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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 09:46 pm
@Ionus,
But let's look at your argument in more depth.

You argue that we can't figure out how much heat there is based only on a maximum and minimum. I showed that we can compare how much heat there is based on maximum and minimum.

We know that the average for the day must always be between the maximum and minimum. You do agree with that, don't you?
We also know that for every day if you take readings every hour, that average may not equal the average of just the max/min.

So, if we were to take readings every hour and compare that average to the average for the max/min we would find that there is some relationship that could be shown to exist statistically. We would be able to show that the average of readings every hour has a 95% probability to be within a certain range compared to the average of max/min.

So, let's take readings for 100 days and compare the 2 averages. Now, if we take those 100 readings we can find a formula where 1/2 of the averages by hour are less than the min/max average and 1/2 are more. Surely you would agree with that.

This is what you want to be the day's average - DA

DA = min + max + 23 other readings between min and max (or how many other readings you want to insist)

DAX= (DA1+DA2+DA3...+DAn)/n
would give us the average for n number of days DAX


MMA is the average using only min/max
MMA= (min+max)/2


MMAX = (MMA1+MMA2+MMA3...+MMAn)/n
would again give us the average for n number of days - MMAX

Do you agree that we could write
MMAX + Z = DAX
where Z is some unknown number but could be calculated?


Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 09:52 pm
@parados,
Quote:
I showed that we can compare how much heat there is based on maximum and minimum.
No you didnt. You showed that in extreme cases it is obvious and we dont need to measure anything.

Quote:
We know that the average for the day must always be between the maximum and minimum. You do agree with that, don't you?
Correct.

Quote:
So, if we were to take readings every hour and compare that average to the average for the max/min we would find that there is some relationship that could be shown to exist statistically. We would be able to show that the average of readings every hour has a 95% probability to be within a certain range compared to the average of max/min.
This is a big fat assumption. Perhaps you can show experimental evidence where this has been proven ? The rest of your argument can be stopped at this point.
Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 09:55 pm
@parados,
Perhaps you have heard of ican's posts ? I know you dont read them. He regularly presents scientists who disagree with Global Warming.
0 Replies
 
Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 09:56 pm
@parados,
Are you denying it has been presented to you before only for you to recoil away in horror and disbelief ? Have you forgotten ?
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 10:03 pm
@Ionus,
Quote:
This is a big fat assumption. Perhaps you can show experimental evidence where this has been proven ? The rest of your argument can be stopped at this point.

It's hardly an assumption because you have already agreed that it is true.

We know for a fact that there is 100% probability that the average of temperatures taken every hour must be between the max and min. That means there has to be a smaller range between the max/min where the probability would be 95% and a smaller range where it would be 90%, etc.

If you were to roll a pair of 6 sided dice, we can say 100% of the time if we add up the dice we will get a number between 2 and 12. We can also say we won't get a number between 3 and 11 100% of the time. This is simple probability Ionus. Surely you realize that casinos rely on it.
parados
 
  0  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 10:05 pm
@parados,

Let's go back to the rest of my post

Quote:
So, let's take readings for 100 days and compare the 2 averages. Now, if we take those 100 readings we can find a formula where 1/2 of the averages by hour are less than the min/max average and 1/2 are more. Surely you would agree with that.

This is what you want to be the day's average - DA

DA = min + max + 23 other readings between min and max (or how many other readings you want to insist)

DAX= (DA1+DA2+DA3...+DAn)/n
would give us the average for n number of days DAX


MMA is the average using only min/max
MMA= (min+max)/2


MMAX = (MMA1+MMA2+MMA3...+MMAn)/n
would again give us the average for n number of days - MMAX

Do you agree that we could write
MMAX + Z = DAX
where Z is some unknown number but could be calculated?

Do you see any problems with my math? If so, please correct them and tell us why my math is wrong.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 10:10 pm
@parados,
Quote:
@parados,
Quote:

It's hardly an assumption because you have already agreed that it is true.

Are you lying or is this only a memory error ?
Quote:

We know for a fact that there is 100% probability that the average of temperatures taken every hour must be between the max and min. That means there has to be a smaller range between the max/min where the probability would be 95% and a smaller range where it would be 90%, etc.

Incorrect. Did you mean a bigger range where it is 90% ???


Oops.. I guess you didn't delete it quite fast enough Ionus...
parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 10:13 pm
@parados,
Have a good night Ionus.

I'm glad I caught your post before you deleted it. Feel free to delete any others you might post before morning without fear of me copying them before you realize you made rather glaring errors.
Ionus
 
  -1  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 10:14 pm
@parados,
Quote:
Do you agree that we could write
MMAX + Z = DAX
where Z is some unknown number but could be calculated?
I do not agree. Your assumption is that the relationship can be determined without experimentation. It can not.
Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 10:16 pm
@parados,
Quote:
Have a good night Ionus.
Thank you. You too.
Quote:
I'm glad I caught your post before you deleted it.
Of course you are glad. That is the sort of person you are...
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Feb, 2010 07:55 am
@Ionus,
If we do the experiment, do you agree we could calculate Z?
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Feb, 2010 08:02 am
@Ionus,
Quote:
Of course you are glad. That is the sort of person you are...

It does point out your lack of understanding of statistics.

Or maybe it is your willingness to throw away facts and want me to be wrong



But you do agree that your statement was incorrect, don't you?

The example would be 2 dice.
100% probability of the number rolled being from 2 -12
97% probability of the number rolled being from 3-12
94% probability of the number rolled being from 3-11

So, we can agree that as the range of numbers gets smaller, the probability of rolling a number in that range is smaller.

Ionus
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Feb, 2010 08:11 am
@parados,
Quote:
It does point out your lack of understanding of statistics.
Wrong. It is an indication of doing two things at once.
Quote:
So, we can agree that as the range of numbers gets smaller, the probability of rolling a number in that range is smaller.
Correct.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Feb, 2010 08:18 am
@parados,
parados wrote:

If we do the experiment, do you agree we could calculate Z?

Let me make this even MORE basic for you Ionus.

1.
If X and Y are real numbers
and if X-Y=Z
Then do you agree that Z must be a real number?

Now..
2.
if
X+Y= W
Do you agree that W must be a real number?

And finally
3.
If X and Y are real numbers and Y is NOT zero
and
If X/Y = U
Do you agree that W must be a real number?


A simple yes/no to examples 1-3 would be helpful so I know we are both starting from the same page.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Feb, 2010 08:30 am
@parados,
correction - 3 should read -

3.
If X and Y are real numbers and Y is NOT zero
and
If X/Y = U
Do you agree that U must be a real number?
Ionus
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Feb, 2010 08:34 am
@parados,
Let me know when you get to Global Warming being wrong. I am going to bed. Have a good day, parados.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Feb, 2010 08:39 am
@Ionus,
So, we can't even agree how basic math works?

huh...

I am trying to find common ground here Ionus. But if you won't even agree that simple algebra exist, I don't see how we can talk about anything more complicated.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  0  
Reply Thu 4 Feb, 2010 10:59 am
@parados,
If you raise on objections, then I will assume you have no problems and will continue to build my case based on what you have tacitly agreed to.

That leads us to 4 and 5


4.
If you measure temperature using a common scale such as celsius. the readings will all be real numbers.


5. The number of temperature readings taken will always be a positive integer and will equal the number of readings
IF R is a reading then
R1, R2, R3... Rn where n is a positive integer equaling the number of readings

Now based on 1-5
We can conclude
that
Quote:
DA = min + max + 23 other readings between min and max (or how many other readings you want to insist)

DAX= (DA1+DA2+DA3...+DAn)/n
would give us the average for n number of days DAX


MMA is the average using only min/max
MMA= (min+max)/2


MMAX = (MMA1+MMA2+MMA3...+MMAn)/n
would again give us the average for n number of days - MMAX



DAX - MMAX = Z
Where Z has to be a real number

And we can also say the following
MMAX + Z = DAX


So, there appears to be no problem with the math I presented earlier that you disagreed with based on 1-5 unless you want to disagree with one of those simple math principles.

So now let's make the next step.
6.
If X and Y are real numbers and
If X = Y+2
So if we assigned 10 variables to X and graphed it
then any graph of X would show the exact same trend line as graphing Y+2


7. Now we are back to dice and probability.
If we roll a pair of dice and chart the totals we will get the following -
Short term trends could show up and down variations in the total.
The long term trend will flatten out the more times we throw the dice until it eventually reaches a point where it will stay flat. This may take 15 throws, 100 throws or 500 but eventually it will stay flat because of probability that the dice will be 7 or higher is 50/50 compared to it being 7 or lower.
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Feb, 2010 11:35 am
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
Jan-Dec Global Mean Temperature over Land & Ocean
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif
Average Annual Global Temperature 1850-2009
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif
Average Annual Global Temperature 1850-2009
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb
As of December 20, 2007, more than 400 prominent scientists from more than two dozen countries have voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.

Quote:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report
360
Geologist C. Robert Shoup authored a summer 2007 scientific study for the American Association of Petroleum Geologists in which he debunked global warming fears. "The hypothesis of Anthropogenic Global Warming does not yet meet the basic scientific standards of proof needed to be accepted as a viable hypothesis, much less as accepted fact," Shoup wrote in the study titled "Science Under Attack." Shoup concluded, "A comprehensive review of the climate data suggests that many global warming advocates do not present data that is contradictory to their beliefs. In addition, the constant call to end debate and silence scientists who challenge the hypothesis of Anthropogenic Global Warming is a violation of scientific protocol and has the affect of suppressing healthy scientific debate."

Quote:
361
Horticulturalist Alan Titchmarch, a prominent naturalist who hosts the popular "The Nature of Britain" program on the BBC, received the Royal Horticultural Society’s highest award " the Victoria Medal of Honor " for outstanding services to horticulture. Titchmarch also joined the climate skeptics in 2007. "Our climate has always changed," Titchmarch said according to an October 6, 2007 article in the UK Telegraph. "I wish we could grow up about it," he explained, "I'm sure we are contributing to global warming, and we must do all we can to reduce that, but our climate has always changed. The Romans had vineyards in Yorkshire. We're all on this bandwagon of ‘Ban the 4x4 in Fulham'. Why didn't we have global warming during the Industrial Revolution? In those days you couldn't have seen across the street for all the carbon emissions and the crap coming out of the chimneys," he said. Titchmarch also rejected fears of warming induced species loss. "We'll lose some, we'll gain others. Wildlife is remarkably tenacious. Nature always copes," he said. (LINK)

0 Replies
 
Ionus
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Feb, 2010 05:10 pm
@parados,
Thank God you have only trained as a lawyer and have no scientific training. Have you even heard of listing assumptions ? Of pointing out possible errors and how they have been overcome ? Of determing through experiment how best to approximate values in the future modelling ? What method was used to determine a sample size that would be significant ? Meanwhile you think you are being clever by explaining what is a real number ?
Who told you that you understand all this, because I think they were being heavily saecastic.
 

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