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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 11 Dec, 2007 06:47 pm
Foxfyre wrote:

For instance, some of us here noticed a wide diversity of temperatures among the stations reporting on the local weatherunderground site. As the relatively short distances between sone stations made broad temperature flucuations implausible, one of our local radio station guys set out to check it out. He found recording instruments placed in the sun, placed in almost fully enclosed areas, placed near air conditioning compressors, placed near clothes dryer vents. This of course would distort the true readings.
Of course we wouldn't want to consider the fact that any Tom Dick or Henry can post temperature readings to a weatherunderground site but official temperature readings have standards of where the thermometer can be placed and how it is read. Those standards have NOT changed.

Quote:

The discussion then moved to the fact that the United States has the most temperature reporting stations than anywhere else in the world, and at least one of the longest uninterrupted history of temperature recordings. Yet how much has the steadily increasing urbanization of the USA affected the temperature records in any given area? And how much have variables in the USA affected the overall conclusions re global warming?
Good questions. Do you have answers or only speculation without facts?


It seems others have answered about the rest of your post.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 11 Dec, 2007 06:49 pm
Foxfyre wrote:

The distinction is, of course, that urbanization absolutely changes the dynamics of average temperature in any area. It will always be at least a degree or two, or maybe a lot cooler in the middle of an alfalfa field than it will be in the middle of a large paved parking lot on any summer day. A plowed field will be warmer than one covered in native grasses and wild flowers.
Except offical temperature readings are not taken in alfalfa fields or parking lots. You might as well be arguing that people are putting the official thermometers in ovens. It is NOT happening.

Quote:

If no allowance is made for the changing land mass use, could it be possible that humans are not significantly affecting the climate, but rather urbanization is changing the immediate average temperature where the measuring equipment is located?
Get back to us when you actually look at the requirements for official temperature readings.
0 Replies
 
cjhsa
 
  1  
Reply Tue 11 Dec, 2007 06:56 pm
Even the pope hates "global warming" alarmists.

God isn't far behind.
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Tue 11 Dec, 2007 07:24 pm
Meanwhile, out in Bali, far from the ice sheets that lie over most of the US according to our news, it is late afternoon and the meetings have finished and the handouts handed out to the News crews who have been waiting for them by the swimming pool since lunchtime, and the delegates and the circus surrounding them have repaired to their luxury hotels for a spruce up in order to be ready to enjoy the local sights and witness the local traditions at first hand and diffuse currency notes entropically.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Tue 11 Dec, 2007 07:36 pm
cjhsa wrote:
Even the pope hates "global warming" alarmists.

God isn't far behind.


When you mention the Pope, he is sullied. Peeg dog.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 11 Dec, 2007 07:49 pm
parados wrote:
Foxfyre wrote:

For instance, some of us here noticed a wide diversity of temperatures among the stations reporting on the local weatherunderground site. As the relatively short distances between sone stations made broad temperature flucuations implausible, one of our local radio station guys set out to check it out. He found recording instruments placed in the sun, placed in almost fully enclosed areas, placed near air conditioning compressors, placed near clothes dryer vents. This of course would distort the true readings.
Of course we wouldn't want to consider the fact that any Tom Dick or Henry can post temperature readings to a weatherunderground site but official temperature readings have standards of where the thermometer can be placed and how it is read. Those standards have NOT changed.


I didn't suggest that the Weatherunderground stuff had any bearing on it other than the wide differences produced by the stations was what triggered the question in my mind.

But are you saying that weather monitoring equipment that has been gathering temperature at a certain GPS coordinate for decades will be moved if the area around that station is plowed or paved or flooded or, after years in the wild shrubbery finds itself in the middle of a subdivision? Or have the weather gatherers continued to collect the data despite the changing conditions around that station?

I think that is a reasonable question to ask.

Quote:
Quote:

The discussion then moved to the fact that the United States has the most temperature reporting stations than anywhere else in the world, and at least one of the longest uninterrupted history of temperature recordings. Yet how much has the steadily increasing urbanization of the USA affected the temperature records in any given area? And how much have variables in the USA affected the overall conclusions re global warming?
Good questions. Do you have answers or only speculation without facts?]


What facts are necessary to have questions? I thought I was fairly clear in how the question came up and, based on the article that went with it, it was clear, at least to me, that I haven't been the only one to whom this has occurred. Do you have problem with that for some reason?


Quote:
It seems others have answered about the rest of your post.

If they have, I haven't seen the answers.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 11 Dec, 2007 08:05 pm
Quote:

If they have, I haven't seen the answers.



Only because you have blinded yourself to them.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 11 Dec, 2007 08:19 pm
parados wrote:
Foxfyre wrote:

The distinction is, of course, that urbanization absolutely changes the dynamics of average temperature in any area. It will always be at least a degree or two, or maybe a lot cooler in the middle of an alfalfa field than it will be in the middle of a large paved parking lot on any summer day. A plowed field will be warmer than one covered in native grasses and wild flowers.
Except offical temperature readings are not taken in alfalfa fields or parking lots. You might as well be arguing that people are putting the official thermometers in ovens. It is NOT happening.

Quote:

If no allowance is made for the changing land mass use, could it be possible that humans are not significantly affecting the climate, but rather urbanization is changing the immediate average temperature where the measuring equipment is located?
Get back to us when you actually look at the requirements for official temperature readings.


Well I tried. I went to all the most popular pro-AGW sites to see if I could find how measurements are taken. No luck. Seems like none of those folks are posting any standards or even methods for how the global temperature is taken.

I did find these sites, but they probably won't be acceptable to the pro-AGW group:

http://www.john-daly.com/ges/surftmp/surftemp.htm

http://www.dosits.org/people/resrchxp/2.htm

http://www.colutron.com/download_files/global_warming.pdf

http://www.open2.net/sciencetechnologynature/worldaroundus/taking_temperature.html

http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/warner-todd-huston/2007/10/01/weather-stations-giving-bad-global-warming-data-msm-mia
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 11 Dec, 2007 09:01 pm
ican711nm wrote:
parados wrote:

...
ican711nm wrote:

If no additional CO2 were to be inserted into the atmosphere, then almost all of it currently in the atmosphere would eventually mix with water vapor and precipitate into surface water.


... Henry's law is one of diminishing returns. As you reduce the amount of CO2 then Henry's law says that water will hold less and less CO2. ... precipitation becomes surface water and the water MUST be evaporated to return to the atmosphere. ...


inserted by ican: then

Your statement is true, but it does not contradict my supposition. Had you added that there is no way that evaporated surface water would not contain at least some CO2, I would have agreed with you about that too.

Evaporated surface water can NOT contain CO2. Gases do NOT contain other gases.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 11 Dec, 2007 09:43 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
parados wrote:
Foxfyre wrote:

The distinction is, of course, that urbanization absolutely changes the dynamics of average temperature in any area. It will always be at least a degree or two, or maybe a lot cooler in the middle of an alfalfa field than it will be in the middle of a large paved parking lot on any summer day. A plowed field will be warmer than one covered in native grasses and wild flowers.
Except offical temperature readings are not taken in alfalfa fields or parking lots. You might as well be arguing that people are putting the official thermometers in ovens. It is NOT happening.

Quote:

If no allowance is made for the changing land mass use, could it be possible that humans are not significantly affecting the climate, but rather urbanization is changing the immediate average temperature where the measuring equipment is located?
Get back to us when you actually look at the requirements for official temperature readings.


Well I tried. I went to all the most popular pro-AGW sites to see if I could find how measurements are taken. No luck. Seems like none of those folks are posting any standards or even methods for how the global temperature is taken.
Probably because temperature readings have NOTHING to do with being pro or anti anything.

Most of the HCN sites are located in towns of 10,000 or less, about 70%. 90% of the sites are located in towns of 50,000 or less. (Quayle, et al)

The sites used to be thermometers contained in a specific type of enclosure. That was changed at many sites by 1991 to be a thermister in a specific enclosure.

All the data is then compared to other data and adjusted to account for urbanization and errors.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushcn/

Quote:

I did find these sites, but they probably won't be acceptable to the pro-AGW group:

http://www.john-daly.com/ges/surftmp/surftemp.htm
outdated. Many US stations and others around the world are now in plastic boxes and use thermistors instead of thermometers. Also fails to discuss the way the readings are checked statistically against other readings. See the procedure in my link above.
Nothing to do with surface temperature readings and how they are taken.
Nothing to do with how surface temperature readings are taken.
Biased (or ignorant) in that it fails to mention how readings are adjusted for urbanization.
What a lovely bunch of Bull Shite on that site. It doesn't deal with any of the actual science of how temperatures are taken. It just jumps to a conclusion with no facts.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 11 Dec, 2007 09:49 pm
Now that you have the answers to your questions Fox, I assume you will no longer need to ask the questions.

Temperature taking has NEVER been done in "wild shrubbery".
Temperature taking has always been done where people can acutally go and record the temperature. It has ALWAYS been near buildings if not on buildings.
The majority of the temperature recording sites are NOT in cities.
Urban recording sites are usually located at airports. Airports have large grassy areas that are NOT paved.
Those sites that ARE in urban areas are adjusted based on nearby rural readings.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 11 Dec, 2007 10:04 pm
parados wrote:

...
Evaporated surface water can NOT contain CO2. Gases do NOT contain other gases.

Gases form mixtures with each other. In gaseous mixtures of H2O molecules and CO2 molecules, the number of H2O molecules usually far exceeds the number of CO2 molecules. In that sense, in a mixture of molecules of H2O vapor and molecules of CO2 gas, the H2O molecular mixture contains the CO2 molecules .
Quote:

http://www.psinvention.com/mixtures.htm
Brief Outline Of Molecular Mixtures
There are basically 3 types of mixtures. They can be characterized by how they combine ( interaction with the solute (substance being disolved) and solvent ( dissolving medium)) as well as how they can be separated.
• Suspension:
The ingredients are (stirred) in. If left alone, they will settle out. The heavier ingredient will settle to the bottom. Filtration can seperate the two ingredients. An example would be dirt mixed with water.
• Colloidial:
The size of the solute is smaller than in a suspension, but greater than in a solution (see below). The solute breaks down but remains as a clump of molecules and is smaller than the eye can see. Colloids are a bit unusual in that the solute is equally dispersed in the solvent as in a solution, but the solute does not completely break down. In many cases this is because something coats the bits of solute and prevents them from completely disolving in the solvent. An example would be mayonaise, jello or Oobleck.
• Solution:
The solute and solvent are dissolved and cannot be separated unless one of the ingredients changes state of matter. ie. distilation, (evaporating) or crystallation. An example would be salt and water.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 11 Dec, 2007 10:17 pm
parados wrote:
Now that you have the answers to your questions Fox, I assume you will no longer need to ask the questions.

Temperature taking has NEVER been done in "wild shrubbery".


Well good. I'm glad we cleared that up. It was therefore clever of me when I didn't suggest that it was. I did make the point that the temperature in wild shrubbery well away from developed areas would likely be cooler than the temperature in the developed areas. And that was pertinent to the point I was making for those paying attention,.

Quote:
Temperature taking has always been done where people can acutally go and record the temperature. It has ALWAYS been near buildings if not on buildings.


I see. Do you have anything to support that opinion which would of course discredit the article about the weather station at Bandelier NM that I posted?

Quote:
The majority of the temperature recording sites are NOT in cities.
Urban recording sites are usually located at airports. Airports have large grassy areas that are NOT paved.


Again, do you have something I could use for reference? (I post at other sites where this is being discussed.) Most airports have also explanded and both ground and air traffic has increased substantially over the last several decades. Do you have any information on whether this would affect the nearby temperatures, say on those large grassy areas?

Quote:
Those sites that ARE in urban areas are adjusted based on nearby rural readings.


So again when I read that they only use the actual measurements and do not 'estimate' for the nearby station that is down, they are just talking through their hats? How is it that you have come to know about all this. I'll admit I'm just learning.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 11 Dec, 2007 10:24 pm
ican711nm wrote:
parados wrote:

...
Evaporated surface water can NOT contain CO2. Gases do NOT contain other gases.

Gases form mixtures with each other. In gaseous mixtures of H2O molecules and CO2 molecules, the number of H2O molecules usually far exceeds the number of CO2 molecules. In that sense, in a mixture of molecules of H2O vapor and molecules of CO2 gas, the H2O molecular mixture contains the CO2 molecules .

I guess if you want to pretend that N2 and O2 and all the other gases don't exist, you could claim that.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 11 Dec, 2007 10:47 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
parados wrote:
Now that you have the answers to your questions Fox, I assume you will no longer need to ask the questions.

Temperature taking has NEVER been done in "wild shrubbery".


Well good. I'm glad we cleared that up. It was therefore clever of me when I didn't suggest that it was. I did make the point that the temperature in wild shrubbery well away from developed areas would likely be cooler than the temperature in the developed areas. And that was pertinent to the point I was making for those paying attention,.
Would that be just like you never suggested that temperatures were being taken in subdivisions or urban areas? Rolling Eyes
Quote:

Quote:
Temperature taking has always been done where people can acutally go and record the temperature. It has ALWAYS been near buildings if not on buildings.


I see. Do you have anything to support that opinion which would of course discredit the article about the weather station at Bandelier NM that I posted?
Considering the type of system that is in Bandelier, I would love to see the readings you think were taken from 1860 to 1980 at that site. The article you posted is bull ****. Please provide us with evidence that this site is used in showing temperature increases from 1860 to today. The historical readings were taken near buildings because PEOPLE had to take those readings. With new technology, they have been able to include more areas but they can only be used as checks on the other stations since they have no long term readings. Read the NOAA site which states the sites used are chosen for RECORD LONGEVITY amongst other reasons.
Quote:

Quote:
The majority of the temperature recording sites are NOT in cities.
Urban recording sites are usually located at airports. Airports have large grassy areas that are NOT paved.


Again, do you have something I could use for reference? (I post at other sites where this is being discussed.) Most airports have also explanded and both ground and air traffic has increased substantially over the last several decades. Do you have any information on whether this would affect the nearby temperatures, say on those large grassy areas?
Gee. So you don't trust NOAA? You prefer to get your information from uninformed bloggers?
Quote:

Quote:
Those sites that ARE in urban areas are adjusted based on nearby rural readings.


So again when I read that they only use the actual measurements and do not 'estimate' for the nearby station that is down, they are just talking through their hats? How is it that you have come to know about all this. I'll admit I'm just learning.
You didn't read the NOAA site. did you? I think it is obvious you aren't interested in learning the facts based on your responses so far. If you think they are talking through their hats then kindly point out the errors in the mathematics they use to adjust. Certainly if they were "talking through their hats" someone should have found the errors since 1987, don't you think? Do you prefer science or people talking out of their ass like the sites you cited?
0 Replies
 
Diest TKO
 
  1  
Reply Tue 11 Dec, 2007 11:13 pm
miniTAX wrote:
Diest TKO wrote:
First off, stop being a dick.
Second, I read your article, and it doesn't refutte GW, only that this particular glacier makes a poor example via the mass decrease is mostly due to sublimation.
...
I believe Mr Mote, and Mr Kaser wrote a sound article, but in no way have disproved GW. However, they may have found further effects of GW in the process. I will have to keep my eyes peeled.
Here's the deal, I'll stop being a dick when you'll stop belching non sequiturs.
GW is a tautology like tomatoes ketchup or zero calory water : climate has only 2 choices, GW or G cooling. Never has it been stable and never it will. So what's the fuss about GW ?

First non-sequitur was to call you on your dickish behavior. It will be the last too, just own up and show some more cordial behavior. Very Happy

T
K
O
0 Replies
 
miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Wed 12 Dec, 2007 01:48 am
parados wrote:
The majority of the temperature recording sites are NOT in cities.
That's untrue! Sites are classified rural or urban (with population) and most of the GHCN sites are urban. For France as a whole, there are only 6 "reference" stations in this Global Climate Network, and just ONE (Mont Aigoual) is rural but its data is mysteriously interrupted since 2000 (the station is still maintained, it's even one of the best stations used for weather forecast by Meteo France).
The CRU (global temperature purveyor for the IPCC) for example has not included A SINGLE rural station in all sites for France.

For the whole Africa, there is no rural site with consistent record longer than 50 years in the GISS database! NOT A SINGLE.

parados wrote:

Urban recording sites are usually located at airports. Airports have large grassy areas that are NOT paved.
Those sites that ARE in urban areas are adjusted based on nearby rural readings.
Parados, if adjustments worked, global surface temperatures given by the 3 official organisms (GISS, CRU, NOAA) should be the same, but it's not the case. Visibly, you don't know how adjustments work, so avoid talking about adjustments.

The climate network is problems ridden and is scientifically unsuitable to assess small temperature trends in the order of 0.1°C/decade. But to know it, it requires hard work, a lot of reading and a lot of data analysis, not just hand waving. That's the only way to know since the people who give the global temperature don't open their raw data, nor their algorithm and their results are UNREPRODUCIBLE by third parties. You'll find nowhere temperature records of stations used by the CRU (just a list of stations released only last september after more than 15 years of request and several FOI filings). I've done this hard work, have you ?
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 12 Dec, 2007 06:22 am
minitax wrote;
Quote:
I've done this hard work, have you ?


I confess that I have not done the hard work. But, of course, this is a function of social class.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 12 Dec, 2007 06:47 am
miniTAX wrote:
You'll find nowhere temperature records of stations used by the CRU (just a list of stations released only last september after more than 15 years of request and several FOI filings). I've done this hard work, have you ?


Well, some are printed (e.g. in Jones and Moberg [2003]).
And for more questions: just asked them

http://i4.tinypic.com/81qv0np.jpg
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 12 Dec, 2007 08:20 am
miniTAX wrote:
parados wrote:
The majority of the temperature recording sites are NOT in cities.
That's untrue!
I see you didn't bother to check my source but just spouted off as if you knew what you were talking about. We were talking about the US.
Quote:
Sites are classified rural or urban (with population) and most of the GHCN sites are urban.
I believe that there are about 7 classifications used for the US not just population.
Quote:
For France as a whole, there are only 6 "reference" stations in this Global Climate Network,
Considering they use 5 degree square sections that would probably be about right.
Quote:
and just ONE (Mont Aigoual) is rural but its data is mysteriously interrupted since 2000 (the station is still maintained, it's even one of the best stations used for weather forecast by Meteo France).
That is an interesting claim. What does "interrupted" mean in your part of the world. Here is a data set that includes EVERY DAY at Mont Aigoual from 1/1/2000 to 1/1/2005. http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/teca302.dat I am sure I could find up to the date records if I bothered to look.

Quote:

The CRU (global temperature purveyor for the IPCC) for example has not included A SINGLE rural station in all sites for France.
France isn't part of the US HCN. Rolling Eyes
Quote:

For the whole Africa, there is no rural site with consistent record longer than 50 years in the GISS database! NOT A SINGLE.
Record longevity does not mean every section of the earth has 150 years of records. The weather site in Los Alamos National Forest, one of 4 that are in the national park, does not have longevity compared to other sites in that area.
Quote:

parados wrote:

Urban recording sites are usually located at airports. Airports have large grassy areas that are NOT paved.
Those sites that ARE in urban areas are adjusted based on nearby rural readings.
Parados, if adjustments worked, global surface temperatures given by the 3 official organisms (GISS, CRU, NOAA) should be the same, but it's not the case. Visibly, you don't know how adjustments work, so avoid talking about adjustments.
hmm.. since you claimed you have never seen the raw data how can you now claim that the adjustments don't work? Global surface temperatures use a formula. Adjustments for local temperatures use a formula. You are claiming the differences in the global formulas show the local adjustment formula doesn't work. That is foolish and even you should be able to see how foolish it is.

Quote:

The climate network is problems ridden and is scientifically unsuitable to assess small temperature trends in the order of 0.1°C/decade. But to know it, it requires hard work, a lot of reading and a lot of data analysis, not just hand waving. That's the only way to know since the people who give the global temperature don't open their raw data, nor their algorithm and their results are UNREPRODUCIBLE by third parties. You'll find nowhere temperature records of stations used by the CRU (just a list of stations released only last september after more than 15 years of request and several FOI filings). I've done this hard work, have you ?
Nice to see you waving your hand there minitax. Maybe if you jump up and down when you wave your hand, it might make your statements seem more plausible.
0 Replies
 
 

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