News & discussion on house and senate races

Vermont Would Send Sanders to Senate

Angus Reid Global Scan : Polls & Research
May 15, 2006

Bernie Sanders could earn a six-year term as one of Vermont's representatives to the United States Senate, according to a poll by Research 2000. At least 61 per cent of respondents in the Green Mountain State would vote for the independent candidate in head-to-head contests against two prospective Republican rivals.

Sanders has been Vermont's at-large member of the U.S. House of Representatives since 1991. After independent U.S. senator Jim Jeffords announced his retirement from the upper house, Sanders launched his bid for the Senate seat. [..]

Sanders holds a 37-point lead over businessman Richard Tarrent, and a 42-point advantage over former Air Force colonel Greg Parke. [..]

Polling Data

If the 2006 election of U.S. Senate were held today, whom would you vote for if the choice were between Bernie Sanders, the Independent, and (the following Republicans)?

Option 1

61% Bernie Sanders (I)

24% Richard Tarrent (R)

15% Undecided

Option 2

64% Bernie Sanders (S)

22% Greg Parke (R)

14% Undecided


Source: Research 2000
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 400 likely Vermont voters, conducted on May 5 and May 6, 2006. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.

By ADAM NAGOURNEY
Published: May 21, 2006

WASHINGTON, May 19 ?- For months, even in the face of an avalanche of bad news for Republicans, Democratic ambitions for capturing Congress have collided with an electoral map created to protect Republicans from ouster. Despite polls showing rising support for Democrats and scorn for Republicans, analysts have said Democratic hopes for big gains remain remote, because so few seats are in contention.

That appears to be changing.

Over the past week, a handful of once-safe Republican Congressional seats have come into play, and other Republican incumbents are facing increasingly stiff re-election battles, according to analysts, pollsters and officials in both parties. The change amounts to a slight but significant shift in the playing field, and a potentially pivotal change in the dynamics of this midterm election.

Hmm, count me still sceptic. I can see some seats changing hands, but no landslide. Anger at the Republicans, but no enthusiasm for the Democrats.

Lamont has a snow balls chance in hell. He represents much the same population as the individual you spoke of who moved to Vermont, but there are many fewer of those in Connecticut.
Lieberman has two problem, one of which is of his own making. His first (and self made) problem is that he has national ambitions, he would like to be president. Therefore he has to make the kinds of statements that will inoculate him from the kind of slander that was hurled at Kerry in 04. Secondly he represents a state with a very large dependency on defense spending. Connecticut manufacture submarines, jet engines and military helicopters just for a stater, there is much more. He has to keep those people happy if he wants their campaign money. His calculation is apparently that he has a solid electoral base in the state and he can afford to affront the people who are backing Lamont.

Column: Lamont effort to beat Lieberman is gaining surprising strength
RAY HACKETT
On Politics

Greenwich businessman Ned Lamont will begin a state-wide petition drive Wednesday, a safety net of sorts to ensure himself a place on the Aug. 8 Democratic primary ballot in his challenge to three-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman.

It's not a bad idea, especially for someone who isn't very well known statewide.

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But the petitioning drive may not be necessary. Lamont would automatically qualify as a primary challenger if he can capture 15 percent of the delegate vote at the May 20 Democratic State Convention. And based on the buzz generated statewide by this race, I wouldn't be surprised if Lamont does significantly better than that.

I think it's possibly that Lamont could pick up 30 to 35 percent of delegates. If he does, Lieberman is in the battle of his political life.

What's going on here? How is it that the man who just six years ago won the popular vote as the Democratic candidate for vice president of the United States finds himself in a situation where members of his own party are turning on him?

Lieberman's support of the war in Iraq is the major factor. Rank-and-file Democrats oppose the war, and they see Lieberman's support as a break in traditional Democratic philosophies.

There's also the perception that Lieberman supports the president on a variety of other issues. That's not true, but that doesn't matter. It is what a number of Democrats believe.

There are basically two groups within the Democratic Party that are slowly moving away from Lieberman and toward Lamont. There are those who are angry with Lieberman, and would love nothing more than to see him retired.

There isn't anything anyone can say to convince them not to vote against Lieberman.

And there are others who are upset with him, and are leaning toward Lamont as a means of sending Lieberman a wake-up call.

How serious is all this? Consider:

# There are rumors that half of New Haven's 69 delegates intend on voting for Lamont at the convention. Lieberman's official residence in Connecticut is New Haven.

# In New Britain, a Democratic stronghold, reportedly the majority of its 31 delegates are backing Lamont.

# The Democratic Town Committee chairman in Manchester, Ted Cummings, is reportedly trying to broker a deal with his delegates, hoping to get a 17-10 split in favor of Lieberman. Earlier this year, the Manchester committee voted nearly unanimously in favor of a resolution expressing no confidence in the incumbent.

And there are pockets -- although smaller and not quite as dramatic -- of similar levels of discontent scattered throughout the state. All that adds up to convention votes in favor of Lamont.

Despite that, it is highly unlikely that Lieberman would lose the party's nomination at the state convention. But a strong showing by Lamont will certainly fuel his campaign -- and throw gasoline on the fires of those who want nothing more than to see Lieberman defeated in an August primary. And winning a primary in the midst of the summer isn't a guarantee for anyone.

Lieberman maintains the advantage, but nothing so strong that he can afford to take anything for granted. According to Federal Election Commission filings last week, Lieberman has raised $4.7 million during the election cycle that began in 2000.

Lamont reported $712,611 raised in the first three months of his campaign. More than half of that, however -- $371,500 -- came out of his pocket. The remainder of his funding -- $341,111 -- came from more than 4,300 individual donors. But not all of them live in Connecticut and, therefore, are not eligible to vote in a primary.

But if Lamont emerges from next month's convention having made a strong showing -- or stronger than what many might have thought -- those funds will continue to pour into the state.

For his part, Lieberman acknowledges -- in one of two television commercials his campaign launched last week -- that there is a growing dissatisfaction among Democrats. In the ad titled, "Common Ground," Lieberman says:

"I already know that some of you feel passionately against my position on Iraq. I respect your views, and while we probably won't change each other's minds, I hope we can still have a dialogue and find common ground on all the issues where we do agree."

As for Lamont's petition drive, his campaign is setting up "training sessions" across the state for those interested in volunteering to gather signatures, including one in Norwich. It's scheduled for 7 p.m. Wednesday at the Marriott Courtyard on West Town Street.

The goal of the Lamont campaign is to collect 6,000 signatures of registered Democrats.

Ray Hackett is the Norwich Bulletin's chief political reporter, with more than 30 years experience covering politics on the local, state and national level. He has covered Connecticut politics for the Bulletin for more than 18 years. His column appears Sundays. Reach Ray Hackett at 425-4225 or rhackett@norwichbulletin. com

I think the other important factor in 94 was a very slick and effective marketing campaign run by Gingrich and his crowd.

Column: Lamont effort to beat Lieberman is gaining surprising strength
RAY HACKETT
On Politics

[..] I think it's possibly that Lamont could pick up 30 to 35 percent of delegates.

[..] How serious is all this? Consider:

# There are rumors that half of New Haven's 69 delegates intend on voting for Lamont at the convention. Lieberman's official residence in Connecticut is New Haven.

# In New Britain, a Democratic stronghold, reportedly the majority of its 31 delegates are backing Lamont.

Clinton Draws Line on Backing Lieberman

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton Says Sen. Joseph Lieberman on Own if He Loses Party Primary

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, a longtime supporter of Sen. Joseph Lieberman, said Tuesday she will not back the Connecticut Democrat's bid for re-election if he loses their party's primary.

"I've known Joe Lieberman for more than thirty years. I have been pleased to support him in his campaign for re-election, and hope that he is our party's nominee," the former first lady said in a statement issued by aides.

"But I want to be clear that I will support the nominee chosen by Connecticut Democrats in their primary," the New York Democrat added. "I believe in the Democratic Party, and I believe we must honor the decisions made by Democratic primary voters." [..]

Facing a stronger-than-expected Democratic primary challenge from millionaire businessman Ned Lamont and sagging poll numbers because of his support of the Iraq war, Lieberman said Monday he'll collect signatures to assure an independent ballot spot for the November election if he loses the Aug. 8 primary. [..]

Democrats hoping to win back the Senate have been looking to win seats in states such as Pennsylvania, Montana, Missouri, Virginia and Tennessee, and Lieberman's decision to begin collecting the 7,500 signatures needed to assure a separate spot on the November ballot could complicate things. [..]

Democrats have eyes fixed on Colorado

By JON SARCHE, Associated Press Writer
Thu Jul 20, 10:31 PM ET

Colorado glistened like a small gem among coals for Democrats in 2004, with two congressional wins and majority control of the state legislature for the first time since John F. Kennedy was president.

Democrats are hoping Colorado shines even brighter this November.

Up for grabs is the governorship and two open House seats, with Democrats contending that they have a chance to make deeper inroads in a Western state that has been reliably Republican for years.

Washington's political scandals and deficit spending have driven some Colorado voters to the Democrats, while the perception of the Republican Party's increasing alignment with Christian evangelical ideology has turned off moderates, analysts say.

This weekend, the moderate Democratic Leadership Council holds its annual meeting in Denver, attracting a handful of potential 2008 presidential candidates such as New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh and Govs. Tom Vilsack of Iowa and Bill Richardson of New Mexico. [..]

Colorado is "exactly the kind of red state we must win if we are to be returned to national power," said Al From, founder and chief executive of the centrist group, who called the state "the capital of the new West."

Denver also is one of three cities, along with New York and Minneapolis-St. Paul, vying for the Democratic National Convention in 2008.

It won't be easy for Democrats this November. Bush won 45 of the state's 64 counties in 2004 [but just 51,7% of the state's vote - nimh], as Republicans have enjoyed strong traditional support in rural areas and in Colorado Springs [..].

Denver and Boulder stand as Democratic strongholds, with pockets of support in mountain resort areas.

Despite Bush's win, Colorado became something of a blueprint for many Democrats after the party's stunning gains in 2004. Democrat Ken Salazar captured an open Senate seat, his brother John won an open House seat and the majority Republican legislature went Democratic.

The state Senate, once 18-17 Republican, is now 18-17 Democrat. The state House, once 37-28 Republican, is now 35-30 Democrat. [..]

This election year, Democrats hope to win the governorship ?- Republican Gov. Bill Owens must step down due to term limits ?- and at least one of two open House seats. The Democratic approach rests with appealing to the unaffiliated voters, who comprise 34 percent compared to 36 percent registered Republican and 30 percent registered Democrat.

"They believe the strategy is to win the swing voter, the suburban voter, the more independent voter, and they think that Colorado is a model for the West," said Floyd Ciruli, an independent political pollster in Denver.

Whether 2004 is an aberration or the start of a trend remains to be seen, argues Katy Atkinson, a GOP consultant in Denver. But she said the extremist wings of both parties are starting to grate on moderates while a perception of fiscal irresponsibility in the Bush administration and the GOP-led Congress are tainting views of state politics.

"All of a sudden, (Republicans) are faced with the prospect across the country with these people who have always voted Republican that are now paying some attention to what the Democrats have to say," Atkinson said. "They've gone from being a 75-percent-of-the-time Republican vote to maybe a 50-50."

In the governor's race, two-term Republican Rep. Bob Beauprez faces Democrat Bill Ritter, a former Denver district attorney who leads in recent polls. Ritter is seen as a moderate, a Catholic who opposes abortion but has said he would always support a woman's right to choose.

Democrats plan $30 million of campaign ads

Signaling a new phase in the struggle for control of Congress, House Democrats have reserved time for more than $30 million worth of campaign advertising this fall in roughly two dozen congressional districts, with a heavy emphasis on the Northeast and Midwest.

The Democratic targets include clusters of Republican-held seats in the Philadelphia area held by Reps. Jim Gerlach, Curt Weldon and Michael Fitzpatrick, as well as the Ohio River Valley, where Reps. John Hostettler of Indiana, Geoff Davis of Kentucky and Steve Chabot of Ohio can expect a protracted televised barrage.

Based on information available to date, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee intends to air ads for eight weeks in an attempt to defeat Rep. Heather Wilson (news, bio, voting record) of New Mexico. Rep. Clay Shaw of Florida faces a particularly well-financed opponent, but he can also expect to face five weeks of Democratic-paid advertising.

After 12 years in the minority, Democrats need to pick up 15 seats this fall to gain control of the House.

Material about advertising reservations is publicly available. [..]

Two years ago, the two parties spent more than $70 million combined on their own advertising, which by law are undertaken independent of activity by the campaigns.

Judging by recent reports, the totals for 2006 will be higher.

The DCCC reported this week it had $32 million in the bank as of June 30, compared with $18.4 at the same point two years ago.

The NRCC reported slightly $26.5 million cash on hand as of June 30. [..]

Based on the time reserved to date, Democrats appear inclined to make Hostettler the recipient of their most sustained advertising barrage, 11 weeks in the area around Evansville.

Other targets include Reps. Dave Reichert of Washington, Mike Sodrel of Indiana and Rob Simmons of Connecticut.

Apart from Republican incumbents, Democrats intend to advertise in several GOP-held seats where lawmakers are retiring. They include districts held by Reps. Jim Kolbe in Arizona, Bob Beauprez in Colorado, Jim Nussle in Iowa, Mark Green in Wisconsin and Henry Hyde in Illinois.

The party also reserved time to advertise in districts held by Democratic Reps. Melissa Bean of Illinois, Leonard Boswell of Iowa and Alan Mollohan of West Virginia. Republicans have signaled they will target all three for defeat.

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- The devastating poll results for Republican Ken Blackwell in Sunday's Columbus Dispatch -- showing him 20 points behind his Democratic rival in his bid to become the most conservative big-state governor in modern times -- would try the faith of any candidate. Instead, Blackwell spoke passionately for more than a half-hour Sunday morning to the congregation at the Pentecostal Potter's House Church of God as he testified to his Christian faith and to his belief in a thin permeable membrane separating pulpit and politics.