71
   

Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Sat 27 Feb, 2010 07:41 am
@ican711nm,
I would like these Global Warming Thuggees to answer a simple question : What should the temp of the world be with just the natural forces that are still taking us out of an Ice Age ? With only natural warming... no man made influence... what should the temp be ? Because if they dont know that then how can they determine what is man made ?

Politics is determining Global Warming, not science.
Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Sat 27 Feb, 2010 07:47 am
@ican711nm,
As the USA gets weaker, China will get stronger. It doesnt seem this Global Warming rubbish was invented by anyone friendly to the USA. Oh, thats right, it started in Europe and is very popular there...where they have already achieved several of the goals they want the USA to comply with...
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 27 Feb, 2010 11:29 am
@Ionus,
Ionus wrote:
What should the temp of the world be with just the natural forces that are still taking us out of an Ice Age ?

Excellent question!

Up to now, all we have are estimates of the percentage that human caused increases in CO2 in the atmosphere since 1910 have contributed to the average annual global temperature increase over that same period:
A few have estimated that percentage to be less than 0.1%,
0.001 x (1°C or 1.8°F) = 0.001°C or 0.0018°F.

I wonder if anyone has a provable more accurate estimate?
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Sat 27 Feb, 2010 01:08 pm
@okie,
Damn, you're dense. You literally have no idea what you are talking about.

Part of your problem is that you believe that all questions can be answered through what you term 'common sense.' But your common sense is frequently illogical in the extreme and unsupported by evidence.

Let's look at your post -

Quote:
Next time I put up a thermostat in my house, using your reasoning, I will place it right above my kitchen range above the burner where I heat the teakettle. After all, that is one of the handiest places for me to see it and adjust it while cooking breakfast and supper.


You're not thinking about what I said correctly.

Let us say that you DO place a thermostat in your living room, and one above your stove, which, as you say, fluctuates more wildly in temperature then one in your living room. You take an average of the high point and the low point of the temp each day from both of them, and unsurprisingly, the one above the stove is 10 to 15 degrees higher then the one in the living room.

But, over the course of the year, as summer comes on, both of the thermometers show a rise in temperature. The one over the stove shows an average of 90 degrees every day now, instead of the 80 it did before. The one in the living room shows an average of 75 degrees now, instead of 65 as it did before. When you compare the change in temperatures, they are the same - no matter what the base starting temperature of either thermometer is. This is exactly what the climate scientists do and why it doesn't destroy their data to have weather stations in areas which might be hotter or colder then ones around them. It isn't the total temperature of any one station that matters, it's the average rate of change.

There's no need for a 'correction factor.' The rate of change is independent of what the starting temperatures were. Parados spent several posts trying to explain this to you, and you have stubbornly ignored everything he's said - because it wrecks your little 'gotcha' and you don't want that to happen.

I think you are correct that I could be a successful comedian; because being a good comedian takes intelligence, precise timing, and insight into the human condition. I'm sure you will understand when I say that I think that you would make a poor comedian.

Cycloptichorn
okie
 
  0  
Reply Sat 27 Feb, 2010 01:36 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
That is another unbelievably stupid post, in the name of science. Are you really that stupid?
ican711nm
 
  0  
Reply Sat 27 Feb, 2010 04:41 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:
The rate of change is independent of what the starting temperatures were.

FALSE! The rate of change is most definitely dependent on what the starting temperatures of both the heater AND what is heated. Obviously if what is heated starts at the same temperature as the heater, there will likely not be any temperature increase.

It depends on how big the room is AND how well the room is insolated PLUS other factors. Generally, the amount of temperature increase in a closed, highly insulated room is not directly proportional to the temperature of a constant heater in that room. Typically, the higher the starting temperature for a constant heater temperature, the smaller will be the magnitude of the temperature increase of the room.

Also, doubling the heater temperature in a closed room will not necessarily double the temperature in that room.

okie
 
  0  
Reply Sat 27 Feb, 2010 06:30 pm
@ican711nm,
I thought about trying to explain some of the same things as you have done for cyclops, but seriously ican, it reaches the point to where it is futile to try to talk reasonably with someone that seems not to have an iota of reasoning power in regard to some of the simplest scientific situations. I have to wonder if cyclops even took any science in high school, let alone college. Cyclops if you are reading this, we've had lots of debates, but seriously you better stick with something other than climate or any other scientific discipline, you just don't have what it takes at all to even understand the simplest of things. Seriously, I mean no offense, but sometimes the discussion becomes so ridiculous that I am compelled to have to just tell you straight up that you are simply lost if you can't understand the reasoning I used in the simplest of illustrations, as the thermostat above the stove.
ican711nm
 
  0  
Reply Sat 27 Feb, 2010 07:46 pm
@okie,
Okie, the fact that it is futile to try to get Cyclops to respond reasonably to logic and facts is not arguable. I made my post in response to Cyclops, because I wanted to provide additional evidence to what you already provided to reduce the probability others would think they had a rational excuse for thinking what Cyclops posted was rational.

While that too may prove futile, I wanted to give it a try anyway.
0 Replies
 
Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Sat 27 Feb, 2010 07:46 pm
@okie,
Quote:
Dickhead said : There's no need for a 'correction factor.'
Is he lying or is he totally unaware of the correction factor that believers have to and have applied ?
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Sun 28 Feb, 2010 01:51 am
@ican711nm,
Dude, the 'living room vs. kitchen' thing is just an example. Actual testing stations are outside, and I assure you that factors such as the 'size of the room' are not a problem when dealing with stations in different outdoor areas.

Cycloptichorn
okie
 
  1  
Reply Sun 28 Feb, 2010 06:04 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
I am curious, cyclops, not to say that I believe it takes someone that has taken science courses in high school, or college, or not to say that excelling in those courses also give you the only qualifications necessary to be able to have some degree of reasoning power in regard to this, but I am curious about your education. What science courses did you have in high school or college, and what kind of grades did you make? And in your working career, what scientific field have you worked in, or have you in any? I am also curious about math courses, because I think proficiency in math indicates a higher degree of reasoning power.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  0  
Reply Sun 28 Feb, 2010 06:07 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
cyclops, you posted:
Cycloptichorn wrote:

The rate of change is independent of what the starting temperatures were.

Presumably you meant the rate of change [of temperature] is independent of [location and] what the starting temperatures were.
My response to that assertion of yours was merely a valid argument of why your statement is false. It is false inside a room. It is false outside a room. It is false on the top of mountains. It is false at the bottom of valleys. It is false on the plains. It is false on water. It is false everywhere EXCEPT where atmospheric pressure, and the radiation and absorbtion of heat are designed to be constant (e.g., in a laboratory).
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 10:17 am
@ican711nm,
ican711nm wrote:

cyclops, you posted:
Cycloptichorn wrote:

The rate of change is independent of what the starting temperatures were.

Presumably you meant the rate of change [of temperature] is independent of [location and] what the starting temperatures were.
My response to that assertion of yours was merely a valid argument of why your statement is false. It is false inside a room. It is false outside a room. It is false on the top of mountains. It is false at the bottom of valleys. It is false on the plains. It is false on water. It is false everywhere EXCEPT where atmospheric pressure, and the radiation and absorbtion of heat are designed to be constant (e.g., in a laboratory).


Nah, it's not. The idea that scientists cannot account for, say, a difference in pressure due to elevation, is silly. Of course they can. The rate of change at two separate locations CAN be compared, even if the locations are vastly different and start at different temperatures.

Adding 10 degrees into a system is the same, whether that system starts at 40F or 50F.

Cycloptihcorn
okie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 11:38 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Adding 10 degrees into a system is the same, whether that system starts at 40F or 50F.

Cycloptihcorn

Another laughable assertion, another of numerous by now. That statement only heightens my curiosity about your science education, as I posed in the question in previous post.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 11:56 am
@okie,
okie wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Adding 10 degrees into a system is the same, whether that system starts at 40F or 50F.

Cycloptihcorn

Another laughable assertion, another of numerous by now. That statement only heightens my curiosity about your science education, as I posed in the question in previous post.


I took several physics and chemistry classes in high school and college, with engineering Calculus being the highest math class I took. Not that it matters at all.

Perhaps you can explain my error? You've done a lot of laughing and pointing and zero explaining of why what I wrote was incorrect. I suspect this is because you are not capable of explaining this.

Cycloptichorn
okie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 12:01 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
You took several chemistry and physics classes, and you don't know what is in error with your assertion? Good grief!!! Put simply, correction for temperature contaminations are not straight line equations, at least not from one monitoring station to another. That should be totally obvious to anyone, cyclops.

Are you so extremely partisan that you have thrown all common sense out the window?
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 12:06 pm
@okie,
okie wrote:

You took several chemistry and physics classes, and you don't know what is in error with your assertion? Good grief!!! Put simply, correction for temperature contaminations are not straight line equations, at least not from one monitoring station to another. That should be totally obvious to anyone, cyclops.

Are you so extremely partisan that you have thrown all common sense out the window?


Who said anything about temperature contamination? I made a perfectly true statement about adding energy into a system from two separate starting points of temperature.

But, to go along with you: why are they not straight-line equations? Explain in greater depth. And please - don't use the term 'common sense,' because the truth is that you don't actually have much of that, and it's just something you say when you mean 'I'm correct, but have no evidence or logic to support it.' You do this a lot.

Cycloptichorn
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 12:25 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/28/opinion/28friedman.html?pagewanted=print

Quote:
February 28, 2010
Op-Ed Columnist
How the G.O.P. Goes Green
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

It is early evening on Capitol Hill, and I am sitting with Senator Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina Republican, who, along with John Kerry and Joe Lieberman, is trying to craft a new energy bill " one that could actually win 60 votes. What is interesting about Graham is that he has been willing " courageously in my view " to depart from the prevailing G.O.P. consensus that the only energy policy we need is “drill, baby, drill.”

What brought you around, I ask? Graham’s short answer: politics, jobs and legacy. We start with politics. The Republican Party today has a major outreach problem with two important constituencies, “Hispanics and young people,” Graham explains:

“I have been to enough college campuses to know if you are 30 or younger this climate issue is not a debate. It’s a value. These young people grew up with recycling and a sensitivity to the environment " and the world will be better off for it. They are not brainwashed. ... From a Republican point of view, we should buy into it and embrace it and not belittle them. You can have a genuine debate about the science of climate change, but when you say that those who believe it are buying a hoax and are wacky people you are putting at risk your party’s future with younger people. You can have a legitimate dispute about how to solve immigration, but when you start focusing on the last names of people the demographics will pass you by.”


So Graham’s approach to bringing around his conservative state has been simple: avoid talking about “climate change,” which many on the right don’t believe. Instead, frame our energy challenge as a need to “clean up carbon pollution,” to “become energy independent” and to “create more good jobs and new industries for South Carolinians.” He proposes “putting a price on carbon,” starting with a very focused carbon tax, as opposed to an economywide cap-and-trade system, so as to spur both consumers and industries to invest in and buy new clean energy products. He includes nuclear energy, and insists on permitting more offshore drilling for oil and gas to give us more domestic sources, as we bridge to a new clean energy economy.

“Cap-and-trade as we know it is dead, but the issue of cleaning up the air and energy independence should not die " and you will never have energy independence without pricing carbon,” Graham argues. “The technology doesn’t make sense until you price carbon. Nuclear power is a bet on cleaner air. Wind and solar is a bet on cleaner air. You make those bets assuming that cleaning the air will become more profitable than leaving the air dirty, and the only way it will be so is if the government puts some sticks on the table " not just carrots. The future economy of America and the jobs of the future are going to be tied to cleaning up the air, and in the process of cleaning up the air this country becomes energy independent and our national security is greatly enhanced.”

Remember, he adds: “We are more dependent on foreign oil today than after 9/11. That is political malpractice, and every member of Congress is responsible.”

This isn’t just for the next generation, says Graham: “As you talk about the future, if you forget the people who live in the present, you will have no future politically. You have to get the people in the present to buy into the future. I tell my voters: ‘If we try to clean up the air and become energy independent, we will create more jobs than anything I can do as a senator.’ General Electric makes all the turbines for the G.E. windmills in Greenville, South Carolina.” He also is pushing to make his state a manufacturing center for nuclear reactor components and biomass from plants and timber.

What would most help him bring around his G.O.P. colleagues? The business lobby. “The Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers need to tell my colleagues it is O.K. to price carbon, if you do it smartly,” he says.

Sure, Graham’s strategy will give many greens heartburn. I don’t agree with every point. But if there is going to be a clean energy bill, greens and Democrats will have to recruit some Republicans. Graham says he’s ready to meet them in the middle. “We’ve got to get started,” he says, “because once we do, every C.E.O. will adopt a carbon strategy, no matter what the law actually requires.”

And for those Republicans who think this is only a loser, Senator Graham says think again: “What is our view of carbon as a party? Are we the party of carbon pollution forever in unlimited amounts? Pricing carbon is the key to energy independence, and the byproduct is that young people look at you differently.” Look at how he is received in colleges today. “Instead of being just one more short, white Republican over 50,” says Graham, “I am now semicool. There is an awareness by young people that I am doing something different.”

Five more G.O.P. senators like him and we could have a real energy bill.

“We can’t be a nation that always tries and fails,” Graham concludes. “We have to eventually get some hard problem right.”


Never thought I'd say it, but Lindsay Graham is exactly right in the section that I bolded above.

Have you Conservatives ever wondered why there really are no younger Conservatives on this board at all? I mean, is there anyone who is what you would consider to be 'actually conservative' who is under the age of 30? 40, even? I don't think you guys realize that the younger generations hold profoundly different views about the world and our responsibilities to steward it then you oldsters do.

If your politicians - and you yourselves - can't figure this out, you're going to lose election after election as the younger generation grows up.

Cycloptichorn
okie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 02:28 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Who said anything about temperature contamination? I made a perfectly true statement about adding energy into a system from two separate starting points of temperature.

But, to go along with you: why are they not straight-line equations? Explain in greater depth. And please - don't use the term 'common sense,' because the truth is that you don't actually have much of that, and it's just something you say when you mean 'I'm correct, but have no evidence or logic to support it.' You do this a lot.

Cycloptichorn

Obviously if you place a monitoring station in an asphalt parking lot or next to a heater or aircondictioning vent, or above a barbecue grill, those kinds of things are contaminants to otherwise average temperatures in an area. And simply put, in as simple of terms as you are capable of understanding, heat or cooling effects from the contaminants, such as asphalt parking lots, heater or aircondition vents, and barbecue grills, are not constantly emitting the same level of contamination to temperature readings. Why would that be, you might ask. In as simple terms as possible, the sun is not always shining on the asphalt all the time at the same angle, nor do people in the buildings run the heaters and airconditioners all the time or at the same settings, nor are people always barbecuing hamburgers or whatever else on the grill, nor would they always barbecue the same amount of stuff. Nor is the wind blowing the same rate from the same direction all the time, which also would greatly affect how the contaminants reach the weather station measurement equipment. One could imagine all manner of other things that wind would affect, like jet engine exhaust next to a weather station next to an airport runway. Do you need any more explanation to hopefully help you understand this a little better, cyclops? The above are just some of the reasons the contaminant of temperature readings at poorly sited weather stations do not lend themselves to straightline corrections, or any other kinds of corrections for that matter. Any questions, class?
ican711nm
 
  2  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 02:45 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Nah, it's not. The idea that scientists cannot account for, say, a difference in pressure due to elevation, is silly. Of course they can. The rate of change at two separate locations CAN be compared, even if the locations are vastly different and start at different temperatures.

Adding 10 degrees into a system is the same, whether that system starts at 40F or 50F.


Your statement about what scientists can account for has nothing to do with your prior false statement and my argument declaring it false. You made a false statement about rate of change of temperature being independent of what the starting temperatures were. Try again!

Cycloptichorn wrote:
The rate of change is independent of what the starting temperatures were.

ican711nm wrote:
FALSE! The rate of change is most definitely dependent on what the starting temperatures of both the heater AND what is heated. Obviously if what is heated starts at the same temperature as the heater, there will likely not be any temperature increase.

It depends on how big the room is AND how well the room is insolated PLUS other factors. Generally, the amount of temperature increase in a closed, highly insulated room is not directly proportional to the temperature of a constant heater in that room. Typically, the higher the starting temperature for a constant heater temperature, the smaller will be the magnitude of the temperature increase of the room.

Also, doubling the heater temperature in a closed room will not necessarily double the temperature in that room.



Cycloptichorn wrote:
The rate of change is independent of what the starting temperatures were.

ican711nm wrote:
Presumably you meant the rate of change [of temperature] is independent of [location and] what the starting temperatures were.
My response to that assertion of yours was merely a valid argument of why your statement is false. It is false inside a room. It is false outside a room. It is false on the top of mountains. It is false at the bottom of valleys. It is false on the plains. It is false on water. It is false everywhere EXCEPT where atmospheric pressure, and the radiation and absorbtion of heat are designed to be constant (e.g., in a laboratory).

 

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