Brexit. Why do Brits want Out of the EU?

Why Donald Trump is right about Brexit

US president was correct when he said the UK cannot have it every way after it leaves the EU

Cliff Taylor, The Irish Times

It would be tempting to dismiss the comments by Donald Trumpon the prospects of a trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom after Brexit as just part of the usual presidential noise.

Tempting, but wrong. The US president has simply pointed out the obvious: the UK cannot maintain free trade with the European Union and at the same time strike new trade deals with other countries, such as the US. If the UK commits to follow EU rules and regulations in goods and agricultural products, as it said last week that it wants to do, then it will not be able to sign a new and different trade deal with the US .

As Trump put, in his interview with the Sun: “If they do a deal like that, we would be dealing with the European Union instead of dealing with the UK, so it will probably kill the deal.” He half backed away from this yesterday – saying a trade agreement could still be on and backing away from the “ kill the deal” comment. But he was right the first time – if the UK does stay tied to EU rules, there won’t be any point.

The US, for example, would surely push as part of a trade deal with the UK for wider access for its agricultural products to British markets. Whether this would include the much-discussed chlorine-washed chicken is open to question, but the US would certainly look for a relaxation on EU rules currently followed by the UK which cover things such as animal standards, antibiotic use, genetically modified crops and so on. And in the White Paper published this week the UK says it wants to keep these rules.

Global Britain

Trump’s interview has been jumped on by the hard-Brexit lobby, which has been pedalling the nonsense of a new “global Britain”. But they need to be careful, too. Because what Trump has pointed out undermines their case that Britain can have it both ways after Brexit, maintaining something like current trade arrangements with the EU while still signing new deals with countries such as the US. Boris Johnson’s comment – that the UK can have its cake and eat it too – stands exposed as a farce.

And if you have to choose between the certainty of containing free-trade arrangements with the EU, versus the hope of signing new deals with the likes of the US, then there really isn’t any choice at all. The EU market accounts for 43 per cent of all UK exports – and almost half UK exports of goods. The US accounts for 18 per cent.

And the argument goes beyond these figures. On one side, the UK – if it chooses to leave the EU trading bloc – faces big losses in existing markets. The UK financial sector, for example, is up in arms because the White Paper published during the week said Britain would not adopt the EU rule book for services trade.

Meanwhile, the economic gains from a trade deal with the US would not be huge – after all, the two sides trade relatively freely at the moment. As tariff levels – or import taxes – imposed are low, the main gains from a UK/US trade deal would come from changing procedures, rules and regulations. This is complicated, controversial and would take time, and the economic gains would not be huge.

Trade experts say the only way to do such a deal quickly would be for the UK to more or less sign up to US terms – precisely what Trump would want. And remember this is a president now threatening a trade war to get his own way.

Theresa May’s White Paper recognises, in part, the need to stay close to the EU, though whether she can retain support for this is unclear.The deeper we have got into this, the more we understand how complicated and embedded the EU single market and customs union are in the way everything works. And the more it is clear just how difficult leaving would be, never mind recreating a new trading arrangement following Brexit.

Just consider what we have heard this week about preparations if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal. The European Commission is warning about chaos at ports and airports, and civil servants in London have examined putting electricity generators on barges in the Irish Sea to ensure the North still has a supply. And this is before you start doing a full tot of the costs to businesses and consumers.

Trade deal

As the country most exposed to this – apart from the UK itself – Ireland will want the talks to continue. We need a withdrawal deal to be signed and for the transition period – the standstill due to last from March 2019 under the end of 2020 – to come into force. We will then hope that a future favourable trade deal can be negotiated.

The Government will be encouraged that the UK wants to continue free trade in goods and agricultural products with the EU in the long term. However, as we need support on the Border backstop – which must be signed up to in a legal form as part of the withdrawal process – Ireland will have to play a careful hand, recognising the scepticism some other member states will have on parts of the latest plan from London.

Trump has outlined the choice facing the UK clearly – keep free trade with the EU or ditch it in favour of doing new deals with the US and others. The UK can’t have it both ways. Ireland will hope that the UK chooses to keep its trade links with Europe. This would be the logical thing to do. But after a week like we have seen, who could rely on logic winning the argument?

PM reveals president’s Brexit advice was not to negotiate with the bloc at all
[...]
Revealing it for the first time, May said: “He told me I should sue the EU.” Her remarks will be interpreted as a put-down of the president. She indicated she had disregarded the advice: “Actually we’re going into negotiations with them.”

Former education secretary Justine Greening has dealt a blow to Theresa May’s efforts to win support for her Brexit plan, saying it offered the “worst of both worlds” and called for a second referendum.

Ms Greening becomes the first of the prime minister’s former cabinet ministers to call for another referendum on membership of the European Union.

“Having read the detail, this deal is a fudge I can’t support. It’s the worst of both worlds,” she wrote in an article for The Times.
“The only solution is to take the final Brexit decision out of the hands of deadlocked politicians, away from the backroom deals, and give it back to the people,” the article says.

But instead of being given a choice of either leaving the EU or remaining in it, she said a second referendum should not be a “divisive, binary choice”, but instead should include three options: Theresa May’s current plan, remaining in the EU, or leaving with no deal.

She also said the voting system should include first and second preference votes.

Tens of thousands of EU migrants could lose their right to be in the UK after Brexit - and the authorities will not know who they are, a new report warns.

EU citizens must register using an online system to secure "settled status" when the UK leaves next March.

The government has said it expects about 3.5m applications.

But the Migration Observatory said ministers had no precise figures for how many EU citizens were living in the UK and how many plan to stay.

Its latest report said: "A whole host of factors, from lack of awareness to fear of rejection to simple disorganisation mean that some eligible EU citizens will not apply."

Theresa May’s new senior Cabinet ministers are staying away from major EU meetings in Brussels at the start of this week despite a pledge to intensify Brexit negotiations, as turmoil continues to rage at the top of government.

UK diplomats confirmed that Dominic Raab, Britain’s new chief Brexit negotiator, would not be attending the start of his first round of Brexit negotiations on Monday and will be leaving early discussions to civil servants.

His absence from the beginning of the negotiating round – mirroring his predecessor’s approach – comes despite both sides saying they are prepared to “intensify” talks as the October deadline for a deal looms.

Instead of attending the talks Mr Raab is expected to speak on Monday evening at a meeting organised by the right-wing free market think-tank, FREER.

Additionally, neither the new foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt, nor any of his deputy ministers, will be attending Monday’s meeting of the EU’s foreign affairs council. The regular meeting is an opportunity for the 28 ministers to discuss foreign policy issues and it is the first time it is being held since Mr Hunt’s appointment.

LONDON (Reuters) - There will be no second referendum on Brexit, a spokesman for Britain’s Theresa May said on Monday, repeating the prime minister’s belief that her plan for leaving the European Union was the only way to get a deal that meets the government’s aims.

“The British public have voted to leave the European Union. There is not going to be a second referendum ... under any circumstances,” the spokesman told reporters.

Theresa May faced taunts that her Chequers deal is “dead in the water” after caving in to a series of changes to customs rules demanded by pro-hard Brexit Tories.

Plans for the UK to collect duties for the EU – which lie at the heart of the prime minister’s hopes for a deal with Brussels – will only go forward if the EU agrees to collect them for the UK.

There appears to be no prospect of the EU bowing to such a request, apparently throwing the hard-fought Chequers proposals up in the air after just 10 days.

In the Commons, Ms May was accused of “dancing to the tune of the European Research Group” – the 60-80 strong organisation of Brexiteer MPs led by Jacob Rees-Mogg.

“By capitulating to their proposals on the customs and trade bill she is accepting that the Chequers deal is now dead in the water,” said Stephen Kinnock, a Labour MP.

Ms May insisted he was ‘absolutely wrong”, telling MPs: “I would not have gone through all the work that I did to ensure that we reached that agreement only to see it changed in some way through these bills

“They do not change that Chequers agreement.”

Nevertheless, the Brexit white paper – published only four days ago – appeared to rule out a requirement on the EU to agree reciprocal arrangements.

Vote Leave has been fined and reported to the police by the Electoral Commission, after the watchdog found “significant evidence” of coordination with another campaign group, BeLeave.

The commission’s long-awaited report said it had found evidence BeLeave spent more than £675,000 with data firm Aggregate IQ coordinated with Vote Leave, which should have been declared by the Brexit campaign group.

Vote Leave, which was the official designated campaign for Britain leaving the EU during the referendum, exceeded its legal spending limit of £7m by almost £500,000, the watchdog found.

Darren Grimes, the founder of BeLeave, and the Vote Leave official David Halsall have been reported to the police. Vote Leave has been fined a total of £61,000 and Grimes £20,000.

With the UK on course to leave the European Union in March next year, the country faces four possible scenarios.

Leave without a deal ... ... ...

Stay in the EU ... ... ...

Leave without a deal ... ... ...

Hold another referendum ... ... ...