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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
Ionus
 
  2  
Reply Sun 28 Nov, 2010 06:07 pm
@Ragman,
Quote:
I have no idea how some weather phenomenons can be SCIENTIFICALLY (or otherwise)attibutable to man vs natural causation.
It is easy if you start with the result you want then prove it. Very Happy
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  2  
Reply Sun 28 Nov, 2010 07:32 pm
@Ragman,
Ragman wrote:
I have no idea how some weather phenomenons can be SCIENTIFICALLY (or otherwise)attibutable to man vs natural causation.
Easy. It has been done by politicizing science.
0 Replies
 
Deckland
 
  2  
Reply Mon 29 Nov, 2010 12:58 pm
@Ionus,
Ionus wrote:
Interesting attitude they have.....
If it gets hotter it is due to GW
If it gets colder it is due to GW

Precisely ! It's like the old coin trick,
Heads I win, tails you lose.
I don't dispute climate change. Climate is dynamic and has been
changing since day dot. What I do dispute is the claim that it
is entirely man made, and that paying for carbon will fix it.
A lot of people are making and will make a lot of money out
of carbon trading and it will be the little people on the end
of the line who will pay for it.
Bombard them with doom and gloom and they will happily pay.
Another way to fleece Joe Public.
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 29 Nov, 2010 04:53 pm
IN THE LAST 100 YEARS, THE AVERAGE AND MEAN ANNUAL GLOBAL TEMPERATURES INCREASED AT MOST 1°C (1.8°F).
Quote:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb
As of December 20, 2007, more than 400 prominent scientists from more than two dozen countries have voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.
Quote:

404
Physical chemist Dr. Peter Stilbs, who chairs the climate seminar Department of Physical Chemistry at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) in Stockholm, has authored more than 165 scientific publications in refereed journals since 1970. Stilbs coordinated a meeting of international scientists and declared his skepticism about man-made climate fears. Stilbs wrote on December 21, 2006 that “by the final panel discussion stage of the conference, there appeared to be wide agreement” about several key points regarding man-made climate fears. Stilbs announced that the scientists concluded, “There is no strong evidence to prove significant human influence on climate on a global basis. The global cooling trend from 1940 to 1970 is inconsistent with models based on anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. Actual claims put forward are that an observed global temperature increase of about 0.3 degrees C since 1970 exceeds what could be expected from natural variation. However, recent temperature data do not indicate any continued global warming since 1998.” Stilbs also noted, “There is no reliable evidence to support that the 20th century was the warmest in the last 1000 years. Previous claims based on the ‘Mann hockey-stick curve’ are by now totally discredited.” Stilbs noted that the team of international scientists concluded: “There is no doubt that the science behind ‘the climate issue’ is far from settled. As so many cosmic effects are omitted from climate models, there is no credibility for arguments such as ‘there is no other explanation’ [than anthropogenic generation of carbon dioxide]. This must be remembered when making future political decisions related to these matters.” (LINK) Stilbs also was one of the signatories of the December 13, 2007 letter critical of the UN IPCC’s climate view. “These [IPCC] Summaries are prepared by a relatively small core writing team with the final drafts approved line-by-line by ¬government ¬representatives. The great ¬majority of IPCC contributors and ¬reviewers, and the tens of thousands of other scientists who are qualified to comment on these matters, are not involved in the preparation of these documents. The summaries therefore cannot properly be represented as a consensus view among experts," the letter Stilbs signed explained. (LINK)

0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Nov, 2010 11:29 am
@Deckland,
Quote:
What I do dispute is the claim that it
is entirely man made,

It's nice to argue against a strawman. You can win every time.

No one has claimed it is entirely man made except fools like you that want to argue against that argument since you can't argue the actual issue.
okie
 
  2  
Reply Tue 30 Nov, 2010 03:36 pm
@parados,
parados wrote:
No one has claimed it is entirely man made except fools like you that want to argue against that argument since you can't argue the actual issue.
Since you seem to think you have the inside information on this, and that the global warmers have not claimed it is entirely man made, that begs the obvious question, just how much of it or what percentage of the supposed global warming have they claimed is man made? Since you seem to know all about what they have claimed, what have they claimed, parados, what percentage of it have they claimed is man made? I would love to know the answer from an expert on this.
parados
 
  0  
Reply Tue 30 Nov, 2010 04:04 pm
@okie,
Read the IPCC report okie. It's hardly "inside information". It is available for anyone to read.
okie
 
  2  
Reply Tue 30 Nov, 2010 04:17 pm
@parados,
Why waste my time if you already know the answer, parados? You already told us that the global warmers have never claimed all of the warming was man-made, so how much of it is attributed to man? That should be a simple question that you can answer, since you seem to know all about this.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Nov, 2010 07:10 pm
@okie,
I don't think it would waste your time to actually read the report okie. You might actually learn something.

Of course if you want to remain ignorant, I see no reason to try to move you from that position.
Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Tue 30 Nov, 2010 08:54 pm
@parados,
Quote:
No one has claimed it is entirely man
You must be a god in your own mind. You are familiar with everything ever written or said on GW in every language and country in the world ? WOW ! You must...... like....thrash superman twice before saving the world every morning.....You are truely awesome !!!!
0 Replies
 
Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Tue 30 Nov, 2010 08:56 pm
@parados,
Quote:
Of course if you want to remain ignorant
The whole apsect of ignorance shouldnt have been brought up by you of all people.

How much ice should melt this year ?
0 Replies
 
globalbagproject
 
  0  
Reply Tue 30 Nov, 2010 09:03 pm
@blatham,
Protecting the Earth from pollutants should be a priority. Plastics clogged our drainage and the carbon monoxide that we get from cigarettes deteriorates our health. Preserve nature by means of patronizing reusable bags. http://www.globalbagproject.com
Ionus
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Nov, 2010 09:21 pm
@globalbagproject,
I tied one plastic bag to the clothes line and I buried another. Within 6 months they had both deteriorated to nothing.
0 Replies
 
Deckland
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Dec, 2010 02:39 am
@parados,
parados wrote:

Quote:
What I do dispute is the claim that it
is entirely man made,

It's nice to argue against a strawman. You can win every time.

No one has claimed it is entirely man made except fools like you that want to argue against that argument since you can't argue the actual issue.

It's the fools like you that are sucked in by the hype. Doomsters have come and gone for millennia but the world is still here regardless. Wait until you are paying through the neck for carbon and find that it has made not one scrap of difference except lining someone's pocket.
parados
 
  0  
Reply Wed 1 Dec, 2010 08:27 am
@Deckland,
The world is still here but civilizations have come and gone.

But I see you didn't address your strawman. You seem to want to ignore the fact that you are the one using a logical fallacy.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Dec, 2010 11:33 am
@parados,
parados wrote:

Read the IPCC report okie. It's hardly "inside information". It is available for anyone to read.


Have you read it ? The truth is the IPCC report is very equivocal with respect to both the manmade contribution to GHG accumulation in the atmosphere and the long term prospects for climate change. In addition, taken in the context of the known instability of the earth's climate over geologic time (we are in an intergalacial period), it hardly represents anything new or unknown.
Deckland
 
  2  
Reply Wed 1 Dec, 2010 12:09 pm
Quote:
Real markets have real underlying assets (such as Gold, Oil or mining shares), Cap & Trade’s only underlying asset is simply created out of thin air by a Government decree (you should be starting to see the risks here). So, to kick off Cap & Trade, the Government makes a law that stipulates that the initial price of Carbon is say $20 per tonne, and thus a new asset class is born – Carbon. The market doesn’t set the price, the Government does. The government also sets the contract specifications, not the free market. So, the Government sets the initial price, the contract specifications, and now runs “the market” - as you will not see Carbon trading done via the stock exchanges. I would hardly call this a free market mechanism. Cap & Trade is nothing more than a Clayton’s “market driven” scheme.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  2  
Reply Wed 1 Dec, 2010 12:41 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:
parados wrote:
Read the IPCC report okie. It's hardly "inside information". It is available for anyone to read.
Have you read it ? The truth is the IPCC report is very equivocal with respect to both the manmade contribution to GHG accumulation in the atmosphere and the long term prospects for climate change. In addition, taken in the context of the known instability of the earth's climate over geologic time (we are in an intergalacial period), it hardly represents anything new or unknown.
George, is it too much to ask of parados to tell us what portion of the global warming is caused by man, as determined in the IPCC report? I have been under the impression that the global warmers, such as Al Gore, the IPCC, and all the other doomsdayers, they have all been telling us that all the global warming has been due to man spewing out greenhouse gases. Parados quickly argues that I am wrong to assume that, and so I kindly asked him then that if man is not 100% responsible, just how much percentage of it is man responsible for? He then tells me to read the IPCC report myself, to which I said to him, that since he already claimed to know the answer, then it would be a simple thing for him to tell me, or us here on this forum. He then resorts to his accusations of ignorance for anyone that asks him for evidence or backup to his opinion or opinions.

If I read your response correctly, george, you indicate that the IPCC report is "very equivocal regarding the question I asked parados. Since you seem to be pretty informed on the report, I think I can save myself the trouble of wading through it at this time. Am I wrong to believe however that the general message being given us by the global warmers is that man is almost entirely causing this huge supposed problem of global warming? The IPCC report can be equivocal, not surprising, but it is the general underlying message and the drastic measures being proposed that really matter anyway.

In my opinion, if the so-called grand "consensus" cannot even measure the global warming effect as impacted by man, then there is nothing to talk about beyond that. If we have yet to identify if there is in fact a problem, and if so, what is actually causing the problem, I fail to see any useful or logic behind proposing any kind of a fix for that perceived "problem." The "problem" is very possibly and even likely a mere figment of some peoples imagination, to fulfill their political agenda.
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  2  
Reply Wed 1 Dec, 2010 05:17 pm
okie, parado I suspect is a little testy because he has posted, at least three times over the course of these discussions, the IPCC's assessment and quantification of natural and anthropogenic contributions to global warming. Your side seems to have roughly the attention span, and retention span, of a mosquito, tho, and the figures just don't seem to stick in your collective mind(s).

Here is a link to the latest IPCC Summary for Policymakers. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf
It's a pdf file, so I can't do you a picture of the graphic on page 4. It exists elesewhere not as a pdf, but I'm tired of doing this, just as I suspect Parados is if people are too pigheaded to find it for themselves, so I'll just summarize the data:

total anthropogenic contribution to global warming in terms of increased watts per square meter (i.e. referencing to solar output):

CO2: 1.66 w/m^2
other anthropogenic gases (methane, nitrous oxide, etc.): 0.98 w/m^2

solar variation: 0.12 w/m^2 (likely to be scaled down, since the last solar minimum just ended shows that solar output has decreased over the time frame we've had accurate satellite measurement of it since the llate 70s, while global temperature has increased over the same time frame).
total anthropogenic contribution to global warming: 1.66 w/m^2

If you look at the diagram, you will notice that there are also anthropogenic effects that counteract some of the warming effects, like landuse causing albedo changes, and aerosol effects, which is why CO2 causes more of an effect by itself than the total anthropogenic effect, since there are offsetting anthropogenic effects. But if you do the math, that works out to over 90% of the change in temp being due to anthropogenic, as opposed to natural, causes

I'm not sure why georgeob thinks the IPCC is being equivocal. They consider ALL the effects on climate change and say with steadily increasing statistical certainty that it is happening and is due mainly to anthropogenic causes.
okie
 
  2  
Reply Wed 1 Dec, 2010 07:26 pm
@MontereyJack,
MontereyJack wrote:
But if you do the math, that works out to over 90% of the change in temp being due to anthropogenic, as opposed to natural, causes
Assuming you are interpreting the math in the report correctly, I would have to say that parados is therefore wrong for all practical purposes in what he told me, because I think 90% is essentially close enough to being 100% as to mean about the same. Thanks for your answer, MJ.
0 Replies
 
 

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