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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
Foxfyre
 
  2  
Reply Sat 18 Apr, 2009 10:21 am
@H2O MAN,
Yes, Deckland posted something similar from The Australian.

It's always interesting to see how many of the hard core pro-AGW group ignore stuff like that though.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 18 Apr, 2009 11:14 am
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:

It's always interesting to see how many of the hard core pro-AGW group ignore stuff like that though.


You are referring to what publications or scientists here especially?
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 18 Apr, 2009 11:18 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Mostly the pro-AGW people who are trying to foist what is most likely bogus science onto us all.

One of many examples: You don't hear James Hansen or Al Gore talking about Anarctica actually cooling and increasing its ice coverage on average. That would be too inconvenient a truth for them. You probably won't see any of the pro-AGW advocates on this thread agreeing with those articles either or saying they should be strongly factored into the total picture. I can imagine some are scrambling trying to find a source to dispute the opinion though.
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 18 Apr, 2009 11:27 am
@Foxfyre,
You know, maybe part of the reason is that the cooling trend and increase in ice coverage is only part of the picture:

http://imgur.com/2EGPA.jpg

What do you think?
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 18 Apr, 2009 11:28 am
@Foxfyre,
Actually, I asked you to name publications and/or scientists.
(Like the British Antarctic survey "We believe the warming on the Antarctic Peninsula is related to global climate change, though the links are not entirely clear.")
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 18 Apr, 2009 11:43 am
@Walter Hinteler,
I'll leave that up to you Walter, as that does not materially factor into the point I was making. I gave you a couple of names. You can link them to their websites and/or publications if you really don't know who they are or what they have written.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 18 Apr, 2009 12:25 pm
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb

As of December 20, 2007, over 400 prominent scientists--not a minority of those scientists who have published their views on global warming--from more than two dozen countries have voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.

Quote:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report

259
Biologist Josef Reichholf, who heads the Vertebrates Department at the National Zoological Collection in Munich, rejected climate fears and asserted global warming will be beneficial to humans and animals, particularly polar bears. Fears of mass species extinctions because of global warming are "nothing but fear-mongering, for which there is no concrete evidence. On the contrary, there is much to be said for the argument that warming temperatures promote biodiversity. There is a clear relationship between biodiversity and temperature. The number of species increases exponentially from the regions near the poles across the moderate latitudes and to the equator. To put it succinctly, the warmer a region is, the more diverse are its species," Reichholf said in an interview with Der Spiegel on May 8, 2007. Reichholf, a professor of ecology and conservation at both of Munich's two universities, and author of the book A Short Natural History of the Last Millennium, continued, "As recently as the 1960s, people were more concerned about a new ice age -- and that would indeed pose a great danger to us. The most catastrophic eras were those in which the weather became worse, not phases of warmer climates. Precisely because we have to feed a growing population on this planet, we should in fact embrace a warmer climate. In warmer regions it takes far less effort to ensure survival," he said. "How did the polar bear survive the last warm period? Seals are the polar bear's most important source of food, and the Canadians slaughter tens of thousands of them every spring. That's why life is becoming more and more difficult for polar bears, and not because it's getting warmer. Look at the polar bear's close relative, the brown bear. It is found across a broad geographic region, ranging from Europe across the Near East and North Asia, to Canada and the United States. Whether bears survive will depend on human beings, not the climate," he said. Fear of spreading malaria is also unfounded, according to Reichholf. "That's another one of those myths. Many people truly believe that malaria will spread as temperatures rise. But malaria isn't even a true tropical disease. In the 19th century, thousands of people in Europe, including Germany, the Netherlands and even Scandinavia, died of malaria, even though they had never gone abroad. That's because this disease was still prevalent in northern and central Europe in previous centuries. We only managed to eliminate malaria in Europe by quarantining the sick, improving hygiene and draining swamps. That's why I consider it virtually impossible that malaria would return to us purely because of climate change. If it does appear, it'll be because it has been brought in somewhere," he said. "There have been much faster climate fluctuations in the past, which did not automatically lead to a global extinction of species. As a biologist, I can tell you that only the fewest animals and plants are accustomed to rigid climate conditions," he added. (LINK)

0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 18 Apr, 2009 03:39 pm
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:
Speaking purely as a layperson and with no pretense of any scientific expertise, it seems to me that if melt in Anarctica does not occur from time to time, the ice mass would continue to grow and grow and grow until it took over everything.

Foxfyre, with that observation you've earned an honorary degree in science!
okie
 
  1  
Reply Sat 18 Apr, 2009 09:01 pm
@ican711nm,
ican711nm wrote:

Foxfyre wrote:
Speaking purely as a layperson and with no pretense of any scientific expertise, it seems to me that if melt in Anarctica does not occur from time to time, the ice mass would continue to grow and grow and grow until it took over everything.

Foxfyre, with that observation you've earned an honorary degree in science!

Brilliant, but its amazing how few people grasp a simple concept, or accept it. We have discussed this before, but virtually everything, perhaps everything, in nature, is cyclical, whether it be seasons, weather, climate, life cycles of plants, animals, whatever. Nothing is static in nature, and it never was.

Now we have a group of people that are into panicking everytime something in nature changes, some bird species declines, whatever, and suddenly they must crusade to save that particular bird, or lizard, or turtle, everything is a crisis. Same thing with climate, they apparently believe it should stay absolutely the same, every year I guess? And after all the hand wringing, what we have now is a fraction of one degree centigrade change over the past few decades, and they are afraid the earth is in its death throws!
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Apr, 2009 07:23 am
@okie,
Since it is cyclical okie. Could you please point to the last cycle where CO2 increased before temperature did?

Then you can point to the last time the global temperature increased 1 degree in 100 years since that is cyclical as well.

There is a problem with your "cyclical" argument if you can't point to the cycle.
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Apr, 2009 08:43 am
@parados,
Well if CO2 DOESN'T increase before temperature does, then why all the hype that increased CO2 is driving the temperature rather than the other way around? And if temperature drives CO2, then how in the world can extreme and costly measures to reduce CO2 be expected to have ANY effect on global temperature?

There is a rough cyclical rhythm here on the high desert that 5 to 15 years of more moisture is generally followed by 5 to 15 years of less moisture, but it is not regular and will vary by years from time to time. There is a cyclical pattern to the monsoon that generally arrives here each July, sometimes earlier, sometimes later. Sometimes it brings impressive moisture; some years it is barely noticable that it came at all.

But to presume to measure global climate cycles within 100 or 1000 years strikes me as pretty naive.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Apr, 2009 09:01 am
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:

But to presume to measure global climate cycles within 100 or 1000 years strikes me as pretty naive.


So you're really an expert in meteorology and climatologistic sciences?
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  2  
Reply Sun 19 Apr, 2009 09:18 am
@Foxfyre,
Quote:

Well if CO2 DOESN'T increase before temperature does
Well, if it doesn't then you can't argue that it is cyclical, can you? You fail to account for the changes that have never occurred before if you want to argue "cyclical." This is the typical arguments that your side presents Fox. You try to poke holes in the arguments of the other side while never presenting any theory that covers all the known facts. If you want to argue that it is cyclical then present your science that accounts for the known fact that CO2 is increasing BEFORE the temperature increase rather than trailing it by several hundred years as it always did in the past. The problem is that in the past when CO2 increased, the temperature CONTINUED to increase so any argument that CO2 doesn't contribute to increased temperature appears to be unsupported by science.

Quote:
There is a rough cyclical rhythm here on the high desert...

It's called El Nino and La Nina Fox. It changes the weather pattern in the US but it is cyclical and well known. If you add up the years it takes for the changes to happen, they are less than what is required to study climate.

Quote:
But to presume to measure global climate cycles within 100 or 1000 years strikes me as pretty naive.
Lots of things appear to "strike" you Fox. That doesn't give it any scientific validity just because it hits you. Climate science has rules. If you want to argue about those rules then present something other than your ignorance.
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Apr, 2009 12:22 pm
@parados,
I think I can argue that it is cyclical based on the broad cycles determined by climate experts that we have posted again and again. I just don't define 'cyclical' as narrowly as you seem to wish to do. Those scientists that make the most sense to me describe climate cycles in millenia and eons and not in years or decades or centuries.

I think 'my side' has certainly presented as much or more support for its argument as 'your side' has presented for yours.

The monsoon has absolutely nothing to do with El Nino or La Nina. It shows up whether either of those other phenomena are present. El Nino and/or La Nina, though certainly not the only forces at work, almost certainly can affect the strength and/or impact of the monsoon when they are present, but the monsoon itself is a seasonal cyclical event that occurs essentially every year. (I say 'essentially' to allow for the possibility of a year in which there was no discernible monsoon though I am unaware that there was any such year.)

I have never claimed that my impression nor my opinions have any validity apart from what I have experienced and/or those impressions/opinions that I share with people known to be experts in their fields.

Are you presuming that you know what the climate rules are and therefore your impressions/opinions are superior to mine? Are you making that claim at this time?



parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Apr, 2009 12:48 pm
@Foxfyre,
You can argue that temperature is cyclical but that doesn't prove anything. One could argue that the tides are cyclical but that doesn't mean they would continue if the moon disappeared. Temperature changes over millenia may be cyclical but says nothing about temperature changes over a few hundred years.

When you provide evidence of a rapid increase in temperature over 200 years then you would have support for your argument otherwise you are just arguing that tsunamis can't happen because the level of water is controlled by the tides.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Apr, 2009 12:55 pm
@Foxfyre,
Quote:
I have never claimed that my impression nor my opinions have any validity apart from what I have experienced and/or those impressions/opinions that I share with people known to be experts in their fields.

Are you presuming that you know what the climate rules are and therefore your impressions/opinions are superior to mine? Are you making that claim at this time?

I am claiming that the climate science that you refuse to accept is the only science that meets and attempts to explain all the observed facts..

1. Explain how your science deals with the fact that CO2 absorbs IR.
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Apr, 2009 01:02 pm
@parados,
I see. So any scientific opinion that I might agree with has no validity according to you and any that I disagree with is the only science that should be considered. You of course have made brilliant arguments backed up by reliable and verifiable sources to support your opinion about that. (cough)

I've never discussed anything about CO2 absorbing IR and have no opinion about that at all. But, if CO2 increase follows warming from IR or some other phenomenon, then please provide a detailed explanation for how CO2 is the primary culprit that causes global warming. And no I won't accept your posting a bunch more scientific data that even you apparently don't understand. I want to hear that explanation from you, in your own words.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Apr, 2009 01:40 pm
An increase in H2O in the atmosphere by an amount W increases IR absorbtion in the atmosphere by an amount X.

An increase in CO2 in the atmosphere by an amount Y increases IR absorbtion in the atmosphere by an amount Z.

Which is greater:
(1) X/W
or
(2) Z/Y?

Why do you, parados, think so?
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Apr, 2009 02:23 pm
@ican711nm,
Since you haven't defined X, W, Y or Z there is no way to answer your question.


Are W and Y in ppm or in grams or some other figure? What figures are you using?

Lets assume that W and Y are the same. That would mean that X and Z would depend on which is greater would result in which equation is greater.

In reality, you leave several things out of your equation. An increase of W won't cause an increase of X always. It depends on the amount of water vapor that is there before. The more water vapor there is, the more IR that is absorbed but only up to a certain point. At some point the existing water vapor will be absorbing all the IR so adding more water vapor will have no effect on the amount of absorption. What happens at that point is you heat up the lower atmosphere because more of the IR is absorbed in the lower atmosphere with less being able to transmit to the upper atmosphere. So, even though the amount of IR hasn't changed, where the absorption occurs has changed.

The same thing will occur with CO2 but CO2 starts with a much lower concentration so it will take longer to get to the full absorption in the atmosphere.

So, in reality, sometimes x/w will be greater and sometimes z/y will be greater. Without values from you, there is no answer to your question.

So, to put this in perspective, W could be increase 100 fold more than Y but Z could still be greater than X. Without values, your question is meaningless.
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Apr, 2009 04:14 pm
@parados,
Excellent response, parados! I'm proud of you!

Now to continue.

An increase in H2O in the atmosphere by W ppm increases IR absorbtion in the atmosphere by an amount X w/m^2.

An increase in CO2 in the atmosphere by Y ppm increases IR absorbtion in the atmosphere by an amount Z w/m^2..

Let W = Y

Which is greater:
(1) X
or
(2) Z?

Why do you, parados, think so?
 

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