BillRM
 
  1  
Tue 22 Dec, 2015 12:24 pm
@parados,
Whether or not there was problems the world or any part of it did not come to an end or planes did not fall out of the sky or power plants did not melt down anywhere on earth and like climate change the problem was blown out of all proportions.
BillRM
 
  1  
Tue 22 Dec, 2015 12:35 pm
@Olivier5,
Quote:
No, you could do the computation yourself if the problem involves other planets gravitation force. It's too complex then. In fact newtonian mechanics become very hard to calculate as soon as more than 2 bodies are considered. Google "3 bodies problem".


Wrong that what computers are good for using Newton known and simple laws you have the computer calculated all the forces on the asteroid and sum them for very very small time units for all bodies that will have any significant influence.

Any modern desk top computer could do the job.

I remember for the fun of it setting up such problems with a TI-99 computer but it was so damn slow that I needed to run it for a week or two before being able to plot the results out.


With my current desktop once the problem had been set up it should be a matter on a few minutes.to get the results.

Footnote an asteroid mass compared to any of the solar system major bodies is way way too small to be consider a body in a three body problem but in any case any modern computer can deal with three or more body problems with any accuracy that can be wish for.
parados
 
  1  
Tue 22 Dec, 2015 12:52 pm
@BillRM,
Geez Bill because they spent time and money to solve the problem before it happened.

I notice you didn't get hit by a car today because you looked both ways before crossing the street but that doesn't prove that cars don't hit people.
BillRM
 
  0  
Tue 22 Dec, 2015 12:53 pm
@parados,
It was an overblown problem from the beginning.
layman
 
  0  
Tue 22 Dec, 2015 12:56 pm
@BillRM,
This thread is starting to lose my interest. Where's the scary stories, I ask ya!? I reckon Imma hafta head over to youtube to watch some Count Floyd episodes, eh?
parados
 
  2  
Tue 22 Dec, 2015 12:57 pm
@BillRM,
Stepping out into the street in front of a car is an overblown problem since you weren't hit by one.
BillRM
 
  1  
Tue 22 Dec, 2015 01:12 pm
@parados,
The problem was a gold mine for computer consultants and anyone that understand Cobol and such related languages but it was hardly a major problem with or without fixes.

Quote:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2000_problem

Opposing view[edit]
Others have asserted that there were no, or very few, critical problems to begin with. They also asserted that there would be only a few minor mistakes and that a "fix on failure" approach, would have been the most efficient and cost-effective way to solve these problems as they occurred. However, no credible evidence was offered to support these assertions. This opposing view relied on observations based on small users, rather than those large users most seriously affected.
The lack of Y2K-related problems in schools, many of which undertook little or no remediation effort. By 1 September 1999, only 28% of U.S. schools had achieved compliance for mission critical systems, and a government report predicted that "Y2K failures could very well plague the computers used by schools to manage payrolls, student records, online curricula, and building safety systems".[49]
The lack of Y2K-related problems in an estimated 1.5 million small businesses that undertook no remediation effort. On 3 January 2000 (the first weekday of the year), the Small Business Administration received an estimated 40 calls from businesses with computer problems, similar to the average. None of the problems were critical.[50]
The absence of Y2K-related problems occurring before 1 January 2000, even though the 2000 financial year commenced in 1999 in many jurisdictions, and a wide range of forward-looking calculations involved dates in 2000 and later years. Estimates undertaken in the leadup to 2000 suggested that around 25% of all problems should have occurred before 2000.[51] Critics of large-scale remediation argued during 1999 that the absence of significant reported problems in non-compliant small firms was evidence that there were had been, and would be, no serious problems needing to be fixed in any firm, and that the scale of the problem had therefore been severely overestimated.1999.[45]
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  1  
Tue 22 Dec, 2015 01:42 pm
@BillRM,
In other words you need a computer model. The exact same thing you criticize in climatology... There's no essential difference between the asteroid metaphor and climate change.
BillRM
 
  1  
Tue 22 Dec, 2015 02:15 pm
@Olivier5,
Quote:
n other words you need a computer model. The exact same thing you criticize in climatology... There's no essential difference between the asteroid metaphor and climate change.


I know we had gone over this more then once but once more a problem with a very simple equation [newton law] is child play compare to setting up thousands/tens of thousands of complex and high order differential equations to model the climate and where we do not even know enough to created a high percents of those equations to say nothing of not being sure of the constants values and so on.

Such a problem is a few billions times more complex at the very least so it not the same as dealing with an asteroid path.
Olivier5
 
  1  
Tue 22 Dec, 2015 04:17 pm
@BillRM,
A billion times more complex? Cut down on the hyperbole. The basic physics of global warming are simple enough that i was explained the theory in high school, almost 40 years ago. And the climate has been warming ever since.

There is no essential difference between an asteroid and climate. They are both physical systems amenable to scientific understanding and prediction.

Bottom line is : 80% of the scientists in a discipline carry more weight than a small club of economists. If 80% of astronomers agreed the earth is doomed by an asteroid or any other event -- whatever the complexity of the calculus -- you wouldn't compare them with the club of rome.

Or perhaps you would go into denial then too... ?
BillRM
 
  1  
Tue 22 Dec, 2015 04:35 pm
@Olivier5,
The earth is far far from a black body with all manner of interacting feedback systems.. More heat more cloud cover, more ocean surface more CO2 absorption that also depend on other factors such as the oceans temperature that depend on......., more atmosphere water vapor due to increase temperature more snowfall at the south pole and on and on and on some more.

Have you ever ever done any computer modeling of any type?.

Do you know any computer languages?

What is your mathematics background?

In any case, to sum up the earth climate system is indeed a few billions times more complex then newton's ;laws and if you are going to produce any useful models you need a deep understanding of that system.

I had not look at the code of the current climate models but my bet is they fall way short of the needed details and understanding to made meaningful predictions.
layman
 
  1  
Tue 22 Dec, 2015 04:38 pm
@BillRM,
Quote:
I had not look at the code of the current climate models but my bet is they fall way short of the needed details and understanding to made meaningful predictions.


For anyone interested, here is an extended analysis/discussion of climate models.

http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Chapter-1-Models.pdf
BillRM
 
  1  
Tue 22 Dec, 2015 05:00 pm
@layman,
Thank for the links and just thinking of all the interacting systems making up the earth climate I am kind of amaze that anyone would take on the task with any feeling that they could product useful results.

I had a background of taking a small part in an efforts to model the US economic system when I was a student at the UM and so I had some idea of what would be involved in climate modelings.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Tue 22 Dec, 2015 05:08 pm
@BillRM,
"Model the US economic system?"
Really?
BillRM
 
  1  
Tue 22 Dec, 2015 05:28 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Really and the amusing fact was that at the time most of the students who was majoring in Economic did not have must of an mathematics/computer background so the students they found to help work on the project was mainly from the mathematics/computer science/engineering schools.

It was highly interesting work,
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Tue 22 Dec, 2015 06:10 pm
@BillRM,
It seems you never studied macroeconomics.
BillRM
 
  1  
Tue 22 Dec, 2015 06:33 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Quote:
It seems you never studied macroeconomics.


????????????????

Footnote I still have my book Macoeconomic Analysis[an introduction to comparative statics and Dynamics] and it is so old the price was only 11.59 from a 600 level course on the subject.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Tue 22 Dec, 2015 07:31 pm
@BillRM,
I don't have a math background, but studied macroeconomics, statistics, and accounting.
BillRM
 
  1  
Tue 22 Dec, 2015 08:01 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Quote:
I don't have a math background, but studied macroeconomics, statistics, and accounting



As I had said there was almost no or no economics majors taking either the macoreconomic analysis course or working on the modeling project I mention before and I assume that was due to that major, at least at that time, not having the mathematics background to deal with difference equations and arrays and such.

I am also assuming that now days that is no longer true and economic majors are given that level of mathematics background.
0 Replies
 
layman
 
  2  
Tue 22 Dec, 2015 09:30 pm
@BillRM,
Quote:
I am kind of amaze that anyone would take on the task with any feeling that they could product useful results.


Even a long-time lead author for the IPCC, and prominent alarmist, admits the models are worthless for predicting anything, eh?


Quote:
In fact there are no predictions by IPCC at all. And there never have been. [Who knew?] The IPCC instead proffers “what if” projections of future climate that correspond to certain emissions scenarios. There are a number of assumptions that go into these emissions scenarios. They are intended to cover a range of possible self consistent “story lines” that then provide decision makers with information about which paths might be more desirable..There is no estimate, even probabilistically, as to the likelihood of any emissions scenario and no best guess.

Even if there were, the projections are based on model results that provide differences of the future climate relative to that today. None of the models used by IPCC are initialized to the observed state and none of the climate states in the models correspond even remotely to the current observed climate. ...we do not have reliable or regional predictions of climate. But we need them. Indeed it is an imperative! So the science is just beginning.

Kevin Trenberth

Climate Analysis Section, NCAR


http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2007/06/predictions_of_climate.html

They just make up "possible self consistent “story lines," as asked, eh? But, once again:

Quote:
There is no estimate, even probabilistically, as to the likelihood of any emissions scenario and no best guess.



0 Replies
 
 

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