Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

And I have heard projections that ANWR could produce 1.5 million per day

The low- resource-case production peaks at 510,000 barrels per day in 2028, while the high- resource-case production peaks at 1,450,000 barrels per day in 2028.

And I have heard projections that ANWR could produce 1.5 million per day, but I am told it is miniscule and not worth bothering with by many opponents of it.

http://www.mbendi.co.za/indy/oilg/p0005.htm#25


Introduction

The population of the world continues to grow, as does the average standard of living, increasing demand for food, water and energy and placing increasing pressure on the environment. The population of the world doubled from 3.2 billion in 1962 to 6.4 billion in 2005 and is forecast to grow to 9.2 billion in 2050.

Supplies of oil, gas, coal and uranium are forecast to peak as reserves are depleted. At the same time, fear of climate change is putting pressure on the energy sector to move away from carbon burning to nuclear, solar and other environmentally friendly energy sources.

Oil accounts for between 34% and 37% of the world's primary energy. Components of crude oil are feedstocks to the chemicals, plastics and fertiliser industries.

Crude oil is extracted from the earth and refined to create a range of gas (liquified petroleum gas - LPG), liquid (gasoline, diesel, jet aviation fuel, paraffin, etc) and solid (bitumen) petroleum products. The most sought after crudes are those that are "light" (i.e. contain a high proportion of short chain molecules) and "sweet" (i.e. low sulphur content) as they are easier and cheaper to refine.

...

Crude Production

Crude oil production averaged 82 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2006, a change of 413 tbpd compared to 2005, and 85.7 mbpd in 2007. In 2006, OPEC crude oil production was 43.5% of the world total. Excess OPEC capacity dropped from 6 mbpd in 2002 to 2 million barrels a day in 2006. The countries with the largest 2006 oil production were, in order, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the USA, Iran, China, Mexico, Canada, the UAE, Venezuela, Norway, Kuwait and Nigeria. The Middle East and Russia are forecast to provide an increasing share of world crude production as fields elsewhere mature.

The IEA reports that world crude oil production fell from 73.8 mbpd in 2005 to 73.2 mbpd in the first 10 months of 2007. Some of the fall can be attributed to geological conditions and part to political instability, particularly in Iraq and Nigeria.

According to Chevron, oil production is declining in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries. The CEOs of Total and Conoco Philips both predict it will be difficult to ever reach production of 100 mbpd even though the IEA is predicting production of 116 mbpd by 2030 and the US government 118 mbdp. At the beginning of 2007 Wood Mackenzie forecast conventional peak oil taking place by 2020. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) predicts that peak oil will take place before 2010.

Although Peak Oil is often mentioned in the press in the context of oil supplies to the transportation industry, there is seldom mention of the possible impact of Peak Oil on the chemicals industry and those industries, such as agriculture, plastics and roadworks, further downstream.

Oil Trading

On average, 52 mbpd of oil were moved internationally in 2006. The USA, Europe and Japan were responsible for more than 60% of world oil imports, while the Middle East, Africa and former Soviet Union accounted for more than 65% of world oil exports.

The crude oil spot price averaged $US 72 per barrel in 2007, more than triple the average price in 2002. Towards the end of 2007, the price of crude oil breached US$ 100 per barrel and, in May 2008, US$ 120 per barrel.

Refining

According to the 2007 BP Statistical Energy Survey, world 2006 refinery capacity was 87 mbpd and 2006 refinery throughput was 75 mbpd on average. The countries with the largest oil refining capacity are, in order, the USA, China, Russia, Japan, India, South Korea, Germany, Italy and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is currently doubling its refinery capacity before 2012.

Consumption

World demand for oil reached 85.7 mbpd in 2007, 1% up on the 84.9 mbpd in 2006. The major oil consuming nations were, in order, the USA, China, Japan, Russia, Germany, India, South Korea, Canada, Brazil and Saudi Arabia. Although US consumption has remained static over the past four years, China increased its petroleum consumption by 5.5 percent in 2007. China and India accounted for some 70% of the increase in oil demand during 2006 and 2007, with oil producing countries responsible for much of the balance.

Between 1996 and 2006, USA domestic production reduced from 45% to 33% of demand. Net imports were larger than the combined production of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The US government launched its 20 in 10 initiative to reduce gasoline demand by 20% in 10 years, through improve engine emission standards and the use of ethanol.

The IEA forecasts that oil demand will increase by 10 mbpd to 94.8 mbpd in 2015. Demand for OPEC oil is forecast to increase from current 31 mbpd to 38.8 mbpd in 2015. It is not clear that the additional demand is going to be met through a combination of new sources of conventional oil, gas to liquids, unconventional oil and biofuels.

That's not even the main point, the main point is the marginal barrel of oil extracted from northern Alaska is estimated to cost $80 (eighty) per barrel plus transportation south.

At 50$/b, coal to liquid is already largely profitable.

Precisely my point, MiniTax.

It makes no sense for us to drill at such cost levels. We have to examine cheaper options.

High Seas wrote:

Precisely my point, MiniTax.

It makes no sense for us to drill at such cost levels. We have to examine cheaper options.

MiniTAXE's true point is that your alleged costs for drilling for and transporting ANWR oil are malarkey, and therefore should be ignored.

I too think those costs you allege are malarkey.

Quote:

At 50$/b, coal to liquid is already largely profitable.

And quite pollutive as well. But you guys really don't care too much about that part, do ya?

Cycloptichorn

Okie - the Ghawar oil field took over six years to recover, and may have been irreparably harmed. No animals or plants were involved, so your comment doesn't apply.

Ghawar, for anyone unfamiliar, is the largest oilfield ever found on this planet. It produces 5 million barrels of oil a day.

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Quote:

At 50$/b, coal to liquid is already largely profitable.

And quite pollutive as well. But you guys really don't care too much about that part, do ya?

Cycloptichorn

Your "quite pollutive" accusation is malarkey. If oil ccombustion were actually "quite pollutive" in the USA, life expectancy in the USA would not have increased from below age 60 in the year 1931 to above age 78 in the year 2008.

We obviously care about pollution.

We also care about truth. "But you guys really don't care too much about that part, do ya?"

I certainly don't have your expertise or experience in that HS, but I am an oil patch kid, have a kid who is an engineer in the business, and am acquainted with folks here in town who run petroleum drilling schools all over the world including Saudi Arabia. Their opinion of Ghawar is that it has had an amazing six decade run that is probably coming to an end, but it still has 10-15 years of good production left at current reserve estimates and those estimates have been underestimated numerous times over the years as have reserves in our own Permian Basin where they are still managing to drill and find oil. The folks from the school do say that Ghawar is down from a peak of 5.5 million barrels to a current approximately 4.5 million barrels a day, but that is still substantial.

liquefying the result is a pollutive process; burning the liquid fuel creates further pollution. Not a good solution to move forward into the future.
Cycloptichorn

Foxfyre wrote:

I certainly don't have your expertise or experience in that HS, but I am an oil patch kid, have a kid who is an engineer in the business, and am acquainted with folks here in town who run petroleum drilling schools all over the world including Saudi Arabia. Their opinion of Ghawar is that it has had an amazing six decade run that is probably coming to an end, but it still has 10-15 years of good production left at current reserve estimates and those estimates have been underestimated numerous times over the years as have reserves in our own Permian Basin where they are still managing to drill and find oil. The folks from the school do say that Ghawar is down from a peak of 5.5 million barrels to a current approximately 4.5 million barrels a day, but that is still substantial.

Foxfyre, good numbers and their magnitude are important, otherwise, conclusions would be erronous.
I don't know where you get your numbers for Ghawar but they are wrong.

First, proven reserves for Ghawar are estimated to be 60 to 100 Gb, now. At a rate of 2 Gb/year, that would mean AT LEAST 30 to 50 years of good production, not 10-15 !
But should I remind you that in 1975, the USGS has stated that Ghawar URR (proven+ probable + possible reserves) amounted to 60 Gb and up to now, cumulated production from Ghawar has been ... 65 Gb, that is Ghawar should have been empty, void, zeroed. Yet, its water cut is just around 30% (mean world value is 75%, in France, some wells' water cut is more than 95% and it's still profitable !).

Second, Ghawar is producing 5 Mb/d for years, even peakoilers wouldn't venture to say it's peaking now or in the next 2, 3 years (see for example the peak oil sites theoildrum.com or peakoil.com).

Cycloptichorn wrote:

liquefying the result is a pollutive process; burning the liquid fuel creates further pollution. Not a good solution to move forward into the future.
Cycloptichorn

Come on Cycloptichorn, you don't have the slightest idea of what you're talking about, do you ?

The fact that you don't understand the relationship between modern health care and nutrition, and raised life expectancies, calls in to question your intelligence, Ican. It has little to do with pollution and everything to do with modern medical technology. What more, we aren't talking about burning oil, but the liquefaction of coal.

Coal mining is an inherently pollutive and destructive process; liquefying the result is a pollutive process; burning the liquid fuel creates further pollution. Not a good solution to move forward into the future.

Cycloptichorn

More then you, my friend, who is little more then a troll on this forum.

Yes, burning of fossil fuels creates further pollution.

Cycloptichorn