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Estimating probability of an occurrence from historical data

 
 
Reply Sat 10 Feb, 2018 03:29 pm
I have 183 percentages based on the accuracy of a price prediction. (If I predict something will sell at 100, and it sells at 100, then I have sold at 100% of the prediction.) 16 times, the percentage was < 85%. I would like to know how to determine the probability of 100% of the percentages from another similar population would be < 85%. In other words, what is the likelihood that the next group of assets I buy (chosen from the same population) would ALL be under 85% actual price / target price?
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engineer
 
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Reply Sun 11 Feb, 2018 06:53 am
@fairedargent,
1) The probability of getting less than 85% (P) is 16/183.
2) The probability of getting that on N straight samples is P^N
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