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News & discussion on house and senate races

 
 
JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Tue 6 Dec, 2005 05:45 pm
The difference is in their believability.

When Kaine portrayed himself as an outdoorsman, comfortable using a shotgun, it seems the general public believed him. It remains to be seen whether he'll stay true to that image.

When Kerry tried it, he all but got laughed out of his camouflage outfit. I remember one picture of him on that famous "hunting" trip where he took aim, was prepared to shoot, but a close-up of the photo showed the gun's safety was still on - was pretty hilarious. He was faking it and he couldn't fool the population.

Hillary does the same thing. She talks like she supports the troops, but given half a chance I think the first thing she'd do is cut military spending. She seems to have two opinions on just about everything ... it just depends on which group she's talking to.

The public isn't as dumb as the Left would have us believe. All that you outlined is indeed what has contributed to the downfall of the Democrats (and not just in the South). They may succeed in picking up a seat or two by running DINOs (such as with Kaine), but as long as the party is being led by the likes of Howard Dean and John Kerry they won't see any significant gains in the South or anywhere else. Key word there is "gains".

Of course, all of the above is merely the opinion of an admitted Republican who believes in and strongly supports the 2nd Amendment, capitalism, free trade, the death penalty, lower taxes and the United States Military.
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 6 Dec, 2005 06:56 pm
Thank you, Justwonders, for your response.
I would gently request that we move any debate we may have to another thread. This thread is intended, I believe, as a place where folks can try to report on races they consider interesting between now and next November. It has been more than a little quiet, with Johnboy and Nimh being the only regulars. I try to report on contests I hear about as evenly as I can, but I disclosed on page 1 that I have a liberal bias, and I am sure that that attitude creeps into my reporting. Sorry about that.

Anyway, I would appreciate it if we could get back to Nimh's orginal intent (as I understand it) for this thread. Any interesting races in your area of interest?

Thankyou. -realjohnboy-
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JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Wed 7 Dec, 2005 03:39 pm
realjohnboy wrote:
Anyway, I would appreciate it if we could get back to Nimh's orginal intent (as I understand it) for this thread. Any interesting races in your area of interest?


Okay Smile

No. Like you, I think it'll be a while now before anything of interest heats up. I'll just read along for now.
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JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Dec, 2005 11:04 am
I guess this Boston Globe report on the senatorial race in Pennsylvania would be considered "on-topic" for this thread.

Reading it reminded me of realjohnboy's comments about how the Democrats are trying to move to the center.

Delicious irony.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Dec, 2005 12:52 pm
JustWonders wrote:
Reading it reminded me of realjohnboy's comments about how the Democrats are trying to move to the center.

Delicious irony.


<starts reading>

Quote:
IN WASHINGTON, Democrats are challenging the nomination of Samuel A. Alito Jr. to the Supreme Court because he opposes abortion. In Pennsylvania, those same Democrats are working to help Robert P. Casey Jr. topple Republican Senator Rick Santorum -- because Casey opposes abortion.


<screeches to halt>

Hel-lo... it is quite a different issue where a future Judge on the Supreme Court stands on abortion than where a Senator stands.

Each Senator can have an opinion of personal conscience about that, but still be a viable Democratic Senator, because he will be elected on his overall Democratic government programme ... why block somebody out just because he disagrees with the majority line on one out of many issues?

But the Supreme Court, thats where the whole fate of the right to choose itself rests on, on that precarious majority for Roe-vs-Wade.

In the same vein, there's Republican Congressmen out there who, on foreign policy, are of isolationist bent, yet whose logical place in the Party, I'm sure, you would nevertheless not doubt, considering how they represent the party's ideology in so many different (other) ways. But when one is proposed as the new Secretary of State, I'm sure the equation for the Republican establishment (or for you) on whether isolationist convictions are still acceptable changes entirely.

OK, that was off-topic, but also too easy.
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Dec, 2005 06:08 pm
From the same Globe editorial:

"But the GOP is not immune from the lure of the straddle. Representative Tom Davis of Virginia, a Republican, recently warned that overturning a woman's right to an abortion could hurt the party."

I assume Davis was referring to the Republican party; although the phrasing in his next quote confused me a bit. Anyway, I would reiterate that both parties will, I think, jettison some of their extreme views (some may call them core beliefs) in a race to the middle.

Thanks, JustWonders, for joining us here! I look forward to hearing from you on a regular basis. -johnboy-
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Dec, 2005 06:45 pm
On another subject, I took no delight in seeing the downfall of Representative "Duke" Cunningham. He, like johnboy, is a Vietanm vet. Except he was a bit of a hero as a pilot. It was painful to see the juxtapositioning of his defiant denial of having taken bribes a year ago to his tearful admission this week that he did. It was tough for me to watch.

NPR this evening had a report on him and on some of the contractors and lobbyists he dealt with. Why haven't any of those folks been charged with anything yet? The suggestion was made that other members of Congress may be peripherally involved (johnboy's gentle way of saying implicated). Already, several members of Congress are returning contributions they received from the contractors involved, or donating the money to charity. One of the contractors had an office here in Charlottesville and my House Representative was a recipient of a goodly amount of donations to his campaign.

This could be interesting to watch. And, oh yes, JustWonders, the names of Congressmen involved includes Democrats as well as Republicans.
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JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Sat 10 Dec, 2005 12:01 pm
nimh wrote:
In the same vein, there's Republican Congressmen out there who, on foreign policy, are of isolationist bent, yet whose logical place in the Party, I'm sure, you would nevertheless not doubt, considering how they represent the party's ideology in so many different (other) ways. But when one is proposed as the new Secretary of State, I'm sure the equation for the Republican establishment (or for you) on whether isolationist convictions are still acceptable changes entirely.


No need to make this more complicated than it is.

If the Republicans were backing an isolationist candidate for the US Senate, and Condoleeza Rice's nomination for Secretary of State was on the table, I'd expect him to be candid on which way he'd vote. I'd also expect an explanation on the Republicans' doublespeak in backing such a candidate.

If Mr. Casey wants to represent the good people of Pennsylvania, he should stop the straddling and answer the question.

Just my opinion.

realjohnboy: I feel your pain on Cunningham. He brought it all on himself, though, and will deserve whatever fate (and sentence) that is handed him. I agree there's greed on both sides of the aisle and the sooner they're weeded out (if only), the better.
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 11 Dec, 2005 02:20 pm
JustWonders wrote:
. I agree there's greed on both sides of the aisle and the sooner they're weeded out (if only), the better.
.

The presumptive opponent to our member of the House, who may or may not be implicated in the affair, bears the last name of Weed. So "weeded out" has an amusing twist.
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Jonsey
 
  1  
Reply Sun 11 Dec, 2005 10:20 pm
nimh wrote:
JustWonders wrote:
Reading it reminded me of realjohnboy's comments about how the Democrats are trying to move to the center.

Delicious irony.


<starts reading>

Quote:
IN WASHINGTON, Democrats are challenging the nomination of Samuel A. Alito Jr. to the Supreme Court because he opposes abortion. In Pennsylvania, those same Democrats are working to help Robert P. Casey Jr. topple Republican Senator Rick Santorum -- because Casey opposes abortion.


<screeches to halt>

Hel-lo... it is quite a different issue where a future Judge on the Supreme Court stands on abortion than where a Senator stands.


I agree. And on another topic, there seem to be many reasons that voters oppose Santorum...
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Dec, 2005 02:31 pm
Welcome, Jonsey, to A2K and this thread.
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JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Tue 13 Dec, 2005 03:45 pm
This is kinda interesting:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/columnist/wickham/2005-12-12-wickham_x.htm

Personally, I don't think it will make much of an impact either way, but I wonder if the residents of, say, NH would balk at the idea of not being first (or second). Nah.
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 26 Dec, 2005 07:01 pm
Since we last met: Oil prices have come down a bit and Mr Rumsfeld has been to Iraq and Afghan and declared that troop levels there might come down (but I thought I heard him say combat troops, not total troops).
A very contentious Congress beat themselves and each other to a pulp, but what did they actually accomplish before getting out of town on Chistmas Eve? Not much. And when they come back, there will be the Patriot Act, a Supreme Court nomination and the growing story of this administration's use of surveillance.
Mr Bush's approval rating rose recently, from the high 30's to the mid 40's. Is he destined to be the proverbial lame duck for his remaining time? I think he may be. History, it seems to me, has not been kind to Presidents in their second term.
As I mentioned before, come January we will see, I think, a realignment in both the Republican and Democrat parties. Each of them trying to move towards the middle.
Nothing really new here. I just wanted to keep this thread going.
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Mortkat
 
  1  
Reply Tue 27 Dec, 2005 02:32 am
Realjohnboy- With regard to the President's Approval Rating- Check out Rasmussen Reports- Today President Bush has a 49% Job Approval Rating. His use of the "bully pulpit" apparently raised his rating.

The most cogent article I have read on the topic of the 2006 off year elections is a piece by Morton Kondracke---I am sure that most on these threads know that tradition tells us that the party in power usually loses seats in off year elections( The GOP did not lose seats but rather gained them in both houses in the off year election of 2002---

Kondracke's piece centers around the report by Fair Vote( an organization devoted to vote reform) which said that BECAUSE OF THE THOROUGH GERRYMANDERING BY BOTH PARTIES TO CREATE SAFE DISTRICTS, there would only be about 30 House seats which would be competitive in November 2006.
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Dec, 2005 05:05 pm
Point noted, Morkat. Welcome to this thread. I will try to have time for a comment tomorrow.
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JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Dec, 2005 11:58 pm
realjohnboy wrote:
Mr Bush's approval rating rose recently, from the high 30's to the mid 40's.


Yes. It seems to tick up a bit with the revelation of each new "leak".

Is there nothing Karl Rove can't do? Smile

realjohnboy wrote:
Nothing really new here. I just wanted to keep this thread going.


Well, thanks. I especially appreciate your new posting style.

<That third-person stuff was kinda creepy>
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 Apr, 2006 12:32 pm
Hi, everyone. Nimh started this thread a bit early. But now it is April; seven months before all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and a third of the 100 Senate seats will be contested.
Contested is the wrong word in many of the races. Thanks to successful gerrymandering over the years (by both parties) some seats are highly unlikely to move from one party to the other. But there still will be some interesting races, and I look forward to hearing yall's reports on them.

The specific news out today is that Katherine Harris, a Republican state legislator in Florida who is running for US Senate against a Democrat incumbent, woke up to discover that all of her core staff had quit. You remember Ms Harris from the role she played in Mr Bush's election victory in Florida. It looks like the wheels just came off of her campaign wagon.

The immigration issue is now before the Senate. The House passed a bill that was quite restrictive. The public didn't pay a lot of attention. There were other things going on and some of the votes were perhaps political posturing knowing that the Senate would come up with a different bill. But now the Senate is debating it and I suspect that a lot of members of the House and not a few Senators wish, and will work on, making this issue go away until after the election. The public is now much more aware of the issue and it is certainly unclear to me what, if any, consensus there is.

Anyway, I thought I would dust this thread off in order to get it up to speed. My personal preference is that it be reportorial rather than editorial. But I have no control over that. It will go where it goes. Thank you for telling us about some race in your area. -johnboy-
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Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 Apr, 2006 12:50 pm
Harris was discussing with her advisors what might be some of the hot button issuesi n 2006. One aide said "Irag" Kathy thought he said "a rack" and promptly went out and got one!

http://webpages.charter.net/timandlauren/harris.png
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Apr, 2006 06:26 pm
Time to dust off this thread. I was learning this weekend about the US Senate race in Missouri. The incumbent is John Talent (Republican). He is a Bush conservative; following Mr Bush's lead on many issues.
His challenger is Claire McCaskill (Democrat).
The issues that seem to be on people's minds at this stage appear to be:(1) health care (2) immigration and (3) stem cell research.
I was surprised about the the last one and that Iraq didn't make the top three. Apparently there will be a ballot initiative on the stem cell issue and Mr Talent could get bruised. Staunch conservatives don't want to allow it and he needs their votes but moderate conservatives are less adamant about the topic. He has yet to take a position.
Right now the polls show it as being very close.
By the way, our Congress came back from two weeks of Easter vacation to find the immigration thing still confronting them. They wish the issue would go away until after November, 2006, and perhaps they can send it out for "further study."
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 20 May, 2006 05:39 pm
realjohnboy wrote:
Hi, everyone. Nimh started this thread a bit early.

Heh. I started this thread for the Senate and House races in the previous elections, in fact - those of 2004 ;-).

But thanks to the neutral title, we can indeed still keep on using it for these ones, of course.

This NYT article I think is a great overview and mood sample on the primary race Lieberman will face against Ned Lamont:

Lieberman's Support for War Leaves Him Embattled on Left

Some quotes:

-> Liberals flocking to Connecticut from around the country to help Lamont

Quote:


-> A case of "Democratic cannibalism"?

Quote:
Many Democrats assert that the vigorous challenge to Mr. Lieberman is overshadowing the governor's race and taking money and attention away from three closely contested House races in Connecticut that many strategists consider crucial to the Democrats' majority hopes.

"It's absolute Democratic cannibalism," said John F. Droney, a former Democratic state chairman in Connecticut.


-> Lieberman rattled

Quote:
The liberals' campaign is clearly rattling Senator Lieberman, who has not faced a serious primary challenge in his three terms [..].

He has been cold-calling scores of state party delegates who will meet to endorse a candidate on Friday. He is boasting of union endorsements and interest groups he once took for granted. He has already run commercials and mailed letters to delegates from prominent Democrats like Senators Hillary Clinton and Harry Reid to remind voters of his liberal record on issues like the environment, abortion rights and gay rights.


-> Support for Lamont comes from many quarters

Quote:
"Connecticut's a progressive state," Mr. Lamont said at a fund-raiser in the home of a Yale professor in North Haven on Sunday. "You're not going to lose a senator. You're going to gain a Democrat."

A growing cast of prominent activists is backing Mr. Lamont. Markos Moulitsas, who advised the presidential campaign of Howard Dean in 2004 and founded the blog Daily Kos, is appearing in a campaign commercial for Mr. Lamont.

James H. Dean, the brother of Howard Dean and the chairman of the grass-roots group his brother formed in 2004, supports Mr. Lamont. Tim Tagaris, recently the Democratic National Committee's Internet outreach coordinator, has become director of Internet operations for the Lamont campaign.

Even the state's best-known independent, former Gov. Lowell P. Weicker, has announced his support for Mr. Lamont because of Mr. Lieberman's support of the war.

On Tuesday, the National Organization for Women's political action committee endorsed Mr. Lamont, in part because he said, unlike Senator Lieberman, that he would have supported a filibuster to prevent confirmation hearings for Samuel A. Alito Jr. to the Supreme Court.


-> Lieberman has the money and the machine, but in politics-quiet August, liberals' passion might tilt turnout to his opponent

Quote:
At the end of this year's first quarter, the senator had $4.7 million in his campaign account compared with about $375,000 that Mr. Lamont had on hand. The senator has been endorsed by prominent state Democrats and he has long ties with many local party leaders. But those supporters also warn that liberals could turn out in large numbers on Primary Day, making the outcome less than certain.

"[..] if I were in his shoes I wouldn't be taking chances with an August primary," said Al From, the founder and chief executive of the Democratic Leadership Council, a centrist group of which Senator Lieberman is a past chairman. "Because nobody's paying attention, and you don't know who's going to vote."


-> Lamont candidacy not just about the war

Quote:
Mr. Lamont, 52, says his frustrations with Mr. Lieberman solidified in the spring of 2005, when the senator voted to allow a federal court to review the case of Terri Schiavo, the brain-damaged Florida woman whose case drove a national debate over right-to-die issues.


-> Current poll and argument against Lamont's supporters

Quote:
[A] poll by Quinnipiac University released this month [..] showed that 83 percent of Democrats thought going to war was wrong. It also showed Senator Lieberman leading Mr. Lamont, by 65 percent to 19 percent, among registered Democrats.

[..] Mr. From said [..] of the senator's critics: "There's a group in our party that makes a lot of noise and I don't think they've ever won an election. They're trying to take out one of the great statesmen our party has and that's wrong."


Meanwhile, this is what the actual relevant development this weekend was about:

Quote:
This weekend, the 1,607 delegates to the state Democratic party convention will nominate a candidate for the Senate, and Mr. Lieberman is expected to win the nomination handily. But Mr. Lamont will get his name on the ballot for the Aug. 8 primary if he wins 15 percent of the delegates, which many party leaders think is likely. "If he gets 25 percent, that will be sending a real message to Lieberman," said Leland Tolo, a West Hartford delegate who said he would back Mr. Lamont.


On that count, Lamont did far better still than even his supporters had hoped:

Lamont captures third of Democratic delegates

Quote:
Lieberman, 64, who was first elected in 1988, captured 1,004 delegates compared with Lamont's 504 at the Connecticut Expo Center, where many in the sea of delegates shouted "bring them home" in reference to American troops in Iraq.

The 2-1 margin of victory assured Lamont [..] the 15 percent of delegates required for an Aug. 8 primary. [..]

A Stamford native, Lieberman dominated the urban vote, winning 37 of 50 delegates in Stamford, 57 of 69 in his current hometown of New Haven and 43 of 54 in Hartford. [..]

Lamont, who won 19 of Greenwich's 22 delegates, fared well in rural areas with fewer delegates. He won several small towns, including Kent, Bridgewater and Roxbury.

"The official Democratic Party is behind Lieberman," said Edward Krumeich Jr., a Greenwich delegate who supported Lamont. "It's the grass roots that are the Lamont supporters."

Lamont also made a strong showing in medium-sized cities such as New Britain (24 delegates to Lieberman's seven) and Norwalk (14 to eight).
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