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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Mar, 2007 04:47 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:

Could you please provide the link for your source?
I'd really like to read the reasons why their number diminished even more.
Walter,
Here is the WHO's 2006 report on Tchernobyl.
The real death attributable to the explosion is... 59 and the estimated future death attributable to the explosion is 4,000 over a population of 600,000, which doesn't mean it is the real number. On a population of 600,000, with a life expectancy of 60 years (yes, it can be as low as that in those ex-soviet republics), just natural death claims 10,000 lifes EACH YEAR, to be compared to the TOTAL 4,000 estimated for Tchernobyl. A number way, way below thoses boasted by Greenpeace which based their "report" on nothing scientifically serious, as usual.

Anyway, the estimation is very uncertain based on arbitrary assumption as you can see on page 106 or the report :
Quote:
This total, about 4000 deaths projected over the lifetimes of some 600,000 persons most affected by the accident is a small proportion of the total cancer deaths from all causes that can be expected to occur in this population. It must be stressed that this estimate is bounded by large uncertainties, because of the only approximate applicability of the risk estimates and other factors, as mentioned above.


Have you seen Greenpeace apologize for their totally bogus numbers and the hysteria they triggered ? I haven't.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Mar, 2007 04:50 pm
hamburger wrote:

the ontario government is indeed objecting to airborne chemical and particulate contamination ... however the objection is particularly strong against the dirt blowing in from OHIO and KENTUCKY .
there may indeed be some dirt coming from the west but most is coming from ohio and kentucky ... sorry , george .
hbg


You should consult a meteorologist about the normal direction of prevailing winds. It is an habitual entertainment of Canadians to blame the U.S. for their own troubles.

The propaganda about so-called "relaxed pollution controls" is in fact a reference to actions taken to allow owners of old coal fired plants to install efficiency-enhancing upgrades to their combustion controllers, without invoking the requirements of environmental regulation that would otherwise require the plants to fully meet contemporary standards for which they were not designed. This unwise regulatory requirement has been a powerful disincentive for investment in many powerplants that will significantly REDUCE the fuel they consume and therefore the pollution they produce. The article you quoted was deceptive propaganda that masked the truth of the matter.
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miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Mar, 2007 04:52 pm
Steve 41oo wrote:
I dont have a problem with nuclear energy, just misleading comparisons between a coal mine accident and Chernobyl.
What is misleading please ? I was comparing the number of victims by various forms of electricity generation, coal, nuclear or whatever.
A death by coal mine accident can't be compared to a death by Tchernobyl ? Not enough valuable for the anti-nuclear propaganda I presume ? Shocked
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hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Mar, 2007 04:55 pm
george wrote :

Quote:
The article you quoted was deceptive propaganda that masked the truth of the matter.


well , one "truth" is that the number of "smog alert days" is increaing steadily in ontario year-after-year .
that's one gift from the united states that we can do without .
hbg
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Mar, 2007 05:01 pm
This may well have more to do with local development and fuel consumption in Ontario. Recorded air Quality in the U.S, midwest has been improving in recent years - with fewer smog alert days than in the past.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Mar, 2007 05:02 pm
That's strange. Most American cities are reporting much less smog than they used to. I wonder why the same isn't true in Ontario?
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hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Mar, 2007 05:12 pm
foxfire wrote :

Quote:
That's strange. Most American cities are reporting much less smog than they used to. I wonder why the same isn't true in Ontario?


remember the song : "...it's blowin' in the wind..." ?
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miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Mar, 2007 05:17 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
That's strange. Most American cities are reporting much less smog than they used to. I wonder why the same isn't true in Ontario?
This is a dirty little secret well kept everywhere in every rich country to justify the very existence of the regulators : cities air pollution has decreased everywhere yet 99% of people believe the contrary.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Mar, 2007 05:29 pm
miniTAX wrote:
Foxfyre wrote:
That's strange. Most American cities are reporting much less smog than they used to. I wonder why the same isn't true in Ontario?
This is a dirty little secret well kept everywhere in every rich country to justify the very existence of the regulators : cities air pollution has decreased everywhere yet 99% of people believe the contrary.


That's what I've heard. But as Hamburger says, "It's blowin' in the wind." Now correct me if I'm wrong, but I think air quality is probably worse in the cities in the winter due to less ethanol in the petrol and more wood burning fireplaces and generally more energy consumed for heat even aside from more inversions, etc. And doesn't the prevailing wind blow more from north to south than otherwise in the Winter?

I'm pretty sure those arctic blasts that freeze our farkles off around here in the winter pass through Canada getting here.

So.....ahem......who's smogging up who here? Smile
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miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Mar, 2007 05:30 pm
Foxfyre wrote:

So.....ahem......who's smogging up who here? Smile


Here is for example the evolution of atmospheric pollutant since 1975, for Montreal (click on the red dots to see the graphs)
http://www.rsqa.qc.ca/histrsqf.htm#pt
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Mar, 2007 06:08 pm
miniTAX wrote:
Steve 41oo wrote:
I dont have a problem with nuclear energy, just misleading comparisons between a coal mine accident and Chernobyl.
What is misleading please ?

the comparison between a coal mine accident and Chernobyl. Which George made. NOT a death by radiation and a death by methane explosion. The comparison with a coal mine accident and the worlds worst nuclear accident, at Chernobyl. Got it yet?
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Mar, 2007 07:09 pm
The short term consequences of Chernobyl were in the hundreds of deaths; 40 or 50 from the fire and explosion; others from radiation exposure, mostly in the immediate containment activities. In this respect it was much less than many serious mining accidents.

If one is not killed by high level radiation exposure, recovery is almost always complete. The primary effect is on the rapidly reproducing cells of the gut and the blood-forming cells in the bone marrow. When the exposure ceases, recovery is fairly quick - if one doessn't die as a result of secondary infection and anemia. There is a lingering increased likelihood of various cancers, depending on the specific details of the exposure, with external source gamma radiation (as in a nuclear accident) being generally less harmful than other biological pathways.

There are also lingering hazards and increased mortality associated with coal mining and mine accidents, and for most victims they are roughly comparable.

The truth is that apart from the property damage and evacuated town, the Chernobyl accident was indeed comparable with a severe mining accident.
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Diest TKO
 
  1  
Reply Thu 29 Mar, 2007 02:39 am
I won't readily agree that the Chernobyl incident alnoe is comparable to a single mining accident, I will say that it is comparable to mining accidents over a year or two.

Point being, nuclear plants and all things incorparated actually have pretty clean record when compared to coal incorparated.

There is no doubt that Chernobyl was a horrible failure. I'm just saying that as extreme as it was, it still is put to shame by the coal based power industry when it comes to deaths, and eco-fouls.

It's really a shame. Nuclear power is serious a great alternative. Because of an incident like this, people are scared to trust it. Phycologicaly we have the image of a plant going critial mass and our minds are impregnated by old images of 50 nuclear weapons testing.

It's a great technology. Let's not forget that dynamite was the first invention to win the Nobel Peace Prize. It was only later manufactured into its milltary applications. Even in contemporary times we certainly don't assoiate dyanmite with saving lives.

As for how this relates to GW, I say we need to move away from coal based power. It think that is obviously my thesis... but just in case I wasn't being transparent enough. I think it could help a great deal.
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miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Thu 29 Mar, 2007 03:02 am
georgeob1 wrote:
The short term consequences of Chernobyl were in the hundreds of deaths; 40 or 50 from the fire and explosion; others from radiation exposure, mostly in the immediate containment activities.
The short and middle term consequences of Chernobyl has been 59 deaths, dixit WHO (see above link), NOT hundreds of deaths.
And the consequences of radiation would have been much less if it weren't the soviet style handling of the accident, where people were not evacuated and given iodine pills on time and dairy products in the vicinity of Chernobyl were used days after the accident.

The WHO has made high estimates of the number of radiation casualties based on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and it is shown to be far fewer than the "lofty" numbers of Greenpeace. The disintegration of the Soviet Union has lowered the life expectancy in the region (-10 years for men !) as everywhere in the whole communist empire much more surely than Chernobyl which has made a precise accounting of the accident consequences particularly difficult.

If a nuclear accident must mean something, we can take a more representative example of western plants with Three Miles Island. The core has melted. The double hull has made its protection role. There was zero radiation leak and nothing has changed with the population which live neaby. This is an inconvenient truth for the anti-nuclear folks, so inconvenient they never mention it.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Thu 29 Mar, 2007 04:13 am
Diest TKO wrote:
... I say we need to move away from coal based power.
American coal is about to expand

http://www.clean-coal.info/coalis

as will nuclear

as will renewables

because the easy oil has gone.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 29 Mar, 2007 12:05 pm
I think you are mostly right in that Steve. It is interesting though to note that we (all of us) use coal, nuclear, natuural gas, and some renewable sources for our electrical power, and petroleum for trans[portation. Petroleum is also used as feed stock for a large chemical & plastics industry. To a large (though not complete) extent these uses are not fungible.

Coal and natural gas compete with nuclear and renewables for electrical power production. Petroleum compwetes with -- ethanol for transportation -- and so far little else. There are qualifiers to this. Large public rail transit systems are generally electrically powered and therefore a substitute for petroleum. However they are hugely expensive, requiring large government subsidies to compete with consumers with a choice.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Thu 29 Mar, 2007 12:08 pm
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 29 Mar, 2007 12:59 pm
Foxfyre wrote:

Those from the greenies groups who both admire Castro and favor biofuels may be conflicted over this kind of thing. Very Happy


Now, this confuses me a bit: how is that both related? Does supporting biofuels mean you admire Castro?

I would think that the biofuel industry here is run here in Germany by the most conservative group I can imagine: conservative farmer co-operations. I sincerely doubt that they have any good feelings towards Castro's policy - besides, perhaps, that they fly to Cuba because of the cheap holidays there.
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hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Thu 29 Mar, 2007 01:05 pm
walter wrote :

Quote:
I would think that the biofuel industry here is run here in Germany by the most conservative group I can imagine: conservative farmer co-operations. I sincerely doubt that they have any good feelings towards Castro's policy - besides, perhaps, that they fly to Cuba because of the cheap holidays there.


canada's farmers endorse walter's statement :wink: .
they currently run plenty of television ads singing the praises of corn-based ethanol - and they happily note the price of corn going up ... and up ... and up Very Happy Exclamation
hbg
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Thu 29 Mar, 2007 01:05 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Foxfyre wrote:

Those from the greenies groups who both admire Castro and favor biofuels may be conflicted over this kind of thing. Very Happy


Now, this confuses me a bit: how is that both related? Does supporting biofuels mean you admire Castro?


If I had meant that, I would have said that. I didn't say that.

Quote:
I would think that the biofuel industry here is run here in Germany by the most conservative group I can imagine: conservative farmer co-operations. I sincerely doubt that they have any good feelings towards Castro's policy - besides, perhaps, that they fly to Cuba because of the cheap holidays there.


I am definitely a 'greenie' and I am pretty conservative in many areas (not all). But the greenies also include some of the most militant leftwing wacko groups and some of these are huge admirers of Castro and socialist policies they pretend are wonderful in Cuba.
0 Replies
 
 

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