@Olivier5,
Olivier5 wrote:
The EU is primarily a common market, with weak veleities of becoming a "power". In order to get there it will need a common foreign policy and a joint army. Maybe in 50 years, or sooner if NATO collapses.
It certainly started out that way, and was extraordinarily successful at it. However the advocates of "ever close union" have since accumulated a record of overlooking inconvenient outcomes of elections and plebiscites in member nations, replacing them with treaties; bypassed fundamental political issues of sovereignty, and expanded the breadth and depth of its rule largely through judicial and bureaucratic processes. The political contradictions here with several member national governments are becoming evident.
The EU bas been extraordinarily successful ( amazingly so in historical terms) in addressing the problems of European national rivalries and conflicts that largely motivated its creation. However some of the old, underlying cultural and economic factors persist, as evidenced by the North-South economic divide, and something somewhat similar between East and West. As with most highly developed and Western nations, the EU faces a serious demographic challenge, which, combined with its own cultural constraints on assimilation and the hostility of Islamic emigrating populations from the South, has created a very serious set of problems for it.
History hasn't ended, and, in many ways, contemporary Europe still resembles the mid 19th century. There's an ambitious, resentful autocratic reincarnation of Nicholas I running Russia: Germany (writ large) and France dominate the continent; Italy is still restive; and England part of, but not really connected to, it all. To top it off, the Muslim world to the south is (still) in political chaos, restive and largely hostile.
The EU may not have the quiet 50 years you indicated to work out the challenges of internal cohesion and external threats to develop the pan European security and defense capabilities that may be required. Further, the fundamental challenges that have inhibited NATO, namely the economic cost of the social welfare systems in Europe and the resulting unwillingness of EU government to actually meet the military spending goals targeted by themselves, will still operate in any such development.
My perspective here is mostly historical. I've travelled a lot in Europe; like it very much; and have many friends in France, Germany, Spain and Italy. I believe Americans have much more in Common with the French than the British ( we both think we are the center of the world, and that everyone should speak as we do). I don't really have any political animosities (though I suspect Walter thinks I do).
Rome did indeed last a long time, as you said. However that is mostly because they were able to survive successive recreations from the Tarquins to the republic and later to empire. The Empire was vibrant for just three plus centuries. ( The Byzantines lasted a lot longer.)