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likelihood in die throw

 
 
dsross3
 
Reply Thu 12 Nov, 2015 01:59 pm
What is the likelihood of throwing at least 2 fours in 10 throws of a single die?
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Type: Question • Score: 0 • Views: 655 • Replies: 2
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engineer
 
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Reply Thu 12 Nov, 2015 02:12 pm
@dsross3,
The probability of getting no fours is: (5/6)^10
The probability of getting exactly one four is (1/6)(5/6)^9(10!/9!/1!)
Of getting exactly two is (1/6)^2(5/6)^8(10!/8!/2!)

And so forth. This makes the probability table look like:
0 16.2%
1 32.3%
2 29.1%
3 15.5%
4 5.4%
5 1.3%
6 0.2%
7 0.0%
8 0.0%
9 0.0%
10 0.0%

The chance of getting at least 2 fours (or any other value) is 51.5%
dsross3
 
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Reply Fri 13 Nov, 2015 01:44 pm
@engineer,
Thanks for your reply. I am not quite sure I can pull out from your response the general expression, which is what I was really looking for. I tried to keep my question simple, but in fact here is the problem I am dealing with specifically: Consider arrays of 40 blocks assembled from an infinite supply of equal numbers of red, green, white, and black blocks. How many arrays must be developed such that in the ultimate collection of arrays there is a 90% likelihood of at least 2 identical arrays?

Any help would be appreciated. Thanks.
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