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Conditional probability maybe

 
 
stevec
 
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2015 10:18 am
The prof gives his class 15 questions in advance of the exam and announces he will randomly pick seven of the questions to be on the exam.

Joe can correctly answer 9 of the 15. What are the chances that he will be able to answer all 7 of the questions on the exam?
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fresco
 
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Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2015 10:58 am
@stevec,
At a rough guess
9/15 x 8/14 x 7/13 x......x 3/9
(but no guarantee Smile )
stevec
 
  1  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2015 11:12 am
@fresco,
I came up with:

Ways to pick only questions that he can answer = 9x8x7x6x5x4x3 / 7! (because the order doesn't matter)

Total ways to pick 7 questions =15x14x13x12x11x10x9 / 7!

Prob is first divided by the second, which reduces to your answer after eliminating the common factor of 7!.

I explained my answer to my daughter who doesn't understand it and claims there must be a simpler or more intuitive answer
fresco
 
  2  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2015 12:04 pm
@stevec,
Its like picking 7 white balls from a bag of 9 white plus 6 black.
The probability of the first white is 9/15, that of the second is 8/14 and so on.
The combined probability (first AND second AND...) is found by multiplying.
stevec
 
  1  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2015 12:21 pm
@fresco,
Makes sense to me. Thanks.
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