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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 12:47 pm
The facts are that there are a significant (and growing ) number of climate scientists who poo poo the cause and effect relationship of CO2 and warming. Its been shown that the opposite is tru, CO2 is increasing because its warming and CO2 is being freed from sediment, muskeg, permafrost etc.

As far as the fact that weve got at least 4 times in history that the NW passage was fully open doesnt seem to slow down the logic of those that wish to buy into this . I can see that, facts being what they are, we will soon be spinning them to say what our side wishes to extrapolate.

I dont know many geologists who are Global Warming fans. Our craft makes us more sensitive to the changes that we can see from the fossil record and ice cores etc. The sensitivity of cumulative climate measurement is enough to convince many that the issue of sea level rise has been in play since about 1840 just as the Little Ice AGe was terminating(and the little Ice AGe is pretty much a settled science issue)

Global Warming isnt the issue to me, its that man induced Global Warming is just muddle headed thinking . I think the pendulum is swinging back to some degree of data driven science.(cf Robinson.A.B. , N. E. Robinson ,and W. Soon 2007. Environmental EFfects of ATmospheric CArbon Dioxide. Journal American Physicians and Surgeons v 12 p79-90.)
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 02:02 pm
farmerman wrote:
I dont know many geologists who are Global Warming fans.



Actually, I even don't many 'normal' people who are fans of - at least not longer than a heat period of some weeks :wink:


But seriously, a quick google research over the various national eological society websites gives a different view than it might be with geologists inside the USA.


And I have some doubts that those outsde the USA are less qualified, have no access to data etc.


Like in any science, some interpret data that way, others differently.
And some interpretations are more convinceable, others less.
0 Replies
 
username
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 03:36 pm
Farmer, again, I suggest you look at conditions when Amundsen went thru the Passage, and again when the St. Roch I went thru around WWII (took them two years to make it thru--they spent two winters frozen in the ice), versus when the St. Roch !! went thru in 2000 (ice-free, after thirty years of warming) and the present and projected future weather. It's a case of very small boats with hullspurpose-built for Arctic waters and survival in ice packs still having a hard time, versus eggshell-like 600 foot tankers having an easy passage. It's really hard to argue that the Arctic isn't changing. And the most likely driver is anthropogenic CO2.
0 Replies
 
username
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 03:52 pm
"400 climate scientists", hah. 48 TV weathermen (as in "I am not a climate scientist, but I play one on television"), 20 economists (as in "I know all about climate--I wear my rubbers when it rains"), 78 or so with no discernible expertise or experience in any relevant science. Cross off a third of them right there.

But on the other hand, many of the world's prominent Academies of Science have lined up behind the IPCC. The IPCC, incidentally, has 1200 authors and over 2500 scientific expert reviewers, plus 619 actual scientists who signed the SCIENCE section of the FAR (that's the SCIENCE part, not the impact section, the mitigation section, or the recommendations for policymakers section), and the thousands of scientists in the world's scientific bodies have this to say (from Wikipedia)

""

A joint statement issued by the Australian Academy of Sciences, Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts, Brazilian Academy of Sciences, Royal Society of Canada, Caribbean Academy of Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, French Academy of Sciences, German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina, Indian National Science Academy, Indonesian Academy of Sciences, Royal Irish Academy, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy), Academy of Sciences Malaysia, Academy Council of the Royal Society of New Zealand, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, and Royal Society (UK) said:

The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) represents the consensus of the international scientific community on climate change science. We recognise IPCC as the world's most reliable source of information on climate change and its causes, and we endorse its method of achieving this consensus. Despite increasing consensus on the science underpinning predictions of global climate change, doubts have been expressed recently about the need to mitigate the risks posed by global climate change. We do not consider such doubts justified.[

I think they've got Inhofe's phony "400" faroutnumbered.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 04:14 pm
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb
As of December 20, 2007, over 400 prominent scientists--not a minority of those scientists who have published their views on global warming--from more than two dozen countries voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.

THE DISSENTS OF THE SCIENTIFIC DISSENTERS
Quote:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report

19.
Solar physicists Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev, of the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the Siberian Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believe the climate is driven by the sun and predict global cooling will soon occur. The two scientists are so convinced that global temperatures will cool within the next decade they have placed a $10,000 wager with a UK scientist to prove their certainty. The criteria for the $10,000 bet will be to "compare global temperatures between 1998 and 2003 with those between 2012 and 2017. The loser will pay up in 2018," according to an April 16, 2007 article in Live Science. (LINK) Bashkirtsev and Mashnich have questioned the view that the "anthropogenic impact" is driving Earth's climate. "None of the investigations dealing with the anthropogenic impact on climate convincingly argues for such an impact," the two scientists noted in 2003. Bashkirtsev and Mashnich believe the evidence of solar impacts on the climate "leave little room for the anthropogenic impact on the Earth's climate." They believe that "solar variations naturally explain global cooling observed in 1950-1970, which cannot be understood from the standpoint of the greenhouse effect, since CO2 was intensely released into the atmosphere in this period."
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 04:36 pm
username-
Quote:
It's really hard to argue that the Arctic isn't changing. And the most likely driver is anthropogenic CO2.


I like the way you jump from conclusion 1 and connect it with conclusion 2.THere is NO data to support that statement. Al Gore made a glaring mistatement on that point and many paleoclimatologists have been shoving that back at him. Temperature changes have preceded CO2 changes by 800 or more years.

I never said that global warming was NOT occuring. We are on a warm cycle after the last "Little Ice Age" . However, the issues that were used to define it just arent supported by data.

1Polar Bears are NOT dying, they are increasing

2. The sea Ice measurements are recent artifacts of sat imagery. We only have 30 years of record and You cannot make trend surfaces from this short a period, especially when , just prior to the record initiation, there were at least 3 incidences of ice thinning and ice free conditions in the NW passage. Thats undeniable. You may wish to spin that any way you want, but history is on my side .
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 04:58 pm
Username writes
Quote:
The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) represents the consensus of the international scientific community on climate change science. We recognise IPCC as the world's most reliable source of information on climate change and its causes, and we endorse its method of achieving this consensus. Despite increasing consensus on the science underpinning predictions of global climate change, doubts have been expressed recently about the need to mitigate the risks posed by global climate change. We do not consider such doubts justified.[

I think they've got Inhofe's phony "400" faroutnumbered.


In rebuttal:

IPCC Scientists Challenge Al Gore''s View of Global Warming Consensus
By Noel Sheppard
June 29, 2007

The chinks in the armor that is a supposed scientific consensus regarding man''s role in global warming continued to grow this week when it was identified that many of the folks involved in the most recent report from the United Nations'' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were not in agreement with the study''s findings.

Didn't hear about this? Well, how could you? Nobody reported it!
In fact, what you also didn't hear or read due to the media's universal eschewing of this information was that many of the views expressed in the IPCC''s report go quite contrary to assertions regularly being made by the very press outlets not covering this new revelation and the Global Warmingist-in-Chief, soon-to-be-Dr. Al Gore.

Think maybe that's why it's not being reported?

Regardless of the answer, the Heartland Institute, a non-profit social and economic think tank, issued the following press release concerning this matter Friday (emphasis added throughout):

On June 28, in an historic move the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has released the expert review comments and responses to its latest assessment of the science of climate change. The IPCC report is the primary source of data for Al Gore's movie and book titled "An Inconvenient Truth."

Many of the comments by the reviewers are strongly critical of claims contained in the final report, and they are directly at odds with the so-called "scientific consensus" touted by Gore and others calling for immediate government action. For example, the following comment by Eric Steig appears in Second Order Draft Comments, Chapter 6; section 6-42:

In general, the certainty with which this chapter presents our understanding of abrupt climate change is overstated. There is confusion between hypothesis and evidence throughout the chapter, and a great deal of confusion on the differences between an abrupt "climate change" and possible, hypothetical causes of such climate changes.

"It is now abundantly clear why Al Gore will not accept our debate challenge. The supposed scientific consensus on global warming is pure fiction. Hopefully, the public release of comments and responses will enable the debate over global warming to turn to facts and less fiction," stated Joseph Bast, president of The Heartland Institute, a national nonprofit think tank based in Chicago.

The Heartland Institute has been running ads in national newspapers calling on Al Gore to debate Lord Christopher Monckton, a prominent global warming "skeptic." Starting today, the institute says it is now including Dennis Avery, an economist and coauthor of a book on global warming that is on the New York Times nonfiction best seller list, who Gore has also refused to debate.

Gore has also not responded to a debate challenge from Wharton Business School Professor Scott Armstrong, or a similar challenge from Czech President Vaclav Klaus.

Makes one wonder how the media can continue to support a man who isn''t willing to debate anyone concerning this matter. Furthermore, given the press focus on the IPCC any time it releases a new report, one also has to question why this new information which actually came out on Wednesday went totally ignored.

In fact, according to LexisNexis and Google News searches, not one American press outlet covered this new revelation out of the IPCC. And, though the Heartland Institute's press release was first published by the U.S. Newswire at 5:15 PM EST Thursday, nobody reported it either.

It appears that information from the IPCC is only newsworthy when it supports anthropogenic global warming theories. How disgraceful.
For those interested, the comments of IPCC scientists are available in a rather lengthy PDF document HEREIPCC must come clean on real numbers of scientist supporters
The UN Climate Change Numbers Hoax

Of the comments received from the 62 reviewers of this critical chapter, almost 60% of them were rejected by IPCC editors. And of the 62 expert reviewers of this chapter, 55 had serious vested interest, leaving only seven expert reviewers who appear impartial.

Two of these seven were contacted by NRSP for the purposes of this article - Dr. Vincent Gray of New Zealand and Dr. Ross McKitrick of the University of Guelph, Canada. Concerning the ""Greenhouse gas forcing ……"" statement above, Professor McKitrick explained ""A categorical summary statement like this is not supported by the evidence in the IPCC WG I report. Evidence shown in the report suggests that other factors play a major role in climate change, and the specific effects expected from greenhouse gases have not been observed.""


Dr. Gray labeled the WG I statement as ""Typical IPCC doubletalk"" asserting ""The text of the IPCC report shows that this is decided by a guess from persons with a conflict of interest, not from a tested model.""

Determining the level of support expressed by reviewers'' comments is subjective but a slightly generous evaluation indicates that just five reviewers endorsed the crucial ninth chapter. Four had vested interests and the other made only a single comment for the entire 11-chapter report. The claim that 2,500 independent scientist reviewers agreed with this, the most important statement of the UN climate reports released this year, or any other statement in the UN climate reports, is nonsense.

""The IPCC owe it to the world to explain who among their expert reviewers actually agree with their conclusions and who don''t,"" says Natural Resources Stewardship Project Chair climatologist Dr. Timothy Ball. ""Otherwise, their credibility, and the public''s trust of science in general, will be even further eroded.""

That the IPCC have let this deception continue for so long is a disgrace. Secretary General Ban Kai-Moon must instruct the UN climate body to either completely revise their operating procedures, welcoming dissenting input from scientist reviewers and indicating if reviewers have vested interests, or close the agency down completely. Until then, their conclusions, and any reached at the Bali conference based on IPCC conclusions, should be ignored entirely as politically skewed and dishonest.

John McLean is climate data analyst based in Melbourne, Australia. Tom Harris is the Ottawa-based Executive Director of the Natural Resources Stewardship Project (nrsp.com).
http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/968
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 07:31 pm
parados wrote:
ican711nm wrote:
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb
As of December 20, 2007, over 400 prominent scientists--not a minority of those scientists who have published their views on global warming--from more than two dozen countries voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.


400 isn't a minority of those publishing on global warming?

Let's see.. from 2003-2007 there were 538 papers published on climate change. Most were written by 2-3 scientists. Even assuming an average of 2 per paper that means that the 400 is NOT a majority of published scientists.
...

Let's assume that scientists published 6500 views in the form of papers or articles or comments on the causes of the alleged 1975 to 2005 increases in average global temperatures.

Let's assume that there were an average of 10 such published views per scientist.

Then 6500/10 = 650 different such scientists.

Let's assume 400 of them dissented with the views published by UN IPCC.

Then:
650 - 400 = 250 assented.



ASS U ME
0 Replies
 
miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Apr, 2008 06:39 am
Hi all,
A bbc's report on catastrophic Global Warming, with the usual suspects: accelerated warming, sea rising, more storminess, drought, flood, famines...
Accept it was made... in 1990!
Interviews with some IPCC's lead authors (eg Schneider) are priceless.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5949034802461518010
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Apr, 2008 09:07 am
It's on the BBC-website as well.

(I'm glad that my 1990 publications and reports aren't to be found online. :wink: )
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Apr, 2008 09:55 am
And just think, in 10 years we will be able to read MiniTax, okie and ican's comments and compare them to what really happened.


That ought to be good for a laugh.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Apr, 2008 10:39 am
parados wrote:
And just think, in 10 years we will be able to read MiniTax, okie and ican's comments and compare them to what really happened.


That ought to be good for a laugh.

That will be a good I told you so laugh for us, but you'll be sad.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Apr, 2008 11:23 am
so 1000 pages. How much global warming is that?

cycled 53 miles today, how much carbon is that?
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Apr, 2008 11:37 am
Foxfyre wrote:
Laughing

Well you have to understand, Lash, that our work here is still not finished. Smile

Good to see you though. I've missed you.

Thanks, Fox. Nice to see you, too!
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Apr, 2008 11:39 am
ican711nm wrote:
parados wrote:
And just think, in 10 years we will be able to read MiniTax, okie and ican's comments and compare them to what really happened.


That ought to be good for a laugh.

That will be a good I told you so laugh for us, but you'll be sad.


ican,

care to make the same bet those 2 Russians did?
Quote:

The criteria for the $10,000 bet will be to "compare global temperatures between 1998 and 2003 with those between 2012 and 2017.


$10,000 - simple and easy. Payable in 10 years.

Heck.. that way you won't just have to laugh. You can make some money on your convictions.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Apr, 2008 01:18 pm
parados wrote:
ican711nm wrote:
parados wrote:
And just think, in 10 years we will be able to read MiniTax, okie and ican's comments and compare them to what really happened.


That ought to be good for a laugh.

That will be a good I told you so laugh for us, but you'll be sad.


ican,

care to make the same bet those 2 Russians did?
Quote:

The criteria for the $10,000 bet will be to "compare global temperatures between 1998 and 2003 with those between 2012 and 2017.


$10,000 - simple and easy. Payable in 10 years.

Heck.. that way you won't just have to laugh. You can make some money on your convictions.

I'd feel too guilty taking your money, kid.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Apr, 2008 01:23 pm
Steve 41oo wrote:
so 1000 pages. How much global warming is that?

cycled 53 miles today, how much carbon is that?

Not to worry! All that CO2 will eventually end up in plants and oceans.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Apr, 2008 01:25 pm
ican711nm wrote:
parados wrote:
ican711nm wrote:
parados wrote:
And just think, in 10 years we will be able to read MiniTax, okie and ican's comments and compare them to what really happened.


That ought to be good for a laugh.

That will be a good I told you so laugh for us, but you'll be sad.


ican,

care to make the same bet those 2 Russians did?
Quote:

The criteria for the $10,000 bet will be to "compare global temperatures between 1998 and 2003 with those between 2012 and 2017.


$10,000 - simple and easy. Payable in 10 years.

Heck.. that way you won't just have to laugh. You can make some money on your convictions.

I'd feel too guilty taking your money, kid.


If you think it's easy money, then take it. I am offering it to you.


Somehow, I knew you wouldn't put your money where you mouth is.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Apr, 2008 01:34 pm
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb
As of December 20, 2007, over 400 prominent scientists--not a minority of those scientists who have published their views on global warming--from more than two dozen countries voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.

THE DISSENTS OF THE SCIENTIFIC DISSENTERS
Quote:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report

20.
Physics Professor Emeritus Dr. Howard Hayden of the University of Connecticut and author of "The Solar Fraud: Why Solar Energy Won't Run the World," debunked fears of a man-made climate disaster during a presentation in April. "You think SUVs are the cause of glaciers shrinking? I don't think so," Hayden, who retired after 32 years as a professor, said, according to an April 25, 2007 article in Maine Today. "Don't believe what you hear out of Hollywood and Washington, D.C.," Hayden said. According to the article, Hayden argued that "climate history proves that Gore has the relationship between carbon dioxide concentration and global warming backwards. A higher concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, he said, does not cause the Earth to be warmer. Instead," he said, "a warmer Earth causes the higher carbon dioxide levels." Hayden explained, "The sun heats up the Earth and the oceans warm up and atmospheric carbon dioxide rises." According to the article, Hayden "said humans' contribution to global carbon dioxide levels is virtually negligible." Hayden is also the editor of a monthly newsletter called "The Energy Advocate."
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Apr, 2008 02:30 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:
It's on the BBC-website as well.

(I'm glad that my 1990 publications and reports aren't to be found online. :wink: )

Walter, do I sense increased doubt by you in regard to the global warmers agenda? You don't seem to be quite as engaged lately in defending the dire conclusions and projections of the pro-global warming crowd. You do strike me as being somewhat fair minded, and if evidence begins to convince you the other way, I think you would be man enough to admit it.
0 Replies
 
 

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