I also calculated A-AAGT for the year 2008 by projecting A-AAGT from the year 2005 to 2008, and from this graph:
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Solar_Cycle_Variations_png
Quote:Foxfyre, you mention something that has always puzzled me. The global warmers take one parameter, CO2, and model it, as if it alone must be the most important climatic factor ever discovered it seems, meanwhile another of several parameters that has many times more effect upon climate than CO2 if you just consider greenhouse gases, water vapor, they know very little about in terms of concentrations,
It puzzle me why Fox thinks that. It also puzzles me why you think that.
The model does NOT take CO2 as the only parameter. CO2 however is the only parameter that has increased by 30% in the last 50 years.
Are you seriously suggesting that no one is aware of the concentrations of gases in the atmosphere okie? Ignorance on your part is simply amazing.
Quote:It looks to me like you are talking about how uninformed you are rather than about what science does and doesn't do.And we are only talking about greenhouse gases here, not even considering the multitudes of other possible factors affecting climate.
Okay, please cite where scientists have documented humidity, or water vapor, in the atmosphere over a very long period of time, worldwide. Show me the data, I would like to see it. I think this data is crucial to determine effects upon climate.
A NASA-funded study found some climate models might be overestimating the amount of water vapor entering the atmosphere as the Earth warms. Since water vapor is the most important heat-trapping greenhouse gas in our atmosphere, some climate forecasts may be overestimating future temperature increases.
Global Warming: Natural or Manmade?
“Global warming” refers to the global-average temperature increase that has been observed over the last one hundred years or more. But to many politicians and the public, the term carries the implication that mankind is responsible for that warming. This website describes evidence from my group’s government-funded research that suggests global warming is mostly natural, and that the climate system is quite insensitive to humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions and aerosol pollution.
Believe it or not, very little research has ever been funded to search for natural mechanisms of warming…it has simply been assumed that global warming is manmade. This assumption is rather easy for scientists since we do not have enough accurate global data for a long enough period of time to see whether there are natural warming mechanisms at work.
The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims that the only way they can get their computerized climate models to produce the observed warming is with anthropogenic (human-caused) pollution. But they’re not going to find something if they don’t search for it. More than one scientist has asked me, “What else COULD it be?” Well, the answer to that takes a little digging… and as I show, one doesn’t have to dig very far.
But first let’s examine the basics of why so many scientists think global warming is manmade. Earth’s atmosphere contains natural greenhouse gases (mostly water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane) which act to keep the lower layers of the atmosphere warmer that they otherwise would be without those gases. Greenhouse gases trap infrared radiation " the radiant heat energy that the Earth naturally emits to outer space in response to solar heating. Mankind’s burning of fossil fuels (mostly coal, petroleum, and natural gas) releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and this is believed to be enhancing the Earth’s natural greenhouse effect. As of 2008, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was about 40% to 45% higher than it was before the start of the industrial revolution in the 1800’s.
It is interesting to note that, even though carbon dioxide is necessary for life on Earth to exist, there is precious little of it in Earth’s atmosphere. As of 2008, only 39 out of every 100,000 molecules of air were CO2, and it will take mankind’s CO2 emissions 5 more years to increase that number by 1, to 40.
The “Holy Grail”: Climate Sensitivity Figuring out how much past warming is due to mankind, and how much more we can expect in the future, depends upon something called “climate sensitivity”. This is the temperature response of the Earth to a given amount of ‘radiative forcing’, of which there are two kinds: a change in either the amount of sunlight absorbed by the Earth, or in the infrared energy the Earth emits to outer space.
The ‘consensus’ of opinion is that the Earth’s climate sensitivity is quite high, and so warming of about 0.25 deg. C to 0.5 deg. C (about 0.5 deg. F to 0.9 deg. F) every 10 years can be expected for as long as mankind continues to use fossil fuels as our primary source of energy. NASA’s James Hansen claims that climate sensitivity is very high, and that we have already put too much extra CO2 in the atmosphere. Presumably this is why he and Al Gore are campaigning for a moratorium on the construction of any more coal-fired power plants in the U.S.
You would think that we’d know the Earth’s ‘climate sensitivity’ by now, but it has been surprisingly difficult to determine. How atmospheric processes like clouds and precipitation systems respond to warming is critical, as they are either amplifying the warming, or reducing it. This website currently concentrates on the response of clouds to warming, an issue which I am now convinced the scientific community has totally misinterpreted when they have measured natural, year-to-year fluctuations in the climate system. As a result of that confusion, they have the mistaken belief that climate sensitivity is high, when in fact the satellite evidence suggests climate sensitivity is low.
The case for natural climate change I also present an analysis of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which shows that most climate change might well be the result of….the climate system itself! Because small, chaotic fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic circulation systems can cause small changes in global average cloudiness, this is all that is necessary to cause climate change. You don’t need the sun, or any other ‘external’ influence (although these are also possible…but for now I’ll let others work on that). It is simply what the climate system does. This is actually quite easy for meteorologists to believe, since we understand how complex weather processes are. Your local TV meteorologist is probably a closet ’skeptic’ regarding mankind’s influence on climate.
Climate change " it happens, with or without our help.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/global-warming-natural-or-manmade/
Latest Global Average Tropospheric Temperatures
(Want to see how the current month’s temperatures are shaping up? Check this out.)
Since 1979, NOAA satellites have been carrying instruments which measure the natural microwave thermal emissions from oxygen in the atmosphere. The signals that these microwave radiometers measure at different microwave frequencies are directly proportional to the temperature of different, deep layers of the atmosphere. Every month, John Christy and I update global temperature datasets that represent the piecing together of the temperature data from a total of eleven instruments flying on eleven different satellites over the years. As of 2008, our most stable instrument for this monitoring is the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A) flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite.
The graph above represents the latest update; updates are usually made within the first week of every month. The smooth curve in the graph is a fourth-order polynomial fit to the data, which smooths out the large amount of monthly variability in the data and helps reveal the underlying ‘trends’. (There is no claim that this curve has any predictive power for the coming months or years.)
A Dozen Reasons Why a Former CNN Executive Producer for Science Doesn’t Understand Doubters of Manmade Global Warming
March 18th, 2009
The following editorial appeared on the Huffington Post website today (italicized entries, below)…and I couldn’t help but give the writer some of his own medicine (my responses not italicized, & in parentheses).
NOTE: Foxfyre highlighted Spencer's comments in red.
WHY TO DENY ON CLIMATE CHANGE
By Peter Dykstra
A dozen reasons why climate change deniers are the way they are:
No, there aren’t only a dozen reasons, but some are bigger than others. Scientists and climate change advocates are constantly amazed and appalled at how durable the climate change denial machine is. Here are some of the varied reasons.
1) Compassion fatigue: No one really denies world hunger, but we sure are good at turning away from it. People have been hearing about climate for two decades now, and they’d really not think any more about it.
(Americans give more to charity than any country in the world, and they are perfectly willing to help out…when there is a REAL crisis. They are not so crazy about supporting those who profit off of imaginary ones.)
2) Stigma: Pick one guy and stick with him as the personification of evil. That would be Al Gore, who plays the same role for climate that Jane Fonda did, and still does nearly 40 years later, for Vietnam. Jane has admitted that she made a huge mistake by posing with the North Vietnamese, and neither her multiple apologies, the fact that she was right about the war, nor the otherwise-accepted concept of Christian Forgiveness will ever let her off the hook for millions of Americans.
(Stigma? You mean like labeling us “deniers”? Or “flat-Earthers”? Or “corporate toadies?” Or “Holocaust deniers”?)
3) Dogma: Those who talk about climate change are the same ones who occupy the tenth circle of Hell for many Americans: Politicians, the Media, Scientists, Educators, Hippies, and Showbiz types. So it’s a moral imperative to be agin what they’re for.
(If the shoe fits….)
4) Fear Factor: Losing your SUV, or ATV, is more of a fright than phenology (the effect of climatic changes on the seasons), or melting permafrost, or polar bears.
(Losing liberty over a theoretical threat is the main concern here (no one has ever been killed by manmade global warming…because there is no way to distinguish manmade warming from natural).
5) Manufactured denial: Marc Morano is a Senate staffer for James Inhofe, the Oklahoma Republican who’s said that climate change is a “hoax.” In that role, Morano’s been the Drum Major of the denial parade. The Marc Moranos of the world function for climate the way that Johnnie Cochran functioned for OJ Simpson: Raise enough shreds of doubt, even if you do it in reckless and theatrical ways, and climate change can win an acquittal, or at least a mistrial no matter how strong the rest of the evidence is. (It was reported last week that Morano’s career as a public servant will soon end, and he’ll take the denial machine to the private sector).
(I think a better analogy is one person, Marc Morano posting information…maybe with some spin…versus hundreds or thousands of journalists who are doing the same thing on the other side. Are those odds still not good enough for you?)
6) Devotion: The corollary to not believing anything Al Gore and his ilk is that you must believe everything that a crackpot like Glenn Beck says. [Blogger's Note: The word "ilk" is a very special one. A nonscientific Googling of the terms "Al Gore" and "Ilk" yielded 705 results. "Al Gore" and "Antichrist" got 693 hits, but that's misleading, since the "Antichrist" in question in many of those hits was either Hillary or Obama, and Gore was just mentioned as a henchman.]
(Actually, WE are the ones who tolerate a variety of theories for what causes climate change. We just don’t believe the first place you should look is in the tailpipe of an SUV, or up some bovine orifice.)
7) Lack of backbone in Senior Editorial Management: A long-gone CNN boss of mine once told me that he hesitated about climate change stories. If he had his doubts about a diplomacy story, he said, he could get Henry Kissinger or Madeleine Albright on the phone to explain it to him. But for climate, he said he was “stuck” with only me.
(WHAT? You mean there are MORE ways to be killed by global warming than the 37 that we’ve already heard about??)
8 ) Current events: The Gallup poll just released that shows an increase in the number of Americans who think that climate fears are “exaggerated” also points out that this always happens with many secondary issues when the merde hits the fan "9/11 or Depression tend to make issues like climate seem less important. They also get covered less.
(Yes, there is something about real death and suffering that concerns reasonable people somewhat more than science fiction documentaries.)
9) Credentials: Peer review means nothing to the general public. And it’s unreasonable to expect a casual reader to make a huge distinction between a respected and peer-reviewed climate scientist like Steve Schneider, and the “coal monkeys” (Schneider’s term) who staff the Denial Labs.
(We have peer reviewed science, too, but it is you journalists who don’t have the backbone to report on it. How convenient.)
10) Frank Luntz: Go to www.ewg.org and read the 2003 memo from the peerless Republican consultant. It counsels that manufacturing doubt is the only way to avoid losing the battle. In an interview at last year’s Heartland Institute’s Deny-a-Palooza, Morano claims he’s never read the Luntz memo. Which, if true, means that a superstar political consultant wrote a memo for his party on the environment, and the party’s most prominent environmental spokesman has managed to ignore it for six years?
(Tell me again…who is Frank Luntz, and what does he have to do with me?)
11) Ideology: Environmentalists often make the mistake of tarring all skeptics with the same brush. Not everyone’s on the take from Exxon and Peabody Coal. Not by along shot. But policy fixes to climate change are absolutely toxic to many freemarketers and libertarians.
(“Policy fixes to climate change” is like saying, “let’s outlaw gravity”.)
12) Ossified science: William Gray, the hurricane guy, is the best example of an old-line scientist who has complete contempt for any science that’s not generated in a lab or on a chalkboard. He’ll go to his grave not believing in any global warming, nor anything else that relies on computer models for its science. Chris Mooney’s book “Storm World” tells this story very well.
(Actually, I think Bill Gray has the best answer to ultimately what causes most climate fluctuations, including global warming (and cooling): changes in ocean circulation. In fact, we now have satellite evidence that a major mode of this kind of change " the Pacific Decadal Oscillation " has caused most of the warming we’ve seen in the last century. But don’t look for it in the news when it finally gets published.)
So there’s a dozen reasons for denying climate change, and I didn’t even mention Creationists.
(So, there’s a dozen reasons why a journalist can be misinformed on climate science, and I didn’t even mention Athiests.)
Roy Spencer is a principle research scientist at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. He has been Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama. He directs research into the development and application of satellite passive microwave remote sensing techniques for measuring global temperature, water vapor, and precipitation. Dr. Spencer is the recipient of NASA's Medal for Exceptional Scientific Achievement and the American Meteorological Society's Special Award for his satellite-based temperature monitoring work. He is the author of numerous scientific articles that have appeared in Science, Nature, Journal of Climate, Monthly Weather Review, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, Remote Sensing Reviews, Advances in Space Research, and Climatic Change. Dr. Spencer received his Ph.D. in Meteorology from the University of Wisconsin in 1981.
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report
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Oceanographer Dr. Willem de Lange of the department of Earth and Ocean Sciences at the University of Waikato in New Zealand has published numerous peer-reviewed papers in the areas of coastal processes and climatic hazards; tsunami and storm surge prediction and mitigation; wave-induced sediment transport. He has also declared himself skeptical of man-made climate fears. "The Greenhouse Effect is a climate feedback mechanism - it modifies climate change but does not drive it," de Lange wrote to EPW on December 18, 2007. "Earth's climate is a complex system that is continually changing at different temporal and spatial scales - it may change abruptly, or gradually and affect regions or the whole globe. The primary driver of Earth's Climate at Human time scales is the quantity and quality of Solar radiation - the total amount, and the distribution of radiation across different wavelengths," de Lange explained. "Humans affect climate in a variety of ways - Human impacts are greatest at the micro-scale (your office), and diminish at larger spatial and temporal scales (impact at a global scale over the last 100 years is small - as far as I can tell it tends to disappear into the measurement errors). Emissions of greenhouse gases are a minor contribution to climate feedback as the Greenhouse Effect operates between physically constrained limits," he wrote. "Catastrophic climate changes in the next century are unlikely based on observational data," he concluded.
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Senior Meteorologist Dr. Joe Sobel of Accuweather, winner of the American Meteorological Society 2005 Award for Broadcaster of the Year, asserted that climate change is nothing new. "The climate is changing. The climate has always changed, that is a fact of the earth's existence," Sobel said on January 11, 2007. Sobel has 35 years experience at Accuweather and has also been a member of the American Meteorology Society since 1966. "Only 10,000 years ago -- which is geologically speaking is like [the snap of a finger] -- we were in the midst of an ice age," Sobel said. "There is not much doubt that climate changes and that climate will continue to change," Sobel reiterated. "The question is what is causing it. It is totally a naturally cycle? Is it totally human induced? I suspect the truth lies somewhere in between," he concluded. (LINK) Sobel also lamented the National Hurricane Center's new tropical storm naming policy because he believes it results in false claims of global warming related increases in storms. "Back in the old days... and I'm only talking 5 years or so ago... we did not name sub-tropical storms. Names were only given to storms that were deemed to be truly tropical. In the last few years, there have been a number of sub-tropical storms named. Those named storms go into the total of named storms and obviously increase the number of storms that year and consequently increase the average number of storms per year," Sobel wrote on May 9, 2007 in his blog. "It has been claimed that global warming is responsible for an increasing number of tropical storms and hurricanes, but here is a reason that the number of storms is increasing that has absolutely nothing to do with global warming. It's because we are mixing apples and oranges and calling them all apples!" he added.
The strength of the science on climate change compels us
to warn the nation about the growing risk of irreversible consequences as global average temperatures
continue to increase over pre-industrial levels (i.e., prior to 1860).1,2 As temperatures rise further,
the scope and severity of global warming impacts will continue to accelerate.
We urge U.S. policy makers to put our nation
onto a path today to reduce emissions on the order of 80 percent below 2000 levels by 2050.
The first step on this path should be reductions on the order of 15-20 percent below 2000
levels by 2020, which is achievable and consistent with sound economic policy.
This is 1733 PROMINENT SCIENTISTS that have published their views on global warming by signing this letter.
http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_warming/Scientist_Economists_Call_to_Action_fnl.pdf
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report
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Economist Dr. Owen McShane, chair of the policy panel of the New Zealand based International Climate Science Coalition, slammed "consensus" science on global warming on April 21, 2007. "There is no scientific evidence to justify the wild claims of doom and catastrophe that have made headlines in recent weeks," McShane said. "All we have is a scenario promoted by government funded scientists who are part of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on computer modeling that has been slammed by many independent climatologists around the world as lacking any scientific validity or credibility," he said. "People generally seem not to be aware that the UN defines ‘climate change' as only the effects of climate that result from human activity. It ignores the natural drivers that have governed the global climate for millions of years past. For reasons that have everything to do with politics and nothing to do with science or meteorological observations and records, the present Government committed New Zealand to the Kyoto Protocol that even its most ardent supporters admit will not reduce global warming," McShane asserted. "What Kyoto will do, like the sale of indulgences in the Middle Ages, is make people and organizations pay for emissions of carbon dioxide by buying credits from countries like Russia that have vast tracts of forested land," he concluded.
Parados, This link does not show that all "1733 prominent scientists that have published their views on global warming by signing this letter" endorse any of the IPCC's allegations regarding the cause or causes of global warming.
The strength of the science on climate change compels us...
The 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change2 unequivocally concluded that our
climate is warming, stating with at least 90 percent certainty that the warming of the last several decades is
primarily due to human activities. Global average temperatures have already risen ~ 0.7°C (1.3°F) over the
last 100 years, and impacts are now being observed worldwide.1,2 Human-caused emissions to date have
locked in further changes including sea-level rise that will intensify coastal flooding, and dramatic reductions
in snowpack that will disrupt water supplies in the western United States.1,3 If emissions continue unabated,
our nation and the world will face more sea level rise, heat waves, droughts, wildfires, snowmelt, flood risk,
and public health threats, as well as increased rates of plant and animal species extinctions.1,4
The endorsers
have included their institutional affiliation for identification purposes only, and the
listing below should not be construed to imply any institutional endorsement.
of the top 500 most cited authors in the larger list, just 18 (3.6%) have signed any climate skeptic declaration, while 184 (37%) -- nearly ten times as many -- have signed an 'activist' statement (aside from the IPCC reports themselves.