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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 25 Sep, 2005 03:54 pm
Emails, yet. LOL
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 25 Sep, 2005 03:59 pm
The things you learn on A2K..... or have to look up at least...

Quote:
How and Why Were Scientific Journals Created?

A Social Registry of Inventions and Innovations
Henry Oldenburg created the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London in 1665. Unlike the Journal des sçavans in Paris, the London publication did not aim so much at broadcasting news to the emerging Republic of Natural Philosophy as it tried to set itself up as the arbiter of innovations. Similar to a land registry, Phil Trans, as it is often familiarly called, wanted to act as the reference work that would allow assigning intellectual paternity to the right individual for all to see. In the 17th century, this question of intellectual paternity was the object of much attention for several reasons:...

With Phil Trans, all this began to change. A kind of co-optations system based on peer review began to emerge, which bestowed honor and visibility to those whose works were deemed of sufficient value to be duly registered in the printed registry. The multiplication of printed copies and their dissemination throughout Europe ensured the validity of the claim. In short, Oldenburg had invented the record of a kind of parliament of science. Through peer review, it could confer a form of intellectual nobility upon individuals. Thus was established the game of science, whereby giving away what one had discovered was paradoxically the best way to ensure one's intellectual ownership of it.


source
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Sun 25 Sep, 2005 04:13 pm
blatham wrote:
Actually, that's not going to work either. There'll be no value in me reading Lomborg's book without following up with the various critiques of it. My interest in these matters, and my expertise in the related sciences, aren't sufficient to that dreary-sounding task.

Well, your interest in these matters evidently did prove sufficient to start this thread. And the value in reading Lomborgs book is in reading what the other side is actually saying. Not what a blog comment on a Salon article about the other side is saying. Finding out whether the other side says the truth is also interesting But even without it, you get quite a lot of value just from reading about your opposition's positions from the primary sources.

blatham wrote:
Pick me another book. Something by Scalia would be fine. Brock is the boy for you though.

You said you have already read Scalia. So how about Randy Barnett's "Restoring the lost Constitution"? It was published by a Republican noise machine called the Princeton University Press.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Sun 25 Sep, 2005 04:16 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
What the hell do you expect me to do?

Nothing in particular, to be honest. I thought we were arguing about our policy preferences about global warming and its impact. So I guess I expected that you continue doing that. If you're not interested, no problem.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 25 Sep, 2005 04:39 pm
Thomas, Quit making it so personal. I have no influence on the world's use of energy or the economies of the world. Get real, for crying out loud! If you can.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 25 Sep, 2005 04:47 pm
Thomas wrote:
blatham wrote:
Actually, that's not going to work either. There'll be no value in me reading Lomborg's book without following up with the various critiques of it. My interest in these matters, and my expertise in the related sciences, aren't sufficient to that dreary-sounding task.

Well, your interest in these matters evidently did prove sufficient to start this thread. And the value in reading Lomborgs book is in reading what the other side is actually saying. Not what a blog comment on a Salon article about the other side is saying. Finding out whether the other side says the truth is also interesting But even without it, you get quite a lot of value just from reading about your opposition's positions from the primary sources.

You misunderstand. I have neither the time nor the interest to ground myself sufficiently in the mathematics and the sciences necessary to evaluate whether the writer is doing a snowjob on himself or on me, or whether he might be mistaken but with benign intent. I certainly do have an interest in environment/climate matters, but wend my way through by sussing out, so well as I can, what the speaker's interests seem to be. If a group is funded by the energy industry, I am going to trust it exactly like I would trust a group of lung doctors who are being paid by the tobacco industry. Another group of such doctors, working independently at universities around the world, I'll trust rather more.

blatham wrote:
Pick me another book. Something by Scalia would be fine. Brock is the boy for you though.

You said you have already read Scalia. So how about Randy Barnett's "Restoring the lost Constitution"? It was published by a Republican noise machine called the Princeton University Press.

I have, but no books by him. Barnett sounds fine. Barnett and Brock, then?
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sun 25 Sep, 2005 06:07 pm
Foxfyre wrote (after a fairly lengthy post re a true scientist's opinion related to global warming and concerns re some of the data submitted to date by the scientific community)

Quote:
It just seems to me that before we expend enormous national treasure, jeopardize the economy, and compromise our chosen lifestyles, we should make sure we're not basing policy on junk science. Remember that the scientific journals all once agreed that the earth was flat and the sun revolved around it.


Note that my comment was appropriate for the post, the topic, and the question raised by it. The comment was to illustrate that a consensus of scientific opinion does not always universally settle a matter.

To which Blatham responded
Quote:
Expending enormous national treasure on killing, however, is not problematic. What's the appropriate term here? Junk compassion? Junk morality? Junk christianity?


Note there is no reference to the substance of my post, but a complete swerve off the topic to insert an attack re a totally different and unrelated subject.

To which Foxfyre responded
Quote:
I wonder if there will be a day on A2K that the Left doesn't build strawmen in lieu of actually discussing an issue.


To which Parados responded
Quote:
I had a good laugh at you for this one Fox, after reading this from you earlier..

I don't think you can find any time in history that scientific journals all agreed that the earth was flat and the sun revolved around it. "Scientific journals" didn't appear until long after Copernicus.

Look to your own straw before you accuse others


Can you find anyplace where I even suggested that scientific journals all agree? I was using a metaphor. Do you understand that concept or do you need it explained to you?

Now please point out any strawman included anywhere in that post or show how I was not offering an opinion on the subject of global warming.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 26 Sep, 2005 02:20 am
cicerone imposter wrote:
Thomas, Quit making it so personal. I have no influence on the world's use of energy or the economies of the world. Get real, for crying out loud! If you can.

What? And acknowledge that we can't solve the world's problems on A2K? You are asking too much. Never! Razz

blatham wrote:
You misunderstand. I have neither the time nor the interest to ground myself sufficiently in the mathematics and the sciences necessary to evaluate whether the writer is doing a snowjob on himself or on me, or whether he might be mistaken but with benign intent. I certainly do have an interest in environment/climate matters, but wend my way through by sussing out, so well as I can, what the speaker's interests seem to be. If a group is funded by the energy industry, I am going to trust it exactly like I would trust a group of lung doctors who are being paid by the tobacco industry. Another group of such doctors, working independently at universities around the world, I'll trust rather more.

Not to belabor the point -- but Lomborg, when he wrote his book, was funded by the university of Aarhus, Denmark. He received no funding from any right-wing lobby group. Sound snow-job-prone to you?

But very well, it's Barnett and Brock then. Deal.
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AngeliqueEast
 
  1  
Reply Mon 26 Sep, 2005 02:42 am
Book Mark
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 26 Sep, 2005 04:52 am
Quote:
Not to belabor the point -- but Lomborg, when he wrote his book, was funded by the university of Aarhus, Denmark. He received no funding from any right-wing lobby group. Sound snow-job-prone to you?

And not to belabor a point previously unbelabored...I wasn't referring to him specifically (nor any other individual), merely fessing up to my less-than-satisfactory depth of study on these issues (though noting your use of the past-tense above).

I linked the Dworkin essay earlier. Here's a little piece on a new book by Justice Breyer. I heard him speak a couple of months ago as part of a panel discussion. Sheesh. Whip-smart and very, very funny. Fell in love with the fellow.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 26 Sep, 2005 06:18 am
blatham wrote:
I linked the Dworkin essay earlier. Here's a little piece on a new book by Justice Breyer. I heard him speak a couple of months ago as part of a panel discussion. Sheesh. Whip-smart and very, very funny. Fell in love with the fellow.

Oh, I did read the Dworkin piece! I disagree with about 80% of his opinions, but it was an interesting and thoughtful article; not to mention a very thorough parsing of justice Roberts' testimony in his confirmation hearings. Thanks for the link! Breyer's book has been on its way over the Atlantic for at least a week now. Did you see his debate with Scalia on C-Span.org? It's an entertaining and intelligent back-and-forth on both sides, well worth watching no matter which of the two you root for.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 26 Sep, 2005 07:23 am
Quote:
Description of Straw Man
The Straw Man fallacy is committed when a person simply ignores a person's actual position and substitutes a distorted, exaggerated or misrepresented version of that position. This sort of "reasoning" has the following pattern:

Person A has position X.
Person B presents position Y (which is a distorted version of X).
Person B attacks position Y.
Therefore X is false/incorrect/flawed.
source better source


Quote:
Foxfyre wrote (after a fairly lengthy post re a true scientist's opinion related to global warming and concerns re some of the data submitted to date by the scientific community)

Quote:
It just seems to me that before we expend enormous national treasure, jeopardize the economy, and compromise our chosen lifestyles, we should make sure we're not basing policy on junk science. Remember that the scientific journals all once agreed that the earth was flat and the sun revolved around it.


Note that my comment was appropriate for the post, the topic, and the question raised by it. The comment was to illustrate that a consensus of scientific opinion does not always universally settle a matter.

To which Blatham responded
Quote:
Expending enormous national treasure on killing, however, is not problematic. What's the appropriate term here? Junk compassion? Junk morality? Junk christianity?


Note there is no reference to the substance of my post, but a complete swerve off the topic to insert an attack re a totally different and unrelated subject.

To which Foxfyre responded
Quote:
I wonder if there will be a day on A2K that the Left doesn't build strawmen in lieu of actually discussing an issue.


OK. So the question is, did I advance a counterfeit of your argument in order to attack it instead? Well, what is or was your argument? Generally, that public policy decisions re the environment which have serious economic consequences ought to be prudently made using science that is up to snuff. Well, sure, but who'd argue against that?

I could have set up a counterfeit (a straw-man). I could have said..."Foxfyre wants every scientist in the world to agree that the related science is 100% certain and she wants every economist to agree that the costs of retaining the status quo will be significantly greater than instituting some Kyoto style mandated policy regimens." Of course, you didn't say that.

More exactly then, what did you say? You first noted some comments from a scientist (we get them second hand from you...fine, we'll trust you to duplicate him accurately) who had informed opinions on the matter. You then used the authority of his opinions (and that's a valid use of authority in itself) to argue that if there is such a range of disparity in opinion among the scientific community, then we ought to step very carefully because of the financial consequences. Again, what's to be argued against here? It sounds entirely reasonable.

But what if your scientist you bumped into had said the opposite (as many scientists do)...that the evidences have become, in his view, now so compelling that human activity, if continued, present a high probability of serious and potentially severe consequences to the world's low altitude coastal areas due to sea level rise and the liklihood, or high possibility, of massive agricultural disruptions broadly across the world from temperature/rainfall changes over the next fifty years? What if your conversation was overheard by an economist and he sat down to join you in conversation and he began projecting the possible dollar costs of, say, large social disruptions (famines, disease, war for resources, destabilized governments, etc). What then if a minister joined you too, and what if he pointed out the moral discrepancy between millions of dead in the third world even while we, here, insisted on not "compromising our chosen lifestyles" (large SUVs with purple leather seats, massive waste and pollution, fostering child labor and oppressive if stable local governments,

Which is the better argument? There's no correct answer to that question because of the "if" component. But having argued numerous issues with you previously, I have certainty approaching 100% that you will simply not veer appreciably from whatever Bush and his administration say about the science, about the probabilities, and about economics. You set up your argument such that it sounds reasonable, and it is so far as the "if" portions remain uninvestigated or unchallenged, but you can't be counted on to do the second step with any integrity. Sorry, that's just true. If Bush says the costs will be too damaging, you'll say that too. If Bush says that he's changed his mind and some damages will be likely and we ought to tighten our belts to prepare, you'll say that too. If Bush says X is good science and Y is junk science, you'll say that too. Your position is entrenched, running in tandem with your chosen Authority, and argument with you becomes an exercise in time-wasting.

So what do I do, or what does someone else do, when you forward such an 'argument' in this community? There seems to be nothing for it but to point to the inconsistencies, fallacies, and ommissions in what you write and argue. And to point to the same failings in the words and policies or you chosen Authority. That's not an example of straw-man. It's not even an example of ad hominem.

One hopes to shake you out of your intellectual subservience but failing that, one strives to demonstrate that you get lots wrong as a consequence of that subservience and that much of it represents a serious danger to liberty and justice and democracy for the community.

So, when you throw out the threat of "expending enormous national treasure" from worrying about and belt-tightening to prevent the possibility of, say, the unimaginable suffering around the world's coastal regions which might soon arise, then I'll contrast that with the REALITY of "expending enormous national treasure" to mount an unecessary and deeply dangerous war which will/has blown thousands of innocent children and women to hell.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 26 Sep, 2005 07:28 am
thomas

Thanks!! Have not seen it nor had I heard of it. I'll zoom there momentarily.

You know, I'd love to take Dworkin's piece and then do a good analysis/debate on the arguments there but with a more tempered crowd than these typical free-for-all alley fights, say with joe and debra and some others. Not sure how we might pull that off though unless we hire a team of assassins to cull.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 26 Sep, 2005 07:42 am
Damn!!! Not archived.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 26 Sep, 2005 11:21 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
I'm not that sure about it, c.i.: the earth isn't older than 6,000 years - how could you judge such?


Contrary to popular opinion, the universe evolved in 6 days of 2.4 billion earth-years each. That's a total of 14.4 billion earth-years. The earth actually evolved within the last two of those 6 days. Humans evolved within the last day of those 6 days. More specifically, humans evolved within the last 7 seconds of the 6th day. Currently, we are living within the 1st second of the 7th day.:wink:

Stop wasting your time: more evolving ahead! Cool
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 26 Sep, 2005 11:58 am
repeating ... More specifically, humans evolved within the last 7 seconds of the 6th day. Currently, we are living within the 1st second of the 7th day. :wink: ...

So within the 1st second of the 7th day (total length also predicted to be 2.4 billion earth-years), humans have been causing earth warming. Within the last milli-second the population of the USA has caused 99% of this earth warming.

Rumor has it that the sun is envious! Crying or Very sad
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Mon 26 Sep, 2005 12:06 pm
so what day is it where you are?
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Mon 26 Sep, 2005 12:13 pm
Quote:
Not sure how we might pull that off though unless we hire a team of assassins to cull.


There goes the latent violence again.
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roger
 
  1  
Reply Mon 26 Sep, 2005 12:44 pm
Still the seventh day? That's Sunday. What am I doing at work.

'Scuse the digression, Bernie?
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Mon 26 Sep, 2005 12:54 pm
yep sorry Rog

you are in Monday now and Mondays last

2.4 billion years

according to Ican
0 Replies
 
 

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