Catalonia wants out; Spain says no

MADRID (Reuters) - Just one in seven people from Catalonia believe the current standoff between Barcelona and Madrid will end in independence for the region while more than two thirds think the process has been bad for the economy, a survey showed on Monday.

Spain’s central government took control of the region after local leaders staged a poll on secession, slated as illegal by the Constitutional Court, and then passed a unilateral declaration of independence through the parliament. In response, Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy fired the government, stripped the region of its autonomous status and called a regional election for Dec. 21.

On Sunday, the first part of the GAD3 survey showed that pro-independence parties would win the election but may not gain the parliamentary majority needed to continue with secession.

Fifteen percent said they believed the process would end in an independent state, according to part two of survey of 1,233 people conducted between Oct. 30 and Nov. 3 and published in La Vanguard newspaper on Monday.

Optimism that a negotiated solution would be found was low, with just over a fifth thinking the crisis would lead to talks between regional authorities and Madrid.

The push for independence has dragged Spain in to its worst political crisis since its return to democracy four decades ago and has deeply divided the country, fuelling anti-Spanish feelings in Catalonia and nationalist tendencies elsewhere.

The uncertainty has prompted more than 2,000 companies to relocate their legal headquarters out of the region since Oct. 1, while the Bank of Spain said if the conflict persists it could lead to slower growth and job creation.

According to the poll, 67 percent said they believed the process had hurt the economy and almost 40 percent said the company exodus would have a negative affect on growth in the short term.

[...]
Writing in the Guardian, Puigdemont said it was a “colossal outrage” that he and 13 colleagues were being investigated over possible charges including sedition and rebellion in relation to their roles in last month’s declaration of independence.

“Today, the leaders of this democratic project stand accused of rebellion and face the severest punishment possible under the Spanish penal code; the same as for cases of terrorism and murder: 30 years in prison,” he said.

Puigdemont said he doubted that he and his colleagues would get a “fair and independent hearing” and called for “scrutiny from abroad” to help bring the Catalan crisis to a political, rather than judicial, conclusion.

He added: “The Spanish state must honour what was said so many times in the years of terrorism: end violence and we can talk about everything. We, the supporters of Catalan independence, have never opted for violence, on the contrary. But now we find it was all a lie that everything is up for discussion.”
[...]
On Monday, the leader of the biggest party in the Belgian government went much further, saying that Spain’s ruling People’s party – which was founded by a former Franco minister – was a prisoner of its own history.

The N-VA leader, Bart De Wever, told the VRT network: “You know where the past of the People’s party is, and ever more its present, and it is Franco, it is repression, it is jailing people because of their opinion, it is the use of violence against its citizens.”

De Wever, who has called Puigdemont “a friend”, said that what happened next would be up to the courts.

“First, it is a judicial decision, and we have to wait for it,” he said. “So, if there is a decision we will assess the situation. This is not a judicial conflict; it is a political conflict. You solve it with dialogue.”

The Spanish government has denied suggestions that the decision to jail the eight Catalan politicians was politically motivated. Last Friday, the education minister, Íñigo Méndez de Vigo, pointed out the decision had been taken by a judge.

“There is a separation of powers in Spain and what happened yesterday is in the realm of the justice system and beyond the reach of the government,” he said.

On Wednesday, Spain's Constitutional Court officially annulled the Catalan parliament's unilateral declaration of independence from October 27. The court had initially suspended implementation of secession while it studied the legality of the vote following a challenge by Spain's government.
"The declaration of independence of October 27 has been declared unconstitutional and void," a court spokeswoman said in a statement released Wednesday afternoon.
[...]
A general strike called by pro-independence activists caused transport chaos on Wednesday.

Protesters shut down dozens of major roads and disrupted public transport after two civic groups and a small labor union called the strike.

Supporters of secession chanted "freedom for political prisoners" and scuffled with police who tried to remove them.

Spain's two main unions did not back the strike, which was not reported have had any major effect on industry or tourism. However, more than 50 road routes were briefly halted, causing traffic headaches, and dozens of local and high speed train lines were shut down.

Independence campaigners are seeking to regain political momentum after failing to agree on a joint ticket for December's election. Deposed President Carles Puigdemont's center-right Catalan European Democratic Party and the Republican Left of Vice President Oriol Junqueras will contest the election as separate parties. They could still form a coalition after the election, but polling and projections showed they would have won more seats had they run together.
...
On Wednesday, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said he hoped new elections would usher in "a period of calm" and business as usual for the region.
"I'm hoping for massive participation in the election ... and, after that, we'll return to normality," he told the Spanish parliament in Madrid.

A recent poll for Barcelona-based newspaper La Vanguardia suggested the ERC could win 45 or 46 seats and the PDeCat 14 or 15. That would leave them needing the CUP’s help to reach the 68-seat threshold.

Another poll - for the conservative newspaper La Razón - showed pro-independence parties would capture the most votes though still fall three seats short of a majority.

Madrid is paving the way for Catalonia to be given the power to collect and manage its own taxes, similar to the system enjoyed by the autonomous Basque country, in an attempt to defuse the crisis over an illegal referendum on independence for the region.

Senior sources in the Spanish government have told the Guardian that although there remains intense opposition within the ruling People’s party (PP) to any future referendum on self-determination, there is a renewed willingness to open discussions on a new fiscal pact under which Catalonia would have greater control of its finances.

Puigdemont has said that Catalans must show their desire for independence at December 21 elections, as he launched his campaign from Belgium. However, the ex-Catalan leader might have to follow the polls from jail.
[...]
The Catalan ex-leader has been in exile in Belgium since late October, when his government declared independence from Spain in a unilateral move that has been vehemently condemned by Madrid and led to its issuing an international arrest warrant for several Catalan lawmakers, including Puigdemont.
[...]
It remains unclear whether Puigdemont will still be in Belgium when the elections take place, as he is waiting on a decision from authorities there on possible extradition to Spain, where he is wanted on charges of rebellion, sedition and misuse of public funds. If Belgium does decide in favor of extradition, he faces jail pending an investigation into the charges.
... ... ...

When Emmanuel Macron won the French elections, Inés Arrimadas was quick to applaud the victory of a “liberal, centrist and pro-European” candidate. If the polls are anything to go by, Arrimadas, the Ciutadans (Citizens) candidate for regional president in next month’s Catalan elections, may emerge as the leader of a Macron-style government in Catalonia.

Much of the rise of Ciutadans in Catalonia can be credited to Arrimadas, who at 36 is the youngest and also the only female candidate to take power in elections called after Madrid sacked the previous administration and imposed direct rule following its declaration of independence.
[...]
A passionate and articulate speaker, she has galvanised the disparate, anti-independence half of the population and is taking votes from both the rightwing People’s party (PP) and the socialists.

According to the polls published so far, Catalonia’s pro- and anti-independence parties are running neck and neck in the run-up to the 21 December election.

Ciutadans are only about one percentage point behind Esquerra Republicana (Republican Left), whose leader, Oriol Junqueras, is in jail remanded on charges of rebellion. The two are polling at about 25% while Together for Catalonia, the party of the deposed president Carles Puigdemont, trails the anti-independence socialist party in fourth place with about 13%.

On current figures, coalitions of pro- or anti-independence parties would be tied on 46%, leaving the leftwing Catalunya en Comú as a potential, though unlikely, kingmaker.
... ... ...

The former Catalan vice-president Oriol Junqueras, former cabinet member Joaquim Forn and two leaders of civic groups have been refused bail, Spain’s supreme court has said.

Six other former members of the Catalan cabinet, detained in custody before an investigation into their part in an illegal unilateral declaration of independence by the regional government on 27 October, were set bail of €100,000 (£88,000).
[...]
On Monday, Spain’s supreme court refused bail for Junqueras, Forn and leaders of the Catalan civic groups Assemblea Nacional Catalana (ANC) and Omnium Cultural, Jordi Sanchez and Jordi Cuixart.

In a court statement, the judge ruled that, while he considered there was no risk the defendants would leave the country, he did believe there was a risk of criminal reiteration.

Campaigning for the election, with Junqueras at the head of the list for his ERC party, begins on Tuesday. Polls have shown that support for independence is running in a dead heat with support for continued unity with Spain.

The judge, Pablo Llarena, said the former president and the Catalan cabinet members in Belgium had shown a willingness to return to Spain while withdrawing the warrants also prevented more than one European jurisdiction overseeing the case.

Court sources however said Spanish arrest warrants were still in force against the five and they would be detained upon arrival in the country. Official campaigning for a 21 December regional election, called after Puigdemont’s government was dissolved, began on Tuesday.

Spain has dropped its international arrest warrant for Catalonia's deposed leader, but he will remain in Belgium. Pro-independence activists have organized a rally in Brussels to draw Europe into its independence fight.

Deposed Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont on Wednesday vowed to remain in exile in Brussels.

Spain dropped its international arrest warrant for Puigdemont on Monday to avoid a lengthy extradition trial, saying it appeared that he and his former ministers were likely to return to Spain to contest the upcoming election in Catalonia.

Puigdemont told reporters he hoped to return to Spain if elected to Catalonia's parliament, but said he was unsure if he would be arrested.
"We have to carefully consider such a decision before taking it,"

Puigdemont said at a press conference in Brussels. "For the moment we will stay here."