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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 3 Jun, 2008 01:06 pm
LOL Walter - if we're talking about the selfsame pic, your name is going up right this second as a suspicious character in at least 30 server farms that I know of because there is NO WAY in HELL this pic was taken from the altitude you claim....unless you're using the Hubble telescope's lenses....Just kiddin' Smile
0 Replies
 
McTag
 
  1  
Reply Tue 3 Jun, 2008 01:11 pm
High Seas wrote:

Science can't be said to exist in the absence of....
THE
REPEATABLE
EXPERIMENT



Surely it can. Scientific proof relies on devising and repeating experiments, but scientific theory (we used to call it Natural Philosophy) precedes that, surely.
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 3 Jun, 2008 01:16 pm
Not unless you're into the most abstract Hegelian teleology, McTag - we tend to be practical and results-oriented around here, as you know!
0 Replies
 
miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Tue 3 Jun, 2008 03:34 pm
In astronomy, you do no repeatable experiment, yet it's science by excellence.
Verifiability is another criterion to approach science. That's why climate modellers are not very keen on confronting their prediction to real data, even if it's high time now to show the simulations they made 20 years ago when all this AGW fuss started. Because climate modelling is NOT science.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 3 Jun, 2008 04:25 pm
http://media.townhall.com/Townhall/Car/b/20080603RZ1AP-MarsWarming.jpg
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Tue 3 Jun, 2008 06:03 pm
No it doesn't.

Humans are looking for somwhere to dump their glowing ****. Dumping it on the moon is a bit risky.
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jun, 2008 08:49 am
miniTAX wrote:
In astronomy, you do no repeatable experiment, yet it's science by excellence.
Verifiability is another criterion to approach science. That's why climate modellers are not very keen on confronting their prediction to real data, even if it's high time now to show the simulations they made 20 years ago when all this AGW fuss started. Because climate modelling is NOT science.


Minitax - it's so interesting you should mention that because I'm studying right now the mathematics of gamma ray bursts in relation to a variance-gamma model I'm writing (you may know that's the limiting case of jump-diffusion models) for black-box computer securities trading. Here's some background:



Quote:

http://www.astrophysicsspectator.com/topics/observation/GammaRayBursts.html

In that connection I came across a definition of the difference between physics and astrophysics: "in physics we set up the experiment and try to figure out the laws of nature; in astrophysics we observe the laws and try to figure out how nature set up the experiment".

That wonderful definition resolves the apparent contradiction you picked up - science is and remains the repeatable experiment.
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jun, 2008 08:57 am
P.S. The "anthropogenic global warming" climate models are the laughingstock of the mathematics profession, even after allowing for the inevitable randomness inherent in the processes being modelled. Here's a picture for those (unlike Minitax and a couple of others here) not interested in equations as such:





http://www.claymath.org/millennium/Navier-Stokes_Equations/turbulence.jpg

http://www.claymath.org/millennium/Navier-Stokes_Equations/

Btw, Spendius, if you can solve that problem, as stated by 2 of your countrymen in the 19th century, there's a $1m prize!
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jun, 2008 09:07 am
P.P.S. even after that solution, Spendius, we will only be marginally closer to explaining what the astrophysicists themselves call...:

Quote:
...this cartoonish process sweeps under the rug all of the physics of the interaction between electrons and waves or turbulence. A better understanding of the radiative physics would come from studying the plasma processes that accelerate electrons. Such processes, however, are difficult to simulate....
0 Replies
 
woiyo
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jun, 2008 09:16 am
ELK POINT, S.D. -- Flashing a smile, Joyce Bortscheller briefly hugged Hyperion Energy Center executive Preston Phillips as she greeted him in the backyard of her home here.

Bortscheller, president of the Elk Point City Council, had invited about 250 supporters to an outdoor barbecue Tuesday to await the returns for arguably the most important election in Union County's history. The big crowd didn't leave disappointed.

As midnight approached, they popped the champagne corks, celebrating a hard-fought victory that keeps alive the county's chances of landing the nation's first all-new oil refinery in 32 years.

By a solid 58 percent to 42 percent margin, county voters approved Hyperion's request to rezone 3,292 acres of farm land for a new classification, Energy Center Planned Development.

"What happened tonight, we were not supposed to be able to do," Phillips told a cheering audience. "Development projects like this are supposed to be outright rejected by residents and neighbors. But this project is a testament to our balancing the needs for growth and for protecting the environment."

http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/articles/2008/06/04/news/top/4e608d46402d5adb8625745e00110beb.txt
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jun, 2008 09:27 am
woiyo wrote:
ELK POINT, S.D. -- Flashing a smile, Joyce Bortscheller briefly hugged Hyperion Energy Center executive Preston Phillips as she greeted him in the backyard of her home here.

Bortscheller, president of the Elk Point City Council, had invited about 250 supporters to an outdoor barbecue Tuesday to await the returns for arguably the most important election in Union County's history. The big crowd didn't leave disappointed.

As midnight approached, they popped the champagne corks, celebrating a hard-fought victory that keeps alive the county's chances of landing the nation's first all-new oil refinery in 32 years.

By a solid 58 percent to 42 percent margin, county voters approved Hyperion's request to rezone 3,292 acres of farm land for a new classification, Energy Center Planned Development.

"What happened tonight, we were not supposed to be able to do," Phillips told a cheering audience. "Development projects like this are supposed to be outright rejected by residents and neighbors. But this project is a testament to our balancing the needs for growth and for protecting the environment."

http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/articles/2008/06/04/news/top/4e608d46402d5adb8625745e00110beb.txt


Great news. The opponents only have to look to Borger TX, population 14,000 in the central Texas Panhandle to know what that refinery can mean for their area. Borger is home to a large Conoco Phillips refinery that makes and formulates various vehicle fuels and is also heavily invested in alternate energy refining. It is the largest employer in the area, provides high paying jobs with great benefits, and the air is clean, good, well financed schools, and the town is well kept and prosperous. No pollution is allowed.

It can happen if people just look at what is possible instead of buying into environmental religionist hype.
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jun, 2008 09:29 am
McTag wrote:
High Seas wrote:

Science can't be said to exist in the absence of....
THE
REPEATABLE
EXPERIMENT



Surely it can. Scientific proof relies on devising and repeating experiments, but scientific theory (we used to call it Natural Philosophy) precedes that, surely.


You conflated the 2 concepts also mentioned by Minitax, McTag: scientific proof exists whether nature set up the experiments or we did.

Btw, I should add "we" isn't limited to humans: all human researchers working with dolphins know that the dolphins start experimenting with our auditory range when talking to us and stick to the frequencies they discover we can hear unless they're talking to other dolphins; then they switch to their usual ultra-high frequencies. Dogs, as well, also warn us if any sound comes up in a range they know we can't hear, like the low-frequency rumble of an earthquake.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jun, 2008 10:50 am
THE DISSENTS OF THE SCIENTIFIC DISSENTERS

Quote:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report

121+22=143.

A group of German scientists of "several scientific disciplines" formed a new group in 2007 to declare themselves climate change skeptics. The group of scientists issued a proclamation on September 15, 2007 titled "The Climate Manifest of Heiligenroth." The group, which included prominent scientist Ernst-George Beck who authored a groundbreaking February 2007 paper, entitled "180 Years of Atmospheric C02 Analysis by Chemical Methods," (LINK) publicly issued six basic points of skepticism about man-made global warming. They stated that their "motivation was to initiate processes against daily campaigns of media and politics concerning climate." Their six points are: 1) "There is not proven influence on climate by man made emission of CO2; 2) Scenarios on future climate change derived from computer models are speculative and contradicted by climate history; 3) There has been climate change in all times of Earth history with alternating cold and warm phases; 4) The trace gas CO2 dos not pollute the atmosphere, CO2 is an essential resource for plant growth and therefore a precondition for life on Earth; 5) We are committing ourselves to an effective preservation of our environment and support arrangements to prevent unnecessary stress on eco systems; and 6) We strongly warn against taking action using imminent climate catastrophe as a vehicle which will not be beneficial for our environment and will cause economic damage." The declaration was signed by the following scientists: Biologist Ernst-Georg Beck; Engineer and energy expert Paul Bossert; Biologist Branford Helgo; Hydro biologist Edgar Gardeners; Agricultural scientist Dr. Rainer Six; Engineer Heinze Thieme. Physics Professor Hubert Becker; Rikard Bergsten Master of Science in Physics and Computer Engineering; Professor of physics Dr. Ludecke Horst-Joachim; Peter Martin, Professor of Engineering; Engineer Martin Bock; Chemical and environmental engineer Donald Clauson; Physicist Dr. Theo Eichten; Biochemist Flick Hendrikje; Agricultural scientist Dr. Glatzle Albrecht; Chemist Dr. Hauck Guenther; Professor of environmental and climate physics Dr. Detlef Hebert; Astrophysicist Dr Peter Heller; Chemist Dr. Albert Krause; Forestry scientist Dr. Christoph Leinb: Chemist Dr. Hans Penner; Mathematician Dr. Paul Matthews; Chemist Dr. Wuntke Knut; Meteorologist Klaus-pulse Eckart. Others who signed the declaration included: Dr. Herbert Backhaus; Dieter Ber; Gunter Ederer; Ferdinand Furst zu Hohenlohe-Bartenstein; Dieter Kramer; Uwe Tempel; Brigitte Bossert; Nikolaus Lentz; Werner Vermess Eisenkopf; Wilfried Heck; Heinz Hofman; Rainer Hoffman; and Werner Eisenkopf.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jun, 2008 11:06 am
Meanwhile, while checking out Ican's latest group of new skeptics cited, I ran across this piece emphasizing that this refreshing new snowball is also gaining momentum elsewhere in environmentally conscious Europe:

Proliferation of Climate Scepticism in Europe
By Hans H.J. Labohm PhD: 05 Nov 2007

Climate scepticism has now gained a firm foothold in various European
countries.


In Denmark Bjørn Lomborg stands out as the single most important
sceptical environmental­ist, defying the political correctness which
is such a characteristic feature of his home country, as well as other
Nordic countries. But wait! Bjørn Lomborg is not a genuine climate
sceptic. Real climate sceptics admire his courage, his scientific
rigour and debating skills, but beg to disagree with him on the
fundamentals of climate science. Lomborg acknowledges that there is
such a thing as man-made global warming, which is quite in line with
the mantra of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). He
'only' challenges the cost benefit relationships of the policy meas­
ures, which have been proposed to do something about it. Massive
expenditures (often euphemistically called 'investments') in exchange
for undetectable returns. Real climate sceptics do not accept the man-
made global warming hypothesis. They are of the opinion that the human
contribution to global warming over the last century or so is at most
insignificant. But, of course, they are happy with the arguments
advanced by Bjørn Lomborg to bolster their case against climate
hysteria.


In Germany EIKE (Europäisches Institut für Klima und Energie, Jena:
http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/) has been established - still in its
infancy, but nevertheless. Moreover, a group of German climate
sceptics has written something which could be called a consensus among
many climate sceptics: Climate Manifest of Heiligenroth (See:
http://www.klimamanifest-von-heiligenroth.de/klimaman-e.html).
Furthermore there are many climate sceptical websites in Germany. For
those who like visual thrills and possess a basic command of the
German language, Konrad Fischer's website might be fun: 'Videos and
films concerning the greenhouse swindle and climate terror' (http://
www.konrad-fischer-info.de/7video.htm)


But the AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming) belief is still
overwhelming in Germany. In newspapers and on TV, Stefan Rahmstorf,
the German climate Torquemada, -- comparable to Al Gore in the US,
George Monbiot in the UK and David Suzuki in Canada -- are constantly
attacking critics of the AGW hypothesis. Contrary to good scientific
practice, he lavishly lards his interventions with ad hominem attacks
and insinuations that his opponents lack qualifications and/or are
being paid by industry. Although decades of pro AGW indoctrination has
left its mark on the German psyche, even true believers are becoming
fed up with him.


In Sweden, despite its high standards of political correctness, there
is a very vocal group of climate sceptics, which regularly publish in
'Elbranchen'. In September 2006 they organised a seminar: 'Global
Warming - Scientific Controversies in Climate Variability'. This
meeting was hosted by the Royal Technical High School in Stockholm and
chaired by its rector, Peter Stilbs (See: http://gamma.physchem.kth.se/~climate/).
Even Swedish TV has aired a debate on the issue. For those who have
some command of the Scandinavian languages, see: http://webbtv.axess.se/index.aspx?id=229:
Veckans Debatt: Global uppvärming: Vad säger vetenskapen?


In Italy the Bruno Leoni Institute has espoused climate scepticism
(http://www.brunoleoni.it/). In Spain, the foundation Rafael del Pino
has paid attention to climate scepticism in the past, but because of
social and political pressure it has felt forced to keep a low profile
on this issue over the last few years. (http://www.libertaddigital.com/
index.php?action=desaopi&cpn=25151) In the French-speaking part of
Europe, individual scientists such as as Marcel Leroux could be
mentioned. Moreover, the Molinari Institute has joined the cause of
climate scepticism (http://www.institutmolinari.org/index.htm). In the
Czech Republic, President Vaclav Havel is single-handedly attempting
to instil some common sense into public opinion. In Austria the Hayek
Institute carries the torch (http://www.hayek-institut.at/english/1183/
termine/article/hayek/2035/), while Estonia is represented by Olavi
Kärner (http://www.aai.ee/~olavi/).


In my own country, the Netherlands, the situation has markedly
improved. In line with the tradition of consensus-seeking, it has been
possible to establish something close to a real dialogue between AGW
adherents and the climate sceptics. Personally, I have even been
invited by the Nether­lands Royal Meteorological Institute (KNMI) to
become expert reviewer of the IPCC. As such, I have submitted many
fundamental criticisms on the draft texts of the Fourth Assessment Re­
port of the Panel (AR4). What happened to my comments? To be honest, I
have not the faintest idea. Most probably, nothing at all.


Nevertheless, in my capacity as expert reviewer of the IPCC, I have
also received (a tiny) part of the Nobel price, which has been awarded
to Al Gore and the IPCC (yes, thanks for your congratulations). Should
I be grateful? I don't think so. Both 'An Inconvenient Truth' and the
latest IPCC report labour under cherry-picking, spindoctoring and
scare-mongering (Al Gore's movie more than the IPCC reports). Awarding
the Nobel price for such flawed science is a disgrace. But it should
be recalled that the Nobel Prize for Peace is being awarded by a group
of (five) Norwegian politicians and not by the Swedish Academy of
Science, which is always scrupulously investigating the merits of the
candidates. The Norwegians are piggybacking on the reputation of the
Nobel prizes for science and literature. The method of electing the
winner of the Peace prize ensures a political outcome reflecting the
current strength of Norwegian political parties. Four out of five
members of the parliamentary committee that selected Gore are former
cabinet members. The fifth, Mjoes, was president of the University of
Tromso. So the Democrat Gore owes his prize to a constellation of
Progressives, Social and Christian Democrats and Green socialists.
Little wonder Francis Sejersted, past chairman of the committee,
admits: 'Awarding a peace prize is, to put it bluntly, a political
act.'


Russian scientists are criticising very openly the AGW hypothesis.
They do it with a frankness which - in this particular field - is
still rare in the 'free world'. Usually scientists shroud their
statements in clouds of caveats. Even the IPCC follows this tradition
to a certain extent. But Russian climatologists do not. They simply
state that a new little ice age is imminent. Not so long ago it was
astronomer Khabibullo Abdusamatov of the Pulkovo Astronomical
Observatory in St. Petersburg, who declared that the Earth will
experience a 'mini Ice Age' in the middle of this century, caused by
low solar activity. Now it is the climatologist Olech Sorochtin,
member of the Russian Academy of Physical Science, who joins him. His
message was prominently disseminated by the Russian press agency
Novosti, which in the period of the Cold War was generally considered
to be a mouthpiece of the Kremlin. (http://de.rian.ru/analysis/
20071009/83073114.html). Therefore, it is perhaps not too far-fetched
to speculate that this might be a warning signal that the Russians
will drop out of Kyoto when its first phase expires in 2012.


But Britannia rules the waves. Stewart Dimmock, a Kent lorry driver
and school governor, took the government to court for sending copies
of Gore's film to schools. He was backed by a group of campaigners,
including Viscount Monckton, a former adviser to Mrs Thatcher. They
won a legal victory against 'An Inconvenient Truth'. Mr Justice Burton
ruled that the movie contained at least nine scientific errors and
said ministers must send new guidance to teachers before it was
screened. 'That ruling was a fantastic victory,' said Monckton. 'What
we want to do now is send schools material reflecting an alternative
point of view so that pupils can make their own minds up.' Monckton
has also won support from the maker of 'The Great Global Warming
Swindle'. Martin Durkin, managing director of WAG TV, which produced
the documentary, said he would be delighted for his film to go to
schools. I have become a proselytiser against the so-called consensus
on climate change ... people can decide for themselves,' he said.


And what about our kids? Well, they have survived the story of Santa
Claus without any visible scars. Wouldn't they survive the nonsense of
man-made global warming as well?


Hans Labohm is an independent economist. Together with Dick Thoenes
and Simon Rozendaal, he is co-author of 'Man-Made Global Warming:
Unravelling a Dogma'.
LINK
0 Replies
 
miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jun, 2008 03:43 pm
In the meantime, temperatures continue to plunge: for may 2008, -0.18°C lower than the 30 year mean. And here, not even a massive eruption the likes of Pinatubo or el Chichon to save the AGWer's day.
God must have some sense of humor.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/uah
http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/103/76495452ai4.png
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jun, 2008 04:08 pm
the trend is still up.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jun, 2008 04:15 pm
That was so nice of you to pick only one of the 4 data sets Minitax..

You couldn't possible being selective with your data? Could you?

all 4 data sets
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jun, 2008 04:16 pm
Steve 41oo wrote:
the trend is still up.


On a least-squares regression? Since 1980?

Always nice to see you, Steve, but have you just returned from the pub Smile
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jun, 2008 04:37 pm
miniTAX wrote:
In the meantime, temperatures continue to plunge: for may 2008, -0.18°C lower than the 30 year mean. And here, not even a massive eruption the likes of Pinatubo or el Chichon to save the AGWer's day.
God must have some sense of humor.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/uah
http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/103/76495452ai4.png

Where the hell are those damn sun spots when you need 'em?
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jun, 2008 04:39 pm
parados wrote:
That was so nice of you to pick only one of the 4 data sets Minitax..

You couldn't possible being selective with your data? Could you?

...



Which data set or sets do you prefer?
0 Replies
 
 

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