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Find the probability of following questions.

 
 
Reply Thu 20 Jun, 2013 11:58 pm
Hi there!, Can somebody help me to solve that questions:

(a) The following schematic diagram, slightly simplified, depicts the process in the manufacturing of aluminum cans.

http://s11.postimg.org/4jrtev777/probability.png

The initial input into the process consists of coiled aluminum sheets, approximately 0.25 mm thick. In cupping process, these sheets are uncoiled and shaped into can bodies. These can bodies are then washed and sent to the printer, which prints the label on the can. Currently there are 3 printers on a line. The printer deposits the can onto pallets. The cans next go to be filled. Some fill lines can accept cans directly from the pallets, but others can accept them only from cell bins. To use these fill lines, the cans must be transported from the pallets to cell bins in a process called depalletizing. The diagram presents a case where there are two fill lines, one of which will accept cans from the pallets, and other of which will not. In filling process the cans are filled, and the can top is seamed on.

Assume that the cupping process has probability 0.95 of functioning successfully for one day, which P(A) = 0.95 and that the other process components have the following probabilities of functioning successfully during a one-day period: P(B) = 0.99, P(C) = P(D) = P(E) = 0.93, P(F) = 0.92, P(G) = 0.94 and P(H) = 0.96. Assume also the components function independently, find the probability that the process functions successfully for one day.

(b) A company transports goods in three ways: air, sea and road. Based on the past records, of the total transported goods, 10% were by air, 30% by sea and 60% by road. It is found that 1% of goods transported by air were damaged, 5% of the goods transported by sea were damaged and 10% of the goods transported by road were damaged. If a good is found to be damaged, what is the probability that it was transported by air?

Thanks in advance...
 
View best answer, chosen by LOLA SOLNCE
markr
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Reply Fri 21 Jun, 2013 12:53 am
@LOLA SOLNCE,
a) A and B must be successful. Any of C, D, and E must be successful (which is one minus the probability that none are successful). Either of F or both G and H must be successful (which is one minus the probability that F is unsuccessful and G or H is unsuccessful).

P(success) = P(A) * P(B) * [1 - (1 - P(C)) * (1 - P(D)) * (1 - P(E))] * [1 - (1 - P(F)) * (1 - P(G) * P(H))]

b) Use Bayes' Theorem. P(A|B) = P(B|A) * P(A) / P(B)
A is shipped by air. B is damaged.
P(B|A) = 0.01 (given)
P(A) = 0.1 (given)
P(B) = 0.1 * 0.01 + 0.3 * 0.05 + 0.6 * 0.1
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