1
   

A wish and a prayer for the Ukrainian democrats, please

 
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Dec, 2004 07:32 pm
That was a good post, nimh. I've been watching the progress of the Ukrainian election thinking similar things: That "outsiders" are projecting their own hopes & their own political beliefs onto the situation. Black hats & white hats. Good guys & bad guys. Whereas the reality of the Ukraine is far more complex. I hope the new government has the courage to act in the long-term best interests of Ukrainians, particularly in the daunting task of tackling the economy of the country. It's going to be a long, hard haul.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Dec, 2004 07:41 pm
From the Moscow Times site:

Quote:
OSCE observer approves Ukrainian elections commission' work

Interfax. Monday, Dec. 27, 2004, 4:11 AM Moscow Time

MOSCOW. Dec 27 (Interfax) - Head of the OSCE observers' mission Gert Arens approved the work of Ukraine's elections commissions on all levels during the Ukrainian presidential elections.

Arens especially commended the work of the country's Central Elections Commission, the Ekho Moskvy radio station reported

Yushchenko declares he won elections

Interfax. Monday, Dec. 27, 2004, 4:01 AM Moscow Time

KYIV. Dec 27 (Interfax) - Viktor Yushchenko declared that he has won the Ukrainian presidential elections and called on his supporters to go out onto the Independence Square in the center of Kyiv.

"The first news is - it is done," Yushchenko said in his HQ on Monday morning. "It is a victory of the Ukrainian people, the Ukrainian nation," he added.

Yushchenko noted that a new political year is beginning in Ukraine. "The era of Kuchma, Medvedchuk and Yanukovych is going away, a new era of great democracy is beginning. Dozens of millions of Ukrainians dreamed about it. Today it is fashionable, stylish and beautiful to be a Ukrainian," Yushchenko said.

Yushchenko thanked "free journalists for letting the whole world talk about Ukraine."

The rundown of Interfax items does include Yanukovych's representative's complaints about "systematic violations" and those of Russian State Duma's first Deputy Speaker, who highlighted violations in Western Ukraine; but does not include any item on the reports of violations in Eastern Ukraine that were mentioned side by side with those in Western media.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Dec, 2004 08:06 pm
Also from the Moscow Times, snippeting out from the article covering Putin's press conference last Thursday quotes that together tell a story (for full article click headline):

Quote:
President Lashes Out at the West

[..] In his criticism of the West, Putin mostly focused on the European Union and particularly Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski, who said in a recent newspaper interview that "Russia without Ukraine is better than Russia with Ukraine" for the United States.

[..] "If we interpret this [statement by Kwasniewski] as striving to limit Russia's ability to develop relations with its neighbors, then it means a desire to isolate the Russian Federation," Putin said.

"If that is the case, then the [Western] policy toward Chechnya becomes more understandable ... [as] a policy aimed at establishing elements that would destabilize the Russian Federation," he said.

[..] Hard-liners in Russia have accused Kwasniewski -- who helped mediate talks between Yushchenko and Yanukovych -- of being Washington's proxy in a covert battle being fought over Ukraine. The two candidates square off in a repeat vote Sunday.

[..] Putin denounced "dangerous attempts to solve political issues through nonlegitimate means," in a reference to Ukraine's so-called Orange Revolution -- the well-organized opposition street protests that helped lead to the repeat vote -- and the Rose Revolution in Georgia last year that brought a U.S.-trained lawyer to power.

The president said revolutions in those former Soviet republics had been planned "in other places" and noted that U.S. billionaire philanthropist George Soros is now bankrolling the salaries of senior officials in the Georgian government.

[..] He asserted Russia's right to pursue policies to bring neighboring countries closer to Moscow and said the Kremlin will continue to push forward on a pact to create a common economic space between Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

He also made it clear that Moscow will continue to maintain contacts with separatist regimes in neighboring countries. Asked by a Georgian TV reporter whether trips by Russian officials to mediate talks between rival presidential candidates in separatist Abkhazia was also a case of double standards, Putin said Russia supports Georgia's territorial integrity, but only if Tbilisi accommodates the wishes of ethnic groups.

[..] Most of Putin's domestic policy answers, however, were a reiteration of what he has said before, including his assertion that the elimination of gubernatorial elections will not turn Russia into a unitary state and that there is no crackdown under way on media freedoms. "A decent girl must resist, while a true man must keep insisting," he said, resorting to a phrase he has used before to explain why the authorities keep insisting that some restrictions must be placed on the media.


Not that Putin didn't score some clever points during his press conference, mind you. He made it an art form to return again and again to the issue of double standards. Thus he pointed out, as the Dutch Volkskrant reported, that the US chided the elections in-wartime in Chechnya - but themselves now insist on holding elections in Iraq.

Responding to questions about his decision to abolish elections for governors, he rebutted that he wasn't all too enthusiastic about election arrangements in America either - "do you think the electoral system in the US is faultless?".

Addressing European critics, he pointed out (after cleverly mentioning about Polish President Kweasniewski that "we still know him well from when he was still working for the Komsomol") that (quote Moscow Times):

Quote:
the refusal of OSCE observers to recognize the results of Ukraine's runoff on Nov. 21, combined with their willingness to endorse elections in Afghanistan and Kosovo, show that the West is pursuing a policy of double standards. Those double standards are also applied to human rights issues, he said, pointing out that the EU has pressured Macedonia to set aside a quota for ethnic Albanians in the legislative and executive branches of power but spurned Moscow's requests for a similar quota for the sizable Russian diaspora in the Latvian capital, Riga.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Dec, 2004 08:11 pm
Looks like this is one of those 'may you live in interesting times' times.
0 Replies
 
SerSo
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Dec, 2004 10:09 pm
nimh wrote:
SerSo

It is your take on Moldova/Transnistria that exemplifies as well as any how biased information can indeed, to lend your phrase, "simplify and misinterpret complex and dangerous situations".

It is rife with misinformation, but as such I assume it merely represents the take that was generally presented on the situation in Russian media. Yet that lends a certain irony to your off-hand dismissal that takes from outside Russia that you don't agree with (about a country that's as close to Austria as it is to Russia), must just be "biased".[..]


Nimh, I make no pretence to being the only one who knows the truth. However if I encounter reports that disagree with what I think to be true I simply try to give my counterargument. I admit I can be misinformed. What makes me bitter is any attempt to find enemies.

Frankly speaking, I am not the one whose views simply mirror the opinion generally represented by the Russian media. Fortunately or unfortunately I gave up following it long ago and I find most information which is of interest to me in the Internet. My vision of the Transdniestrian crisis derives from what I heard from my friends who were there in the very beginning and those who sometimes come to Moscow from Moldavia. For instance I heard about televised parliamentary debates in Chisinau where they discussed if Romanian surnames should be subject to declension in the Russian language. Or how a crowd in Tiraspol was about to beat my friends because they did not look like locals and therefore they were taken for those volunteers who had been mobilized by the Popular Front. I did not know very much though about the political developments in Chisinau and Tiraspol after 1992. The facts you have shared here also contributed to my knowledge and I am always grateful to you for posting here even if my opinion does not agree with yours.

Our discussion over the situation in Moldavia in particular and the Russian policy toward the ex-USSR countries in general goes beyond the subject of this thread, hence I do not feel like continuing it here and contest your every statement I find fallible. I would only note that your approach unfortunately lacks understanding of what life used to look like in the early 90's when people merely did not understand what government administers the territory where they lived and also whilst the former Soviet army was falling apart and entire military detachments with all their munitions simply declared themselves as belonging to Russian, Moldavian, Transdniestrian, Ukrainian and other armies.

nimh wrote:
[..]Basically, you are here blaming a democratically elected government that, in the wake of independence, decided that the majority language rather than that of the erstwhile occupiers should be the language of government, for a violent, separatist insurrection, facilitated by the Russian army's covert support.

You are blaming the "hotheads" who dared want to realise the political programme they were elected in on by a persuasive majority for what, on the Dnyestr's left bank, rapidly devolved into a insurrectionist gangster's paradise.[..]

I do actually blame the then government of Moldavia because they thought that having majority behind them they could impose their will on the minority and use military force to make their opponents obey. Such approach could only lead to civil disorder, war and terror. I believe the true democracy implies respect for interests of minorities and should provide mechanisms to avoid violence. The only reason why I mentioned the Transdniestrian crisis here was my desire to demonstrate how ignoring this principle could lead to very undesirable consequences. I really hope for the best and think that people in the Ukraine will be wise enough to hear and understand each other. The fact that until now they relied on the law instead of force makes me optimistic.
0 Replies
 
SerSo
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Dec, 2004 10:11 pm
msolga wrote:
Lash wrote:
I think one of the major news sources (Reuters'...AP?) has called it.

I'll have a look.


Oh , I thought my source was rather "major", too, Lash. :wink:

Here is a link to the official site dedicated to the presidential elections in the Ukraine with the first hand data from the central electoral commission: http://www.cvk.gov.ua/wp0011e
According to the preliminary figures Yushchenko is very likely to win, what makes me think the fraud during the second ballot on November 21 could be actually enormous. Hope they will thoroughly investigate every case of manipulation, punish everyone whose guilt have been proved in due course and eliminate the very possibility to do such things in future.

On the other hand at a slightly lesser turnout the reported percentage of votes given in favour of each candidate in every region (oblast) is almost similar to the results of the November ballot. It does not seem the country has changed up its mind radically and the Ukraine remains deeply divided geographically.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Dec, 2004 10:54 pm
nimh wrote:

Boris Yeltsin was never looked upon too gladly here in Western Europe actually ... the media and most of the politicians here were firmly on the side of much-loved "Gorby". Gorby brought us peace and disarmament, after all, he let Eastern Europe go free. Gorbachev's subsequent drift to the right (ie, towards ever more orthodox communist allies) after 1989 was mostly blinked at and apologized for.

As Gorbachev's challenger, Yeltsin was seen as the irresponsible "elephant in the china cabinet", much too bold. He gained at most a grudging respect after the failed August 1991 coup, but remained portrayed mostly as a bit of a loose cannon, a drinker and of course oh so far removed from the refined intellectuality of Gorbachev. Never mind that Yeltsin at least had the guts to let the Baltic states and other breakaway Soviet republics go and actually call nation-wide free elections; two things Gorbachev ("I am the center") had always refused to do.

Of course, many of the fears about Yeltsin turned out to be well-founded; he was a bit of a loose cannon, and handled his newly acquired power irresponsibly. Still, he was an effective "destroyer" of what needed to be destroyed - the Soviet system; a system Gorbachev (who to the end called himself a communist) could not decisively cut loose from.


Nicely stated. I agree fully.
Quote:

But, re: your point - I don't think Yushchenko evokes in anyone here the kind of idealist fervour a Castro once rallied. There is no starry-eyed, ideologically inspired fellow-travellerdom here. In fact, he'll get a honeymoon of at most a few months before the EU will show him the same "shopping list" of convergence criteria they presented to Kuchma and Kravchuk: economic liberalisation, human rights ... The analysis here is that the EU is actually in a bit of a bind; they obviously want Yushchenko to win and feel that he should - but they're afraid of the imminent hope of EU accession his victory will evoke among Ukrainians, when the EU itself is not at all ready to grant yet another large, poor country on its eastern borders an accession date. At most, the Christian-Democrats want the Ukraine in as counterweight to Turkey - but probably not much sooner ...
…Public opinion here is, as you can imagine, quite suspicious right now of yet more poor newcomers at the door of our prosperous Fortress.

The analogy you hint at is thus a false one. There is no fellow-travellerdom. The "Orange" people in the streets command our sympathy of course, but the movement lacks a clear political "hook" into our own debate. The far left is distrustful of the Ukrainian democrats because they're supported by the Americans, the far right resents the implied future EU enlargement. And middle-of-the-road liberals, christian- and social-democrats, whom the Ukrainian democrats have the most affinity with, by rule ain't so starry-eyed.

…Yushchenko was a compromise candidate from the start. It was about being fed up with a President who bribed, fooled, repressed and conspired, a degeneration of the country's chances of proper modernisation that culminated in massive election fraud and, as it happens, the actual poisoning of the opposition candidate. When people rebel against that, it's not hard to choose sides, even if you do not necessarily have much illusions about the virginal purity of its leader.


That is an interesting and plausible perspective that I had not fully considered. Thanks.

nimh wrote:
georgeob1 wrote:
It would be unfortunate if the European movement now underway ends up alienating both the United States and Russia.

I would submit that the common American-European support and sympathy for the "Orange" uprising is something that in part re-emphasises our common bonds again, that helps bring Europe and the US together again a bit. With Poland, America's new favourite son in Europe, in a star mediator role


I hope this is true, but frankly I doubt it. It has taken a long time for it to develop, but the old viewpoints that prevailed during the past century here have been replaced by something new. There is no longer the prevailing notion that we and the Western European states share the same goals and ambitions. Now the implicit assumption is that we are opponents on the world scene. This is a profound change - no doubt on both sides of the Atlantic, but I believe it goes much deeper here than many Europeans realize.. I fear that it will grow in the years ahead. Certainly I see nothing on the horizon that might dampen it. On the contrary, there are many more issues out there likely to increase the divide..
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Dec, 2004 11:01 pm
I, too, feel as though things can never be the same between the US and Europe.

The relationship is forever altered.

I would imagine both Russia and the EU are strongly compelled to throw in together. Whether or not they have to hold their noses to do so--
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Dec, 2004 08:40 am
Just quickly responding to georgeob1 b/c I had something jotted down on it already ... (So I'm not ignoring your post, SerSo, I'll be back later -- though I would already like to apologize for any impoliteness that may have crept into my previous post to you, as it was undeserved.)

georgeob1 wrote:
nimh wrote:
I would submit that the common American-European support and sympathy for the "Orange" uprising is something that in part re-emphasises our common bonds again, that helps bring Europe and the US together again a bit. With Poland, America's new favourite son in Europe, in a star mediator role

I hope this is true, but frankly I doubt it. It has taken a long time for it to develop, but the old viewpoints that prevailed during the past century here have been replaced by something new. There is no longer the prevailing notion that we and the Western European states share the same goals and ambitions. Now the implicit assumption is that we are opponents on the world scene.

Perhaps, but I would think that this new sense of "being opponents on the world scene" would only actually persuasively play out when the ideological perspectives on an issue at hand do indeed differ starkly - not just for its own sake.

For example, when it comes to Israel, Iraq or Iran, Europe and the US do indeed have starkly different ideological instincts and visions. Diplomacy vs. war. War against terrorism versus conflict resolution. And of course those wholly different perceptions will come to the surface much more starkly now that there is so much less of a traditional strategic unity tying the parties across the Atlantic down as they used to do in face of a common enemy.

But in case of the continuing efforts to further democracy in the former Soviet Union, the two should by any normative criterium be on the same side. It feels artificial and awkward for some US conservatives to side with the authoritarians in the FSU, as some now do in eg the National Review or the Free Republic, just because of "the implicit assumption that [the US and the EU] are opponents on the world scene". Do you really want to exchange your traditional Reaganite loyalties to the insurgent democrats for one to their opponents, just for the sake of acquiring a strategic counterweight to the EU?

This is what I had already jotted down on that before turning on the computer:

nimh wrote:
I would submit that the common American-European support and sympathy for the "Orange" uprising is something that in part re-emphasises our common bonds again, that helps bring Europe and the US together again a bit. With Poland, America's new favourite son in Europe, in a star mediator role

Let me rephrase that.

It would be unfortunate if the American right, reasoning along the lines of a "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" kind of logic, would let its distaste of the EU lead it to embracing as its new ally a former KGB chief who's busily recentralising and renationalising Russia's politics and economy.

I see no consistent argument beyond the petty chess of political strategisms for Ronald Reagan's ideological descendants to surrender the positions so consistently expressed through the years of (post)communism by the likes of Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty and Voice of America and suddenly welcome more authoritarian, collectivist regimes in the Former Soviet Union, just because of a shared resentment of a resurgent Europe.

American conservatives chided European opponents of the Iraq war for letting their instinctive anti-Americanism override what should be a clear and common cause against totalitarianism elsewhere in the world. Putting myself in the skin of a neo-conservative for a moment, I see no persuasive excuse for US conservatives to now make the same mistake in reverse.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Dec, 2004 01:34 pm
<in the library>

In today's Guardian, amongst other things, there's Boris Nemtsov, in Yeltsin's later days the jeune premier of Russian democrats, now one of the leaders of Russia's (all too marginal) liberal opposition:

Quote:
A liberal Russian MP, Boris Nemtsov, wearing an orange scarf to signify his support for Mr Yushchenko, said: "It does not matter who wins today, but that Ukraine is now a democratic country. The people have shown they are stronger than corruption and falsification."

He said the impact of the crisis would be keenly felt in Russia.

"Putin is in a state of shock," he said, adding that Ukraine's experience belied Mr Putin's contention that Russia was not ready for true democracy. "Ukraine has shown that a Slavic country can be a democracy. It is now the pioneer."
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Dec, 2004 01:37 pm
Rubbing chillbumps.

Its a beautiful day.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Dec, 2004 01:40 pm
More acutely relevant, of course, is Yanukovych's refusal to concede:

Quote:
But the latest report Mr Yanukovich promised to mount a legal challenge against the results which would mean another twist in the protracted battle for the divided former Soviet country's presidency.

Refusing to concede, he told reporters in Kiev: "I will never recognise such a defeat, because the constitution and human rights were violated in our country and people died."


"People died"?

Also in the Guardian, an election day report from a Yanukovych bulwark:

Quote:
Ukraine's latest threat: blue and white rebellion

David Crouch in Yenakievo
Monday December 27, 2004
The Guardian


Voters in eastern Ukraine warned yesterday that they might mount a challenge to the country's new leadership if, as expected, their favourite son, Viktor Yanukovich, is defeated in the run-off presidential election.
A month after orange-clad opposition protesters forced a repeat vote because of fraud in the first ballot, the eastern industrial heartland signalled that it would not accept defeat lying down, amid ominous murmurs of a blue-and-white "revolution" of its own.

With members of Mr Yanukovich's camp already talking about legal challenges to the result before it came in, the contender's campaign slogan "We will defend our choice" was starting to take on a new significance.

The town of Yenakievo, 40km from the mining city of Donetsk, is where Mr Yanukovich grew up and worked in the vast metalworks whose fuming smokestacks tower above a jumble of coalmines and shabby homes.

Outside polling station number 37, a group of miners is discussing the tumultuous events of the past five weeks, which saw Mr Yanukovich declare electoral victory only to be forced into a rerun against Viktor Yushchenko because of widespread fraud.

Rumours catch on quickly here, and few are favourable towards the pro-western opposition leader. The latest word is that one of his local campaign officers has supposedly been caught offering bribes. The miners aren't surprised - it fits with the picture they already have of Mr Yushchenko.

"He destroyed the mines," says Sasha, 36. "When he was prime minister [1999-2001] we didn't get our wages or pensions; Yanukovich has raised both.

"If Yushchenko wins he'll crush us. He wants to import Polish coal. We'll end up selling chickens."

Igor, 29, is no more impressed. "When miners demonstrated in Kiev in 1998, where was Yushchenko then? Where were the free food and free blankets?" He said Mr Yushchenko's second-in-command, Yuliya Timoshenko, had "said she'll surround Donetsk with barbed wire, she told us to hang ourselves from our blue-and-white scarves. There's no way we'll accept a Yushchenko government."

Throughout the region Yushchenko supporters are a rarity, but in Yenakievo they are scared to come out. Local people have declined to fill the positions reserved for the opposition on the local electoral commissions, so Mr Yushchenko has had to bus in hundreds of people from western Ukraine to take their places.

Vera Kobilyanskaya, 46, a doctor from Rivno, is head of the Yushchenko campaign team in the town. She hasn't slept much: at 4am yesterday a large group of Yanukovich supporters held a meeting outside her hotel window, shouting "Yushchenko out!"

"At the second round of voting in November there were a great many falsifications in Yenakievo," she says. "The prosecutor is investigating." At one polling station the voting figures were dictated and handed out in advance; the electoral commission simply signed a blank piece of paper on which the results were then inscribed. At another, the turnout was 105%; at a third, 15 dead people turned up on the electoral roll.

"It's the same Yanukovich people in the electoral commissions from the second round," Ms Kobilyanskaya says. "But we are going to stick it out, there are more of us this time and we are tough. I will never forgive what the government has done to this country."

In Donetsk, Yanukovich supporters are defiant. The street protests in Kiev and western cities have set an example to the east. But political leaders in Donetsk have reacted angrily to accusations from the Yushchenko camp that Donetsk is arming itself to repel the new government.

"This is pure lies, it is simply stoking up tension," says the Donetsk mayor, Oleksandr Lukianchenko. "Before the second round they said Russian spetsnaz [special forces troops] were defending the government; this turned out to be false. Now they have shown once again what methods the opposition are using to sow fear and confusion."

On Lenin Square in the city centre, young people enjoying the unseasonably mild weather are united in their support for Mr Yanukovich. "If Yushchenko wins, there will be war," says Katya, 19, a student at Donetsk University of Economics.

Anton, 27, a rail worker, says: "There will be mass demonstrations. Yushchenko's people are mafiosi. But no one will have to pay us to come out and demonstrate, we will come of our own accord."
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Dec, 2004 02:00 pm
Quote:
Too early to say Ukraine has overcome serious crisis

27.12.2004, 20.39

MOSCOW, December 27 (Itar-Tass) - The presidential election in Ukraine is over, but it is yet too early to say that Ukraine has overcome the most serious crisis of the past months, Konstantin Kosachev, the chairman of the committee for international affairs of the State Duma lower house of Russian parliament, said on Monday.

"This result is a necessary stage for Ukraine on the way of overcoming the crisis with which it has not yet fully coped," he said.

"The pace of settling the crisis," Kosachev said, "will wholly depend on the actions of Ukraine's new leadership. If Yushchenko is unable to overcome the inertia of the election campaign when he spoke from obviously radical positions of the refusal to accept the existing authorities and objected to plans of coming closer to Russia, then Ukraine is in for a serious split and opposition of one part of society to the other."

"If Yushchenko is able to be above sentiments and emotions of the election campaign, if he succeeds in working out a programme of actions of president of all Ukrainians and in the interests of all regions, both Eastern and Western, then Ukraine will have a chance to overcome the crisis".

The chairman of the Duma committee pointed with satisfaction to "some positive elements" in Yushchenko's positions. This refers to his intention to visit Russia first of all in his capacity as president, and also to sign the decree to withdraw the Ukrainian contingent from Iraq.

"I regard this as the indication of Yushchenko's striving to pursue the foreign policy independent of the United States and Europe and oriented at Ukraine's national interests." "This is a good omen, if not a mere declaration," Kosachev said.

Kosachev believes Ukraine "has chances to overcome the crisis if it is oriented at its own national interests and at the development of non-political and most pragmatic relations with all its neighbours, Russia, naturally, included," Kosachev said.
Source
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Dec, 2004 02:01 pm
Nimh,

I generally agree with your analysis, however there are a few important distinctions to be made.

The differences in the approaches favored by Europe and those of the USA in the Middle East are, as you said, often characterized by a preference for diplomacy and negotiation on one hand and direct action on the other. However that is a far from sufficient characterization of the actual encounters we face in world affairs. Some European states in executing their "preferred" diplomatic approach actively opposed risky actions we were taking both in the field and in the assembly of a coalition. While that situation may well contain elements of a preference for diplomacy vs. one for direct action, for the nation that has committed its forces, the other party is hardly distinguishable from an enemy. This is a salient issue in our relations with France today and to a lesser extent with Germany. (The fact that we have recovered enormous Iraqi stocks of French-made weaponry - of recent manufacture, is much discussed in our military circles.) It is my opinion that events already taken will have lasting effects on perceptions in this country of the nature of our relationship with those countries. Similarly it is clear that we are distancing ourselves at every turn from the present government in Spain. These things bring their own adverse momentum to the development of strategy in subsequent issues - as is amply demonstrated in history.

The matter of Israel & Palestine brings its own special elements. There is no doubt that the United States unwisely failed to pressure Israel after the 1967 war to quickly establish a political solution in the West Bank - either take the people and the territory, or let both go. This was likely a result of the political pressure American Jews are able to bring to bear on the matter. There is no comparable political element in Europe precisely because of the Holocaust, and the fact that Israel was populated by Jews who survived it fleeing their European homelands. In this area Europe bears a moral responsibility which it has never sufficiently acknowledged (except in Germany). Moreover the duplicity involved in the dismemberment of the former Ottoman Empire, the work of Britain and France, is still a salient factor in the political turmoil in the Middle East. In the light of these considerations, I believe that Europe has utterly failed to live up to its responsibilities for its own misdeeds. There are many Americans who understand all this. Now that the US has firmly declared its committment to a two state solution along with a rejection for the illusions if the Clinton-Barak scheme of 1999, anhas demanded that the Palestinians develop a real, responsible government as a precondition to the attainment of their political goals, it seems to me that a little constructive help from Europe is in order.

I agree that it would be both unfortunate and unwise for us to abandon our long-standing commitment to the liberated states of Central and Eastern Europe. How this situation unfolds depends on the choices both they and we will make in the months and years ahead. However, for those in U.S. Strategy analysis circles who take seriously Chirac's frequent expressions of an intent to lead the EU to a position from which it can challenge an America (in his view) badly in need of such challenge, and who see it as representing an enduring segment of European views, the choice in this area is for those Central and Eastern European states to make. If they adopt this EU strategic view, then the matter is already lost and we would have abandoned nothing of enduring value.

A great deal of attention is given to Putin's authoritarian initiatives: relatively less to those in China. If he achieves economic success in a manner that leaves open the prospect of evolutionary reform at a meaningful pace, he will have outdone China, and I think will be quite acceptable to all. Russia and the United States present certain similarities, particularly in their posture towards Europe. During the long Cold War the principal antagonists developed a certain interest and respect for one another. It is very easy for me to see a growing accommodation between the United States and Russia if the EU "grand strategy" begins to unfold. Europe too must make its choices. You can't have your cake and eat it too. .
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Dec, 2004 02:04 pm
Winning is a second victory, IMO. What the people of the Ukraine have already done--gather together and stand against corruption--and refuse to leave-- this is an incredible victory to me.

It's the sheer courage, the brave refusal to accept oppression, corruption quietly. Something was more important to them than their own personal safety or comfort. When that happens on a large scale, its almost miraculous to me. That's one victory for them, for everyone, I think. Because it happened where it did ratcheted up the stakes. I'm still in awe of them.

I don't think they'll ever be quite the same there. And, they're better for it, IMO.

I sort of cooled on my blind Yuschenko praising a little while back--cause I realized I don't know enough about these two men to be so vocal for one over the other. I would assume Yuschenko would be closer to my preference--but I don't have enough information on the two to know.

But, what I do know is the Orange Revolution, no matter who eventually wins, was a very good thing for the people of the Ukraine. Do the Blue and Whites have any less right to get out in the street and voice their preference? I don't think so.

If it can just kept legal (non-violent) and remain driven by the people...
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Dec, 2004 02:32 pm
Lash wrote:
Winning is a second victory, IMO. What the people of the Ukraine have already done--gather together and stand against corruption--and refuse to leave-- this is an incredible victory to me.

It's the sheer courage, the brave refusal to accept oppression, corruption quietly. Something was more important to them than their own personal safety or comfort. When that happens on a large scale, its almost miraculous to me. That's one victory for them, for everyone, I think.


<sharing the feeling>
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Dec, 2004 03:31 pm
Quote:
Ukraine minister found shot dead

Ukrainian Transport Minister Heorhiy Kyrpa has been found dead at his holiday home near the capital Kiev.
The minister is reported to have gun-shot wounds and officials said a gun was found near his body.

Mr Kyrpa, 58, appointed in 2002, was a staunch supporter of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych.

There are no reports the death is linked to Mr Yanukovych's defeat by opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko in Sunday's presidential poll re-run.
Source
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Dec, 2004 03:47 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
I agree that it would be both unfortunate and unwise for us to abandon our long-standing commitment to the liberated states of Central and Eastern Europe. How this situation unfolds depends on the choices both they and we will make in the months and years ahead. However, for those in U.S. Strategy analysis circles who take seriously Chirac's frequent expressions of an intent to lead the EU to a position from which it can challenge an America (in his view) badly in need of such challenge, and who see it as representing an enduring segment of European views, the choice in this area is for those Central and Eastern European states to make. If they adopt this EU strategic view, then the matter is already lost and we would have abandoned nothing of enduring value.

But isn't foreign policy more than strategic interests? I know that, asked of you, that risks being a rhetorical question, since you have long and articulately argued the case that no, it isn't. But you share your own political "camp" now with a new generation of neoconservatives that does, indeed, see the foreign policy arena as one to achieve more than loyal states and allied interests with - to better the world, in their own way. Their take-no-prisoners attitude re: Iraq exemplified a vision in which the US is ultimately benefited more by newly democratic states taking the place of previous authoritarian regimes, no matter what their future strategic loyalties, than by live-by-the-day strategic alliances with this or that existing regime of dubious credentials. In that respect I do recognize some of their, dare I say, idealism.

In such a vision, Central or Eastern European states overcoming or overthrowing the corrupt, authoritarian patterns of the Former Soviet Union in the 1990s and establishing functioning democracies and market economies is an end of "enduring value" regardless of whether they then join with France, Germany, the UK or America in the day's strategic arena.

In short - to once more evoke Reagan's spirit - did he want the wall to fall because he hoped to enlarge America's stock of allies - and would "nothing of enduring value" consequently have been gained if those behind the wall then turned out to choose another strategic camp to join? Or was there an idea bigger than that behind his rhetorics? I think there was, and it's one of the rare things I value in his legacy. From your quote I gather that, should the "liberated states of Central and Eastern Europe" choose the EU's side, they will therewith have "chosen" to lose US sympathy - regardless of their democratic credentials. I don't think Reagan would have approved of that line of thought.

The EU, even France, after all hardly equates with the erstwhile Soviet Union, loyalty to which would lose a country American support regardless of democratic credentials back in his day. In fact I think the threat to the US of a resurgent Europe has become overperceived in this last year or two of strife over Iraq. Of course I, personally, would like to see a strong EU in the international arena, one consistently pushing for a multilateral order with a strong intergovernmental component (UN), increasingly rooted in standards and principles rather than opportunism. We've come a long enough way on that compared to, say, 1914. That vision, of course, starkly differs from yours. (It would also require the new EU to somehow synthesize France's "strong-Europe" geostrategisms, but not its foreign policy unscrupulousness, with Germany's and Scandinavia's principle-driven politics, but not their passivity.) But seriously - when compared or confronted with totalitarian China, with today's outlaw-states, with rekindled xenophobic nationalism, we would still instinctively and ideologically end up on the same side, wouldn't we?

That, at least, is what I would be counting on. I realise that, to American conservatives, their sense of betrayal about Europe comes from feeling they counted on something similar re: Iraq, and got the opposite. I guess that, if and when a US government would indeed take the side of a (future) totalitarian regime in Russia or China against an EU that, however assertive, is after all just still trying to spread democracy and freedom - to spread the very same values you Americans brought here again after WW2 - it would feel like a similar kind of betrayal. But then, considering how much closer to home the Former Soviet Union is than Iraq, of a significantly more acute scope.

Needless to say, not the way to go imho.

georgeob1 wrote:
Russia and the United States present certain similarities, particularly in their posture towards Europe. During the long Cold War the principal antagonists developed a certain interest and respect for one another. It is very easy for me to see a growing accommodation between the United States and Russia if the EU "grand strategy" begins to unfold.

You are right to point out that China's authoritarian excesses, committed away from the BBC and CNN cameras, far outdo anything Putin has been up to (though I doubt that was the point you were making). But when you proceed to sketch a future alliance between Russia and the US you kind of underline my point in my previous post, that such an alliance would seem to be based exclusively on a short-term strategic interest, the common dislike of Europe/the EU.

The question I asked in my previous post was basically about values. It strikes me that, in sketching the way the US and Russia might 'find each other', you propose no political values that Putin's Russia and GWB's America would actually share, beyond that fear or resentment of a resurgent EU (and probably the wish to each not be bothered in one's strategic designs). The question thus still stands: Do you really want to toss aside your traditional loyalties to the democrats of Eastern Europe, in exchange for ones to those who clamp down on them - just for the sake of acquiring a geostrategic counterweight to the EU? Wouldn't it be something of a betrayal to the ideological legacy that determined America's policy on Eastern Europe, Reagan's in particular, for so long? Would it really be worth it?

I do sense a deep if submerged division here between, say, the instinctively idealist, boisterous (neo)conservatism of Lash and O'Bill and the ease with which a more traditional conservative like you would relinquish ideological allies and affinities merely for the sake of tying, say, France down. I am for one glad that GWB, for now (and to a greater extent than in his first years as President, when he seemed overly impressed with what he saw "in Putin's eyes"), still seems determined to fuel and edge on the Sakaashvili's and Yushchenko's of today's Eastern Europe.

I think it's the right and proper thing to do. After all, the recent history of the very hotbeds your government has now been trying to establish democracy in, Iraq, Afghanistan, shows all too clearly that submitting to the temptation of supporting forces that share few of your values but stand against the same enemy, leaves a violent hangover to grapple with a decade later. As my sig used to say of realpolitik, it "sows the seeds of tomorrow's trouble in its tactics to tackle today's enemies". When it comes to the US and EU vis-a-vis (looming) authoritarianism in the east, it's better to keep things in perspective.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Dec, 2004 12:03 am
nimh wrote:
But isn't foreign policy more than strategic interests? I know that, asked of you, that risks being a rhetorical question, since you have long and articulately argued the case that no, it isn't. But you share your own political "camp" now with a new generation of neoconservatives that does, indeed, see the foreign policy arena as one to achieve more than loyal states and allied interests with - to better the world, in their own way.

Good point. I think that the foreign policy of most states tends to converge or revert towards its fundamental, cold-blooded strategic interests in the absence of specific forces that may disturb it. Long-term outcomes tend to favor the strategic interests, but excursions do occur. I don't argue that this is the way a world I created would work, but rather it is an observable fact of the history of the world in which we live.

It happens that neighboring or even opposing nations sometimes have different views of the strategic situation, and that can cause confusion and sometimes-needless conflict (WWI).

The Venetians and the French often found it beneficial to support the Moslems and later the Ottomans against their European neighbors when it suited them (Francis I and Charles DeGaulle were similar historical figures.). From the seventeenth through the nineteenth century Britain aligned itself with whatever continental powers were the rivals of the dominant one, seeking always to prevent the domination of continental Europe by any one power. Similarly when Britain or France feared Russia they supported the Ottomans: when they did not they sought to bring down the "Sick Man of Europe, and plunder his territories. When after escaping Hapsburg rule the Dutch proved themselves to be capable merchants, skillful seamen and adventurous explorers, the British and French wasted no time in cutting down what they saw as a serious rival for their trade and colonial interests. Even religious issues did not get in the way of these very cold-blooded materialistic interests.

I agree that the democratic or open societies in the world do have common strategic interests particularly in this age in which we are confronted with secular or theocratic authoritarian governments in Africa and the Moslem world and parts of Asia. I believe that President Bush is correct in observing that Democracy, if it can be achieved, is the right remedy for the dilemmas confronting many Moslem states. However, history strongly suggests this factor alone does not trump other strategic factors. A common taste for democracy does not necessarily make for allies. The mere fact that France and Germany lobbied actively to frustrate support of our efforts in Iraq by other European states and, in effect, told Turkey that their support of our planned northern front in Iraq would threaten Turkey's potential for EU membership, tells the tale. These are not the actions of states that prefer other methods of achieving the same ends: they are the actions of enemies. And that is how the situation is increasingly being seen in the United States - and deservedly so.

We showed France far more consideration than she deserved at the end of WWII. The fact is that for most of the war the French were active collaborators with the Nazis - they were not our allies at all. It would be difficult to make the case that we have been fairly repaid by this historically faithless nation. I would never wish to see American lives or treasure put at risk for the benefit of France - under any circumstances. Germany is far better in that it has truly confronted its own history - the good and the bad. Moreover Germany has paid the price for rebuilding a shattered economy and later restoring the former GDR to modern standards.

I believe that Europe's fascination with the UN and international treaties and judicial procedure is an illusion, perhaps enhanced by its internal experience with the European Union. It is understandably motivated by the facts of Europe's ghastly history since the Thirty-Year's War. Other parts of the world do not have such motivation, and the remedies that may be most appropriate in Europe are not necessarily even beneficial in other parts of the world. (Events in Bosnia suggest they may not work even in Europe when the stakes are high.) Moreover in its attempts to organize bureaucratic and administrative solutions to problems that do not admit such solutions, Europe not only does practical harm, it ignores its own major part in creating the very problems it attempts to wave away. Finally when it bites its former benefactor in the back while it attempts to deal with malignancies of Europe's own creation, Europe fully earns the contempt it increasingly gets from thoughtful people.

These are harsh words and I do not mean any personal attack on you, Walter, or any of the many engaging and thoughtful European posters on these threads. I am speaking to historical truths and judgements, which I believe, will become increasingly clear in the years ahead.
0 Replies
 
dlowan
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Dec, 2004 03:40 am
And he is trying to refuse to go:

Refusing to Accept Loss in Election, Ukrainian Premier Looks to Courts

By Peter Finn
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, December 28, 2004; Page A16

KIEV, Ukraine, Dec. 27 -- Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych refused to accept defeat in the country's presidential election and vowed Monday to ask the Supreme Court to overturn the result, claiming that millions of his supporters were disenfranchised and that there was systematic fraud.

"I will never admit defeat," Yanukovych said at a Monday evening news conference, where he sternly rejected suggestions that he should give up. "It's an appalling fact when millions of citizens didn't vote. They were stripped of that right to vote."



A supporter of Ukraine's Viktor Yushchenko, holding a Polish flag, shouts at a rally in Kiev. Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski was among the leaders to congratulate Yushchenko. (Alexander Zemlianichenko -- AP)


With 99.84 percent of the ballots counted, opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko had a commanding lead, with 52 percent of the vote to 44 percent for Yanukovych. Early Monday Yushchenko claimed victory while speaking to his supporters as a resigned mood swept Yanukovych's camp.

The Central Elections Commission cannot declare Yushchenko the official winner until all legal challenges are heard by the country's Supreme Court. That process could take several more weeks. Yanukovych has seven days to file a challenge.

The prime minister said 4.8 million potential voters were not able to cast their ballots because of new electoral laws that restricted voting by the disabled and the use of absentee ballots by people unable to make it to the polls.

Those measures, adopted by parliament before Sunday's runoff, were designed to limit fraud, but Yanukovych said the new regulations violated the constitution and became an insurmountable barrier for the disabled. He claimed eight sick people died after arriving at polling stations.

"Who will take responsibility for the people who perished?" he said..........


Full story here:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A28759-2004Dec27.html?nav=rss_world
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