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Probability of something being there or not

 
 
idnaui
 
Reply Wed 6 May, 2015 03:03 am
Hi
I am not even sure if probability can answer this question but I hope it can.
I have 400 numbers which I draw from a barrel one at a time. I am uncertain as to weather or not all 400 are in the barrel ( they might have been stolen) but I am unable to check.
I am trying to calculate the probability that they are all still there as I draw each number.
I am thinking that If I am unable to draw any, then the probability that they are all there is 0% and if I am able to draw 400 numbers then the probability is 100%. The question is, what comes in between the 0% and the 100%. How does my certainty increase as I draw each number. (each number is known if that helps). Ideally I want to increase certainty with the minimum of numbers drawn
Thanks for any help
Chris
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Krumple
 
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Reply Mon 10 Oct, 2016 02:34 am
@idnaui,
The way in which you have worded your question has lead to why no one has responded.

On one hand you have a 50/50 chance of pulling out any number however; that is not the probability. It is 0.25% each pull. The first chance probability of pulling a number is 0.25% which is low. This reveals your question is not constructed very well.

It is not more likely that you will pull a number after each consecutive pull. If that were the case then each pull after the first adds 0.25%. So the second pull would be 0.5% probability.

This is not realistic but it is in line with your question.

What are the odds that a number has been stolen is more percise. After each pull there is a 0.25% chance a number was stolen.

It isnt 100% probability if you pull all 400 numbers with none stolen. This is incorrect use of the wording.

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