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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Jul, 2007 11:56 pm
Any idea why broken glass is unacceptable for recycling?

Here, when they collect the glas, they break it in the process of collecting (= it's smashed in the collecting containers).
Biggest business in recycling .... besides paper, of course.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 12 Jul, 2007 12:00 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
According to the NCDC

Quote:
The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for May was the fourth warmest on record, 0.95°F/0.53°C above the 20th century mean. The global surface temperature for the combined January-May period tied with 1998 as the warmest January-May on record.


Maybe everybody else sees a distinct trend since 1998 in the following graph except me? To me, it seems maybe very weakly upward on average, but really more like a plateau, and the peaks still do not surpass 1998. Based on the current trends, it does not appear to be conclusive at all which way the graph will go in the future.

http://www.junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/MSUvsNCDC.html
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 12 Jul, 2007 12:07 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Any idea why broken glass is unacceptable for recycling?

Here, when they collect the glas, they break it in the process of collecting (= it's smashed in the collecting containers).
Biggest business in recycling .... besides paper, of course.

I don't know, Walter, I wondered that too. Maybe it has something to do with the practicality of separating broken glass from other materials during the collection process. Just a theory.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 12 Jul, 2007 12:35 am
okie wrote:
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Any idea why broken glass is unacceptable for recycling?

Here, when they collect the glas, they break it in the process of collecting (= it's smashed in the collecting containers).
Biggest business in recycling .... besides paper, of course.

I don't know, Walter, I wondered that too. Maybe it has something to do with the practicality of separating broken glass from other materials during the collection process. Just a theory.


Well, that's how it's done here: breaking the glass and thus collecting the other material (done by maschines, it's cheaper and easier that way).
0 Replies
 
George Baxter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 14 Jul, 2007 01:24 pm
Quote:

Maybe everybody else sees a distinct trend since 1998 in the following graph except me? To me, it seems maybe very weakly upward on average, but really more like a plateau, and the peaks still do not surpass 1998. Based on the current trends, it does not appear to be conclusive at all which way the graph will go in the future.


Okie, I agree with you. I have independently come to the same conclusion, that there has not really been a real increase since 1998. The source of my data is the UK Met Office Hadley centre. You can download the data yourself.

UK Met office Hadley Centre


My view is that the global temperature is the result of many, many variables, of which CO2 in a minor one. The 1998 peak coincides with the second largest el Nino.

Where would it leave the scientists and the politicians, if the trend does start to go down? Apart from having egg on their faces, they know that most of them will not be around, as it will take at least 20 years to really know if the trend is up, down or in its current plateau. It will actually play into the hands of the extremists ( political, ideological, and religious ) who already attack science and democracy. Should they be wrong, then many institutions will become isolated and under threat.
0 Replies
 
George Baxter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 14 Jul, 2007 01:51 pm
Steve 41oo wrote:
Let us be absolutely clear about this.

Mike Lockwood original's research showed that in the past the sun's activity level has influenced climate.

But the point that the climate change deniers refuse to take on board is that the change from solar activity is swamped by man made green house gas emissions.

Lockwood himself never disputed this and was outraged when his data was deliberately misused in order to present a misleading picture of the science to the general public.

The programme The Great Global Warming Swindle cut off graphs[/b] showing sunspot activity and temperature rise in the 1980s when the two trends started to go in the opposite[/b] direction.

Dr Mike Lockwood Rutherford Appleton Laboratory wrote:


The trouble is that the theory of solar activity and climate change was being misappropriated to apply to modern day warming. The sceptics were taking perfectly good science and bringing it into disrespect[/b]



The Royal Society is the oldest and most respected scientific body in the world.

this is what they say

The Royal Society wrote:
There is a small minority which is seeking to confuse the public on the causes of climate change. They are often misrepresenting the science, when the reality is that the evidence is getting stronger every day[/b]


In other words the sceptics are not being honest.

Studies now show conclusively that global warming continues despite solar activity pushing in the opposite i.e. cooling[/b] direction.

The sceptics are frauds and cheats and motivated by concerns other than science. Lets hear no more from them about the sun causing the global warming phenomenum that we observe.

apologies for the italics and bolded type but sometimes you have to shout to make some people listen.


I disagree with you, Steve 41oo. Lockwood may be correct about the Great Global Warming Swindle (GGWS), only showing data until 1980. But the original research by Drs Svensmark and Friis-Christensen was published in 1998 and uses data up until 1995. Henrik Svensmark - Influence of Cosmic rays and Earth's climate

An important distinction must also be pointed out. Drs Svensmark and Friis-Christensen used the % change, not the actual cosmic ray counts used by Lockwood. Many phenomena in physics depend on the rate of change, not the absolute value.

I have become more doubtful of the global warming debate. The GGWS has highlighted that there are many non-scientific interested parties. Labelling people as "sceptic" and stigmatising them is wrong. Scientific history is littered with paradigms which have been shown to be wrong. Science, if it is to progress as it needs to, must be allowed to do so without bias. Dr Lockwood's report cannot be taken at face value. After all, he has his own vested interests to protect.

I suggest you look at Dr Svensmark review. The correlations are very clear and do link cloud cover to %change in cosmic rays. And they are valid up until 1995. I acknowledge that there is a divergency at the end, but that can also be another phenomena, such as el Nino. The fact is that although Lockwood cites the Royal Society graph, that is at variance with other data, showing that the temperature has not really risen since 1998. Therefore, there are good grounds to be circumspect about the Lockwood report.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Sat 14 Jul, 2007 02:26 pm
welcome to a2k George

I dont pretend to be a climatologist. I can only consider (I do have some scientific training) the considered opinion of experts in this field. Coupled with common sense and some simple indisputable facts (the rate of current warming, the fact that CO2 is a green house gas, the concentration of CO2 now c.f. pre industrialisation) leads me with no option but to accept the opinion of bodies such as the IPCC and the Royal Society.

If you have expertise in this field, argue your case with them not me.

It is also a fact that there are vested interests funding critics and sceptics of the consensus scientific position for their own reasons. Science is always open to change of ideas. But those ideas have to be based on science and not politics.
0 Replies
 
xingu
 
  1  
Reply Sat 14 Jul, 2007 02:34 pm
This may be an oversimplification but who has the vested interest in discrediting global warming; industries that pollute. It will cost them money to clean up their act. Who supports industries that pollute in America; the Republicans. So it's not surprising that we see the conservatives coming out against global warming, claiming it's a fraud or it's the sun's fault and we can't do anything about it.

Faux Noise is famous for this.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Jul, 2007 02:02 am
http://i13.tinypic.com/4l6hxxt.jpg

Quote:
Climate Change Debate Hinges On Economics
Lawmakers Doubt Voters Would Fund Big Carbon Cuts


By Steven Mufson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, July 15, 2007; Page A01

Here's the good news about climate change: Energy and climate experts say the world already possesses the technological know-how for trimming greenhouse gas emissions enough to slow the perilous rise in the Earth's temperatures.

Here's the bad news: Because of the enormous cost of addressing global warming, the energy legislation considered by Congress so far will make barely a dent in the problem, while farther-reaching climate proposals stand a remote chance of passage.

Despite growing public concern over global warming, the House has failed to agree on new standards for automobile fuel efficiency, and the Senate has done little to boost the efficiency of commercial office buildings and appliances. In September, Congress is expected to start wrestling with more ambitious legislation aimed at slowing climate change; but because of the complexity of the likely proposals, few expect any bill to become law. Even if passed by Congress and signed by President Bush, the final measure may not be tough enough to slow global warming.


Full report @ Washington Post
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Jul, 2007 02:16 am
(Graphics from the WaPo, print edition, pages A1 and A10 & A11)

http://i19.tinypic.com/4pk1mw3.jpg
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Jul, 2007 02:16 am
http://i9.tinypic.com/4vn3lhw.jpg
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Jul, 2007 02:22 am
http://i19.tinypic.com/6ajsoqp.jpg
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Jul, 2007 02:31 am
The following graphic is from page 10

http://i10.tinypic.com/4y64iu8.jpg

http://i12.tinypic.com/67edwyb.jpg
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Jul, 2007 10:14 pm
How very considerate of others to outline for us that the United States should reduce its GHG emissions by more than all the other G8 ciountries combined. None of the Kyoto signatories is anywhere close to meeting the goals they have alrteady so proudly and solemnly set for themselves. Perhaps they should spend more time looking inward..

No plan to reduce GHG emissions in any of the major industrial countries that fails to address a significant increase in the use of nuclear power production deserves to be taken seriously by an informed person.

The "science" announced with such fanfare and authority that purports to outline practical solutions to GHG reductions, is not science at all if it does not include a suubstantial increase in nuclear power production.

The self-contradictory positions of most of the AGW advocates, and the credulity with which they blandly accept unprovable "tipping point" scenarios continues to amaze me.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Jul, 2007 11:05 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
How very considerate of others to outline for us that the United States should reduce its GHG emissions by more than all the other G8 ciountries combined. None of the Kyoto signatories is anywhere close to meeting the goals they have alrteady so proudly and solemnly set for themselves. Perhaps they should spend more time looking inward..

No plan to reduce GHG emissions in any of the major industrial countries that fails to address a significant increase in the use of nuclear power production deserves to be taken seriously by an informed person.

The "science" announced with such fanfare and authority that purports to outline practical solutions to GHG reductions, is not science at all if it does not include a suubstantial increase in nuclear power production.

The self-contradictory positions of most of the AGW advocates, and the credulity with which they blandly accept unprovable "tipping point" scenarios continues to amaze me.


Whom exactly do you call "others" here?

The Washington Post? Those senators? Or me, because I posted that?
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Jul, 2007 01:18 am
miniTAX wrote:
Cites Tuvalu, Polynesia, as a place where rising sea levels force residents to
evacuate their homes. In reality, sea levels at Tuvalu fell during the latter
of the 20 th century and even during the 1990s, allegedly the warmest decade
of the millennium.


Today's Independent has this on the fronpage today and a very ineresting report

http://i14.tinypic.com/4qi884j.jpg
Quote:
Veu Lesa, a 73-year-old villager in Tuvalu, does not need scientific reports to tell him that the sea is rising. The evidence is all around him. The beaches of his childhood are vanishing. The crops that used to feed his family have been poisoned by salt water. In April, he had to leave his home when a "king tide" flooded it, showering it with rocks and debris.

For Tuvalu, a string of nine picturesque atolls and coral islands, global warming is not an abstract danger; it is a daily reality. The tiny South Pacific nation, only four metres above sea level at its highest point, may not exist in a few decades. Its people are already in flight; more than 4,000 live in New Zealand, and many of the remaining 10,500 are planning to join the exodus. Others, though, are determined to stay and try to fight the advancing waves.

The outlook is bleak. A tidal gauge on the main atoll, Funafuti, suggests the sea level is climbing by 5.6mm a year, twice the average global rate predicted by the UN's International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

There is not enough data yet to establish a definitive trend but that figure is alarming, implying a rise of more than half a metre in the next century. Most Tuvaluans live just one to two metres above sea level.




As an aside: if miniTAX and Foxfyre left for ever, we will miss something.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Jul, 2007 06:19 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
miniTAX wrote:
Cites Tuvalu, Polynesia, as a place where rising sea levels force residents to
evacuate their homes. In reality, sea levels at Tuvalu fell during the latter
of the 20 th century and even during the 1990s, allegedly the warmest decade
of the millennium.


Today's Independent has this on the fronpage today and a very ineresting report

http://i14.tinypic.com/4qi884j.jpg
Quote:
Veu Lesa, a 73-year-old villager in Tuvalu, does not need scientific reports to tell him that the sea is rising. The evidence is all around him. The beaches of his childhood are vanishing. The crops that used to feed his family have been poisoned by salt water. In April, he had to leave his home when a "king tide" flooded it, showering it with rocks and debris.

For Tuvalu, a string of nine picturesque atolls and coral islands, global warming is not an abstract danger; it is a daily reality. The tiny South Pacific nation, only four metres above sea level at its highest point, may not exist in a few decades. Its people are already in flight; more than 4,000 live in New Zealand, and many of the remaining 10,500 are planning to join the exodus. Others, though, are determined to stay and try to fight the advancing waves.

The outlook is bleak. A tidal gauge on the main atoll, Funafuti, suggests the sea level is climbing by 5.6mm a year, twice the average global rate predicted by the UN's International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

There is not enough data yet to establish a definitive trend but that figure is alarming, implying a rise of more than half a metre in the next century. Most Tuvaluans live just one to two metres above sea level.




As an aside: if miniTAX and Foxfyre left for ever, we will miss something.
game set and match to walter on that one.

Dont worry if they dont return walter, they wrote a lot, no doubt you will find lots of other assertions claims and predictions which will turn out to be out of line with the observed facts.

Georgeob1...apart from a huge expansion of nuclear power, what do you suggest we do?
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Jul, 2007 11:33 am
xingu wrote:
This may be an oversimplification but who has the vested interest in discrediting global warming; industries that pollute. It will cost them money to clean up their act. Who supports industries that pollute in America; the Republicans. So it's not surprising that we see the conservatives coming out against global warming, claiming it's a fraud or it's the sun's fault and we can't do anything about it.

Faux Noise is famous for this.

The main group that has a vested interest is the group I would call "control freaks." These people mostly reside in government, and they get their joy from telling everybody on the planet what to do, except China of course, which is or will be the largest polluter on the planet
.
I find Walter's graphs too humorous. I thought it was "over" if we did not reduce our emissions? Now that Kyoto is apparently a failed little experiment, apparently the motto is simply to reduce the rate of growth of emissions. Does anyone else smell a rat here?
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Jul, 2007 11:49 am
okie wrote:
I find Walter's graphs too humorous. I thought it was "over" if we did not reduce our emissions? Now that Kyoto is apparently a failed little experiment, apparently the motto is simply to reduce the rate of growth of emissions. Does anyone else smell a rat here?


a) I've never posted own graphs.
b) thse above are copied/pasted from the washingto Post, as clearly noted - I though.

Obviously not.
George as well as you, okie, read something in them/out of them which I didn't get before: I thought it was, as written there a comparison of five climate change bills in the US Senate.

But you proved me wrong. Thanks.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Jul, 2007 12:40 pm
Walter, I obviously know you did not make the graphs. You posted them, so I can call them Walter's graphs, can't I?

It seems the hopes or aims of the global warming predictors seem to be morphing from reduction to reduction in rate of growth. I just find that rather revealing in terms of the past dire predictions claimed by the people that are the most alarmed and troubled about all of this. If arsenic is sure to kill us all at the present dosage, then how is drinking twice as much arsenic in the future better than 3 times as much, Walter?
0 Replies
 
 

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