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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 29 Jan, 2007 10:01 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Global warming is not some conspiratorial hoax:
Quote:
The IPCC recognises that there are many "positive feedbacks" in the climate system - more apparently than the negative feedbacks that tend to modulate climate change - which could make matters worse as levels of carbon dioxide and global temperatures continue to rise. Some of these feedbacks are pretty well understood, but many are not. And there may even be some that we don't even know about. This is one of the reasons why there are still many levels of uncertainty when it comes to the future. The IPCC recognises this in the terminology of probability - "virtually certain" for instance means 99 per cent probability, while "likely" means 66 per cent probability.


Walter, how come the sea level rise prediction seems to be going down fast? I love to read their descriptions of certainty. Did they clear their descriptions of the terms used with professional mathematicians or statiticians? Just wondering. Oh well, it makes for good comedy and a good laugh. Humor is healthy, I hope you know?

"The new assessment predicts a sea level rise this century of less than 50 cm, as compared to a prediction of 9-88 cm in the 2001 assessment. "

The above quote from the following:
http://global-warming.accuweather.com/?partner=accuweather&traveler=0
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 29 Jan, 2007 11:40 pm
I suppose, you can read it completely when published on February 2.

I'm rather sure, however, you'll go on disagreeing afterwards.

At least, it will give you some more good laughs.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Jan, 2007 01:23 am
okie wrote:
Walter, how come the sea level rise prediction seems to be going down fast?

How about because new research is in, and as a result the range of uncertainty has narrowed? This is how science is supposed to work; it's a good thing, no need to get sarcastic about it.

And by the way, they're not predictions, they're projections. The IPCC is well aware of the uncertainties in this business, unlike some journalists who spin its reports for sensationalism.
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miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Jan, 2007 04:15 am
Thomas wrote:
And by the way, they're not predictions, they're projections.
Very often, the published range are actuallypredictions, given for a doubling of GHG (the infamous "sensitivity", ie an increase from 280 to 560 pmm): for example, the 2-4,5°C range is a prediction. When the predicted sea rises are calculated for 2x or 4x preindustrial atmospheric GHG concentrations, they are prediction (ie independant from manmade emissions scenarios).

The IPCC lumps together prediction and projection to confuse laymen about the huge incertainties afflicting climate models now and still for years if ever in the future. Apparently with great success.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Jan, 2007 04:19 am
miniTAX wrote:
The IPCC lumps together prediction and projection to confuse laymen about the huge incertainties afflicting climate models now and still for years if ever in the future.

Says you, without any citation from any IPCC report to back it up. The sealevel rise I talked about earlier is clearly labelled as a projection, as are the statements about future climate change. (Hence the title of the chapter: Projections of future climate change.)
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Jan, 2007 09:50 am
Thomas wrote:
okie wrote:
Walter, how come the sea level rise prediction seems to be going down fast?

How about because new research is in, and as a result the range of uncertainty has narrowed? This is how science is supposed to work; it's a good thing, no need to get sarcastic about it.

And by the way, they're not predictions, they're projections. The IPCC is well aware of the uncertainties in this business, unlike some journalists who spin its reports for sensationalism.


I thought sarcasm was acceptable in these parts, Thomas? Surprised

And maybe you could take the time to describe the difference to all of us here between a "projection" and a "prediction?" An okie would love to hear it. I will try to learn, Thomas. I am warning you though, I am under the pre-conceived notion that "scientists" are making these "predictions" or "projections" based on something.
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woiyo
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Jan, 2007 09:58 am
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Jan, 2007 10:16 am
okie wrote:
I thought sarcasm was acceptable in these parts, Thomas? Surprised

Your sarcasm is perfectly acceptable, it's just not making sense to me -- there's nothing to be sarcastic about.

okie wrote:
And maybe you could take the time to describe the difference to all of us here between a "projection" and a "prediction?" An okie would love to hear it. I will try to learn, Thomas. I am warning you though, I am under the pre-conceived notion that "scientists" are making these "predictions" or "projections" based on something.

To project is to extrapolate historic trends into the future. See Webster's relevant definition of projection: "9 : an estimate of future possibilities based on a current trend ". To predict, on the other hand, is to "foretell on the basis of observation, experience, or scientific reason" (Webster). Predictions and projections, then, are both based on empirical evidence. But predictions state much more confidently than projections what the future will actually bring. Note the difference between "to fortell" and "to estimate future possibilities"

The scientists participating in the IPCC consistently label their statements about the future as "projections". They are careful not to oversell their message. The scientists at the IPCC are not a worthwile target for your sarcasm. Sensational journalism about the IPCC would be. They're the ones bringing all the spin into the global warming debate.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Jan, 2007 10:18 am
woiyo wrote:
An opposing point of view.

Source please?
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Jan, 2007 10:44 am
Thomas, so now it seems a "projection" leaves an escape route for the "scientists" engaged in this exercise in futility, otherwise known as "computer modeling? My conclusion, their projections are not worth a hill of beans if they can't have the guts to make a "prediction" from them. Even meteorologists make predictions, which routinely never happen, so a "projection" is even worse than that I guess.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Jan, 2007 10:46 am
Thomas wrote:
woiyo wrote:
An opposing point of view.

Source please?


I couldn't find a source for that quotation, but from another website some quote by the authors:

Quote:
Singer and Avery say that the science of the natural cycle runs counter to what many believe and fear will happen as a result of man-made global warming:

Wild species won't become extinct in our warming because they've been through at least 600 previous warmings, including the Holocene Warming just 5,000 years ago that was much warmer than today.

The seas won't rise to drown New York before the next cooling, because 90 percent of the world's remaining ice is in the melt-resistant Antarctic. Even a 5 degree C warming would decrease its ice mass by only 1.5 percent, over centuries.

Warming won't bring famine, because it brings what crops like - longer growing seasons, more sunlight, and few untimely frosts. More CO2 also stimulates plants' growth, and enhances their water use efficiency.

"We hope our book will help calm the rampant hysteria about global warming and the flawed Greenhouse models," emphasizes Avery. "We should be using our resources and technology to find the best ways to adapt to the inevitable but moderate warming to come, not to study one climate model after another, scare people to death, and pass crippling 'environmental' legislation that would deny the world the economic growth it needs to overcome poverty, the greatest problem of all."
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Jan, 2007 10:47 am
okie wrote:
My conclusion, their projections are not worth a hill of beans if they can't have the guts to make a "prediction" from them.

It's a free Web. Conclude whatever you want.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Jan, 2007 10:57 am
Found it meanwhile but due to critical errors couldn't include it my above response anymore:

Center for Global Food Issues
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Jan, 2007 11:35 am
Quote:
White House Stonewalling Release Of Climate Change Documents

Today, the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee is holding a hearing to investigate "political interference in the work of government climate change scientists." In the days leading up to the hearing, the committee requested documents from the White House Council on Environmental Quality "hoping to use them to underscore the suggestion that the administration has a habit of editing scientific reports to downplay the effects of global warming." But according to CongressDaily, the White House is refusing to turn over the documents:

By presstime Monday, documents that were requested as recently as last week and as far back as six months ago had not been provided to the committee.

"Right now, the administration's reaction doesn't make a whole lot of sense," Waxman's chief of staff Phil Schiliro said Monday afternoon. "We've been trying to get information that we believe the committee should have for six months now. We don't understand why it hasn't been provided; this isn't top secret information."

A spokesman for Oversight and Government Reform ranking member Thomas Davis, R-Va., also sounded miffed about the difficulty in obtaining documents. "We're still trying to get them and not happy about it," the spokesman said.

Even without the documents, the hearing will be a strong indictment of the administration's politicization of climate science.

The Union of Concerned Scientists and the Government Accountability Project said they would present " new evidence of suppression and manipulation of climate science" (link,,, http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1153AP_Congress_Climate.html?source=mypi ) before the committee. Drew Shindell of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies will testify about a "now-defunct 2004 requirement that NASA press officers listened in whenever NASA scientists spoke with reporters, either on the telephone or in person." Rick Piltz, who resigned in 2005 from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program will speak about White House interference with climate change reports and "questionable reviews of scientific research."
http://thinkprogress.org/2007/01/30/waxman-climate-reports/
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Jan, 2007 12:27 pm
Thomas wrote:
woiyo wrote:
An opposing point of view.

Source please?


Appears to be this... http://www.cgfi.org/cgficommentary/two-new-books-confirm-global-warming-is-natural-moderate
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Jan, 2007 02:13 pm
Thomas wrote:
okie wrote:
My conclusion, their projections are not worth a hill of beans if they can't have the guts to make a "prediction" from them.

It's a free Web. Conclude whatever you want.

Wouldn't that be your conclusion, Thomas? After all, if you cannot make a reliable "prediction" from a "projection," what good is the projection? I can only guess at the art of splitting hairs between the two terms because doing so seems superfluous to me, but my wild guess is that apparently the "projections" do not incorporate enough data, the right kind of data, or the correct data, otherwise the projections should be indicative of what is predicted to happen. This point may seem like a minor one, but it does serve to illustrate what the scientists themselves truly believe, and it tells me the proponents of global warming themselves aren't sure of hardly anything. Are the projections worth the paper they are printed on?
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Jan, 2007 02:32 pm
Differences between "prediction" and "projection" are - at least here in Germany and Europe - done in academic works in various sciences. At least in those I know better, namely history and social work sciences.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Jan, 2007 02:33 pm
blatham wrote:
Thomas wrote:
woiyo wrote:
An opposing point of view.

Source please?


Appears to be this... http://www.cgfi.org/cgficommentary/two-new-books-confirm-global-warming-is-natural-moderate

Appears to be indeed. Who would have thought? Grace Terzian of the Hudson Institute writes a rave review for Fred Singer of the Hudson Institute and Dennis Singer of the Hudson Institute. According to Google Scholar, two of the three author have never published any peer-reviewed research on the issue. (Avery, an economist, is the exception. He has several publications in respectable journals.)

Why am I not surprised?
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Jan, 2007 02:34 pm
The pro and contra Global Warming/Climate Change media reports are sometimes really more than funny!

In today's (London) Evening Standard [West End Final, page 23] for example, you can see this

http://i5.tinypic.com/34yppwp.jpg

Water meters were invented in 1851 by (Carl) Wilhelm Siemens in ... London. (In general use in Germany since 1858.)

Not related to any climate changes or warmings but only to meter the taken water. As the name indicates.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Jan, 2007 02:36 pm
okie wrote:
Thomas wrote:
okie wrote:
My conclusion, their projections are not worth a hill of beans if they can't have the guts to make a "prediction" from them.

It's a free Web. Conclude whatever you want.

Wouldn't that be your conclusion, Thomas?

No it wouldn't. I'm not as quick as you to jump from "it's a projection, not a prediction" to "it isn't worth the paper it is printed on."
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