.

The other main observation is how fast this has moved.

Today is 364 days since Otto Warmbier, a student the US accuses North Korea of torturing, was brought back to the United States and then died.

If you think of that period of last summer, it was probably the tensest period in the relationship between North and South Korea over the last 70 years.

Then more nuclear tests and missile tests followed, answered by Trump with language about "fire and fury", threatening to "totally destroy" North Korea.

We sort of know what then happened.

Al Jazeera learned that the day after Trump spoke at the General Assembly in September, the North Korean foreign minister met Antonio Guterres, the UN secretary-general, saying the UN could send a senior UN official to Pyongyang.

Weeks later Jeffrey Feldman, the then-political affairs chief of the UN went to North Korea, where he said that Kim made an overture, suggesting that he should offer an olive branch by sending a delegation to the Olympics in South Korea.

This move opened up diplomacy between South Korea and North Korea.

The South Koreans got the CIA involved and they led the US initiative, leading to the secret meeting between Pompeo and Kim in Pyongyang at Easter, where it was revealed that diplomacy had reached a different pace.

Pompeo returned to Pyongyang, on-off contacts continued, which have led to this historic summit today.

This was probably the biggest day of diplomacy in the last decade, apart from one other day, when the JCPOA, or Iran deal, was finally signed in Vienna in July 2015.

And that was the deal that Trump has pulled out of, setting himself an extremely high bar for the Korean diplomatic process.

Trump needed to find something better than the Iran deal. All of this makes it fascinating, interesting, historic, but very much in its early stages.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Jun, 2018 08:02 am
After weeks of uncertainty about the planned US-North Korea summit, US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed a "comprehensive" document. Kim claimed that "the world will see a major change", while Trump described him as "a very talented man" who "loved his country very much", and appeared willing to invite him to visit the White House.

The document apparently embodies four pillars: first, the two sides commit to establishing "new … relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity"; second, they will "join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula"; third, North Korea reaffirms the "April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration …[and] commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula;" and fourth, they "commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified".

Follow-up negotiations are also planned under the agreement.

READ MORE
Trump-Kim Singapore summit: All the latest updates
The possibility of a deal was signalled by Kim Jong-un at the beginning of the summit when he said, "The old prejudices and practices worked as obstacles on our way forward, but we've overcome all of them, and we are here today."

However, the text of the document does not contain much that is new. It merely recites already documented positions. Its real significance lies in the context in which it was signed and the accompanying statements by the two leaders.

In this sense, what "old prejudices" is Kim referring to and what "change" is the world likely to see? Are the two leaders simply promising to stop using characterisations such as "little Rocketman" or "mentally deranged US dotard" and avoid threatening to unleash "fire and fury"?

Or is the North Korean leader referring to deeper, older prejudices that have held back his country for decades? If so, is it really possible for him to overcome them and still stay in power?

The answer to these questions depends on a good understanding of how central these "prejudices" are to the very raison d'etre of Kim Jong-un-ism and his regime's survival.

If a transition towards the Chinese model is what the future holds, Trump might be doing China a massive favour.


His grandfather, Kim Il-sung, instituted a cult of personality in addition to a centralised system of self-reliance and extreme nationalism - "juche". This ideology requires North Koreans to build their country by relying on their own resources under the guidance of the supreme leader. Following his death, his son and successor, Kim Jong-il, devised another doctrine to consolidate power, "songun", or military first.

Kim Jong-un clearly embraces this doctrine - as he must to survive. In 2013, he described songun as a "revolutionary idea" that his father built by "the strengthening of the KPA [Korean People's Army] … as the buttress, the main force, of our revolution and achieved the historic victory in the grim anti-imperialist, anti-US showdown in defence of the country's security and socialism by training the KPA to be the army of the leader boundlessly faithful to the cause …"

Surely, juche and songun qualify as old prejudices and represent obstacles to cooperation. Will North Korea jettison such core values?


WATCH Trump-Kim timeline: From insults to handshakes (2:45)

If you think these are not enough, consider the "Ten Principles in Establishing Party's Monolithic Ideological System," which remains the manifesto for the regime. Article 2.1 states "The Great Leader Comrade Kim Il-sung is a genius of the revolution, the sun of the people and a legendary hero whom we must respect unendingly, revere eternally and come to with the greatest happiness and glory …"

Article 4.3 commits people to "Unconditionally accept, treat as a non-negotiable condition, and decide everything" upon Kim Il Sung's "instructions" and in every act think only about his "greatness". Further, article 4.10 pledges to "Fight with all one's will against anti-Party and anti-revolutionary thinking trends that have its origin in capitalistic ideas …" and retain "the purity of revolutionary thought and Juche ideas of the Great Leader."

In other words, the "old prejudices" that are obstacles to cooperation are intrinsic to the North Korean state. If Kim Jong-un has to overcome them, he will have to accept the prospect of a much-diminished role in the future.

He knows that if North Koreans are told that there is a way to prosperity other than through self-reliance and that the imperialist US approach is not so bad after all, this risks undermining the regime.

Citizens might ask for justice for past wrongs and seek to overthrow the supreme leader because the entire edifice upon which his rule rests would be invalid. And there is plenty for Kim to fear. North Korea has a record of horrific human rights abuses. Tens of thousands are in prison and disappearances, executions, torture, rape, and forced labour are widespread.

OPINION
How 11 US presidents failed to make peace with North Korea
Michael Pembroke
by Michael Pembroke
No rational leader would risk being held accountable for such crimes. The best-case scenario is that Kim Jong-un will seek a soft landing away from the Ten Principles and songun rather than a crash-and-burn outcome. That might mean a transition away from self-reliance and towards opening up the economy while maintaining pervasive social controls a la China in the era of Deng Xiaoping.

Even that carries significant personal risks to himself and the regime. Therefore, much like China, Kim is likely to retain his military capability. In such a scenario, Tiananmen Square-style events might occur. As all the historical evidence shows, once people experience freedom, they are reluctant to accept servitude.

Rights beget demands for more rights. This begs the obvious question: will the West stand by if such a crackdown occurs when North Korea opens up and its citizens demand more?

So, the sensible conclusion is that Kim Jong-un's idea of overcoming old prejudices hints at a much more limited conception of obstacles to North Korea's integration into the global economy. The farthest extreme of what is possible is post-Deng China: an open economy governed by a dictatorship.

If a transition towards the Chinese model is what the future holds, Trump might be doing China a massive favour. Kim Jong-un will naturally seek guidance from the Chinese to script such an outcome.

Once North Korea opens up and sanctions are lifted, Chinese enterprises will seize the opportunity to secure highly lucrative deals - from building infrastructure to supplying weapons to exploiting North Korea's cheap labour for its own purposes. This will not advance US interests.

In the end, if Trump succeeds in opening the door, his biggest challenge will be to stop China from coming in after him to steal the family jewels. That will be a presidency-defining transaction for the "Dealer-in-Chief".

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial stance.
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Jun, 2018 09:42 am
@edgarblythe,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44450739

Is this any better?
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Jun, 2018 10:00 am
@izzythepush,
Perfect
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  3  
Reply Tue 12 Jun, 2018 03:23 pm
While there was little substance in the summit declaration, Kim came out as the winner of this set of talks. He basked in global stardom and managed to enhance his regime's legitimacy by engaging in high-stakes diplomacy with the support of all major powers. Thus the summit undoubtedly helped the Korean regime partially lift the veil of its profound international isolation.

Now, all key players, from China to South Korea, Singapore and the US, have a direct stake in ensuring that the peace negotiations move forward and as smoothly as possible. As a reward for the summit, Trump is expected to suspend joint military exercises with South Korea and contemplate the prospect of drawing down US military presence in the Korean Peninsula.

The announcement has provoked displeasure in Seoul, but it is music to the ears of the North Korean regime, which has managed to secure concessions from the US without necessarily agreeing to a clear denuclearisation plan. The summit was, in many ways, war by other means.

With Trump constantly heaping praise on the North Korean leader and dangling the prospect of full normalisation of bilateral ties, the reclusive regime is gradually and stealthily dispensing with its "axis of evil" pariah status. There is even talk of a Nobel Peace Prize for Trump and Kim.

As a result, the regime change agenda is definitively off the table for now. This could, over time, also weaken international resolve and the willingness of many nations, particularly outside the West, to implement international sanctions against North Korea.

Thus, the summit was a big win for Kim, giving him a deep measure of strategic respite. Over the coming months, the North Korean regime will explore its next move in chess-like, technical, and potentially drawn-out negotiations towards a final and enduring agreement.

At stake is not only Kim's regime survival, but also the welfare of his people who are desperate for greater economic engagement with the world.

Al Jazeera
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  3  
Reply Tue 12 Jun, 2018 03:30 pm
This appears to be a fantastic photo op for both leaders and I think that’s about it. That “very very comprehensive” agreement was a joke. I think the Iran deal was 110 pages and this appears to be less than what Obama and Kerry got Iran to agree to. I think Trump not shitting himself will be enough to raise his poll numbers.

What happens over the next 5 months and into the 2020 election will be what matters next.
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  2  
Reply Tue 12 Jun, 2018 03:32 pm
This deal will be compared to the Iran deal that he and Fox News constantly railed against.

Wonder how he’ll compare to his own criticisms against Obama.
Wonder if any of his supporters will care.
rosborne979
 
  4  
Reply Tue 12 Jun, 2018 03:39 pm
@ehBeth,
ehBeth wrote:

NK definitely winning this round.

They won before they went in. They achieved nuclear status and forced everyone’s hand.

They improve their hand by meeting with superpowers.

It remains to be seen if they will actually give up anything.
0 Replies
 
rosborne979
 
  2  
Reply Tue 12 Jun, 2018 03:45 pm
@maporsche,
But it was a great show, which is what they both wanted, one for the benefit of his country and the other for himself.
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  2  
Reply Wed 13 Jun, 2018 01:26 am
Opinion piece on Singapore Summit, more at link.

Quote:
Trump-Kim summit: Deciphering what happened in Singapore

Donald Trump arrived in Singapore promising to make history.

That he did by shaking Kim Jong-un's hand for the world's cameras - becoming the first sitting US leader to meet his North Korean counterpart.

But what have they really achieved, what are the implications and what might happen next?

We asked four experts for their take.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44451587

(I've checked the link but if anyone has problems accessing it, let me know.)
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  3  
Reply Wed 13 Jun, 2018 04:21 am
I agree with Roswell's assessment, and will go farther and say that after seeing the details, it is clear to me that Plump was suckered. He offered concrete actions, such as ditching the war games with South Korea (without consulting or even informing President Moon). Kim has offered nothing concrete, and really doesn't have to do anything he doesn't want to do. Tillerson was right, President Plumpis a moron.
oralloy
 
  -3  
Reply Wed 13 Jun, 2018 04:43 am
@Setanta,
No big deal. If Trump does not get denuclearization from North Korea, he'll probably bomb them instead.

Same with Iran if they resume their nuclear weapons program.
0 Replies
 
revelette1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Jun, 2018 06:35 am
@Setanta,
Perhaps Trump should have made time to sleep before having such an historic meeting with North Korea. It might have helped.
revelette1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Jun, 2018 06:46 am
Was the Trump-Kim summit a huge success or a colossal failure?WP

0 Replies
 
 

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