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Possibility of eruption

 
 
Reply Thu 9 Oct, 2014 08:34 pm
Mt. Fuji erupted in 1707 (the last time I belive). It is now more than 300 years ago, but in geological terms 300 years is like a 100 m dash. Hence, what is the likelihood that the volcano is not going to erupt again? Are there movements under us that can suddenly change the odds?
Sorry for my poor English.
 
farmerman
 
  3  
Reply Fri 10 Oct, 2014 07:28 am
@Kumabjorn,
Mt Ontake was a "phreatic" eruption , in that it involved the subsuming pf surface water and NOT any new magma lenses coming up. Mt Ontake was predicted based on a the inflow/outflow hydro budget of captured stream water and precip..
Mt Fuji hs been monitored for a hundred years and so far the Meteorologcal agency involved hasn't published anything alarming.(Theres always some wag predicting doom regarding Mt Fuji)

I recall seeing a French thing about a year ago re: Mt Fuji's "tardiness" in a stress relief eruption but I don't recall any confirmation stuff rom USGS or Canada. There doesn't seem to be any new rising magma that would trigger a series of level"haz alerts"

Sorry, that's all I know about any eventuality
BillRM
 
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Reply Fri 10 Oct, 2014 07:39 am
@farmerman,
Quote:
Sorry, that's all I know about any eventuality


Thanks and that is must more then most of us had known before your kind sharing of your knowledge.
0 Replies
 
mark noble
 
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Reply Fri 10 Oct, 2014 10:31 am
@Kumabjorn,
Mt Fuji's magma-chamber is currently at 1.7 megapascals - Higher than when it last erupted.
I would avoid it until after 2015, if I were you.
It should pop, June 2015.
I'll likely be out by a few days - So avoid it until it pops, as of NOW!
farmerman
 
  3  
Reply Fri 10 Oct, 2014 01:39 pm
@mark noble,
that's about 20 times atmospheric. (atm is about 110K PA) so, for one atmosphere per 10 meters, its like being at a depth of about 700 feet.
We usually get nervous when pressures are in the 10's of GIGApascals.
Im not saying an eruption isn't reportedly due, theres been a projected window of occurrence of +/- 5 years from USGS data in 2011.

So far though, no seismics or harmonics hve been recorded as afr as Im aware.

We could be waiting another 30 years and still only get a relatively mild eruption.
Was there ever any collapse in the 1707 caldera? I don't think so.
0 Replies
 
 

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