layman
 
  1  
Thu 17 Dec, 2015 03:43 pm
@Setanta,
Quote:
I didn't call you a cracker


Naw, ya didn't. FBM did. But he wasn't talking about me (like you are now). He was talkin bout my speech (as you were, at that time).

Howse come nobody can never stay on a point, I wonder? Most every "response" round this here joint don't seem "responsive" at all. It just hauls out a new topic, and says that's what the guy they're talking to said.

Is your point supposed to be that all southerners talk the same, black or white, that it?
0 Replies
 
layman
 
  1  
Fri 18 Dec, 2015 04:56 am
In order to assess whether or not science is being attacked, you first have to know what science is. Richard Feynman gave a talk addressing the question: "What is science." I think he has some very good points to make.

http://www.fotuva.org/feynman/what_is_science.html

Here's one except:

Quote:
When someone says, "Science teaches such and such," he is using the word incorrectly. Science doesn't teach anything...

Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.


As I understand him, Fenyman says that learning scientific definitions, mathematical formulas, the steps in the so-called "scientific method," etc., is NOT science. Knowing such things does not entail that a person knows anything of substance. Learning them produces "experts," but it is merely "pseudo-science" to use them as a matter of form. That's what he called "cargo cult science."

There are many experts out there, but to be scientific you must believe in their ignorance, Feynman says.

Quote:
Is necessary to learn the words [but] it is not science...It is not science to know how to change Centigrade to Fahrenheit.

It is not easy to understand energy well enough to use [the word] right. [It displays no understanding to say] "energy makes it move." It would be equally well to say that "God makes it move," or "spirit makes it move," or "movability makes it move."


As Ambrose Bierce aptly said:

Quote:
“Education is that which discloses to the wise and disguises from the foolish their lack of understanding.”

0 Replies
 
layman
 
  1  
Fri 18 Dec, 2015 01:49 pm
Anyone interested in elaboration on what Feynman called "cargo cult science" might want to look at this wiki article on the subject: A brief except:

Quote:
Cargo cult science comprises practices that have the semblance of being scientific, but do not in fact follow the scientific method.[1] The term was first used by physicist Richard Feynman during his 1974 commencement address at the California Institute of Technology.

Cargo cults—a religious practice that has appeared in many traditional tribal societies in the wake of interaction with technologically advanced cultures—focus on obtaining the material wealth (the "cargo") of the advanced culture through magical means, by building mock aircraft landing strips and the like.

Feynman cautioned that to avoid becoming cargo cult scientists, researchers must avoid fooling themselves, be willing to question and doubt their own theories and their own results, and investigate possible flaws in a theory or an experiment.... "it's this type of integrity, this kind of care not to fool yourself, that is missing to a large extent in much of the research in cargo cult science."


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_cult_science

In connection with the global warming issue, the head of the IPCC said, way back in 1997, that "the science is settled." Al Gore and others soon made a recurring refrain out of this claim. That displays all the earmarks of what Feynman would call "cargo cult science."
0 Replies
 
Ionus
 
  1  
Sat 19 Dec, 2015 12:03 am
The assault on science is by the GW devotees. There is no way in the world we have accuracy going back any further than satellite measurement. We know the North Polar Ice has melted several times to levels below what it is now, the assault on science is by the fools who MUST believe in AGW.
Olivier5
 
  2  
Sat 19 Dec, 2015 04:42 am
@Ionus,
The data is sound and solid. I doubt you can ever understand it though. Doesn't matter anyway. Even tbough GW has won the scientific debate, the economic forces at play are formidable and they have won in terms of deciding what we do (or don't do) to address the problem.
BillRM
 
  1  
Sat 19 Dec, 2015 06:50 am
@Ionus,
North pole ice melting is great as far as opening up new sea lines are concern and as it is sea ice there are no effect on the world sea level either.

The important ice is not at the north pole but the south pole.
izzythepush
 
  1  
Sat 19 Dec, 2015 06:53 am
@BillRM,
What about Greenland?
0 Replies
 
Ionus
 
  2  
Sat 19 Dec, 2015 08:26 am
@Olivier5,
Quote:
The data is sound and solid.
How long should we collect data to determine a change in any climate? Pick a desert, or a rainforest...how much data is required?

It is obvious you dont understand any of it.
Ionus
 
  2  
Sat 19 Dec, 2015 08:33 am
@BillRM,
There have been major melts in just the last century...two were considered extreme and had everyone screaming climate change.

One in 1922: ‘Extraordinary warmth in the Arctic during the last few years’ — Polar ice sheet to melt down? — Scientists astonished by Arctic warming. Northern United States to become “sub-tropical.” November 2nd, 1922 article in the Washington Post article titled “Arctic Ocean Getting Warm; Seals Vanish and Icebergs Melt”:” The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consul Ifft, at Bergen, Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers, he declared, all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone…Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.”

One in 1935: Russian Ship Sailed 500 Miles From The North Pole In Ice-Free Water catastrophic proportions and people living in lowlands along their shores would be inundated…temps in Arctic had increased 10 deg. F since 1900–an ‘enormous’ rise’

One in 1947 : International Agency Needed To Stop The Arctic Meltdown: The possibility of a prodigious rise in the surface of ocean with resultant widespread inundation if Antarctic ice regions and the major Greenland icecap should reduce at same rate as present melting in Arctic…’

And who can forget 2012: ‘Alarming’ Rise In Arctic Temperatures To Melt Greenland And Flood The Coasts Posted on August 18, 2012 — Ten degrees of warming in Arctic with CO2 at 320 PPM‘

Quote:
The important ice is not at the north pole but the south pole.
Tru dat.
BillRM
 
  1  
Sat 19 Dec, 2015 01:04 pm
@Ionus,
Quote:
One in 1922: ‘Extraordinary warmth in the Arctic during the last few years’ — Polar ice sheet to melt down? — Scientists astonished by Arctic warming. Northern United States to become “sub-tropical.” November 2nd, 1922 article in the Washington Post article titled “Arctic Ocean Getting Warm; Seals Vanish and Icebergs Melt”:” The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consul Ifft, at Bergen, Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers, he declared, all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone…Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.”

One in 1935: Russian Ship Sailed 500 Miles From The North Pole In Ice-Free Water catastrophic proportions and people living in lowlands along their shores would be inundated…temps in Arctic had increased 10 deg. F since 1900–an ‘enormous’ rise’


Interesting and to the point as we have one hell of a short detail base line to judge what is within normal limits of climate flux and what is not.

layman
 
  1  
Sat 19 Dec, 2015 02:11 pm
@Ionus,
Quote:
The assault on science is by the GW devotees.


Are you attacking "science" if you attack pseudoscience? Am I attacking "science" if I try to debunk astrology? Or am I defending science? The astrologists will claim I am attacking science, no doubt.

Richard Feynman, a noble-prize winning physicist, noted some aspects of what he called "pseudo-science" (and also "cargo cult science") that he thought DESERVED attack. Such as:
Quote:

It’s a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty—a kind of leaning over backwards. For example, if you’re doing an experiment, you should report everything that you think might make it invalid—not only what you think is right about it: other causes that could possibly explain your results; and things you thought of that you’ve eliminated by some other experiment, and how they worked—to make sure the other fellow can tell they have been eliminated.

If you make a theory, for example, and advertise it, or put it out, then you must also put down all the facts that disagree with it, as well as those that agree with it...In summary, the idea is to try to give all of the information to help others to judge the value of your contribution; not just the information that leads to judgment in one particular direction or another.


The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool. So you have to be very careful about that. After you’ve not fooled yourself, it’s easy not to fool other scientists. You just have to be honest in a conventional way after that.

I would like to add something that’s not essential to the science, but something I kind of believe, which is that you should not fool the layman when you’re talking as a scientist...to show how you’re maybe wrong, that you ought to do when acting as a scientist. And this is our responsibility as scientists, certainly to other scientists, and I think to laymen.

For example, I was a little surprised when I was talking to a friend who was going to go on the radio. He does work on cosmology and astronomy, and he wondered how he would explain what the applications of this work were. “Well,” I said, “there aren’t any.” He said, “Yes, but then we won’t get support for more research of this kind.” I think that’s kind of dishonest. If you’re representing yourself as a scientist, then you should explain to the layman what you’re doing—and if they don’t want to support you under those circumstances, then that’s their decision.

If you’ve made up your mind to test a theory, or you want to explain some idea, you should always decide to publish it whichever way it comes out. If we only publish results of a certain kind, we can make the argument look good. We must publish both kinds of result. I say that’s also important in giving certain types of government advice. If you don’t publish such a result, it seems to me you’re not giving scientific advice. You’re being used. If your answer happens to come out in the direction the government or the politicians like, they can use it as an argument in their favor; if it comes out the other way, they don’t publish it at all. That’s not giving scientific advice.

...the men in charge of programs at NAL are so anxious for new results, in order to get more money to keep the thing going for public relations purposes, they are destroying—possibly—the value of the experiments themselves, which is the whole purpose of the thing. It is often hard for the experimenters there to complete their work as their scientific integrity demands.

So I wish to you—I have no more time, so I have just one wish for you—the good luck to be somewhere where you are free to maintain the kind of integrity I have described.


http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm

IPCC, 1997: " The science is settled. There can be no debate."
Olivier5
 
  1  
Sat 19 Dec, 2015 02:56 pm
@Ionus,
It depends what you want to know exactly. For instance, we can't predict local climates' future very well. But the global trend is to warming, and there are chances it's gona be pretty bad. Fasten your seat belt.
BillRM
 
  1  
Sat 19 Dec, 2015 03:12 pm
@Olivier5,
Quote:
But the global trend is to warming, and there are chances it's gona be pretty bad. Fasten your seat belt.


There a chance of anything happening such as a supervolcano cutting lose in the next hour and we end up in the next ice age as a result.

There is a chance is completely meaningless unless and until you can but hard hard numbers on that chance.
Olivier5
 
  1  
Sat 19 Dec, 2015 03:20 pm
@BillRM,
I mean: It looks to me like it's gona be pretty bad. Nobody has a crystal ball you know? But from what i gather the evolution will feed itself, with for instance the methane produced by roting permafrost adding to the CO2 and methane we produce.
BillRM
 
  1  
Sat 19 Dec, 2015 03:36 pm
@Olivier5,
Yes I know anything is once more possible but the only thing we know for such is that with or with out mankind the climate will change as it had in the past from the extreme of a far far hotter planet then we have now to a snowball earth.

Hell we just might be keeping a new ice age at bay where New York City is under not water but a few miles of ice instead.
layman
 
  1  
Sat 19 Dec, 2015 03:40 pm
@BillRM,
Quote:
Hell we just might be keeping a new ice age at bay where New York City is under not water but a few miles of ice instead.


Yeah, Bill. NASA says we might be entering a malander (however ya spell it) minimum phase of the sun. The same thing they think caused the "little ice age" a few hundred years ago.
BillRM
 
  1  
Sat 19 Dec, 2015 03:49 pm
@layman,
Humans for some reason can not seems to live with the idea that we just do not know and that is the reason that mankind had come up with the gods and now unproven computer models.

Maybe instead of cutting green house gases we should be having human sacrifices to the climate god instead.
Olivier5
 
  1  
Sat 19 Dec, 2015 04:04 pm
@BillRM,
No, we're heading towards a global catastrophe of our own making. It's quite tragic actually.
BillRM
 
  2  
Sat 19 Dec, 2015 04:26 pm
@Olivier5,
Quote:
No, we're heading towards a global catastrophe of our own making. It's quite tragic actually.


Of course that had been proven beyond question at least in your mind it had been proven.

In my youth mankind was going to either blow ourselves up with nukes or breed ourselves into slow starvation with a small side issue of our placing so must particles into the air from burning fuel that we are bringing on a new ice age.

Oh then there was computer models that declare any serous nuclear war would bring on a nuclear winter lasting decades. Of course those computer models was later found to be to simple in model a nuclear war and no nuclear winter would had have occur.

Mankind seems to love doomsday scenarios with man produce climate change being just the current in favor scenario in a long list of scenarios.
layman
 
  3  
Sat 19 Dec, 2015 04:43 pm
@BillRM,
Quote:
Mankind seems to love doomsday scenarios


Tell me another scary story, Count Floyd!
0 Replies
 
 

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