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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Mar, 2007 06:42 am
Walter writes
Quote:
So 10 to 30% of one year's methane are produced by plants - which was formerly though to be impossible.

This means now exactly what re climate change?


I don't know. But don't you think it should be at least considered in the debate?


Quote:
It doesn't happen? It isn't our fault?


I think only the most irrational anti-human radical would think that it is humankind's fault that plants emit methane.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Mar, 2007 06:58 am
Foxfyre wrote:
Walter writes
Quote:
So 10 to 30% of one year's methane are produced by plants - which was formerly though to be impossible.

This means now exactly what re climate change?


I don't know. But don't you think it should be at least considered in the debate?

It was published in January this year:
Quote:
Nature 439, 187-191 (12 January 2006) | doi:10.1038/nature04420


That report took more than one year to get published, half a year to get accepted.

Quote:
Received 14 July 2005; Accepted 3 November 2005


I do suppose - and there are a lot of various sources reporting such - that not only he and his collegues, other Max Plnack Institues but somme more already search about it:
Quote:
Methane is an important greenhouse gas and its atmospheric concentration has almost tripled since pre-industrial times1, 2. It plays a central role in atmospheric oxidation chemistry and affects stratospheric ozone and water vapour levels. Most of the methane from natural sources in Earth's atmosphere is thought to originate from biological processes in anoxic environments2. Here we demonstrate using stable carbon isotopes that methane is readily formed in situ in terrestrial plants under oxic conditions by a hitherto unrecognized process. Significant methane emissions from both intact plants and detached leaves were observed during incubation experiments in the laboratory and in the field. If our measurements are typical for short-lived biomass and scaled on a global basis, we estimate a methane source strength of 62-236 Tg yr-1 for living plants and 1-7 Tg yr-1 for plant litter (1 Tg = 1012 g). We suggest that this newly identified source may have important implications for the global methane budget and may call for a reconsideration of the role of natural methane sources in past climate change.
Summary @ nature




Foxfyre wrote:
Quote:
It doesn't happen? It isn't our fault?


I think only the most irrational anti-human radical would think that it is humankind's fault that plants emit methane.


I clearly didn't relate that to plants but to climate change.
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Mar, 2007 09:05 am
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Mar, 2007 09:17 am
As an aside, which is more alarming? An energy specialist who now prescribes international policy on climate control being the head of the CIA? Or somebody qualified to be head of the CIA now presuming to dictate climate policy as an energy specialist with MIT ?

This takes multitasking to new heights I think. Smile

Quote:
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The United States must act to cap its emissions of greenhouse gases and join the fight against climate change or risk losing global leadership, a former CIA director said in a report released on Monday.

"The United States must adopt a carbon emission control policy," John Deutch, head of the Central Intelligence Agency in 1995-96, said in a report to the Trilateral Commission, a grouping of business and opinion leaders from Europe, the United States and Asia.

"If the United States or any other OECD country that is a large producer of greenhouse gas emissions is to retain a leadership role in other areas, it cannot just opt out of the global climate change policy process," he wrote.

Deutch, an energy specialist who is now a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, also proposed an expanded use of nuclear power, international cooperation to develop clean coal technology and a sharing of the costs of emissions control between rich countries and large emerging nations.
MORE HERE
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Mar, 2007 09:21 am
okie wrote:

This is becoming laughable. Every problem is now due to climate change, right, Walter? Pine beetles have been a problem in Colorado for a long time. I've seen those areas, dating back to at least 20 years ago. This is not new news. I believe a large part of the problem is the fire suppression policy and reduced timber cutting by the Forest Service, which has gendered unhealthy crowded forests, which becomes a prime target for disease and fire.


Well, I don't like it either if everything is related to climate change.

But re those pine beetles - you must have better data than the official state and federal offices.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Mar, 2007 09:23 am
Foxfyre wrote:
As an aside, which is more alarming? An energy specialist who now prescribes international policy on climate control being the head of the CIA? Or somebody qualified to be head of the CIA now presuming to dictate climate policy as an energy specialist with MIT ?


Regarding the few climate experts who write their opinions here .... well, why not a CIA person?
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Mar, 2007 09:40 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
okie wrote:

This is becoming laughable. Every problem is now due to climate change, right, Walter? Pine beetles have been a problem in Colorado for a long time. I've seen those areas, dating back to at least 20 years ago. This is not new news. I believe a large part of the problem is the fire suppression policy and reduced timber cutting by the Forest Service, which has gendered unhealthy crowded forests, which becomes a prime target for disease and fire.


Well, I don't like it either if everything is related to climate change.

But re those pine beetles - you must have better data than the official state and federal offices.


The U.S. Forest Service has excellent data on all manner of critters that infest the forests now and then, and this has been going on long before the industrial revolution:
http://www.barkbeetles.org/mountain/fidl2.htm
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Mar, 2007 09:51 am
Thanks, Foxfyre. I'd though, however, YOU were always looking for the latest scientific results - on your quoted site the newest is from 1983.

From the quoted Guardian report:

Quote:
But unlike previous infestations, which experts view as part of the forest's system of self-management, this time a combination of factors has conspired to propel the beetle population to epidemic proportions. Almost the entire stock of lodgepole pines in Colorado is mature, a result of the settlement and logging of much of the area 100 years ago. Consequently, the beetles have an abundant source of food. A long-term drought has put the trees under stress and deprived them of one of their defences against the bugs, the ability to exude sap and expel the insects.
...
"The current outbreak is so far along that there's nothing much that can be done," says Bill Romme, professor of fire ecology at Colorado state university and lead author of a report into the infestation published in November. "If we get a period of bitter cold temperatures, that could cause the outbreak to collapse. But we're not getting the temperatures. Usually an insect outbreak will go on for one to three decades. We're about a decade into this one but at the rate they're moving they could run out of food before then."

Romme is reluctant to attribute the outbreak to global warming. "We can't say that the current outbreak is the product of global warming," he says, "but we can say that this is a harbinger of what could be produced by global warming." The devastation has caused much soul-searching among those who manage the forest, as well as those who have pursued a dream of moving to the pine-covered slopes of Colorado.

"It's not so much an ecological challenge as a social and economic challenge," says Don Carroll, acting supervisor of the White River forest, who heads the Colorado Bark Beetle Cooperative. "If it wasn't for all the people that lived here it wouldn't be much of an issue." He reels off a list of the safety issues raised by the death of the pines, from the fire hazards caused by dead trees to the possibility of timber falling on homes or power lines and the threat posed to the water table.

He is also concerned about extracting the fallen timber from the forest, from trees that have died and fallen and from those that have been logged to prevent them falling.

"We don't have the industry to handle this stuff," he says. "We're not going to get 2x4s out of these trees in the future, so we're looking at new technologies to utilise biomass fuels."

But the forest service has met opposition from those who are against the large-scale felling of trees and it has been difficult to persuade communities - some of them among the US's richest - of the need for mass logging. Vail has committed $1.5m (£770,000) to logging trees in the hope that it will be able to retain some of its green mountainside.
... ...
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Mar, 2007 11:15 am
In 1983 you didn't have a bunch of people trying to stir up a panic over global warming. The science may be a bit less distorted back then.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Mar, 2007 11:17 am
Foxfyre wrote:
In 1983 you didn't have a bunch of people trying to stir up a panic over global warming. The science may be a bit less distorted back then.


Well, if you really want to stay at 1983-science standards, it's your choice.
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Mar, 2007 11:23 am
The pine beetle is simply another balance in nature, Walter. Do not panic. Weak trees succumb, healthy ones don't. Don't worry about waking up one day with all trees dead.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Mar, 2007 11:24 am
If you can show how the knowledge of cyclical bark beetle was less on point in 1983 you'll have a point. I was here, however, and I know how much concern there was then especially when ornamental trees were dying out. That was when almost all of the Ponderosa pines in big chunks of the Manzano Mountains near Albuquerque died out and the native pinon, cedar, and juniper, all more resistent to the bark beetles, began encroaching into areas where they had not grown in anybody's memory. They do know the beetles tend to do more damage in managed forests where forest fires are quickly extinguished and the natural small burns no longer occur. There are more trees, but they are not as strong and tough as they were when there were fewer trees per acre.

Maybe global warming has hastened the current cycle of bark beetles. I don't have a clue. And I would bet a steak dinner, nobody else has a clue about that either. I do know they are taking and will continue to take a terrible toll on the trees. And then they go into a kind of recession and the trees come back.

Such is how it has been for many millenia in this part of the world.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Mar, 2007 11:34 am
I wrote:

Well, I don't like it either if everything is related to climate change.

And the quoted persons in the Guardian article don't say different
Quote:

"The current outbreak is so far along that there's nothing much that can be done," says Bill Romme, professor of fire ecology at Colorado state university and lead author of a report into the infestation published in November. "If we get a period of bitter cold temperatures, that could cause the outbreak to collapse. But we're not getting the temperatures. Usually an insect outbreak will go on for one to three decades. We're about a decade into this one but at the rate they're moving they could run out of food before then."

Romme is reluctant to attribute the outbreak to global warming. "We can't say that the current outbreak is the product of global warming," he says, "but we can say that this is a harbinger of what could be produced by global warming." The devastation has caused much soul-searching among those who manage the forest, as well as those who have pursued a dream of moving to the pine-covered slopes of Colorado.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Mar, 2007 12:27 pm
Walter, U.S. forests are generally not as well managed as those in Germany. They tend to be densely packed with young trees and covered with considerable ground cover growth. These are the results of inadequate management and a blanket prohibitin on logging - even to thin out the growth in many arreas. A result is that they are much more prone to fires and some forms of insect and parasite infestation. Our annual losses to both are very large, but various environkental groupd fiercely resist any effort to construct access roads or thin the growth to create more natural and stable conditions.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Mar, 2007 12:29 pm
I've seen some hundred square miles of forests in Colorado myself :wink:
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Mar, 2007 12:46 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
Walter, U.S. forests are generally not as well managed as those in Germany. They tend to be densely packed with young trees and covered with considerable ground cover growth. These are the results of inadequate management and a blanket prohibitin on logging - even to thin out the growth in many arreas. A result is that they are much more prone to fires and some forms of insect and parasite infestation. Our annual losses to both are very large, but various environkental groupd fiercely resist any effort to construct access roads or thin the growth to create more natural and stable conditions.


A stark illustration of that was when the Sierra Club and other environmental groups refused to allow any logging or thinning of the trees in the national forests surrounding Los Alamos NM, the fire in 2000 totally destroyed many square miles of beautiful forest as well as destroying 235 homes and damaging many others. The environmental wackos wouldn't even allow folks to go into the area to collect unburned wood for firewood and clear space for new trees to grow back more quickly as that 'wouldn't be natural'.

Did they learn their lesson? Nope. So now the bark beetle is attacking the dense stands of trees that the fire missed and more trees will sucuumb than would probably have otherwise been the case.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Mar, 2007 01:00 pm
So here again wikipedia is wrong as well as other websites.

Thanks for those infos, Foxfyre.
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hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Mar, 2007 01:31 pm
A NOTE ON FOREST FIRES IN CANADA
--------------------------------------------
as the article below points out , fires in canadian forests are part of an ecological cycle and should not always be suppressed .
by suppressing all fires at an early stage , the accumulation of dead brush etc will be encouraged , so that when a fire eventually does take hold , it will feed on much of the accumulated brush and really get the fire going .
it seems to be far better to let small fires burn to get rid of such brush , since many trees will withstand moderate fires without much problem and forests will regenarate quickly .
some trees , such as DOUGLAS FIR, require ground that has been prepared and opened up by fire for optimum regeneration, but some individuals must survive to supply seed.
so while forest fires near human settlements may be a danger to those living there , the majority of forest fires in canada pose little danger to humans .
hbg


Quote:
Fire Ecology and Economics

Fire, along with CLIMATE and SOIL, is one of the three primary natural factors that have shaped the present Canadian forest. Much of this forest is, in its natural state, ecologically dependent on recycling by random periodic fire for its long-term stable existence on the landscape. Exceptions to this pattern include the southeastern hardwood forest, forests in the wetter areas of the east and west coasts, and forested bogs and swamps in general. In the boreal forest, for example, the main tree species are black SPRUCE, jack PINE, lodgepole pine, trembling ASPEN, and white BIRCH, all of which are adapted to regenerate even after all individuals over a large area have been killed by fire. Aspen suckers directly from its root systems, while other hardwoods sprout from the base of dead trees. Jack and lodgepole pines and black spruce store live seed in their crowns for years, only shedding them after the cones are opened by heat from a fire.
Other prominent species, such as red and white pine, white spruce and DOUGLAS FIR, require ground that has been prepared and opened up by fire for optimum regeneration, but some individuals must survive to supply seed. In pre-European times ignition was mainly by lightning, and, without control, perhaps two to three times as much area burned annually as at present. Ecologically, then, fire is neither good nor bad, but simply an environmental necessity for the perpetuation of the forest in its natural state.

Economically, fire competes with the forest industry for the annual tree growth on which the industry is based. Some high-value fire-killed timber is recovered, but salvage is impractical on the large scale. Of the 2.5 million ha burned annually on the average, about 30% is classed as stocked, productive forest. However, no commonly accepted way of evaluating this economic loss directly has yet been devised. A better approach has been to analyse the indirect effect of forest fire on the annual timber supply from the whole forest; the fire-killed timber itself then turns out to be a red herring. Based on several such analyses, it is probable that, across the boreal forest, the current level of fire incidence depresses the potential ideal annual timber supply by about 15%. This effect would be somewhat less in our more southerly forests.

As fire-control efforts are increased, it costs more and more to reduce the annual burned area by any given amount. Theoretically, the ideal position would be the point at which the cost of further reduction in burned area just equalled the value of the corresponding increase in timber supply (see FOREST ECONOMICS). Other forest uses are also taken into consideration, and the safety of forest towns is a primary concern.

The ecological realities of fire create a dilemma in large natural parks and other unmanaged areas, because certain kinds of forests cannot be maintained in perpetuity in the absence of fire. The administrators of Canada's national PARKS are well aware of this problem, and are developing operational combinations of fire control and prescribed fire to cope with it. The interaction of ecological and economic factors complicates forest-fire management in general, and debate is continuous about the optimum level of fire-control effort. The Canadian Forestry Association along with the provincial forestry departments carry out fire-prevention programs aimed at educating people about their responsibilities toward the forest. Whatever the complexity of the forest fire picture, the rule "do not start forest fires" remains as valid as ever for the individual citizen.


link to various articles on forest management :
...FORES FIRE MANAGEMENT IN CANADA...
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Mar, 2007 01:40 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:
So here again wikipedia is wrong as well as other websites.

Thanks for those infos, Foxfyre.


????? What brought that on?
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Mar, 2007 01:49 pm
I agree with you hamburger. A natural forest includes burnt out areas; areas of immature growth; and areas populated by relatively low densities of large trees that have survived numerous ground level fires that destroyed underbrush and immature trees. In the large this is a stable ecosystem.

We invest considerable resources in firefighting that are rather effective in snuffing out early ground level fires. In addition environmentalists effectively resist the construction of access roads and the selective thinning of the forest. The result is densely-packed, smaller trees and intense undergrowth. This yields fuel-laden ground level growth very susceptable to various infestations. In addition, when a fire finally develops it burns not only at ground level, but the trees themselves, leaving a wasteland with reduced capability for regrowth.

Germany, in particular has long been very effective in the active managemebnt of their forests. Selective harvesting of trees and clearing of excess undergrowth has yielded them large healthy forests, generally far less susceptible to tree-destroying fires and various infestations.
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