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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 2 Nov, 2020 07:51 pm
@hightor,
hightor wrote:
Actually, oralloy, Real Music pointed out that your response to Walter was disingenuous and MontereyJack agreed. I'll add that I thought your reply was disingenuous as well.

How do you rationalize the fact that none of you can point out anything disingenuous in my response to Walter?

Nevermind RM. He couldn't find something if it was right in front of him. But note that you and MJ also are unable to point out anything disingenuous in my response to Walter.


hightor wrote:
"Leftist forest mismanagement" is something you just made up.

Leftist forest mismanagement is what happens whenever leftists are in charge of a forest.

In more general terms, mismanagement is what happens whenever leftists are in charge of anything at all.

Note Venezuela as the perfect example of what leftist governance can do for a polity.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 2 Nov, 2020 07:56 pm
@MontereyJack,
MontereyJack wrote:
very true.

Everyone can see the disasters that leftists inflict on whatever is unlucky enough to be governed by them.
0 Replies
 
glitterbag
 
  1  
Reply Mon 2 Nov, 2020 09:28 pm
@oralloy,
oralloy wrote:

Walter Hinteler wrote:
The federal government owns roughly 60% percent of California's 33 million acres of forestlands, you certainly know.

Actually I don't know. But I'll take your word for it.


Here's another fun fact, Trump's administration and political appointees are responsible for the federally owned forestlands........I'm pretty sure they haven't subcontracted out to leftists to care for the forests.
farmerman
 
  0  
Reply Tue 3 Nov, 2020 05:26 am
@glitterbag,
Gifford Pinchot was probably as responsible as anyone in the "Federalizing" forests managed by BLM or the DNP. He was a conservationist with a side that felt that our forests need to be used in a protective way so that the forests dont turn into fire hazard "old growth" plots where the forest floors are thick with fuel. We still have many BLM lands that are managed that way. Im kinda a greenie but using forests is still the best way to retain their beauty and keeping them from becoming natural tinder boxes. Sadly, weve politicized that too,

Pinchot, also, in 1912 or thereabouts is pretty much responsible for the splitting up of the GOP and the growth of the style of mid Atlantic and New England GOP.

oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 3 Nov, 2020 05:44 am
@farmerman,
The best way to prevent forest floors from becoming thick with fuel is to allow small forest fires to burn themselves out naturally.

Unfortunately at this point the forest floor is so thick with fuel that any small fire will grow into Armageddon.

The best way forward is to have small controlled burns that we can hopefully keep from growing into Armageddon but will slowly and systematically reduce the fuel which we've allowed to accumulate on the forest floor.
hightor
 
  2  
Reply Tue 3 Nov, 2020 05:57 am
@oralloy,
Quote:

The best way forward is to have small controlled burns...


I agree, but that is a very labor intensive and potentially dangerous job. Controlled burns have been known to escape. Where are we going to find the personnel to do this work? One answer I've heard is to use our armed forces. Organizing something like FDR's CCC might be a good idea as well but I don't think the USAmericans of today would be that quick to sign up. Certainly not for minimum wage.
hightor
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Nov, 2020 08:06 am
Capitalism Will Ruin the Earth By 2050

It's a dramatic headline, I know. Capitalism won't "ruin the earth", just make it hard to live the in way we've become accustomed (and drive many plant and animal species to extinction), but the problem of impending scarcity of non-renewable resources is something we need to face:

Quote:

(...)

But there is a problem: if we continue growing our economies at current rates, it will require a level of minerals and materials that the Earth will not be able to provide. This is the case even if heavy materials are replaced with light alternatives.

For instance, the automobile industry is replacing steel components of the electric motor, battery and vehicle body with wrought aluminum, magnesium and titanium, or other composite materials such as carbon fibre reinforced plastic. Yet “these materials tend to require more energy and have a higher global warming potential in the production stage than the heavier materials they replace.”

The EV transition is, in short, a massive industrial project. Electrification of roads and rail will require upgraded smart grids, complex routes connected to high power lines, and regular battery-swap stations. The paper explores several scenarios to explore how such a transition would take place.

In a continuing GDP growth scenario, the authors note that the economy begins to stagnate “due to peak oil limits at around 2025-2040,” but GDP is able to continue growing thanks to the EV transition. This shows that the reduction in liquid fuels in transportation can play a powerful role in avoiding “energy shortages in the economy as a whole.”

But then the economy hits the limits of mineral and material production to sustain this electric transition—in just three decades. And this is even with high levels of minerals recycling.

By 2050, in this scenario, the EV transition will “require higher amounts of copper, lithium and manganese than current reserves. For the cases of copper and manganese the depletion is mainly due to the demand from the rest of the economy,” but most lithium demand “is for EV batteries,” and this alone “depletes its estimated global reserves.”

Mineral depletion takes place even with “a very high increase in recycling rates” in a continuing GDP growth scenario.

In one such scenario, the authors apply what they consider to be realistic upper level recycling rates of 57 percent, 30 percent and 74 percent to copper, lithium and manganese respectively. These are based on extremely optimistic projections of recycling capabilities relative to their costs.

But still they find that even these high recycling rates wouldn’t prevent depletion of all current estimated reserves by 2050. The conclusion corroborates findings of other studies, estimating an expected bottleneck for lithium by 2042-2045 and for manganese by 2038-2050.

Actual bottlenecks could come even earlier because existing studies—including the MEDEAS model—don’t account for material requirements needed for internal wiring, the EV motor, EV chargers, building and maintaining the grid to connect and charge EV batteries, the catenaries to electrify the railways, as well as inherent difficulties in recycling metals.

(...)


Another look at the problem:

Humanity vs. Nature—Winner Take All!



CowDoc
 
  3  
Reply Wed 4 Nov, 2020 08:02 pm
@hightor,
I really can't believe the amount of misinformation on this thread regarding the lack of active management on National Forests. Hasn't anyone here ever heard of, let alone read, the National Fire Plan or the National Cohesive Wildfire Strategy? That might be a good place to start. Sadly, the Forest Service has been severely handcuffed by the courts since the 1970's, when FLPMA, NEPA, NFMA, ESA, and the rest of the alphabet soup that derived from the environmental movement. The problem is less that of mismanagement than one of non-management. Fuel reduction will inevitably happen. The question is how. To me, commercial thinning and harvest is preferable to other solutions, simply because they pay most of their own way. Tony Tooke said a few years ago that the biggest problems facing the agency in the near future were capacity and culture. How correct he was. We have far fewer boots on the ground today than ever before, simply because rapidly decreasing revenues (the agency today faces a 95% decrease in forest receipts since 1970) and an increasing demand to answer litigation and FOIA requests. That, coupled with the many times that attempts to implement active, adaptive management have been slapped down by the courts has led to a lethargic attitude on the part of a great number of agency personnel. There is no easy answer, but following California's lead and pretending the problem is all due to climate change only worsens the problem. Active management using all available tools is the only potential solution.
roger
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Nov, 2020 08:36 pm
@CowDoc,
Good to see you back
0 Replies
 
brianjakub
 
  0  
Reply Sat 7 Nov, 2020 06:36 am
@hightor,
Can you explain how using up mineral reserves ruins the earth? They will never reach zero, just become rare in the earth, but higher in use through recycling. The economy will slow in growth when reserves dwindle and the whole system self corrects. Where is the "earth will be ruined" prediction coming from?
hightor
 
  4  
Reply Sat 7 Nov, 2020 04:10 pm
@brianjakub,
Quote:
Can you explain how using up mineral reserves ruins the earth?

Why should I? If you'd bothered to read the first sentence of my response you'd see that I went out of my way to say that extraction wouldn't "ruin the earth".
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Sat 7 Nov, 2020 05:16 pm
@CowDoc,
how is pinchot regarded in the western reserves? We designate a few "old growth forsts bck east and they aint at all too large.
0 Replies
 
brianjakub
 
  1  
Reply Sun 8 Nov, 2020 02:00 pm
@hightor,
How would it be Capitalism's fault we ran out of limited reserves? As scarcity goes up, prices go up and rationing ensues? Doesn't that mean capitalism works by forcing us to switch to renewable energy sources?
hightor
 
  5  
Reply Sun 8 Nov, 2020 02:10 pm
@brianjakub,
Quote:
How would it be Capitalism's fault we ran out of limited reserves?

I didn't write the header, Nafeez Ahmed did, so you really ought to take it up with him.
Quote:
Doesn't that mean capitalism works by forcing us to switch to renewable energy sources?

No.
0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  4  
Reply Sun 29 Nov, 2020 03:31 am
‘Collapse of civilisation is the most likely outcome’: top climate scientists

The world’s most eminent climate scientists and biologists believe we’re headed for the collapse of civilisation, and it may already be too late to change course.

Quote:
Australia’s top climate scientist says “we are already deep into the trajectory towards collapse” of civilisation, which may now be inevitable because 9 of the 15 known global climate tipping points that regulate the state of the planet have been activated.

Australian National University emeritus professor Will Steffen (pictured) told Voice of Action that there was already a chance we have triggered a “global tipping cascade” that would take us to a less habitable “Hothouse Earth” climate, regardless of whether we reduced emissions.

Steffen says it would take 30 years at best (more likely 40-60 years) to transition to net zero emissions, but when it comes to tipping points such as Arctic sea ice we could have already run out of time.

Evidence shows we will also lose control of the tipping points for the Amazon rainforest, the West Antarctic ice sheet, and the Greenland ice sheet in much less time than it’s going to take us to get to net zero emissions, Steffen says.

“Given the momentum in both the Earth and human systems, and the growing difference between the ‘reaction time’ needed to steer humanity towards a more sustainable future, and the ‘intervention time’ left to avert a range of catastrophes in both the physical climate system (e.g., melting of Arctic sea ice) and the biosphere (e.g., loss of the Great Barrier Reef), we are already deep into the trajectory towards collapse,” said Steffen.

“That is, the intervention time we have left has, in many cases, shrunk to levels that are shorter than the time it would take to transition to a more sustainable system.

“The fact that many of the features of the Earth System that are being damaged or lost constitute ‘tipping points’ that could well link to form a ‘tipping cascade’ raises the ultimate question: Have we already lost control of the system? Is collapse now inevitable?”

This is not a unique view – leading Stanford University biologists, who were first to reveal that we are already experiencing the sixth mass extinction on Earth, released new research this week showing species extinctions are accelerating in an unprecedented manner, which may be a tipping point for the collapse of human civilisation.

Also in the past week research emerged showing the world’s major food baskets will experience more extreme droughts than previously forecast, with southern Australia among the worst hit globally.

Steffen used the metaphor of the Titanic in one of his recent talks to describe how we may cross tipping points faster than the time it would take us to react to get our impact on the climate under control.

“If the Titanic realises that it’s in trouble and it has about 5km that it needs to slow and steer the ship, but it’s only 3km away from the iceberg, it’s already doomed,” he said.

(...)

voiceofaction
0 Replies
 
 

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