71
   

Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Jan, 2020 02:02 pm
@hightor,
Yes, certain species have adapted to cold weather, like anopheles. And yes, habitat destruction is another big threat. Like all these fires in Australia would have killed zillions of them.
0 Replies
 
McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Jan, 2020 02:49 pm
@hightor,
The article is about the fires in Australia. Mentioning the Amazon out of the blue threw me off is all.

Washington had Ivory teeth.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  -1  
Reply Fri 10 Jan, 2020 10:40 am
@McGentrix,
McGentrix wrote:

The article is about the fires in Australia. Mentioning the Amazon out of the blue threw me off is all.

Washington had Ivory teeth.


The fires in the Amazon were/are due to direct human action, not Climate Change. The fires in Australia are the same. https://www.newsweek.com/australia-wildfires-arson-new-south-wales-police-1480733

CC Warriors are so desperate to lay this catastrophe at the feet of Climate Change that Snopes (Oh so reliable!) is actually claiming that reports of arrests for arson are false. (I imagine that they take refuge in the fact that some reports say "hundreds of arrests")

blatham
 
  2  
Reply Fri 10 Jan, 2020 02:14 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
Bots and trolls spread false arson claims in Australian fires ‘disinformation campaign’

Victoria police say there is no evidence any of the devastating bushfires in the state were caused by arson, contrary to the spread of global disinformation exaggerating arsonist arrests during the current crisis.

A misleading figure suggesting 183 arsonists have been arrested “since the start of the bushfire season” spread across the globe on Wednesday, after initial reports in News Corp were picked up by Donald Trump Jr, US far-right websites and popular alt-right personalities.
Guardian

Quote:
Australia is struggling to cope with deadly infernos and faces the loss of nearly a billion animals to terrible bushfires — but in the midst of those tragedies, authorities are also battling against hoaxes and misinformation, including false reports of widespread arson. Many of the claims seek to suggest arson, not climate change, was a key driver of the historic fires.

The hashtag #ArsonEmergency began trending shortly after the new year. Queensland University of Technology researcher Timothy Graham says he identified troll and bot social media accounts that tried to shift the narrative about the fires as being the work of dozens of criminals.
NPR

Quote:
Climate change deniers are blaming Australia’s wildfires on arson, but experts say that the exaggerated claims are part of a widespread disinformation campaign and that arson alone cannot explain the unprecedented blazes.

Theories pinning the wildfires on arsonists gained traction in recent days after police in the state of New South Wales announced that 24 people have been charged with deliberately lighting fires since November.

But wildfire researchers say it’s unreasonable to think the actions of two dozen possible offenders could have caused such destruction, with 20 million acres already scorched and more than 120 fires still active across southeastern Australia.

“Arson is a red herring,” said Mike Flannigan, director of the Canadian Partnership for Wildland Fire Science at the University of Alberta in Edmonton.
NBC

0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  4  
Reply Fri 10 Jan, 2020 03:48 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Finn wrote:

The fires in the Amazon were/are due to direct human action, not Climate Change.

That's not in dispute. The concern is the loss of forest-associated carbon sequestration as we enter the next critical phase of the climate crisis:
Quote:
Many scientists now believe some of the planets forests may never recover. If the forests somehow can defy all odds in an increasingly warming world, it still may take burned forests around the globe decades to recover. Those are decades that we don’t have to save ourselves from the worst impacts of the climate crisis.


Scientists believe that once a certain percentage of the canopy is destroyed the natural weather patterns which sustain the rainforest will no longer function and the area will return as a savannah.

Quote:
A savanna or savannah is a mixed woodland grassland ecosystem characterised by the trees being sufficiently widely spaced so that the canopy does not close. The open canopy allows sufficient light to reach the ground to support an unbroken herbaceous layer consisting primarily of grasses.


This sort of ecosystem doesn't sequester carbon the way a climax forest does. It would have been bad to lose this carbon sink any time but it's especially troubling now, given the buildup of atmospheric carbon from fossil fuel combustion.

Finn wrote:
The fires in Australia are the same.


No, they're not "the same". The fires in Australia are more severe because of climate change. Whereas it's feared that the fires in the Amazon will make climate change itself more severe. This is already evident in Brazil.

Quote:
There has been much debate about the links between climate change and the fires. Australian National University climate scientist Imran Ahmed told the BBC there was a direct link "because what climate change does is exacerbate the conditions in which the bushfires happen."

Glenda Wardle, an ecologist from the University of Sydney, told the BBC: "It's not every weather event that is the direct result of climate change. But when you see trends…it becomes undeniably linked to global climate change."

Unseasonably high temperatures and drought over the last three months have contributed to the conditions that have allowed the fires to proliferate.

"One of the key drivers of fire intensity, fire spread rates and fire area is temperature. And in Australia we've just experienced record high temperatures," Mark Howden, director of the Climate Change Institute at Australian National University, told Reuters.

A report by the Australian Government's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said that last Spring, there was the highest fire weather danger with record high values right across the country.

"The dangerous fire weather conditions during spring 2019 is consistent with the increasingly severe fire weather seen in many areas of the country, owing to increasing temperatures and reduced cool season rainfall," the report said.

Meanwhile, dry lightning was to blame for sparking a number of fires in December in Victoria's East Gippsland region, according to Victoria Emergency, and the unusually hot weather has accelerated the flames.


If you look at the firelines in Australia, fires burning across a distance equal to the southern border of the USA you'd realize that twenty, a hundred, or a thousand arsonists wouldn't be responsible for such an extensive amount of burning.

0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  3  
Reply Sat 11 Jan, 2020 04:51 am
The causes of unprecedented bushfires are complex but climate change is part of the puzzle
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sat 11 Jan, 2020 09:44 am
Quote:
More than 1 million fires in Australia
detected by satellites since September
WP

Modern day Australian arsonists sure are good at their hobby.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  -1  
Reply Sat 11 Jan, 2020 03:52 pm
@hightor,
I've no doubt that changes in the climate are part of the "puzzle" (your somewhat callous term, not mine), just as they have been over eons, but they did not cause these wildfires. Australia has a "bushfire season" that long predates any handwringing about climate change. Such fires are a natural dynamic of the ecology. Unfortunately, every so often such natural dynamics go to extremes. If you think that there is any way to modulate such things to an "acceptable" and constant pattern you are foolish.

Volcanoes erupt regardless of whether or not puny humans inhabit the world with gas-guzzling machines. Often they do so without "dramatic" results, but sometimes the results are catastrophic on a similar or more severe scale to the Australian bushfires.

Tornado sirens went off in our neighborhood last night. Thankfully they didn't herald a disaster, but they could have and if they did and my house was demolished and our lives snuffed out it would be a single incident among literally billions of such events over time. A2Kers and Golden Globe Celebrities bemoaning "Climate Change" would have provided no solace to our survivors.

Russel Crowe and Jennifer Anniston's plaintive cries notwithstanding, returning the West to a pre-industrial economic state is not going to prevent 50, 100, 150 or 200 arsonists from setting fires during the "bushfire season."

There is a far greater chance that humans will destroy life on earth through nuclear or biological warfare (and even then I doubt we can do it) than by continuing to emit carbon. Your time and effort would be better spent on those issues but likely have the same impotent effect.


Finn dAbuzz
 
  -1  
Reply Sat 11 Jan, 2020 04:00 pm
@blatham,
How droll
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sat 11 Jan, 2020 04:12 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
You're going to go with "droll"?
Quote:
The fires in the Amazon were/are due to direct human action, not Climate Change. The fires in Australia are the same. https://www.newsweek.com/australia-wildfires-arson-new-south-wales-police-1480733


You could have gone with, "OK, I fucked up. Arson isn't causal."
0 Replies
 
livinglava
 
  -1  
Reply Sat 11 Jan, 2020 04:21 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Finn dAbuzz wrote:

I've no doubt that changes in the climate are part of the "puzzle" (your somewhat callous term, not mine), just as they have been over eons, but they did not cause these wildfires. Australia has a "bushfire season" that long predates any handwringing about climate change. Such fires are a natural dynamic of the ecology. Unfortunately, every so often such natural dynamics go to extremes. If you think that there is any way to modulate such things to an "acceptable" and constant pattern you are foolish.

Hopefully you realize that when biomass burns, solid carbon gets converted into atmospheric CO2. It can happen as part of natural cycles and/or be stimulated by climate-induced drought, etc. but either way there is a negative feedback loop where fire clears land and subjects it to more drying in direct sunlight, which leads to more hot dry air circulating around to cause more drought.

Quote:
Volcanoes erupt regardless of whether or not puny humans inhabit the world with gas-guzzling machines. Often they do so without "dramatic" results, but sometimes the results are catastrophic on a similar or more severe scale to the Australian bushfires.

What's your point here? Volcanoes are caused by very different mechanisms than forest fires. Volcanoes boil up near subduction zones and spreading ridges, i.e. at tectonic plate boundaries. Forest fires get their fuel as forests dry out and thus have less moisture to absorb the energy of a potential fire and dissipate it as evaporation.

Quote:
returning the West to a pre-industrial economic state is not going to prevent 50, 100, 150 or 200 arsonists from setting fires during the "bushfire season."

Using what we learn about climate to reform industrial economies to be sustainable is not the same thing as 'returning to a pre-industrial economic state.'

Quote:
There is a far greater chance that humans will destroy life on earth through nuclear or biological warfare (and even then I doubt we can do it) than by continuing to emit carbon. Your time and effort would be better spent on those issues but likely have the same impotent effect.

Failing to pursue sustainability adds fuel to the fires of human conflict. When people are putting effort into achieving sustainability, it promotes peace by giving hope that there is a future that doesn't involve population-corrections where people have to compete to avoid bearing the brunt of them.





[/quote]
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Jan, 2020 09:03 am
Holy poop. It just dawned on me that I started this thread 15 years ago.
farmerman
 
  2  
Reply Sun 12 Jan, 2020 09:37 am
@blatham,
so whaddya want, a cake?
hightor
 
  2  
Reply Sun 12 Jan, 2020 09:48 am
@blatham,
Quote:
It just dawned on me that I started this thread 15 years ago.


Too bad no one cared at the time.

Quote:
Australia was warned about bushfires becoming more extreme and wreaking havoc across the country for longer periods of time in an incredible report published 12 years ago.

The Garnaut Climate Change Review's final report preempted that fire seasons would 'start earlier, end slightly later, and generally be more intense.'

The report, which was published in 2008, predicted the effects would increase over time but the affects wouldn't be seen until 2020.

mogaznews


Quote:
The temperature increase Australia has experienced is within the range of our earliest climate change projections, which CSIRO published almost 30 years ago. In other words, our climate models adequately capture the processes that cause the long-term warming trend, which in turn means that our projections of future climate change are realistic, plausible and importantly, can allow us to plan.

afr
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  2  
Reply Sun 12 Jan, 2020 09:55 am
@livinglava,
many volcano fields have nothing at all to do with plate boundaries or plates at all.

Thats the trouble with popular science. When we read stuff in SCientific American, it is usually written with a sense of "never show the reader that science is in doubt, it just confuses them"

I recommend that we start with popular writers(like David Quammen) and then go deeper. Otherwise it gets old teachers all verhootzed with a feeling that theyve failed in imparting information.
hightor
 
  3  
Reply Sun 12 Jan, 2020 10:04 am
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
There is a far greater chance that humans will destroy life on earth through nuclear or biological warfare (and even then I doubt we can do it) than by continuing to emit carbon. Your time and effort would be better spent on those issues but likely have the same impotent effect.

I assume you mean "all life on earth", because we've been selectively destroying life on earth for our whole existence. Well, no one is predicting the destruction of all life on earth because of the climate crisis. Here's the thing, Finn — nuclear or biological warfare, should either happen, will be hard to miss. We'll know when it begins, we'll take defensive measures, and it's likely that many of us will survive. But neither of these destructive events has been put into action. Anthropogenic climate change has been put into action. It began during the earliest stages of the industrial revolution. It was nearly undetectable for a century or two. It was first hypothesized over a hundred years ago. It simmered on the back burner for the first two thirds of the 20th Century, and then began a steady boil, picking up steam, and now we can measure — and see — the beginnings of effects that were predicted. This destructive bomb has already been detonated but the effects play out in slow motion.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Sun 12 Jan, 2020 10:09 am
@farmerman,
farmerman wrote:
many volcano fields have nothing at all to do with plate boundaries or plates at all.
The volcanoes in Hawaii are a good example, because they are far away from plate boundaries.

farmerman wrote:
Thats the trouble with popular science.
Well, I'd to learn that at school, more than 50 years ago. (Hoping, it's still correct)
farmerman
 
  2  
Reply Sun 12 Jan, 2020 10:38 am
@Walter Hinteler,
yep, its part of a whole basket of stuff that did NOT disappear with the literature about continental drift and when spiffy titles like "rings of Fire" became so popularized in the early 1970's
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Jan, 2020 12:04 pm
@farmerman,
Thanks to the many volcans in Germany, we've got 500 different mineral waters and 35 medicinal waters, and 14 major volcanic areas (in the Eifel mountains four areas with "Deep-Low-Frequency" quakes).
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Jan, 2020 02:48 pm
@farmerman,
Quote:
so whaddya want, a cake?
Yes. Vanilla please and large enough such that a cluster of gay Republicans can burst out and delight me and my family.
0 Replies
 
 

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