Elections in Germany update:No turn to the right, after all!

Thomas wrote:

Leader still a mensch? And that's an argument for PDS/Die Linke over the SPD? Perhaps Walter should give you an update on the people involved.

I know the people, thanks. I dont like Lafontaine. I kinda like Gysi. I like the people they're attracting from the SPD and Greens.

Thomas wrote:

nimh wrote:
I want a party that does actually care about common folk, about those who earn less than average. Who think employee rights, minimum wage and illness benefits are as important or more as solar energy, gay marriage and Dosenpfand. The Greens sometimes seem to care even less than the SPD-top.

Lafontaine and Gysi don't strike me as caring for the common folk. Maybe I could interest you in the "Anarchistische Pogo-Partei Deutschlands"?

Facile response. What do I care whether Gysi is sincere or vain. The line he presents, argues and defends - the line their new party is still all about - is exactly about such issues. The SPD doesnt seem to care much anymore, despite the good will of grassroots folks like Walter - and the Greens even less.

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And yes, if theyd make a chance of crossing the 5% threshold - and I were German - I probably would vote for the Anarchistic Pogo Party Razz

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nimh wrote:

I probably would vote for the Anarchistic Pogo Party

Finally, nimh, a political position we can both agree on.

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politicians of all stripes and in all countries will always promise "a chicken in every pot on sunday". how else are they are going to get elected - by telling the truth perhaps ?
i remember some years ago the canadian conservative party (i'm not a conservative, but have on occasion voted for a conservative candidate) told canadians before the election that the gasoline tax should be increased by "FIVE CENTS A GALLON" (to encourage conservation and make funds available for alternate energy sources). the liberals said "NO WAY ! " .
the conservatives were turfed out of office , the liberals were elected and promptly increased the tax by more than 5 cents. oh yes, they also brought in "wage and price controls" , which before the election they said they would NEVER introduce.
to sum up : we get the government that we want - and then some. hbg

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The chairwoman of the Greens in Parliament, Katrin Göring-Eckardt, lambasted Kirchhof's tax plans. She said they endangered the future of Germany. "Kirchhof's tax model is not a vision but a nightmare", she said, and would make "those who earn little, poorer while driving the state into bankruptcy".

Mixed with the health care payment reforms the CDU is proposing, the "unity tax" will yield a "fierce cocktail": "Those who are weaker will on both counts pay more". The state, meanwhile, will impoverish itself: "Money for child care, education, research will be lacking", even though it is "only with such investments that we will be able to exist in the global competition".

(Source)

Its not just the Greens who are worried, there are doubters in the CDU/CSU itself too. Bavarian state minister Erwin Huber expressed "great doubt" about the plan. He told the Süddeutsche Zeitung: "I personally have great doubts, whether a single tax line can fulfill the conditions of a social state and achievement-oriented tax legislation." CDU vice-chair Christian Wulff meanwhile, currently the most popular politician of the country, said: "A lower, single tax line for all contradicts the German sense of justice."

(Source)

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Remember the election.de forecast of the results by individual electoral district?

They got a new one, as of 27 Aug:

http://www.election.de/img/maps/btw05e_prognose_050827.gif

As you can see, not all that much change ... 3 districts in all changed colour (from blue to red) the past week. Not way enough to keep the right from a majority; something like at least a dozen other districts would have to follow suit (exact number is hard to say because of the Ueberhangmandate).

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Spiegel.online has a nice "toy" here, where you can compare polls etc

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Duh, have to apply for absentee ballot really soon now. Aaaargh!

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Visited our local electoral office (saving postage and given them directly the signed confirmation that the Mrs and I will attend as election committee members in two ballot offices in our village).

I's never thaught that and how many people are going to vote there actually now (as on personal absentee ballot)!

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Oh, you're working in the election committee? Hmmm... Seems I'm gonna miss the whole fun. For once, I really wanted to be in Germany for a Bundestag election, but this whole thing messed up our schedule. Instead, I'm gonna be in the US capital for the German elections... Weird... I feel so globalized.

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We have to elect a new mayor on that day as well - so it isn't really that fun, especially, since it easy could be, we have to sit there again 14 days later as well: for a run-off.

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Heard a nice sketch on the radio today (audio link [in German]).

Summary of the above: we should - regarding the various polls - get a conservative government, with Schröder as chancellor, following the ideas of Die Linke :wink:

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Walter Hinteler wrote:

I's never thaught that and how many people are going to vote there actually now (as on personal absentee ballot)!

I cast my vote today. When some campaigner on the street walks up on you with his sales pitch, it's nice to be able to tell them: "Actually, my vote isn't up for grabs anymore."

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Walter Hinteler wrote:

Heard a nice sketch on the radio today (audio link [in German]).

Summary of the above: we should - regarding the various polls - get a conservative government, with Schröder as chancellor, following the ideas of Die Linke :wink:

Thanks, Walter!

That was funny. Kind of.

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Translated from Spiegel

Quote:

Germans reject Kirchhofs tax plans

[..] According to an opinion poll, 56 percent reject a unitary income tax and the cancellation of all tax deductions, which Paul Kirchhof, the finance expert of the CDU's election campaign team, is proposing.

Only 33 percent of those polled agreed with such a "Flat-Tax", the Forsa-poll in assignment of the magazine "Stern" showed.

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Little change again in the polls; is there a campaign going on at all?

In the ZDF-Politbarometer of the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, today's data compare to last week's as follows:

CDU/CSU 43% (no ch.)
SPD 32% (+2)
Leftists 8% (no ch.)
Greens 7% (-1)
FDP 7% (-1)

Greens losing a percent for the second week in a row, SPD winning for the second week in a row.

Merkel's proposed rightwing government would get 50%, the opposition 47%; compared to 51%/46% last week.

In the ARD Sonntagsfrage by Infratest dimap, today's results compare to last week's as follows:

CDU/CSU 43% (+1)
SPD 32% (+1)
Leftists 9% (no ch.)
Greens 7% (-1)
FDP 6% (-1)

Small parties lose to the big ones; SPD wins a point for second week in a row.

Merkel's proposed rightwing government would get 49%, the opposition 48%; same as last week.

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Again a new forecast of the results by individual electoral district from election.de (well, from 4 Sep already):

http://www.election.de/img/maps/btw05e_prognose_050903.gif

This time there are some changes compared to the week before, though they're hardly shocking. Die Linke is no longer ahead in 8 districts, but just in 5. The SPD goes from 75 to 83, up 8. And the CDU/CSU goes from 215 to 210, down 5.

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Meanwhile, in the first poll to be held after the weekend's TV debate between Schroeder and Merkel, Forsa today has Schroeder's SPD catching up significantly:

CDU/CSU 42%, -1
SPD 34%, +3
Leftists 8%, -1
Greens 7%, n.c.
FDP 6%, -1

That has the proposed "black-yellow" government of right-wing forces down 2 points to 48%, while the left-wing parties win 2 and come to 49%; the first time "in many weeks" this poll has Merkel's forces lacking a governmental majority. (source)

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Quote:

"What we see is Schröder reclaiming disaffected SPD supporters from the pool of the undecided," Manfred Güllner, head of Forsa, said. "It is about personalities, not content."

The poll gave the CDU and FDP a combined vote of 48 per cent, short of the 48.5 per cent required for a parliamentary majority. The SPD, the Greens, and the neo-Communist Left party together totalled 49 per cent.

Since SPD and Greens say they would not govern with the Left party, such an outcome would mean neither centre-right nor centre-left would be able to form a government on their own.

The consequence would be a period of uncertainty as Ms Merkel begins sounding out potential coalition partners on the left, with Mr Schröder acting as caretaker chancellor.

While three-way coalitions are theoretically possible, analysts think the most likely outcome would be a "grand coalition" of CDU, as senior partner, and SPD - without Mr Schröder himself.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/555661aa-1fc0-11da-853a-00000e2511c8,dwp_uuid=d4f2ab60-c98e-11d7-81c6-0820abe49a01.html

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nimh wrote:

Meanwhile, in the first poll to be held after the weekend's TV debate between Schroeder and Merkel, Forsa today has Schroeder's SPD catching up significantly:

CDU/CSU 42%, -1
SPD 34%, +3
Leftists 8%, -1
Greens 7%, n.c.
FDP 6%, -1

That has the proposed "black-yellow" government of right-wing forces down 2 points to 48%, while the left-wing parties win 2 and come to 49%; the first time "in many weeks" this poll has Merkel's forces lacking a governmental majority. (source)

Still, I don't see the SPD and the Greens forming a coalition with the "New Left".... I think they'd rather choose opposition than that kind of coalition...

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Elections in Germany update:No turn to the right, after all!

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