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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
hingehead
 
  4  
Reply Sun 21 Jun, 2015 06:51 pm
Japanese Meteorological Agency - months of May, global temperature trajectory
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CIDf0lgUYAAWgh8.png
Ionus
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 22 Jun, 2015 08:50 pm
@hingehead,
Why is an increase in temp of Japanese cities related to GW ?
MontereyJack
 
  2  
Reply Mon 22 Jun, 2015 09:06 pm
@Ionus,
what makes you think it's a graph of Japanese city temperatures? "Global average temp" is the term generally used for the average temp of the whole earth, not just Japanese cities. And anyway studies have shown that urban temperature trends trend upward in parallel with nonurban temps. Why should Japanese cities be any different, if that is in fact what the graph is of, and you're not just making that up out of whole cloth. Whatever it is, and it's probably the whole globe, its trend is definitely up. And that's GW for ya.
Ionus
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 22 Jun, 2015 09:19 pm
@MontereyJack,
Quote:
what makes you think it's a graph of Japanese city temperatures?

What makes anyone think one nation's Weather Bureau has the ability to predict GW ?
Quote:
if that is in fact what the graph is of
It is a reasonable assumption, unlike assuming they have data for the whole earth and are joining the political stoush .
Quote:
studies have shown that urban temperature trends trend upward in parallel with nonurban temps

So cities are generating the same amount of heat and cooling as they have always done...are you sure ? Many experts questioned GW simply on the temp being measured only in cities, which have been measured as warmer than the surrounding countryside .
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Jun, 2015 10:57 pm
@Ionus,
That called "Urban Heat Islands".
If urbanisation had an effect on rising temperatures, it had always been so.


Best et. al. and Cook wrote about this. (It's online, I think)
MontereyJack
 
  2  
Reply Tue 23 Jun, 2015 12:47 am
@Ionus,
In order: because they all have access to all the datasets, the satellite temp records of land, sea, and the atmosphere, and the climate simulations and the algorithms involved, and they all have eyeballs, and can see the macro changes that we all can see.
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  2  
Reply Tue 23 Jun, 2015 12:49 am
@Ionus,
In order: because they all have access to all the datasets, the satellite temp records of land, sea, and the atmosphere, and the climate simulations and the algorithms involved, and they all have eyeballs, and can see the macro changes that we all can see.
It might be a reasonable assumption if the graph were titled something like "Temps of Japanese cities in May in the hoistorical record". Since it is in fact titled Global Average temperature, it is more reasonable to conclude it's agout global average temperature.

No, cities are generating more heat than they used to, because of many factors, use of fossil fuels for heating and air conditioning and consturction, industrialization, higher albedos (the highest recorded natural temp according to NASA is 159F in the Lut desert in Iran (or maybe Iraq), the highest urban temp is over 180 on tar rooftops in NYC). It is as Walter says the Urban Heat Island Effect, and it has already been discussed in great detail here. Where were you then? It is possible, indeed easy with computers, to separate urban temps from non-peopled sites and compare them, and both show the same warming trends. And temps are NOT measured only where people are--your data are flat wrong. The US Weather Service has had as many as 6000 sites they drew data from, and similar numbers of sites around the world, in all climate zones, over the last two hundred years or so, now, plus ocean surface temps from virtually everywhere, because ships went everywhere for three centuries or so, plus satellites have been measuring ocean temps since the 60s, and land temps since the 70s, and their orbits cover most of the earth over several orbits, plus ARGUS measuring deeper ocean temps and popping back up regularly. You seriously underestimate the number of observations made and the length of time involved.
Ionus
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 23 Jun, 2015 01:36 am
@MontereyJack,
Quote:
they all have access to all the datasets

Going back to the 1800's....all measured in population centres .

Quote:
the satellite temp records of land, sea, and the atmosphere
The satellites that have only started recording data 10 yrs ago ?

Quote:
the climate simulations and the algorithms involved
I like the word algorithms ...it sounds so scientific I bet a lot of people go OOooohh when they see it . Simulations like the first one that left out water vapour because they didnt have the data on it and were in a rush to prove GW, or the one that said by 2015 your children will not now snow....those simulations ?

Quote:
they all have eyeballs, and can see the macro changes that we all can see

They can see everything ? Or do you mean their arthritis is acting up ?

I question why any weather bureau needs to be involved in the climate debate . What are their qualifications ? Last thing I knew Meteorology and Climatology were different 'ologies .
Ionus
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 23 Jun, 2015 01:37 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Quote:
If urbanisation had an effect on rising temperatures, it had always been so.

Certainly it has always had an effect, but as cities grow the effect is more .
0 Replies
 
Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Tue 23 Jun, 2015 01:53 am
@MontereyJack,
Quote:
The US Weather Service has had as many as 6000 sites they drew data from, and similar numbers of sites around the world, in all climate zones, over the last two hundred years

Rubbish ! There is only one weather station in the world that even goes back 200 years . Can you guess which one ?

Quote:
plus ocean surface temps from virtually everywhere, because ships went everywhere for three centuries or so

Rubbish again ! Ships sailed in the wind . They didnt go "everywhere" they went where the big cities were for trade . They measured the temp in the wind and weather . Steamships are a heat source . All the ship data is still being compiled so how do you know what it is ?

Quote:
plus satellites have been measuring ocean temps since the 60s, and land temps since the 70s, and their orbits cover most of the earth over several orbits, plus ARGUS measuring deeper ocean temps and popping back up regularly.

That's not correct . No satellites have made two passes over the same point on the earth every day . When you say in the 60's, do you mean 1969 ? This is another case of any data must do, we must prove it positive !

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/1997/essd06oct97_1/
Quote:
Unlike the surface-based temperatures, global temperature measurements of the Earth's lower atmosphere obtained from satellites reveal no definitive warming trend over the past two decades. The slight trend that is in the data actually appears to be downward. The largest fluctuations in the satellite temperature data are not from any man-made activity, but from natural phenomena such as large volcanic eruptions from Mt. Pinatubo, and from El Niño. So the programs which model global warming in a computer say the temperature of the Earth's lower atmosphere should be going up markedly, but actual measurements of the temperature of the lower atmosphere reveal no such pronounced activity.
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Tue 23 Jun, 2015 02:15 am
@Ionus,
Ionus wrote:
I question why any weather bureau needs to be involved in the climate debate . What are their qualifications ? Last thing I knew Meteorology and Climatology were different 'ologies .
I don't know how it's done elsewhere, but here in Germany you study at a university at least five years until you get your MSc in meteorology (three years BA, then two years for the MA).

For climatology, students formerly studied specifically meteorological or geophysical sciences, many geography or oceanography, and then became 'climatologists'.
Today the same is true - meteorology for example, there are twelve German universities where you have to do it at first.
But there are many ways now, dozens, especially studying at first theoretical subjects (e. g. Theoretical Physics) and then go over to climatology.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Tue 23 Jun, 2015 02:21 am
@Ionus,
Ionus wrote:
The satellites that have only started recording data 10 yrs ago ?
Global Sea-Surface Temperature Distribution Determined From an Environmental Satellite (Monthly Weather Review 100: 10–4. )
Quote:
Abstract
A composite histogram method is used to objectively derive sea-surface temperature distribution from satellite radiation measurements for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Comparisons with conventional observations yield root-mean-square differences of 2°–3°K. Some of the differences can be accounted for by factors such as the coherent noise introduced by the onboard tape recorder, insufficient atmospheric attenuation corrections, and basic differences between the two types of temperature measurements.

Received: March 5, 1971; Revised: July 14, 1971
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  3  
Reply Tue 23 Jun, 2015 07:59 am
@Ionus,
Really? You are going to trot out a story that is almost 20 years old as proof there has been no warming in the last 20 years?


Your link is from 1997. Today is 2015. The numbers in that 1997 story have been corrected to account for the changes in satellite orbit.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/satellite-measurements-warming-troposphere.htm
Ionus
 
  -2  
Reply Wed 24 Jun, 2015 12:22 am
@parados,
Dont get impatient Paradum, I enjoy the kill . So we can agree that there was no warming up till 1997 ? Good . How has the planet warmed in the last 17 years then ?

Quote:
The numbers in that 1997 story have been corrected to account for the changes in satellite orbit.

Yes, GW enthusiasts have no end to the "correcting" of data they have to do...you can only shred so much...no snow by 2015 ! I suppose it does have till the end of the year . But even if I accept a half a degree rise in temp, it is over way too short a period to prove the planet is warming . I know, your arthritis is getting better and that proves it for you .


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7e/Satellite_Temperatures.png
Note how steadily increasing the temp is...this means we are doomed ! Or they could have plotted the trending on a 5 year basis so you can see it fluctuates . Tell me, did CO2 emissions fluctuate ? Half a degree increase...WOW...I should start buying land in Siberia ! Will you join me or dont you have faith in the new religion ?
parados
 
  3  
Reply Wed 24 Jun, 2015 06:12 am
@Ionus,
So, you decide to ignore the rest of the data? Over 100 years of surface temperatures that confirm the satellite temperatures. Observations of all the other things that also confirm the warming?

.5 degrees over 30 years becomes 1 degree over 60 years and 2 degrees over 100. But you will be gone by then, so you might as well be in denial now since it doesn't affect you.

Quote:
So we can agree that there was no warming up till 1997 ?

I didn't agree to that. That is your idiotic argument that is not supported by the facts. You continue to show us how disingenuous you are when it comes to looking at the totality of the data.
woiyo
 
  2  
Reply Wed 24 Jun, 2015 10:51 am
@parados,
Quote:
Climate experts warn the amount of light and warmth released by the sun is nosediving to levels "not seen for centuries".

They fear a repeat of the so-called 'Maunder Minimum' which triggered Arctic winter whiteouts and led to the River Thames freezing 300 years ago.

The Met Office-led study warns although the effect will be offset by recent global warming, Britain faces years of unusually cold winters.

A spokesman said: "A return to low solar activity not seen for centuries could increase the chances of cold winters in Europe and eastern parts of the United States but wouldn't halt global warming.

"Return of 'grand solar minimum' could affect European and eastern US winters."

Long episodes of low solar activity were seen during the Maunder Minimum between 1645 and 1715 and the 'Dalton Minimum' from 1790 to 1830.


http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/586404/Britain-freezing-winters-slump-solar-activity

Kind blows your whole theory ! Shucks !!!
parados
 
  2  
Reply Wed 24 Jun, 2015 11:11 am
@woiyo,
Perhaps you should read the study itself instead of RW news reports about it.

http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150623/ncomms8535/full/ncomms8535.html



Your news report...

Quote:
They fear a repeat of the so-called 'Maunder Minimum'


From the report itself.
Quote:
An 8% chance of a return to Maunder Minimum-like conditions within the next 40 years was estimated in 2010 (ref. 2). The decline in solar activity has continued, to the time of writing, and is faster than any other such decline in the 9,300 years covered by the cosmogenic isotope data1. If this recent rate of decline is added to the analysis, the 8% probability estimate is now raised to between 15 and 20%.


OMG... RUN FOR YOUR LIVES.... There is a 15% chance that the sun will decline in activity.


Kind of blows your argument, woiyo
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Wed 24 Jun, 2015 11:20 am
@parados,
Other British papers have a different approach to that report than the tabloids:
Natural cooling of the Sun will not be enough to save Earth from global warming, warn scientists
Quote:
There is about a one-in-five chance of the Sun entering the same kind of cooling phase that allowed “frost fairs” to be held on the frozen River Thames 300 years ago – but scientists warned that the next solar transition will not be enough to save the world from global warming.
Ionus
 
  -3  
Reply Wed 24 Jun, 2015 08:51 pm
@parados,
Quote:
Over 100 years of surface temperatures that confirm the satellite temperatures.

WOW....you are so knowledgeable ! 100 year old satellites ! I didn't know that ..

Quote:
Observations of all the other things that also confirm the warming?

You mean the things where you have to assume it is GW ? Those things ?

Quote:
.5 degrees over 30 years becomes 1 degree over 60 years and 2 degrees over 100. But you will be gone by then, so you might as well be in denial now since it doesn't affect you.
Is that the latest revision or are you still going by the no snow for our children by 2015 ?

Quote:
That is your idiotic argument that is not supported by the facts.

Did you or did you not read the quote from NASA ? I thought NASA was on your side...the more satellites the merrier...
0 Replies
 
Ionus
 
  -2  
Reply Wed 24 Jun, 2015 08:55 pm
@parados,
Quote:
There is a 15% chance that the sun will decline in activity.

What are the chances of GW, you little devotee you . You know what a 15% chance of something happening is ? 0% to a moron like you . We do know the earth will get colder...that is a 100% chance .
 

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